Increase In Annual Change Research Articles

Long-Term Apparent Temperature, Extreme Temperature Exposure, and Depressive Symptoms: A Longitudinal Study in China.

Temperature is increasingly understood to impact mental health. However, evidence of the long-term effect of temperature exposure on the risk of depressive symptoms is still scarce. Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), this study estimated associations between long-term apparent temperature, extreme temperature, and depressive symptoms in middle-aged and older adults. Results showed that a 1 °C increase or decrease from optimum apparent temperature (12.72 °C) was associated with a 2.7% (95% CI: 1.3%, 4.1%) and 2.3% (95% CI: 1.1%, 3.5%) increased risk of depressive symptoms, respectively. This study also found that each percent increase in annual change in ice days, cool nights, cool days, cold spell durations, and tropical nights was associated with higher risk of depressive symptoms, with HRs (95%CI) of 1.289 (1.114-1.491), 2.064 (1.507-2.825), 1.315 (1.061-1.631), 1.645 (1.306-2.072), and 1.344 (1.127-1.602), respectively. The results also indicated that people living in northern China have attenuated risk of low apparent temperature. Older people were also observed at higher risk relating to more cool nights. Middle-aged people, rural residents, and people with lower household income might have higher related risk of depressive symptoms due to increased tropical nights. Given the dual effect of climate change and global aging, these findings have great significance for policy making and adaptive strategies for long-term temperature and extreme temperature exposure.

Long-term Chronological Changes in Very Asymmetric Keratoconus.

To investigate chronological changes in patients with very asymmetric keratoconus (KC) by Scheimpflug-based corneal tomographic evaluation. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 382 patients with KC attending a university hospital. Patients who were diagnosed with KC in one eye and forme fruste keratoconus in the other eye at the last visit and followed up with Scheimpflug-based tomographic corneal imaging were included. The anterior radius of curvature (ARC) and posterior radius of curvature (PRC) obtained at a 3.0-mm optical zone and the thinnest pachymetry reading of corneal thickness (Tmin), were used to investigate the chronological changes in tomographic parameters. Twenty-six patients aged 16 to 66 years met the inclusion criteria. The mean observation period was 6 years and 4 months. There was a significant increase in annual change in PRC with a longer follow-up period after initial examination (P = 0.011). Moreover, a greater increase in annual change in ARC was observed in patients in whom the initial examination was performed at a younger age than in those in whom it was performed at an older age (P < 0.001). On the basis of tomographic evaluation, even if the measured values are almost stable and within normal limits, a long-term clinical follow-up is warranted in forme fruste keratoconus eyes. Younger patients with very asymmetric keratoconus should be monitored carefully.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Crisis Preparedness Collaboration: Resources, Turbulence and Network Change in Swedish Municipalities

Societal responses to climate change risks and hazards increasingly involve interorganizational collaboration across policy areas, sectors, and levels of government. Different views exist in the literature regarding changes in such collaborative arrangements; whereas some argue that maintaining stability of collaborative networks is a precursor for effective crisis management, others maintain that network adaptation is necessary to cope with complex risks and rude surprises. This controversy turns the spotlight on the more fundamental question of what influences changes in collaborative networks in this area. Using survey data on municipality managers in Sweden, this study presents evidence of a dramatic increase in annual change of interorganizational ties while the total magnitude of ties to different types of actors has essentially remained constant over time. To explain these developments, the study builds from resource dependency theory (RDT) and explores the relationship between resources, environmental turbulence, and network change. The findings suggest that RDT has limited explanatory value in this case; no association was found between resources, turbulence, and network change. An alternative hypothesis is introduced suggesting that changes in networking strategies are a function of outside pressure to collaborate and uncertainty about collaborative practices and the benefits of collaboration, which feed an experimental approach to networking.

Features of climate change and their effects on glacier snow melting in Xinjiang, China

The features of climate change and their effects on glacier snow melting in the past 50years (1961–2010) in Xinjiang were studied. Regional climate data for 49 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains and the northern and southern areas of Xinjiang were collected with the aid of techniques such as climatological statistical diagnosis, regional climate models, remote sensing, and geographic information system. The annual average temperature displayed a rising trend across the Tianshan mountainous area and both areas of Xinjiang. The trend was particularly apparent in winter and autumn with the rate of increase in the annual average minimum temperature being significantly higher than that of the maximum temperature. Rainfall also tended to increase in all three areas over the 50-year period, with the magnitude of change being highest in the mountainous area followed by northern Xinjiang and then southern Xinjiang. As a result of the rising temperatures, there was a negative material balance among the region's glaciers, of which the year 1982/1983 was the key year for the development of Tianshan mountain glacier snow. After this date, glacial ablation intensified with an annual change increase in average temperature of 1°C, leading to a glacier material balance change of about 300mm. To establish rainfall and temperature sequences for three regional climate change scenarios in the 2011–2050 period, we adopted the delta method using actual measurements during the 1961–2000 period against corrected data from rainfall and temperature simulations. All three scenarios indicated that temperatures will continue to increase, that the increase in rainfall may decrease in mountainous regions but will increase in the basin, and that the speed of glacial ablation in Xinjiang will continue to accelerate.

Change in Frailty and Risk of Death in Older Persons

The authors developed and validated a continuous composite measure of frailty and examined its rate of change in 832 older persons with annual evaluations for up to 8 years. In generalized estimating equation models adjusted for age, sex, and education, there was a significant increase in frailty during follow-up. In a proportional hazards model controlling for age, sex, education, and baseline frailty, each 1-unit increase in annual change in frailty was associated with an almost 5 times the risk of mortality. Using a continuous measure, the authors document that frailty is progressive in some older persons and that its rate of progression is associated with mortality.