Increase Of Construction Land Research Articles

Temporal and Spatial Response of Ecological Environmental Quality to Land Use Transfer in Nanling Mountain Region, China Based on RSEI: A Case Study of Longnan City

Nanling Mountain region is a typical southern hilly region, which plays an important ecological and environmental protection role in China’s overall land protection pattern. Based on the remote sensing image data of Longnan City in Nanling Mountain region in 2013, 2018 and 2023, this paper interpreted the land use type and analyzed the land use transfer situation by using land use transfer flow, and a land use transfer matrix. At the same time, based on the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) model, the ecological environmental quality of Longnan City from 2013 to 2023 was retrieved. The temporal and spatial response model of the ecological environmental quality to land use transfer in Longnan City from 2013 to 2023 was discussed based on spatial autocorrelation and a geographical detector. The results show that from 2013 to 2023, the decrease of forest land (16.23 km2) and the increase of construction land (13.25 km2) were the main land use transfers in Longnan City. The ecological environment indexes of Longnan City in 2013, 2018 and 2023 were 0.789, 0.917 and 0.872, respectively, showing a trend of “first rising and then decreasing”. The ecological environmental quality in the north of Longnan City was significantly lower than that in the south, and the poor ecological quality area appeared in and around the northern main urban area, showing a trend of “inward contraction”. Forest land, garden land, grassland, cultivated land and water area have a positive impact on ecological environmental quality, while traffic land, construction land and other land have a negative impact on ecological environmental quality. The response of ecological environmental quality to different land use transfer modes is related to the change of the overall ecological environmental quality. The interaction between land use and land cover change (LUCC) and other factors had a great impact on the evolution of ecological environmental quality in Longnan City.

Evaluating and simulating the impacts of land use patterns on carbon emissions in coal resource-based regions: A case study of shanxi province, China

It is essential for sustainable development worldwide to reduce carbon emissions (CE), however, how land use patterns in coal resource-based regions (CRBRs) affect CE remains less explored. Based on socioeconomic data and GlobeLand30, this study evaluated and predicted the influence of land use patterns on CE in Shanxi Province from 2000 to 2030. The key findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of cropland in the study area decreased by 4.85 × 105 ha and the area of construction land increased by 4.38 × 105 ha, with the increase in construction land coming mainly from cropland. (2) There was an increasing trend in the overall net CE, from 3.17 × 107 t in 2000 to 3.89 × 107 t in 2010 and 6.38 × 107 t in 2020. The land use CE had a spatial distribution characteristic of being high in the west and south and low in the east and north. The total CE was the largest in 2030 in business-as-usual scenario (BAUs), and the CE class of the cities in the study area was mainly high CE, while the ecological and economic balance scenario (EEBs) was higher CE. In 2030, the BAUs will have the largest total CE, and the CE levels of the cities will mainly high CE. (3) The decoupling state between the land use mix degree (LUM) and CE in the study area was mainly an expansionary negative decoupling over the past 20 years and changed from long negative decoupling to weak decoupling in the economic development priority scenario (EDPs) and strong decoupling in EEBs, which might be better suited to the future development of Shanxi Province. This study makes it easier to comprehend how different land use patterns affect the number of CE in CRBRs. Additionally, it provides other CRBRs with a theoretical framework and instances needed to research CE.

Landscape Analysis and Ecological Risk Assessment during 1995–2020 Based on Land Utilization/Land Coverage (LULC) and Random Forest: A Case Study of the Fushun Open-Pit Coal Area in Liaoning, China

China’s Fushun open-pit mine is the largest century-old coal mine in Asia. Large-scale mining and the use of coal has caused dramatic changes in the regional urban landscape pattern, seriously affecting the ecological function and ecosystem stability of its surrounding landscape. Evaluating the ecological risks of the landscape in the urban areas of open-pit mines contributes to the risk management of regional ecosystems and the sustainable development of society. This study selected six-phase Landsat ETM/OLI remote sensing images from 1995 to 2020 and combined them with the random forest model to carry out an LULC classification of the open-pit mine and its surrounding areas and, on this basis, discusses the evolution of its landscape pattern and evaluates the ecological risks. It fills the gap in the research on the evolution of regional landscape patterns and ecological risks in the study area and improves the automatic classification efficiency of LULC for use in open-pit mines. The results show that the classification accuracy of LULC regarding open-pit mines based on image pixels and the random forest model can reach 30 m, and the rate of accuracy can reach 92–97%. From 1995 to 2020, the coverage area of forest land and building land in the study area has increased and is mainly composed of grassland and undeveloped land. The use of land was transferred to the mining area, the water body area maintained a relative dynamic balance, and the overall vegetation coverage of the mining area was greatly improved; the forest land began to expand from the surrounding area to the mining area in 2010, and the construction land began to move from the areas surrounding the mining area to the surrounding valleys in 2015. The landforms have extended radially, and the landscape sprawl index has increased, indicating the optimization of the ecological environment; the high- and medium-risk areas decreased by 75.51 km2, the low-risk areas expanded by 461.48 km2, and the overall ecological risk index decreased. From this, it is possible to conclude that the landscape restoration project adopted in the study area has achieved great results, and the improvement of the ecological environment also directly affects the increase of construction land. These research results can provide scientific guidance for the rational utilization and sustainable development of land resources in urban areas of open-pit mines.

Urbanization effects on the food-water-energy nexus within ecosystem services: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China

This research centers on the necessity for synchronized management of natural resources in urban agglomerations. This study utilizes the ecosystem services theory to analyze the interplay between land use and the Food-Water-Energy (F-W-E) nexus in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (B-T-H) region from 2000 to 2030. Assessment of ecosystem services is conducted using InVEST models, which include Habitat Quality (HQ), Water Yield (WY), Carbon Sequestration (CS), Soil Retention (SDR), and Food Production (FP). The findings indicate an annual increase in construction land with a concurrent notable decrease in cultivated land. Furthermore, HQ, CS, and per capita FP show an annual decline until 2020, which is expected to continue until 2030. Conversely, WY and SDR have been growing annually, albeit projected to decline by 2030. Spearman coefficient analysis uncovers synergies between HQ and CS, SDR and CS, and SDR and HQ, alongside trade-offs between CS and WY and HQ and WY. Trade-offs are also observed between FP and SDR, CS, and HQ. Applying K-means clustering analysis facilitates county-based spatial planning for the F-W-E system, providing crucial insights and suggestions for sustainable resource management.

Land use change in coastal zones of China from 1985 to 2020

Coastal regions stand as pivotal zones of interaction between the marine and terrestrial environments, holding substantial significance for both ecosystems and human societies. Since the 1980s, China’s coastal zones (CCZ) have undergone rapid economic expansion, a surge in urban development activities, and a considerable population increase, instigating significant alterations in land use along the coast. However, in recent years, studies regarding changes in land use along China’s coastal zones have been notably scarce. Utilizing the Comprehensive Lands Cover Database (CLCD) dataset, this study scrutinized the spatiotemporal patterns of land use along the Chinese coastline since 1985. It delved into the temporal and spatial variations in land use, ecological land transformations, and the spatiotemporal evolution of land use development intensity, examining these facets across provinces, municipalities, and different distance bands from the coastal zone. The research findings indicated: Overall, cropland and forest land predominantly occupied coastal zones, encompassing over 80% of the total area. Between 1985 and 2020, the primary changes involved a decrease in cropland and an increase in construction land, with a reduction of 5.97% in cropland, largely transitioning into construction land (84927.21 km2) and forest land (4218.55 km2), resulting in a 5.98% increase in construction land. Despite the intensification of land development, ecological land exhibited an initial rise followed by a declining trend. There existed distinct disparities in land use patterns among provinces and cities, with cropland and forest land prevailing in all areas except Macau. Construction land and land use development intensity witnessed significant increases, most notably in Macau and least pronouncedly in Guangxi. Variations in ecological land alterations were considerable, with Hebei and Guangdong witnessing increases while other regions tended towards stability or reduction. Each distance band manifests a unique land use pattern. Except for the 100-150 km zone, construction land demonstrates an increasing trend across all bands. Ecological land expanded initially but fluctuated further from the coastline. Land use development intensity decreased initially, then stabilized, with the 0-10 km zone showed the highest development intensity. Analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in land use along China’s coastal zones from 1985 to 2020 can offer valuable insights into the management and sustainable development of China’s coastal zones.

Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use

The ecological environment in the mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang is very sensitive and fragile, and identifying the ecological asset retention within the mountainous areas is a top priority at the current stage in the context of comprehensive environmental management in arid zones. This study examines the conversion and ecosystem service values between different land types within the mountainous areas based on a time series of land-use data from 1990 to 2020, and the results show that: (1) The value of ecosystem services on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains shows an overall increasing trend. It increased from CNY 308.645 billion in 1990 to CNY 326.550 billion in 2020. Among them, the value of ecosystem services increased significantly between 2000 and 2010, with an increase of CNY 39.857 billion. Regulatory services accounted for more than 66% of the value of each ecosystem service. (2) Land use on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains has changed significantly since 1990. The areas of cropland, forest land, grassland, watershed, and construction land have all shown an upward trend, with the greatest increase in construction land. The area of unutilized land, on the other hand, has slightly decreased. (3) The value of ecosystem services within the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains was spatially high in the south, low in the north, and higher in the west than in the east. The study also found a significant positive spatial correlation between ecosystem service values. In the spatial distribution, the increasing areas were mainly distributed in the southeast, and the decreasing areas were in the north. Changes in land types are expected to include an increase in the area of grassland and woodland, a decrease in unutilized land and cropland, and an overall improvement in the ecological environment of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains in the next decade. This study also provides lessons and references for sustainable development and ecological protection in ecologically fragile regions.

Spatiotemporal dislocation of ecosystem supply and demand services from habitat quality under different development scenarios

The uneven spatial–temporal distribution of ecosystem services in humid regions seriously hinders the achievement of regional ecological construction and sustainable development goals. However, most studies have ignored the mechanism of coupled water supply and demand, and there is no clear understanding of the relationship between habitat quality and water supply services under future land use/land cover (LULC). This study is based on the Han River (HR) Basin and integrates the PLUS and InVEST models to propose an integrated framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal changes in associated water production, habitat quality, and the current risk of water supply and demand under future land use changes. The results show that from 2000 to 2050, the construction land under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) is expanding, the proportion of forest and grassland is decreasing, and the habitat quality is decreasing from 0.7052 to 0.7046. Under the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), the increase in construction land has slowed, large areas of cropland land have been converted to forest land, and habitat quality has improved. Under the Ecological Development Scenario (EDS), the proportion of cropland and construction lands rises, and habitat quality declines the most (0.6923). In particular, water production is greater in areas of low habitat quality. The overall water supply of the HR basin has slightly decreased, and the water demand has increased significantly. The ecological deficit area of the upper HR has increased extensively from 2000 to 2020, and the risk of the basin's water supply demand has increased. This study proposes relevant supply and demand risk mitigation strategies to enhance regional coordinated development, which can provide a scientific basis for water resource management planning in wetland areas.

Establishing and optimizing the ecological security pattern of the urban agglomeration in arid regions of China

The ecological security pattern (ESP) is an efficient method for identifying priority protection zones and preserving regional security. The study of the ESP in arid urban agglomerations is in its infancy, and there is currently no established research paradigm. The study focused on the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM), located on the northern side of the Tianshan Mountains. To determine the factors influencing the development of ecosystem services (ESs) from 1990 to 2030, we used the PLUS model, ecosystem service accounting model (InVEST), and Mantel test. Combining the results mentioned above with the MSPA-Circuit theory allows us to establish and optimize the ESP in UANSTM. The results showed that between 1990 and 2030, UANSTM saw considerable changes in land use and an increase in construction land and cropland, reflecting the growing urbanization trend that will inevitably lead to the occupation of ecological lands, including forestland and grassland. Large fluctuations in the ESs were triggered by substantial changes in land use during the study period. According to the predicted results, the ES scenario had the smallest area of low-value land, which is consistent with the subsequent development status. Moreover, precipitation, slope, elevation, evapotranspiration, and NDVI on the four ESs type are also found to be major driving factors. Precipitation and NDVI are severely constrained by evapotranspiration, reflecting the characteristics of arid regions. Finally, we took good connectivity ecological patches are identified as ecological sources in ES scenario, Urumqi as the main ecological core, proposed the ecological optimization pattern of UANSTM from the viewpoint of “point and line to plane” and advocated for the “multi-core, nine districts, eight belts, and one road” to advance the development of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”. Urban agglomeration construction and land space planning in arid regions can benefit from the results of this study.

Using the InVEST-PLUS Model to Predict and Analyze the Pattern of Ecosystem Carbon storage in Liaoning Province, China

Studying the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of carbon storage, balancing land development and utilization with ecological protection, and promoting urban low-carbon sustainable development are important topics under China’s “dual carbon strategy” (Carbon emissions stabilize and harmonize with natural carbon absorption). However, existing research has paid little attention to the impact of land use changes under different spatial policies on the provincial-scale ecosystem carbon storage. In this study, we established a carbon density database for Liaoning Province and obtained the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon storage over the past 20 years. Then, based on 16 driving factors and multiple spatial policies in Liaoning Province, we predicted land use and land cover changes (LUCC) under three scenarios for 2050 and analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and response mechanisms of carbon storage under different scenarios. The results showed that (1) LUCC directly affected carbon storage, with a 35.61% increase in construction land and a decrease in carbon storage of 0.51 Tg over the 20-year period. (2) From 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage varied significantly among the natural trend scenario (NTS), ecological restoration scenario (ERS), and economic priority scenario (EPS), with values of 2112.05 Tg, 2164.40 Tg, and 2105.90 Tg, respectively. Carbon storage in the ecological restoration scenario exhibited positive growth, mainly due to a substantial increase in forest area. (3) The spatial pattern of carbon storage in Liaoning Province was characterized by “low in the center, high in the east, and balanced in the west”. Therefore, Liaoning Province can consider rationally formulating and strictly implementing the spatial policy of ecological protection in the future land planning so as to control the disorderly growth of construction land, realize the growth of ecological land area, effectively enhance carbon storage, and ensure the realization of the goal of “dual carbon strategy”.

Simulation and Zoning Research on the Ecosystem Service in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on SSP–RCP Scenarios

Understanding future trends and identifying characteristic differences in regional ecosystem services (ESs), in addition to ecological zoning, is vital for promoting the adjustment of ecological policy and the construction of sustainable ecosystems. Based on shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP–RCP), the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) in 2030 was simulated by using a patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS) in this study. Water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and food product were simulated through the comprehensive evaluation model combining ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST). The comprehensive supply capacity of ESs was assessed. The ecological risk level was calculated by comparing the changes in the integrated supply capacity of ESs in 2020 and under each SSP–RCP scenario in 2030, and ecological zoning was established using a two-dimensional discriminant matrix. The results are as follows: (1) The degradation of grassland and cropland accompanied by an increase in construction land and forest to varying degrees will be the common characteristics of the three SSP–RCP scenarios in BTH. (2) Water yield and carbon storage services will exhibit an upward tendency only under SSP1-2.6, while habitat quality and food product services will exhibit a downward trend under three SSP–RCP scenarios. Obvious geographical heterogeneity exists in the comprehensive supply capacity of ESs. (3) Zones with low ecological risks will mainly be distributed in some counties of Zhangjiakou city, while zones with high ecological risks will account for a large proportion of the whole. There will be great ecological risks in the BTH overall. (4) The BTH was split into four types of ecological zones based on supply and risk. These zones comprise the ecological enhancement zone, ecological restoration zone, ecological sensitive zone, and ecological conservation zone. Corresponding control measures were also proposed. The findings of this study can be used to inform the formulation and improvement of environmental conservation policies.

Spatiotemporal Analysis and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Services Based on Land Use/Cover Change in a Mountain-Watershed Region, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) accompanied by climate change and human activities will have unpredictable impacts on watershed ecosystems. However, the extent to which these land use changes affect the spatial and temporal distribution of ecosystem services (ESs) in different regions remains unclear. The impact of LUCC on ESs in the Qingjiang Watershed (QJW), an ecologically sensitive area, and LUCC’s role in future ESs under different land use scenarios are crucial to promoting ecological conservation and land use management. This paper assessed water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ) using the InVEST model, and their responses to LUCC in the QJW from 1990 to 2018 using the geodetector and multiscale geographically weighted regression. We predicted land use patterns using the Logistic–CA–Markov model and their effects on ESs in 2034 under business as usual (BAU), ecological land protection (ELP), arable land protection (ALP) and ecological economic construction (EEC) scenarios. From 1990 to 2018, the area of cropland and woodland decreased by 28.3 and 138.17 km2, respectively, while the built-up land increased by 96.65 km2. The WY increased by 18.92%, while the SC, CS and HQ decreased by 26.94%, 1.05% and 0.4%, respectively. The increase in the arable land area led to a increase in WY, and the decrease in forest land and the increase in construction land led to a decrease in SC, CS and HQ. In addition to being influenced by land use patterns, WY and SC were influenced mainly by meteorological and topographical factors, respectively. In 2034, there was an obvious spatial growth conflict between cropland and construction land, especially in the area centered on Lichuan, Enshi and Yidu counties. Under four scenarios, WY and SC were ranked ALP > BAU > EEC > ELP, while CS and HQ were ranked ELP > EEC > BAU > ALP. Considering the sustainable eco-socio-economic development of the QJW, the EEC scenario can be chosen as a future development plan. These results can indicate how to rationally improve the supply of watershed ESs through land resource allocation, promoting sustainable regional development in mountainous watershed areas.

Decoupling analysis to assess the impact of land use patterns on carbon emissions: A case study in the Yellow River Delta efficient eco-economic zone, China

Investigating how land use patterns impact on carbon emissions is crucial, as land use change is a major cause of increased carbon emission. High Efficiency Eco-economic Zone of Yellow River Delta (HEEZ-YRD) are typical of land use patterns affecting carbon emissions due to the fact they have greater dramatic land use changes. Here, we used carbon emission model and the decoupling analysis to assess the impact of land use patterns on carbon emissions based on the 30-m Global Land Cover Dataset (GlobeLand30) and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2019. The results showed that construction land increased while cropland decreased. The construction land area increased from cropland was 9.03 × 104ha from 2000 to 2010 and 1.44 × 105ha from 2010 to 2019, indicating that the increase in construction land mainly from cropland. Moreover, the HEEZ-YRD was the carbon source area. The total net carbon emissions increased from 9155.68 Gg CO2 equivalents (CO2e) in 2000–45817.44 Gg CO2e in 2019, but the increase declined. In the HEEZ-YRD, the land-use mix degree was highest in the east and north and lowest in the west and south. Zouping had the highest carbon emissions of all the cities. The decoupling of land use patterns and carbon emissions was dynamic. During the study period, the decoupling between land use patterns and carbon emissions shifted from an extended negative decoupling to a weak or even a strong decoupling. The consequences will make contributions to the establishment and implementation of low-carbon insurance policies and supply a theoretical framework for sustainable land use.

Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Land Use Change and Eco-Environmental Effects in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Core Area

In the past 20 years, the integration process of the Chang-Zhu-Tan region has been accelerating, and land use has undergone significant changes. Land use change is a fundamental factor causing changes in the quality of the ecological environment. It is crucial to analyze land use change in the context of rapid urbanization and its impact on the ecological environment to promote sustainable and high-quality regional development. This study takes the Chang-Zhu-Tan core area, which has the highest development and construction intensity, as the study area. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, the land use information is extracted using Landsat remote sensing image data and the random forest method. The remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) is constructed to analyze the ecological and environmental effects of land use change based on the spatial and temporal changes of land use types and ecological and environmental quality in the Chang-Zhu-Tan core area from 2000 to 2020. The results show that the most critical land use change in the study area from 2000 to 2020 is mainly the sharp increase in construction land, accompanied by a continuous decrease in forest and cropland. During this period, the eco-environmental quality of the study area showed a declining trend, with significant differences in spatial distribution, generally showing a distribution pattern of suburban counties outperforming central urban areas. In addition, the distribution and changes in land use and ecological environment quality coincide spatially. Different land use types have different impacts on ecological environment quality, with the conversion of forest and cropland to construction land being the main reason for the deterioration of eco-environmental quality in the study area. This study provides a basis for the coordinated development of the ecological environment and social economy in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area.

Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China

Land use change has significant impacts on the regional and global environment; thus, in-depth research on the associated ecological risks is necessary for promoting ecological restoration and sustainable development. Xinjiang, China, is characterized by a fragile ecological environment, and this study aimed to predict the land use change in the region in 2030 under different scenarios, including natural development, ecological conservation, and urban development, by using the PLUS model based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. Based on the landscape structure of regional ecosystems, we developed a comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework by utilizing a combination of landscape disturbance index, vulnerability index, and loss index. This framework allowed us to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and variations of landscape ecological risks under different scenarios in 2030. The study results indicate the following: (1) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the primary landscape type in Xinjiang was unused land. However, significant changes were observed in the area of cultivated land, mainly due to the conversion of grassland and construction land. The expansion of construction land during the urbanization process resulted in a decline in ecological landscapes, such as grassland, thereby weakening the ecosystem’s stability. (2) Under different simulation scenarios, the urban development scenario primarily led to the conversion of unused land into construction land, which is beneficial for economic development. On the other hand, the ecological conservation scenario resulted in a modest increase in construction land and a transformation of unused land into forest and grassland, which aligns with the principles of sustainable development. (3) Different scenarios in 2030 result in varying degrees of changes in each landscape type in Xinjiang, with the spatial distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks remaining similar to those observed in 2020. Notably, under the urban development scenario, the area of lowest and medium risk areas decreases significantly while the area of higher and highest risk areas increases substantially. Conversely, under the ecological conservation scenario, the area of the lowest risk areas experiences a more significant increase. (4) Overall, the spatial differences in the ecological risk of Xinjiang’s landscape are significant, with HH and LL clustering types predominating and presenting a polarization pattern. The distribution pattern is low in the north and high in the central and southern parts of the study area.

Multiscenario Simulation of Land-Use Change in Hubei Province, China Based on the Markov-FLUS Model

A goal of land change modelers should be to communicate scenarios of future change that show the variety of possible future landscapes based on the consequences of management decisions. This study employs the Markov-FLUS model to simulate land-use changes in Hubei Province in multiple scenarios that consider social, economic, and ecological policies using 18 driving factors, including point-of-interest data. First, the Markov-FLUS model was developed and validated with historical data from 2000 to 2020. The model was then used to simulate land-use changes from 2020 to 2035 in four scenarios: natural development, economic priority, ecological protection, and cultivated land protection. The results show that the Markov-FLUS model effectively simulates the land-use change pattern in Hubei Province, with an overall accuracy of 0.93 for land use simulation in 2020. The Kappa coefficient and FOM index also achieved 0.86 and 0.139, respectively. In all four scenarios, cultivated land remained the primary land use type in Hubei Province from 2020 to 2035, while construction land showed an increasing trend. However, there were large differences in the simulated land use patterns in different scenarios. Construction land expanded most rapidly in the economic priority scenario, while it expanded more slowly in the cultivated land protection scenario. We designed the protection scenario to restrict the rapid expansion of construction land. In the natural development and economic priority scenarios, construction land expanded and encroached on cultivated land and forests. In contrast, in the ecological protection scenario, forests and water areas were well-preserved, and the decrease in cultivated land and the increase in construction land were effectively suppressed, resulting in a large improvement in land use sustainability. Finally, in the cultivated land protection scenario, the cultivated land showed an increasing trend. The spread and expansion of construction land were effectively curbed. In conclusion, the Markov-FLUS model applied in this study to simulate land use in multiple scenarios has substantial implications for the effective utilization of land resources and the protection of the ecological environment in Hubei Province.

Dynamic Evolution of Land Use/Land Cover and Its Socioeconomic Driving Forces in Wuhan, China.

Human activities are considered as the main driving forces of land use/land cover (LULC) variation at city scales. Monitoring the dynamic variation of LULC and its socioeconomic driving forces helps to reveal the response of LULC change to human activities and land use policies. However, this issue remains poorly understood. In this study, the spatiotemporal transitions among different LULC types during nearly three decades in Wuhan, China, were modeled in detail using the transfer matrix method. Ten socioeconomic factors indicating the population level, economic condition and social development were selected to quantitatively explain LULC variation. Some typical policies were discussed for the LULC transitions. The results showed that construction land was detected to continuously increase, with the fastest change rate of 560.48% during the 29-year period. Farmland area significantly declined by 1855 km2, decreasing by 31.21%, contributing to 86.14% of the area increase in construction lands. To some extent, the net area increase in construction land was at the expense of farmland area. All 10 indicators considered in this study were positively correlated with the construction land area (R2 of 0.783~0.970) and negatively correlated with farmland area (R2 of 0.861~0.979). In general, social and economic development contributed considerably to urban expansion and cultivated land loss. The largest contributors were non-agricultural population and economic conditions (secondary industry output, primary industry output and local revenues). Governmental guidance and behavior were considered the original impetus for LULC transition, while the impact of land use policies and human activities on LULC transitions varied across the subperiods. These findings provide decision-making support for appropriate urban planning and efficient land use management.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change of the Weihe River basin, Northwest China

AbstractThe Weihe River has experienced a significant runoff decline in the past few decades, but the detailed and systematic analysis of different sub‐regions of the Weihe River basin (WRB) for a long time is insufficient. Based on the data of five hydrological stations from 1957 to 2018, this study investigated the variation of annual runoff both in the whole Weihe River basin (WWRB) and its sub‐regions: the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Weihe River (URWR, MRWR, LRWR, respectively), the Jing River basin (JRB), and the Beiluo River basin (BLRB). Moreover, the contribution of climate change and anthropogenic activities on runoff change was quantified by double mass curve (DMC) and hydrological sensitivity analysis (HSA) methods. The results showed that runoff of the URWR, MRWR, JRB, BLRB, and WWRB showed significant downward trends, and with the change‐point years of 1993, 1990, 1996, 1994, and 1993, respectively. Both results of DMC and HSA showed that anthropogenic activities were the main factors for runoff reduction. The contribution of human activities was largest in the JRB and BLRB, whereas lowest in the MRWR. Over the study period, land use has changed significantly in the basin, mainly manifested in the reduction of farmland, and the increase of construction land and grassland, indicating that intense anthropogenic activities have taken place. Moreover, the total water consumption of the WWRB increased evidently, which exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources. The results of HSA showed that runoff was more sensitive to precipitation than to Ep. Precipitation reduced the runoff, while Ep increased runoff in the basin. The results of this study are helpful for understanding the regional hydrological situation in more detail, and can act as a reference for formulating reasonable water resources allocation schemes.

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment during 2000–2020 Based on Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Lanzhou City

A landscape ecological risk model was constructed to evaluate the landscape ecological risk pertaining to Lanzhou City based on the land use and land cover (LULC) changes obtained using remote sensing data for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 covering the duration 2010–2020. Results show that during 2010–2020, the LULC types in Lanzhou City mainly comprised of cropland, grassland, and construction land. In terms of LULC changes in Lanzhou City the trend shows a decrease in cropland and increase in construction land with an increase in the fragmentation and separation of cropland, grassland, and shrubland, which is pronounced for cropland and shrubland. The spatial distribution pattern of ecological risk shows very high and very low levels of risk in the main urban area in the south and in the northwest of the city, respectively. From 2010 to 2020, the ecological risk level of the landscape shows a gradual increase with evidence for significant changes. The results of the study provide a scientific basis for the optimization of the landscape pattern, rational utilization and development of land resources in Lanzhou City, and lay a solid foundation for the formulation of ecological risk control measures.

Cultivated land loss and construction land expansion in China: Evidence from national land surveys in 1996, 2009 and 2019

Knowledge of cultivated land conservation and construction land expansion in China and its provincial scale is still insufficient due to the lack of accurate and reliable data. Based on the dataset of three nationwide land surveys in China, this study used the statistical analysis and two-way fixed effect model to explore the spatio-temporal patterns and driving forces of cultivated land and construction land change in China at the provincial and regional levels during the period 1996–2019. Results show that over the past 20 years, China's cultivated land increased first and then decreased. Distinct regional land use change characteristics were also detected, showing a continual increase in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and a continuous decrease in eastern coastal and southwestern provinces. The center of gravity of China's cultivated land area had a trend of moving northward as a whole. Between 1996 and 2019, the area of high-quality cultivated land with slope of 2° and below in eastern China decreased by 23.33 %, while that in the three northeastern provinces and the 13 major grain producing provinces increased by 41.66 % and 11.1 %, respectively. Construction land across the country and all provinces continued to expand, and township land was expanding faster than city and village construction land. In rapidly urbanizing China, rural settlement land did not shrink but expanded rapidly, especially in the provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Sichuan where the rural population continued to decrease substantially. The mismatch between urban expansion and population growth scale was prominent. The problem of extensive and inefficient use of rural construction land is still widespread and has become more serious. Road construction has also contributed to the expansion of construction land in China. About 80 % of cultivated land loss in China was occupied by construction purposes, while the increase of construction land was driven by the expansion of built-up areas and population growth. China's land policy to control the expansion of construction land and the loss of cultivated land appears to be a double failure. The adjustment of land use planning and land policy needs to fully consider the characteristics of regional land use change, socioeconomic level and land use demand.

Habitat Quality Assessment in the Yellow River Delta Based on Remote Sensing and Scenario Analysis for Land Use/Land Cover

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change is one of the core features of global change. Habitat quality is an essential representation of ecosystem service functioning and ecosystem health. It is of great significance to assess the habitat quality spatiotemporal heterogeneity caused by land-use change in the regional ecological environment for security and sustainable regional management. Based on the interpreted LULC data of the Yellow River Delta (YRD) in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was used to forecast different LULC 2030 scenarios. Specifically, this study aimed to analyze the LULC change in the YRD and use the InVEST model to evaluate the overall habitat quality in the historical period of the region and future scenarios. From 2000 to 2020, the most critical land-use changes within a 20 km radius from the coastline in the study area are mainly the sharp increase in construction land, mariculture and salt pan, and the sharp decline of coastal wetlands, which is mainly due to the high intensity of human development activities and the process of erosion and deposition in coastal zones and estuarine deltas. During the period, the average habitat quality in the YRD decreased yearly, with the overall regional habitat quality classified as intermediate. The habitat quality was the most significant in the 0–20 km range from the coastline because of the high intensity of human development activities in this area. The habitat quality in the YRD varied under different scenarios in 2030. In the baseline scenario (BS) and socio-economic development (SD) scenario, the habitat quality decreased continuously, but the habitat quality increased under the ecological protection (EP) scenario. This research can provide relevant scientific references for optimizing landscape patterns and improving habitat quality in the YRD region.