Increase In Global Average Temperature Research Articles

CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE MECHANISMS OF HEAT STRESS TOLERANCE IN RICE (Oryza sativa L.)

Various studies reported by scientific communities such as NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) indicated an increase in average global temperature by approx. 0.8 °C since 1880. Rice (Oryza sativa L.), a heat sensitive plant cereal crop could be greatly affected by heat stress due to global temperature rise. Thus, it is envisaged that rice productivity could markedly decrease due to a rise in mean atmospheric temperature. Different studies have been reported possible mechanisms of heat stress tolerance in Rice. The present review will therefore discuss the current fundamental understanding of heat tolerant mechanisms involving heat shock proteins, plant hormones, plant growth regulators, osmoprotectants, and the importance of membrane thermal stability in rice.

Climate Model Projections for Canada: A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6

ABSTRACT Recent studies have identified stronger warming in the latest generation of climate model simulations globally, and the same is true for projected changes in Canada. This study examines differences for Canada and six sub-regions between simulations from the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and its predecessor CMIP5. Ensembles from both experiments are assessed using a set of derived indices calculated from daily precipitation and temperature, with projections compared at fixed future time intervals and fixed levels of global temperature change. For changes calculated at fixed time intervals most temperature indices display higher projected changes in CMIP6 than CMIP5 for most sub-regions, while greater precipitation changes in CMIP6 occur mainly in extreme precipitation indices. When future projections are calculated at fixed levels of global average temperature increase, the size and spread of differences for future projected changes between CMIP6 and CMIP5 are substantially reduced for most indices. Temperature scaling behaviour, or the regional response to increasing global temperatures, is similar in both ensembles, with annual temperature anomalies for Canada and its sub-regions increasing at between 1.5 and 2.5 times the rate of increase globally, depending on the region. The CMIP6 ensemble projections exhibit modestly stronger scaling behaviour for temperature anomalies in northern Canada, as well as for certain indices of moderate and extreme events. Such temperature scaling differences persist even if anomalously warm CMIP6 global climate models are omitted. Comparing the mean and variance of future projections for Canada in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations from the same modelling centre suggests CMIP6 models are significantly warmer in Canada than CMIP5 models at the same level of forcing, with some evidence that internal temperature variability in CMIP6 is reduced compared with CMIP5.

Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where productivity is affected by deviations of temperature and precipitation from their long-term moving average historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. We also show that the marginal effects of temperature shocks vary across climates and income groups. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04 °C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement goals, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01 °C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. The estimated losses would increase to 13 percent globally if country-specific variability of climate conditions were to rise commensurate with annual temperature increases of 0.04 °C.

A Modified Resonant Column Device for In-Depth Analysis of Vibration in Cohesive and Cohesionless Soils

With the accelerating progression of global climate change, switching to renewable energy sources is inevitable. Wind energy is a fast-growing branch of this industry, and according to the 2021 Global Wind Report, this trend must continue in order to limit the increase in global average temperature. While onshore wind turbines still dominate and account for most recent growth, offshore wind turbines are becoming a promising alternative for geographical, power density-related or even aesthetic reasons. Offshore wind turbines are subjected to more complex loading conditions and proper foundation design is very challenging, however, this is crucial for ensuring and maintaining the structure’s reliability. Soil dynamic tests are one of the bases for wind turbine foundation design. Technical regulations in many countries require such tests to be carried out in a Resonant Column (RC). In this study, a modification of the RC sensors and data acquisition system was introduced in order to conduct in-depth analysis of vibrating soil specimens. The new set of sensors contained five additional accelerometers (Analog Devices ADXL345) attached to the surface of a soil specimen that was subjected to dynamic loading. These accelerometers sent the data to a new data acquisition system, an ARM microcontroller with software developed by authors. The software was able to process test results synchronously with the original software of the RC device. Additionally, the load control system was supplemented with a current pulse generator, which makes it possible to observe the propagation of high-frequency mechanical waves in the tested materials. The modified dynamic testing equipment allowed for the measuring of accelerations and displacements at specific selected points located along the height of the sample, with sampling frequency more than three times higher than that offered by the sensors originally built into the RC device. As a result, some additional dynamic phenomena (i.e., disturbances in the uniformity of vibrations of non-cohesive materials, specimen–device contact imperfections) were observed in the tested soil specimens which remained undetected in standard RC test.

Notes from the Editors, October 2021

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 What was most significant about the published Part I of the report was that it revealed that even in the most optimistic projection of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways—in which carbon emissions globally peak in the next four years, a 1.5°C increase in global average temperature over preindustrial levels would be avoided until 2040, and the goal of net zero carbon emissions would be reached by 2050—the consequences for global humanity would nonetheless be catastrophic by the measure of all historical precedents.

Little room for new fossil fuel development if global temperatures are to stay below 1.5°C

A new paper in <i>Nature</i> by Welsby et al. makes clear that pursuing efforts to limit global average temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the most frequently stated goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement—implies the vast majority of coal, crude oil, and natural gas must remain underground and undeveloped.

Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement

National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, reduce best estimates of projected global average temperature increase to 2.0–2.4 °C by 2100, bringing the Paris Agreement temperature goal within reach. A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. These targets could substantially lower projected warming as compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C).

Optimized H2 fueling station arrangement model based on total cost of ownership (TCO) of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV)

Environmental issue such as global warming caused serious natural disasters such as flood and drought due to CO2 emission. Global countries cooperate to address the global warming represented by Paris Agreement, which encouraged actions to restrict CO2 emission and global average temperature increase. H2 has been received more attention than before due to its eco-friendly property. Fuel cell and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) are the widely used H2 application in terms of energy and transportation sector. However, most of the researches were carried out related to H2 supply chain. In hence, in this study, economic analysis considering total cost of ownership (TCO) of FCEV was conducted and correlation between TCO and market share of FCEV was figured out by drawing a regression curve. Finally, an optimization model was developed to obtain the optimal H2 fueling station arrangement model in case of 2022, 2030, and 2040 depending on learning rate (8, 13, and 18%).The $ 46,444.2 of TCO was computed considering three years of ownership length. In addition, 4.3, 31.7, and 94.0% of maker share in 2040 were reached in case of 8, 13, and 18% of learning rate, respectively. Finally, it was unveiled that H2 fueling station is preferred to construct equally in nation and the construction region will be shifted to a higher population density region as time passed.

Foundations of Climate Investing: How Equity Markets Have Priced Climate-Transition Risks

Countries have set varying targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C. In this article, the authors examine to what extent climate risk has been priced into equity markets and whether climate change can be modeled using a typical risk model structure. They develop the fundamental economic transmission channels to explain the potential impact of climate change on equity prices, including empirical evidence for climate policies and green technology as financial risk drivers. They also study the impact of climate-transition risk on valuation levels and trends. They conclude with a discussion of how to measure and categorize companies’ climate-risk exposures and how to integrate climate-transition risks into risk models. <b>TOPICS:</b>ESG investing, security analysis and valuation, tail risks <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ The authors identified economic transmission channels showing how regulatory policies and green technology influence financial markets. In developed markets outside the United States, more carbon-efficient companies experienced stronger performance over a seven-year study period. They found companies’ green revenue share was clearly associated with higher earnings growth and relatively better stock performance within a given sector. ▪ Next, they looked at the relationship between companies’ climate-transition risk profiles and their valuation levels, finding that carbon-intensive companies experienced declining valuation in terms of price-to-book ratios than their less carbon-intensive sector peers—suggesting that markets have discounted the book value of carbon-intensive companies during the study period. In contrast, companies with significant green revenues saw their price-to-earnings ratios increase relative to their sector peers. ▪ Companies’ earnings growth and stock performance was directly related to their greenhouse gas emissions. Using five MSCI low carbon transition categories, the authors found that the riskiest category (stranded assets) had the weakest performance and the solutions category the strongest during the study period. Although most performance differences were explained by the industry factor, there was a significant stock-specific return that showed a strong correlation to companies’ climate transition-risk profile.

Using climate uncertainty for functional resilience

Despite ambitions to limit the global average surface temperature increase to 2 °C and the grave concerns for the consequences, the world remains on a path that forecasts an average temperature increase of 3.0–4.5 °C before the end of the century. Many affected countries do not have the resources to perform sophisticated analyses, yet they require usable information for assessing local resilience needs from climate impacts. This article presents newly available analysis methods and regional estimates of climate change uncertainty that enable effective screening assessments for resilience. The assessment tool, C-FIT (Climate Futures Impact Tool), is freely and publicly available and is designed to help analysts and stakeholders evaluate the potential importance of uncertainty on compound-risks from climate change at the local, country, or regional level. It is primarily intended for use in lesser-developed countries and for users requiring screening level analyses. Using exceedance probabilities, it focuses on future climate-change risks due to volatility and uncertainty, rather than on the average-expected impacts. Parameterized uncertainty distributions were estimated for 9 climate variables (daily average and maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture, and evaporation) in 169 country areas. Users can then apply recent advances in numerical methods to quantify economic resilience trade-offs as well as publicly available tools to analyze and sequence adaptation options that minimize cost despite future changes in climate predictions and their associated uncertainty.

Review of transition paths for coal-fired power plants

The energy sector has an essential role in limiting the global average temperature increase to below 2 °C. Redirecting and advancing technological progress contribute to carbon-free transition solutions. Energy transition is currently one of the most debated issues in the world. This paper reviews and summarizes the current policy projections and their assumptions organized by some major countries in the energy sector, particularly in the coal sector, and provides a detailed discussion on specific and significant socio-technical pathways taken by countries to achieve zero-carbon targets. Their implementation involves restructuring the existing energy system and requires appropriate policy support and sufficient investment in infrastructure development and technological innovation. Some basic principles and countermeasures that have already been implemented by some major emitters, such as India and China, are also discussed, with different transformation pathways. Critical suggestions are also provided, such as implementing best practice policies at the national level, moving to more efficient transition strategies, national and regional cooperation, cross-border energy grid integration, and private sector involvement to reduce carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants, not only by reducing coal consumption but also by introducing various low carbon technologies.

Climate Adaptive Design Index for the Built Environment (CADI-BE): An Assessment System of the Adaptive Capacity to Urban Temperatures Increase

In a scenario in which the climate changes subject urban centres and large cities to high levels of environmental vulnerability and criticality underway, it is evident the need to define operational and straightforward decision-making tools capable of prefiguring and verifying the effectiveness of urban transformation climate-adaptive regeneration processes. The Climate Adaptive Design Index for the Built Environment (CADI-BE) tool has been developed to assess the adaptive capacity and level of performance of open urban spaces to the stresses due to the increase in global average temperatures. The repercussions of these phenomena cause the occurrence of heatwaves and the urban heat island effect (UHI), bringing out the inability of cities to cope with changes in the climate, making urban open spaces unlivable and no longer the ideal habitat for everyday life and social interactions.

Hard-to-Abate Sectors: The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important option in the portfolio of emission mitigation solutions in scenarios that lead to deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We focus on CCS application in hard-to-abate sectors (cement industry, iron and steel, chemicals) and introduce industrial CCS options into the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a global multi-region multi-sector energy-economic model that provides a basis for the analysis of long-term energy deployment. We use the EPPA model to explore the potential for industrial CCS in different parts of the world, under the assumptions that CCS is the only mitigation option for deep GHG emission reductions in industry and that negative emission options are not available for other sectors of the economy. We evaluate CCS deployment in a scenario that limits the increase in average global surface temperature to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. When industrial CCS is not available, global costs of reaching the target are higher by 12% in 2075 and 71% in 2100 relative to the cost of achieving the policy with CCS. Overall, industrial CCS enables continued growth in the use of energy-intensive goods along with large reductions in global and sectoral emissions. We find that in scenarios with stringent climate policy, CCS in the industry sector is a key mitigation option, and our approach provides a path to projecting the deployment of industrial CCS across industries and regions.

Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.

How Fairness Principles in the Climate Debate Relate to Theories of Distributive Justice

A central question in international climate policy making is how to distribute the burdens of keeping global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In particular, there are four distributional issues: how to allocate the total amount of greenhouse gases that can still be emitted, who should bear the costs of mitigation, who should bear the costs of adaptation to unavoidable climate change, and who should bear the costs of residual climate damage. Regarding these distributional issues the academic literature offers a plethora of fairness principles, such as ‘polluter pays’, ‘beneficiary pays’, ‘equal per capita rights’, ‘grandfathering’, ‘ability to pay’, ‘historical responsibility’ and ‘cost effectiveness’. Remarkably, there is a theoretical gap between these principles and the central theories of distributive justice in moral and political philosophy. As a consequence, it is unclear how these principles are related, whether they can be combined or are mutually exclusive, and what the fundamental underlying values are. This paper aims to elucidate that debate. Understanding the different underlying values may facilitate bridge-building and movement in negotiation positions.

Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.

An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on winter wheat coupled with fine-scale weather outcomes between 1981-2007 to examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. We decompose the total impact of weather variables through both the yield and harvested acreage channels. We find that an insignificant portion—both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance—of the production losses are due to reduced harvested acres (i.e., crop abandonment). The proportion harvested only account for 14.88% and 21.71% of the total damages under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and neither effect is statistically significant. An implication of this result implies that studies that only examine climate impacts on harvested yields are not significantly underestimating the climate change impacts on production.

Brief communication: Do 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 °C matter for the future evolution of Alpine glaciers?

Abstract. With the Paris Agreement, the urgency of limiting ongoing anthropogenic climate change has been recognised. More recent discussions have focused on the difference of limiting the increase in global average temperatures below 1.0, 1.5, or 2.0 ∘C compared to preindustrial levels. Here, we assess the impacts that such different scenarios would have on both the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps and the water resources they provide. Our results show that even half-degree differences in global temperature targets have important implications for the changes predicted until 2100, and that – for the most optimistic scenarios – glaciers might start to partially recover, owing to possibly decreasing temperatures after the end of the 21st century.

Time-frequency dependency of temperature and sea level: a global perspective.

The importance of environmental sustainability to all human aspects has been spiking as the world keeps evolving. Economies around the world are on the move to ensure sustainable economic development and a clean atmosphere through the use of renewable energy sources. Since the end of the nineteenth century, it is recognized that a global mean sea level rise speed about 1.7 ± 0.2 mm/year, but the rate has increased to 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/year. In this study, we investigated the dynamic linkage between average temperature and sea level within the global framework covering 1881 to 2013. The paper employs wavelet analysis to investigate the short-term and long-run causal links between global average temperature anomalies and global sea level. In this respect, our findings indicate that (i) a significant vulnerability in global average temperature and sea level is observed over the selected study period; (ii) global average temperature has considerable power for predicting sea level, particularly in the long-term. The causality test revealed a bi-directional causal relationship between global average temperature and sea level and unidirectional flow from global average temperature to sea level. And the study confirms the "conservation hypothesis," and it has long-run implications for environmental quality. Thus, minimizing global average temperature anomalies is a decisive ingredient for minimizing sea level rise. Based on these outcomes, both developed and developing countries' policymakers should support the Paris agreement (COP21) agreement to control CO2 emissions growth. Policymakers should encourage the usage of environmentally friendly energy sources that will enhance environmental quality and hold the increase in global average temperature below 1.5 °C.

Atmospheric Emissions Effects and Mechanism

Humanity's relationship with the environment is a delicate balance. Since the industrial revolution, the world's population has grown at an exponential rate, and this has a major environmental effect. Deforestation, pollution, and global climate change are just a few of the negative consequences of population and technological growth. Particulates, Sulphur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are the primary pollutants that harm our health. These contaminants may be directly emitted into the atmosphere (primary pollutants) or formed in the atmosphere from primary pollutants reacting (secondary pollutants. Tropospheric ozone is created When water reacts with volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the presence of sunlight, nitrogen dioxide is produced. is formed when NO is oxidized, as Sulphur dioxide or nitrogen oxides react with water, acid rain results. These contaminants have negative consequences for human health (low concentrations cause eye, nose, throat, and lung irritation) and the environment, as they contribute to acidification and eutrophication, as well as the formation of particulates and tropospheric ozone (photochemical smog). Electricity production and the combustion of fossil fuels in high-temperature manufacturing processes is the primary source of SO2 and NOx. Particulates are as a direct product of any type of industrial combustion or heating. Particulates and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are two types of contaminants. also linked to traffic and transportation. All these molecules of greenhouse gases that penetrate the atmosphere It's called atmospheric emissions. In order to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of maintaining a 1.5°C average global temperature increase, net CO2 emissions must reach zero by 2050, implying that the amount entering the atmosphere must exceed the amount absorbed by natural and technological sinks.

Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Impact of a Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy in Mozambique: Towards NDC Ambition and Recommendations to Effectively Measure, Report, and Verify Its Implementation

Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA) have agreed on the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and are pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C. Countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) comprise the main framework used to achieve this. In this context, Mozambique′s NDC includes, amongst other actions, increased renewable energy (RE) generation. This article presents the results of the assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of the Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff (REFIT), using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system model, in order to determine its potential contribution to Mozambique′s NDC’s goals and RE targets. Results from this study show that the REFIT regulation can be expected to contribute to reducing 0.34 MtCO2eq (0.6% of the NDC target for the electricity sector) by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. However, the NDC ambition could be enhanced through the REFIT and contribute to reducing 2.54 MtCO2eq (4.3% of the NDC target for the electricity sector) by 2030. The article further discusses the requirements for a robust measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system for climate policies, using REFIT as a case study, to facilitate effective tracking of NDC progress and achievement and transparent reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).