Increase In Drought Severity Research Articles

Differential responses of canopy nutrients to experimental drought along a natural aridity gradient.

The allocation and stoichiometry of plant nutrients in leaves reflect fundamental ecosystem processes, biotic interactions, and environmental drivers such as water availability. Climate change will lead to increases in drought severity and frequency, but how canopy nutrients will respond to drought, and how these responses may vary with community composition along aridity gradients is poorly understood. We experimentally addressed this issue by reducing precipitation amounts by 66% during two consecutive growing seasons at three sites located along a natural aridity gradient. This allowed us to assess drought effects on canopy nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in arid and semiarid grasslands of northern China. Along the aridity gradient, canopy nutrient concentrations were positively related to aridity, with this pattern was driven primarily by species turnover (i.e., an increase in the relative biomass of N- and P-rich species with increasing aridity). In contrast, drought imposed experimentally increased N but decreased P concentrations in plant canopies. These changes were driven by the combined effects of species turnover and intraspecific variation in leaf nutrient concentrations. In addition, the sensitivity of canopy N and P concentrations to drought varied across the three sites. Canopy nutrient concentrations were less affected by drought at drier than wetter sites, because of the opposing effects of species turnover and intraspecific variation, as well as greater drought tolerance for nutrient-rich species. These contrasting effects of long-term aridity vs. short-term drought on canopy nutrient concentrations, as well as differing sensitivities among sites in the same grassland biome, highlight the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to future climate change.

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

Abstract. Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004) and future (2071–2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non‐linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1‐day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand.

Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models’ expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified relative to other formulations. This is the case for the use of Hargreaves-Samani and Priestley-Taylor, where future E0 trends are comparatively much larger than for Penman-Monteith. When comparing Penman-Monteith E0 responses between different choices of input variables related to wind speed, surface roughness, and net radiation, we found differences in E0 trends, although these choices had a much smaller influence on E0 trends than did the E0 formulation choices. These methodological choices and specific climate model selection, also have a large influence on the estimation of trends in standardized drought indices used for drought assessment operationally. We find that standardization tends to amplify divergences between the E0 trends calculated using different E0 formulations, because standardization is sensitive to both the climatology and amplitude of interannual variability of E0. For different methodological choices and GCM output considered in estimating E0, we examine potential sources of uncertainty in 21st century trends in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) over selected regions of the CONUS to demonstrate the practical implications of these methodological choices for the quantification of drought risk under climate change.

Soil Water Repellency: A Potential Driver of Vegetation Dynamics in Coastal Dunes

Coastal dunes are valuable and complex ecosystems, meaning that predicting their response to anthropogenic pressure is challenging. A potential driver of complexity that links soil, water, and vegetation dynamics is soil water repellency (SWR). SWR is mainly caused by plant-derived hydrophobic compounds that are released during litter decomposition and leads to dry sandy soils resisting infiltration of precipitation. Until now, studies have focused on soil physical and chemical properties associated with SWR, but the potential of SWR generating soil water-vegetation feedbacks that drive ecosystem dynamics is yet to be assessed. This study assessed the role of SWR on coastal dune ecosystem dynamics by combining field observations and laboratory experiments with theoretical ecological modeling that incorporated the empirically established relationships. We observed large differences in soil infiltration capacity in the field, and the laboratory experiments showed that soil hydrophobic compound concentrations and antecedent soil moisture conditions can explain these differences. Theoretical model analyses suggested that SWR can trigger cyclic vegetation dynamics, including long periods in which vegetation is absent. Water competitive plants with low-hydrophobic compound content (for example, woody species) exhibit stable temporal dynamics, whereas species with opposite traits (for example, grasses) are more likely to induce cyclic dynamics. For the latter species, SWR can amplify drought stress. In northwest Europe, this effect could become more important in coming decades due to the projected increases in drought severity. Our study explains how SWR may contribute to coastal dune ecosystem complexity, providing insights that may aid effective dune conservation and restoration.

Climate change alters plant biogeography in Mediterranean prairies along the West Coast, USA.

Projected changes in climate are expected to have widespread effects on plant community composition and diversity in coming decades. However, multisite, multifactor climate manipulation studies that have examined whether observed responses are regionally consistent and whether multiple climate perturbations are interdependent are rare. Using such an experiment, we quantified how warming and increased precipitation intensity affect the relative dominance of plant functional groups and diversity across a broad climate gradient of Mediterranean prairies. We implemented a fully factorial climate manipulation of warming (+2.5-3.0 °C) and increased wet-season precipitation (+20%) at three sites across a 520-km latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. After seeding with a nearly identical mix of native species at all sites, we measured plant community composition (i.e., cover, richness, and diversity), temperature, and soil moisture for 3 years. Warming and the resultant drying of soils altered plant community composition, decreased native diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities becoming more similar to communities further south. In particular, after two full years of warming, annual cover increased and forb cover decreased at all sites mirroring the natural biogeographic pattern. This suggests that the extant climate gradient of increasing heat and drought severity is responsible for a large part of the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing annual invasion in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south. Additional precipitation during the rainy season did little to relieve drought stress and had minimal effects on plant community composition. Our results suggest that the projected increase in drought severity (i.e., hotter, drier summers) in Pacific Northwest prairies may lead to increased invasion by annuals and a loss of forbs, similar to what has been observed in central and southern California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem functions.

Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI

Using monthly meteorological observation data at 633 sites in China during 1961–2012, the drought severity change has been investigated in terms of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with potential evapotranspiration estimated by the Penman–Monteith equation (SPEI_pm). Significant wetting appeared to have occurred in northwestern corner of China (Xinjiang Province), especially in winter. The middle to northeastern Tibetan Plateau also experienced wetting in the last 52 years in general. Significantly, drying occurred in Central China (mostly in the middle Yellow River basin) and southwestern China (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau) in spring and in autumn. There is no evidence of an increase in drought severity over China taking the whole country into account. On the contrary, the hyper-arid and arid zones got significantly wetter in the last 52 years as indicated by both SPI and SPEI.

A review and modelling results of the simulated response of deforestation on climate extremes in eastern Australia

The native vegetation cover in Australia has been modified extensively since the advent of European population. This was paralleled by increases in mean surface temperatures, decreases in mean rainfall and persistence of long-lasting and severe droughts, especially in eastern Australia. The purpose of this article is twofold: (1) to review the simulated response of deforestation on Australian droughts in light of the physics of land-surface processes, (2) to provide further analysis of the modelling results from the CSIRO Mark 3 Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) to quantify the changes in Australian droughts from the pre-European to modern-day land cover conditions. The simulated response for the austral summer for the modern-day period showed (1) a shift in the tails of the probability distribution functions of rainfall and temperature towards drier and warmer conditions, (2) a decrease in average rainfall between ~4–12%, (3) a reduction in average soil moisture by ~40%, (4) an increase dry spells by ~3–4days, (5) a decrease in cumulative wet day rainfall between 10 and 25mmday−1, (6) an increases in drought duration by ~6–12 consecutive days and an increase in drought severity by ~4–8%, (7) an average warming of ~0.4–3.6°C, and an increase in dry spells by ~6–9days for the 1982/83 El Niño event. These changes were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level using the non-parametric bootstrapping procedure. The simulated changes in atmospheric variables indicate that deforestation has been a contributing factor to the observed increases in drought severity and duration in eastern Australia.

A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Abstract The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI), but it includes the role of temperature. Because the SPEI is based on a water balance, it can be compared to the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). Time series of the three indices were compared for a set of observatories with different climate characteristics, located in different parts of the world. Under global warming conditions, only the sc-PDSI and SPEI identified an increase in drought severity associated with higher water demand as a result of evapotranspiration. Relative to the sc-PDSI, the SPEI has the advantage of being multiscalar, which is crucial for drought analysis and monitoring.

Soil moisture and plant growth responses to litter and defoliation impacts in Parkland grasslands

Soil moisture can limit plant production in cool-temperate grasslands, particularly under recent increases in drought severity and predictions of future climate change. This necessitates research that examines moisture mitigation strategies under the dominant land use of grazing. We examined the effectiveness of plant litter in regulating soil moisture dynamics and associated plant production in a native grassland and tame pasture in the Aspen Parkland of Alberta, Canada during 2007/2008, specifically testing (1) how litter and defoliation (as a surrogate for grazing) alter the micro-environment at the soil surface, (2) whether litter, in combination with defoliation, alters forage production, and (3) whether production changes can be linked to observed micro-environmental changes created by litter modification. The full factorial randomized complete block design consisted of three litter treatments (litter removal, in situ control, and double litter) and three defoliation treatments (undefoliated control, light defoliation to 6.5 cm stubble height, and heavy defoliation to 2.5 cm). Soil moisture levels were assessed over four periods after summer precipitation to examine soil moisture depletion. Plant phenological development and canopy cover were also assessed throughout 2007, and biomass was measured in August 2007 and 2008. Abundant litter (up to 14,000 kg ha −1) improved soil moisture levels in both native and tame grasslands by either maintaining higher absolute moisture levels or reducing total moisture loss after rainfall. Both litter removal and double litter reduced total growing season production compared to in situ levels at the Native Site, despite highest vegetation cover in litter removal plots. High litter levels also improved growth of individual grass tillers at this site, but negatively impacted sexual production. Conversely litter removal improved overall production at the Tame Site, although litter did enhance grass tiller recovery following mid-season defoliation at both sites, in part due to positive influences on soil moisture. Treatment effects on plant production were less pronounced in 2008 than in 2007. Overall, high litter levels improve soil moisture retention and can improve or stabilize plant production particularly in native prairie sites, and can provide an important drought management strategy in the Aspen Parkland.

Effects of Drought on Photosynthetic Performance and Water Relations of Four Vigna Genotypes

The effect of drought on plant water relations and photosynthesis of Vigna glabrescens (Vg) and Vigna unguiculata (cvs. 1183, EPACE-1 and Lagoa), which differ in their drought resistance, was compared. With the increase of drought severity, Vg showed a more gradual stomatal closure and maintained significantly higher levels of stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthetic activity (PN) than the other genotypes even when minimum relative water content (RWC) values were observed. Furthermore, Vg was the only genotype able to accumulate significant amounts of proline already under moderate water deficit, what could explain the lower osmotic potential (ψs) values observed in these plants. The three V. unguiculata cultivars presented a similar stomatal control under increasing water deficit. A mesophyllic impairment of photosynthetic capacity (Pmax) was detected for cv. 1183 from the beginning of drought onset (85-75 % RWC) while in the Vg plants the values remained unaffected along the whole drought period, indicating that PN decrease observed in this genotype is mainly a consequence of stomatal closure. Such Pmax maintenance suggests the existence of a high mesophyllic ability to cope with increasing tissue dehydration in Vg.