Evaluating and simulating the impacts of land use patterns on carbon emissions in coal resource-based regions: A case study of shanxi province, China

Abstract

It is essential for sustainable development worldwide to reduce carbon emissions (CE), however, how land use patterns in coal resource-based regions (CRBRs) affect CE remains less explored. Based on socioeconomic data and GlobeLand30, this study evaluated and predicted the influence of land use patterns on CE in Shanxi Province from 2000 to 2030. The key findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of cropland in the study area decreased by 4.85 × 105 ha and the area of construction land increased by 4.38 × 105 ha, with the increase in construction land coming mainly from cropland. (2) There was an increasing trend in the overall net CE, from 3.17 × 107 t in 2000 to 3.89 × 107 t in 2010 and 6.38 × 107 t in 2020. The land use CE had a spatial distribution characteristic of being high in the west and south and low in the east and north. The total CE was the largest in 2030 in business-as-usual scenario (BAUs), and the CE class of the cities in the study area was mainly high CE, while the ecological and economic balance scenario (EEBs) was higher CE. In 2030, the BAUs will have the largest total CE, and the CE levels of the cities will mainly high CE. (3) The decoupling state between the land use mix degree (LUM) and CE in the study area was mainly an expansionary negative decoupling over the past 20 years and changed from long negative decoupling to weak decoupling in the economic development priority scenario (EDPs) and strong decoupling in EEBs, which might be better suited to the future development of Shanxi Province. This study makes it easier to comprehend how different land use patterns affect the number of CE in CRBRs. Additionally, it provides other CRBRs with a theoretical framework and instances needed to research CE.