Increase In Domestic Demand Research Articles

Revealing the significant acceleration of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions in eastern Asia through long-term atmospheric observations

Abstract. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are powerful anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) with high global-warming potentials (GWPs). They have been widely used as refrigerants, insulation foam-blowing agents, aerosol propellants, and fire suppression agents. Since the mid-1990s, emissions of HFCs have been increasing rapidly as they are used in many applications to replace ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) whose consumption and production have been phased out under the Montreal Protocol (MP). Due to the high GWP of HFCs, the Kigali Amendment to the MP requires the phasedown of production and consumption of HFCs to gradually achieve an 80 %–85 % reduction by 2047, starting in 2019 for non-Article 5 (developed) countries with a 10 % reduction against each defined baseline and later schedules for Article 5 (developing) countries. In this study, we have examined long-term high-precision measurements of atmospheric abundances of five major HFCs (HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-32, HFC-125, and HFC-152a) at Gosan station, Jeju Island, South Korea, from 2008 to 2020. Background abundances of HFCs gradually increased, and the inflow of polluted air masses with elevated abundances from surrounding source regions were detected over the entire period. From these pollution events, we inferred regional and country-specific HFC emission estimates using two independent Lagrangian particle dispersion models and Bayesian inversion frameworks (FLEXPART-FLEXINVERT+ and NAME-InTEM). The spatial distribution of the derived “top-down” (measurement based) emissions for all HFCs shows large fluxes from megacities and industrial areas in the region. Our most important finding is that HFC emissions in eastern China and Japan have sharply increased from 2016 to 2018. The contribution of East Asian HFC emissions to the global total increased from 9 % (2008–2014) to 13 % (2016–2020). In particular, HFC emissions in Japan (Annex I country) rose rapidly from 2016 onward, with accumulated total inferred HFC emissions being ∼ 114 Gg yr−1, which is ∼ 76 Gg yr−1 higher for 2016–2020 than the “bottom-up” (i.e., based on activity data and emission factors) emissions of ∼ 38 Gg yr−1 reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is likely related to the increase in domestic demand in Japan for refrigerants and air-conditioning-system-related products and incomplete accounting. A downward trend of HFC emissions that started in 2019 reflects the effectiveness of the F-gas policy in Japan. Eastern China and South Korea, though not obligated to report to the UNFCCC, voluntarily reported emissions, which also show differences between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates, demonstrating the need for atmospheric measurements, comprehensive data analysis, and accurate reporting for precise emission management. Further, the proportional contribution of each country's CO2-equivalent HFC emissions has changed over time, with HFC-134a decreasing and HFC-125 increasing. This demonstrates the transition in the predominant HFC substances contributing to global warming in each country.

Import Constraints

During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, international shipping and logistics capacity was strained, limiting the quantity of imports. We investigate the impact of an import constraint on inflation, following an increase in domestic demand. Whether the binding import constraint raises inflation depends on how it affects trade intermediation costs. If the binding constraint raises trade costs, then import price inflation also increases. In this case, however, foreign producer price inflation falls and import quantities rise more for inputs than final goods. Both these model results appear counterfactual, which suggests that import constraints may not explain observed import price inflation.

The Growth and Export Competitiveness of Cotton in India

Cotton production is of paramount importance in India due to its significant impact on various aspects of the country's economy, agriculture, and society. This paper studied the Growth, Instability, and export potentials of cotton in India. This is based on secondary data and data analyzed for three periods viz., Period I (1959-60 to 1978-79), Period II (1979-80 to 1998-99), and period III (1999-00 to 2018-19). The study revealed that the growth of production and productivity of cotton in India increased from periods 1 to 3. The overall period bare that the production growth rate of cotton in India increased significantly by 3.5 percent annually, which is because the productivity rate increased significantly by 2.75 percent per annum, whereas the area also increases significantly at a rate of 0.72 percent annually. The relative contribution of area and price effect was positive with high output growth of cotton due to the development of many policies related to area extension and price policy by the government. The RSCA value in 2012 was -0.02 to -0.08, which would be attributed to an increase in domestic demand and a reduction in ambiguity. The results of RCA revealed that India is leading Agriculture Institutions and state Agriculture Universities should focus on developing as high yielding varieties of cotton for cotton export. The government should also support farmers to increase the export and production of cotton in India.

Peru’s energy policy in the context of energy transition

We examine the evolution of Peru’s energy strategy in the context of global energy transition trends. In the last decade, Peru’s energy sector has been actively developing due to an increase in domestic demand caused by the country’s economic growth. At the moment, the country is facing the task of expanding its energy system to ensure access to energy and at the same time its modernization in the context of the global climate agenda. The risks caused by climate change can have a significant negative impact on the ecosystem of Peru and pose serious threats to the future economic development of the country. Authors analyze the current state and prospects of the energy sector, which is the main engine of national economic growth and a significant factor for poverty eradication. We discuss the foundations of the state energy development strategy, the role of the climate agenda, and the specifics of renewable energy project regulation. Authors conclude that Peru has significant potential both in the field of traditional hydrocarbon energy, including LNGs, and in the field of clean energy. In addition to solar and wind power, Peru also has significant potential for the development of hydrogen and biomass energy. Of particular importance for the country is the gas industry, which has received a serious impetus for development in connection with the implementation of a major Camisea project. During the transition period, gas can partially replace the use of oil in industry, housing and electricity generation, thus contributing to the process of decarbonization. The choice of strategic priorities will determine the country’s energy architecture in the medium and long term.

Dynamic and structure of GDP and investments

Internal epidemiological restrictions and external shocks have had a significant impact on economic growth in Russia. Unfavorable changes in the global market environment increased the impact of external factors on economic dynamic: starting from 2019, the scale of exports in terms of value and physical volume decreased; the decline in the contribution of net exports to GDP dynamics was partially offset by an increase in domestic demand on the back of the outstripping growth of manufacturing industry and the segment of paid services to the population. From the outset of the spread of coronavirus infection, there was a simultaneous reduction in demand and supply in the domestic market. The situation was complicated by a drop in demand and prices on the world market of hydrocarbons, which came amid a decline in the ruble exchange rate and an increase in the level of inflation. The negative effects of the uncertainty and potential risks of the pandemic affected the nature of business structures, consumer behavior, and led to changes in the structure of government spending, the corporate sector, households, and the demand for financial resources

УПРАВЛІННЯ ДЕТЕРМІНАНТАМИ КОНКУРЕНТНОЇ ДЕВАЛЬВАЦІЇ: ТЕОРЕТИЧНІ ТА ПРАКТИЧНІ АСПЕКТИ

Анотація. Присвячено дослідженню теоретичних і практичних аспектів управління детермінантами конкурентної девальвації, зокрема її сутності, інструментів її реалізації, а також позитивним і негативним наслідкам її впливу на економіку країни, яка її реалізує, і торговельних партнерів цієї країни. Визначено, що конкурентна девальвація є навмисною девальвацією валюти, ініційованою (і офіційно, і неофіційно) центральним банком з метою зниження вартості експортних товарів для іноземних покупців, таким чином сприяючи розвиткові внутрішнього виробництва, розв’язанню проблеми безробіття i зниженню дефіциту платіжного балансу. Визначено, що найбільш відчутно вплив конкурентної девальвації проявляється в таких секторах економіки країни: зовнішньоторговельний, промисловий, аграрний, фінансовий і сектор послуг. У результаті дослідження встановлено, що ступінь ефективності конкурентної девальвації для стимулювання економічного зростання країни детермінується такими факторами: структура зовнішньої торгівлі, частка імпортованої сировини і комплектуючих у вартості готової продукції, зовнішньоторговельні барʼєри, темпи економічного зростання в інших країнах, еластичність попиту на експортну продукцію, поширеність фіксованих контрактів на сировину та інструментів хеджування ризиків, ефект J-кривої. Виокремлено позитивні і негативні наслідки конкурентної девальвації для країни, яка її реалізує, та її торговельних партнерів. Очікуваними позитивними результатами для країни, що девальвує свою валюту, є зростання обсягів експорту і підвищення внутрішнього попиту, що повинно сприяти вищому рівню зайнятості та економічному зростанню. Серед негативних наслідків конкурентної девальвації такі: зниження купівельної спроможності населення, здорожчання імпорту і зменшення його обсягів, зростання рівня інфляції; зростання вартості обслуговування боргів, номінованих в іноземній валюті; зниження обсягів іноземних інвестицій; стримування науково-технічного розвитку та відплив висококваліфікованої робочої сили за кордон. Ключові слова: конкурентна девальвація, валютна війна, валютний демпінг, економічна політика, економічне зростання. Формул: 0; рис.: 2; табл.: 0; бібл.: 31.

Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach

Applying an asymmetric model, the study reported no evidence of J-curve phenomenon in case of India. In the short-run currency appreciation deteriorates the trade balance and currency depreciation improves it. In the long-run, again the similar response is observed, however, only the impact of currency depreciation is statistically significant. Increase in domestic demand deteriorates the trade balance by a greater magnitude than improvement is observed due to the decline in domestic demand conditions. Finally, foreign demand hike improves the trade balance relatively by a higher magnitude; however, the impact of a foreign demand decline is statistically insignificant.JEL Codes: F4, F41, F42

Demand-led catch-up: a history-friendly model of latecomer development in the global green economy

AbstractThis article examines the role played by demand in catching up and in leadership changes in green industries, motivated by the belief that demand-led catch-up is a prevalent pathway in such industries. The article first examines stylized cases of sectoral green catch-up by China in which the local market and domestic demand played an important role before the sector started expanding globally. In particular, the focus is on three industries: wind, biomass and hydropower. Then, it uses a history-friendly model to study the effects of a major increase in domestic demand (a “demand window”) in a green industry. The baseline simulation first examines the effects of a demand window in promoting learning and capability building by latecomers and in triggering a catch-up process. Then, the counterfactual simulations show that (i) a technological discontinuity which takes place after the demand window could reduce the effectiveness of the demand window in the catch-up process; (ii) the specific timing of the demand window could significantly alter the dynamic patterns of catch-up; (iii) protectionism is a necessary condition for the demand window to have its effect; and (iv) regimes of slow capability accumulation could turn out to be beneficial for the latecomer when a technological discontinuity follows the demand window. These results can help policymakers in identifying key conditions related to demand-led catch-up strategies.

Are current accounts driven by cost competitiveness or asset prices? A synthetic model and an empirical test

AbstractWhile current account imbalances have widened in recent decades, their causes are still debated. Trade-centred approaches highlight the role of cost competitiveness, in particular unit labour costs, and aggregate demand. In contrast, finance-centred approaches focus on gross financial flows, driven by expectations and the return on assets, that impact demand and the exchange rate. This article, first, builds a simple model of the current account that provides a synthesis between the two approaches. Unit labour costs impact the current account via the real exchange rate and income distribution, while financial inflows drive up asset prices, which leads to nominal appreciation and an increase in domestic demand. Second, we estimate a reduced form of this model for 28 OECD countries from 1972 to 2014, controlling for both trade- and finance-centred channels and a wide range of control variables. Our results indicate that finance-centred channels, via equity and residential property prices, drove current account divergence in the OECD, while unit labour costs were less important. They suggest that the effects of gross financial flows deserve more attention in theoretical and empirical models of the current account.

Study Assesses Incentives, Development Strategies for Peruvian Mature Heavy Oil

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 196217, “Assessment of Government Incentives and Development Strategies To Revitalize Mature Heavy-Oil Fields in the Peruvian Jungle,” by Nosser A. Jurado, SPE, National Bank Financial, and Victor A. Huerta, SPE, Universidad Nacional de IngenerÍ​​​​​​​a, prepared for the 2019 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Calgary, 30 September–2 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Mature heavy-oil fields in the northern Peruvian jungle have produced oil for more than 40 years under primary recovery mechanisms (cold methods). The complete paper explores technical and economic development options to produce heavy-oil resources at commercial rates and showcases three optimization scenarios of higher recovery efficiency aimed at increasing net present value at the basin level. Introduction The constant decline of medium- and light-oil production in most Peruvian fields in recent years, along with the increase in domestic demand, indicates that innovative redevelopment strategies should be implemented for recent large heavy-oil discoveries in the Marañon Basin. The Norperuano pipeline in its current condition and egress capacity allows exploitation of proved developed producing volumes of Blocks 64, 192, 8, and 95 but constrains the commerciality and development possibilities for Block 67 (Piraña, Dorado, and Paiche fields) and Block 64 (Situche field), which jointly could pro-duce up to 70,000 B/D between 2027 and 2029. The main issue is the present constraint for transportation and blending of heavy oil and diluents. Therefore, an infrastructure revamp is necessary. The authors believe that capital expenditure (CAPEX) to carry out these improvements and expansions is necessary and must be addressed between the operators in the area and the Peruvian government while considering all social and current environmental issues. Analysis of Production Performance and Recovery Most Peruvian heavy-oil fields have been discovered in the Marañon Basin. Production history indicates a strong water-drive mechanism by which oil production declines as water rate increases, while reservoir pressure is sustained with a less than 20% pressure decrease. Generally speaking, Marañon wells have been drilled following slant trajectories and are only completed with slotted liners without a selective completion. Consequently, no method exists to isolate water zones or encroachment, and oil productivity and relative permeability to oil decrease rapidly as water cut increases. Horizontal wells have been proposed for the Bretaña heavy-oil field in Block 95. This field is similar to the Jibaro and Jibarito fields in Block 192, with completions featuring autonomous inflow-control devices (AICDs) to delay water breakthrough while improving production performance and increasing oil recovery. Another alternative suggested to increase recovery factor and prevent water breakthrough is dual completion with electrical submersible pumps (ESPs). This completion type has been envisioned for Block 192. On a well-by-well basis, increasing the recovery factor by implementing new technologies is possible. On a transportation-and-gathering basis, however, issues remain in the basin. A production deferment of at least 7% has been the result of several factors, including a lack of appropriate well-service programs to replace ESPs and clean boreholes, inadequate infrastructure, deteriorating roads accessing the fields, the lack of a supply-change-management program, and a lack of appropriate management of social and environmental issues. CAPEX allocations to the Norperuano pipeline would minimize this problem at the basin level and might solve delay issues at the field level for all blocks.

Тrends and prospects of meat market development in Ukraine

The purpose of the article is to analyse the main performance indicators of the functioning and development of the meat market and to assess the prospects for its development, from the standpoint of providing it with raw meat. The research uses the following methods: analysis and synthesis, analytical generalizations, graphic - in the analysis of the meat market; balance - in determining the market equilibrium of supply and demand, their changes and interactions, statistical, extrapolation, design, mathematical modelling, decomposition of the time series - in forecasting the development of the meat market. The main trends and features of the functioning and development of the meat market are determined, based on the analysis of component indicators, a slight but still increase in the total supply of meat and meat products, by increasing its own meat production by 5.2% which ensured an increase in domestic demand. Based on the current balance of supply and demand of meat and meat products in Ukraine as indicators of market efficiency, the level of consumer security of meat consumption in Ukraine is determined, and it is established that the level of income is the basic condition for consumption growth. In the framework of this study using the method of exponential smoothing with a damped trend, the calculation of forecast indicators of the balance of supply and demand of meat and meat products in Ukraine. Methodological approaches to forecasting the meat market have been further developed. The results of the study can be used by experts to assess the level of development of the meat market, government officials in choosing areas of regional and public policy, researchers to expand the scope of research.

Innovative revival of the mining and metallurgical complex of Ukraine as the imperative of national competition policy

Methods. The results are obtained with the following methods: analysis and synthesis in the identifying main actual problems of the Ukrainian mining and metallurgical complex (MMC) and in the studying the reasons for the gradual loss of its competitive advantages; structural analysis for research of the technological interactions of metallurgical and mining components of the MMC, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modelling methods were applied in exploring the leading trends in the development of the national MMC and dynamics of its positions in global markets of ore metals and metal products. Results. The main reasons for the negative tendencies in Ukrainian MMC development, for concomitant weakening of its international competitive advantages and the displacement of domestic exporters from the most dynamic high-tech segments of the world metal products market are identified and substantiated. It is empirically proven that despite the crisis situation, MMC is still the leading «driver» of the national industry and plays a crucial role in filling the income of the trade balance of Ukraine. The conceptual bases of the model of active state intervention in the processes of functioning and development of Ukrainian MMC are developed. Its strategic and tactical tasks, forms and instruments of implementation are discovered. The prerequisites for innovative renewal and technological modernization of MMC enterprises in the conditions of global competition are disclosed, in particular the mechanisms of their direct investment and budgetary state support are proposed. Taking into account the technological interactions (producer and consumer) of MMC constituents, the increase in domestic demand for metallurgical products a priori will become a powerful catalyst for the mining industry and will slow down inefficient and threatening for the future the export of depleting natural resources. Novelty. There are proposed the measures aimed at revitalizing innovation and investment activity in the Ukrainian MMC with a focus on stimulation domestic demand for metal products within the framework of import-substitution policy. Recommendations were developed with bearing in mind the specifics of non-tariff neoprotectionism and the peculiarities of technological interactions between mining and metallurgical MMC’s components. Practical value. The obtained results will contribute to the improvement of the state industrial policy aimed at the development of Ukrainian mining and metallurgical complex, innovative strengthening of its international competitive advantages and overcoming the «resource curse» of the commodity economy.

Development of seaweed cultivation in Latin America: current trends and future prospects

ABSTRACTSeaweed farming has now expanded across several continents from South East Asia to South America, Northern Europe, Canada and East Africa, contributing to global food security, supporting rural livelihoods, alleviating poverty and improving the health of oceans. Latin America (LA) covers a vast geographical area, which includes four different oceanic domains (Temperate Northern Pacific, Tropical Eastern Pacific, Temperate South America and Tropical Atlantic) and encompasses many types of coastal ecosystems with a wide range of seaweed species. LA has major potential for the development of seaweed farming activities; however, almost all the production is based on the harvesting of natural beds. This review describes the development of and prospects for the aquaculture seaweed industry in LA. The status of the seaweed aquaculture sector for green, brown and red seaweed and the main industry challenges are addressed. Regulation in the primary countries is also discussed. The expansion of the aquaculture industry in this region can be improved with new strains and farming methodologies, diversification of species, market expansion and an increase in domestic demand.

Domestic and export performances of French firms

AbstractThe French trade balance deteriorated almost continuously from the late 1990s to the early 2010s. At the macroeconomic level, French export market share deteriorated while domestic sales kept pace with domestic demand. Does this assessment apply to individual firms? Using microlevel data for French industrial firms over the period 2002–12, we explore the link between domestic and export sales. We show that export and domestic sales have a tendency, albeit slight, to move in opposite directions. This may be due to factors such as deliberate strategies to target a specific market or the presence of production constraints. Addressing the resulting endogeneity issue, our analysis shows that a positive demand shock in the domestic market also leads to an increase in exports. In particular, a 10% increase in domestic demand leads to a 4% increase in exports. This complementarity between markets seems to be driven by small firms and could reflect the existence of liquidity constraints. Increased sales in one market could lessen these constraints by facilitating funding for company development in the export market.

Análise da relação entre o crescimento populacional e o desmatamento no estado do Amapá, Brasil

O estado do Amapá, apesar do histórico de baixo desmatamento, apresenta condições propícias ao ciclo de fronteira que ocorre em outras regiões amazônicas, com o agravante de um vertiginoso crescimento populacional, o qual é apontado como fator de indução direto e indireto do desmatamento. Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa teve como objetivo analisar o grau de influência desse fator de indução e suas consequências no âmbito das mudanças de uso do solo no Amapá. Para isso, primeiramente foi analisado o crescimento populacional no estado e em cada um dos seus 16 municípios, por meio de consultas ao Censo Demográfico dos anos de 1980, 1991, 2000 e 2010. Visando identificar a influência do crescimento populacional no desmatamento, foi realizada a análise de Correlação de Pearson (r). A partir disso foi estimada a taxa de desmatamento até o ano de 2030, utilizando regressão linear. A população do Estado cresceu em apenas 36 anos cerca de 325%, propulsionada pela criação das Áreas de Livre Comércio e a elevação da categoria de Território para Estado em 1988. De maneira similar, entre 2000 e 2014, o desmatamento aumentou 82%. Constatou-se uma forte correlação positiva entre os fatores analisados (r = 0,95), comprovando que o crescimento populacional teve influência direta no desmatamento no Estado do Amapá. Considerando o crescente aumento populacional, estimou-se que o Amapá tende a desmatar mais 134.644ha até o ano de 2030. A forte relação constatada no estudo se dá devido ao aumento da demanda interna por alimentos e produtos florestais para atender as necessidades da população em crescimento, assim como as oportunidades do mercado externo, uma vez que o Amapá foi inserido rota de exportação de commodities.

ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR EGYPTIAN EXPORTS OF GRAPES USING THE MARKET PARTICIPATION MODEL

The main objective of this research is to try to improve thecompetitiveness and increase export efficiency of Egyptian grapes exportsduring the period (0222-0248). To achieve this objective, the following subobjectives were studied: 4- Studying the relative importance of grape exportsfor fruit exports, agricultural exports, 0 - The study of the development of thequantity, value and export prices of grape exports, 5 - Measuring the indicatorsof the export efficiency of Egyptian exports of grapes, (Efficiency of theperformance of export operations - The degree of economic openness - Thecoefficient of comparative advantage phenomenon - Instability coefficient -Gini coefficient of quantity and value of exports to (1) Estimating the externaldemand for Egyptian grape exports using the market participation model. Theresearch relied on the published and unpublished secondary data issued by theCentral Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, the computer databaseof the system, Agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations (FAO), foreign trade publications, and some previous studiesin this field. To achieve the objectives of the research, statistical, economicand statistical methods of analysis were used by estimating general trendpatterns Linear model for each of the cultivated area, production andproductivity, quantity and value and export prices, and adopted economicanalysis at the expense of some indicators which the most important of theinstability coefficient, the calculation of the concentration geographicalcoefficient (Gini) coefficient, was used as a form of market participation toestimate the demand for grape exports function.The main findings of the study were: The percentage of Egypt'sexports of grapes from fruit exports continued to rise. The relative importanceof this period reached about 402031. The lowest value of the relativeimportance in 0224 was 22091. The percentage of Egypt's exports of grapesfor agricultural exports increased continuously. The relative importance of thisperiod was about 12901. The relative importance of this year was 22081. Therelative importance in 0229 was 402811. Also, the percentage of Egypt'sexports of grapes for total exports in Irvine The relative importance of thisperiod was about 2191. The lowest value for the relative importance in 0224was 22251 and the relative importance of 0248 was 424981. The estimation ofexport efficiency indicators for grapes during the study period shows that thedegree of economic openness The efficiency of export operations for grapeswas estimated at 22231 for the average period, and the maximum efficiency rate in 0228 was estimated at about 2242821, while the percentage of thegrapes was 2228791 for the average period, reaching a maximum of 2204901in 0228, While the lowest rate of efficiency in 0222 was estimated at about2222401, and it turned out that Mato The coefficient of competitiveness ofEgyptian exports of grapes during the study period was 1245 and its valueranged between a minimum of 0241 in 0240 and a maximum of 0248 in 0248.The results of the estimation of the demand function using the marketparticipation model showed that the value of the regression coefficient Theestimated model for the State of Kuwait and Italy of the UAE was -42425, -22491, -22405. This confirms an inverse relationship between the relative priceof imports and the market share of grapes. This is consistent with theeconomic theory. The price elasticity of the same countries is -2254, -2241,2248 (Inelastic demand), ie, the higher the relative price of exports, the lowerthe In the market share of grape exports. This means that there is a possibilityof increasing the export price of Kuwait, Italy and the UAE, thus increasingthe export yield of grapes, while the results in the same table showed that theregression coefficient in the estimated model for the UK and Belgium was22421, 22103 This confirms the existence of a positive relationship betweenthe relative price of imports and the market share of grapes, which may be dueto the non-saturation of the markets of the grapes and the increase in domesticdemand

The Dependence of Russian Manufacturing on Imports and the Strategy of Import Substitution

In Russia, the increase of domestic demand is slow, and import substitution is intended to become the driver of economic growth in the near future. The task of replacing foreign imports with domestic equivalents will in large part be determined by the Russian economy’s dependence on imports. This article analyzes the possibilities and direction of strategic import substitution in lessening Russia’s dependence on imports.

Why Did Korean Domestic Demand Slow Down after the Asian Financial Crisis?

Why Did Korean Domestic Demand Slow Down after the Asian Financial Crisis?

An Analysis of Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy

This paper attempts to analyze sources of output growth in the Indian economy using Input-Output based Structural Decomposition Analysis over the period 1993-4 to 2003-4. The decomposition results show that overall output expansion of the economy was primarily driven by increase in domestic demand followed by export expansion. At the aggregate level, import liberalization contributed to output expansion. Contribution of improved technology is realized through changes in input-output coefficients and has been rather limited. It can be said that easier and cheaper access to better quality imports, had a rather limited technological change at an aggregate level. However, the relationship between the two sources varied at sector level.

Impact of politics, economic events and port policies on the evolution of maritime traffic in Chinese ports

The Chinese government has been exploring various paths to find a direction that better suits China’s national conditions during the past 60 years. Meanwhile, a series of political and economic events and policy transformations have had different effects on the port industry. This article attempts to ascertain how these events and port policies have influenced Chinese port traffic through an empirical study on data covering 1952–2009. The findings suggest that foreign trade has been the prime driver of the throughput of Chinese ports. The increase in the ports’ throughput has enabled an increase in domestic demand and the urgent need for further port investment. Chinese port throughput has been subject to multiple shocks. The Great Leap Forward1 is found to have had the largest, but only a short-term impact. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, however, led to a longer and exclusive effect on ports, with little observed effect on the other variables. The reform of port governance is shown to have had a more lasting positive effect on port throughput than physical investment. However, these latter effects are minor, the economic and political factors remain the primary driving factors of port throughput.