Inconsistent Decisions Research Articles

An analysis of intertemporal inconsistency through the hyperbolic factor

Intertemporal choices play a fundamental role in the lives of individuals, and the Discounted Utility model is the essential framework for describing decision makers’ attitudes in front of alternatives structured over multiple periods. The classical formulation of the model assumes constant preferences over time, i.e., it assumes that individuals’ choices are consistent. Empirical evidence, however, shows that individuals’ preferences do not respond to this assumption, generating temporally inconsistent decisions. This paper addresses the problem of temporal inconsistency in order to interpret and describe anomalous choices, i.e., not rationalizable from a theoretical point of view, through the cognitive distortions of the decision-maker. Indeed, even if we assume that the investor is a rational subject, behavioral finance suggests that an anomaly is part of the human being and must be recognized as a systematic condition of the decision-making process. Exploiting the relationship between the rate of impatience and temporal preference, this work aims to demonstrate that the degree of decrease in impatience quantifies the weight of emotional drives in the anomalies of intertemporal choices. An experimental approach based on constructing the hyperbolic factor for each individual in different contexts is presented to test our results. The variability in the collected data highlights that individuals’ behavior is very different, suggesting the need to project strategies in personalized finance.

Arrangement model for the implementation of pledge of shares execution for a public company by private sale to create sustainable economic development

Since 2020, the pledge of shares has been re-recognized as one of the efforts for business development, as an example of which will be carried out by PT Pegadaian after the merger with PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia. This fact shows that Pledge of Shares has developed as a new trend in economic development, especially in limited liability companies. However, in Indonesia, this trend growth has not been matched by a regulatory system that guarantees legal protection for debtors, especially in the Pledge Of Shares Execution for a Public Company, which are carried out by private sale. This condition has created many legal vacuums, which have led to inconsistent court decisions regarding the pledge of shares execution in public companies. Therefore, according to the above, through this writing, the author aims to describe a regulatory pattern that can create a protection mechanism for debtors related to the Pledge of Shares Execution for a Public Company by private Sale—aiming to provide recommendations on regulatory patterns based on a comparison of the pledge of shares execution for public companies in several countries that have a frequency of active business transaction activities with Indonesia, namely Singapore and the United States of America, in the hope of providing a comprehensive reference to determine the regulatory pattern that suits the needs Indonesia to produce sustainable economic development. The preparation of this writing was made using a normative juridical method. So that through the results of this writing, it can be an alternative solution to the legal vacuum.

Police Decision-Making in the Absence of Evidence-Based Guidelines: Assessment of Alcohol-Intoxicated Eyewitnesses.

Regarding police procedures with alcohol-intoxicated witnesses, Swedish police officers have previously reported inconsistent and subjective decisions when interviewing these potentially vulnerable witnesses. Most officers have also highlighted the need for national policy guidelines aiding in conducting investigative interviews with intoxicated witnesses. The aims of the two studies presented here were to investigate whether (1) police officers’ inconsistent interview decisions are attributable to a lack of research-based knowledge; (2) their decision to interview, as well as their perceptions of the witnesses’ credibility could be influenced by scientific research; and (3) police officers decision-making and perceptions of witness credibility are biased by pre-existing social norms. In two separate randomized online experiments, police professionals and recruits (Study 1, N = 43; Study 2, N = 214) watched a recorded fictive witness interview to which they were asked to rate the probability of interviewing the witness, the witness’ credibility, and to estimate the witness’ level of intoxication. Results showed that interview probability and perceived witness credibility were affected by witness intoxication level. While it cannot be stated definitely from the present research, these findings provided indications that police officers and recruits lacked research-based knowledge. Results also showed that interview probability, but not perceptions of credibility, was influenced by a research-based message. In line with research, interview probability for the most intoxicated witness increased after reading the message. Unexpectedly, neither interview probability nor witness credibility was affected by social norms. The current findings added to the legal psychology literature by showing that a breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) as low as .04% was enough for police officers and recruits to consider intoxicated witnesses less credible than sober witnesses. Findings also indicated that, despite the lower credibility assessment, police may have some understanding that these witnesses can be interviewed at low intoxication levels (i.e., around .04%). However, this willingness to interview intoxicated witnesses ceased at a BrAC lower than the levels where research has found intoxicated witnesses as reliable as sober witnesses (i.e., BrAC < .10%). Future directions for research and policy development as well as theoretical and practical implications of the present findings are discussed.

Identification and Regulation of Repeated Prosecution in Civil Litigation

In 2015, China Supreme People’s Court for the first time issued a judicial interpretation on civil procedure. In order to address the persistent problem of repeated prosecution of parties abusing their litigation rights in civil proceedings, the court makes provision for repeated prosecutions, so that it can be followed during trials. Undeniably, this judicial interpretation has filled the gaps in the law, but there are still some problems in its application. At present, Article 247 of The Judicial Interpretation of Civil Procedure Law stipulates that the standard of repeated prosecution should be “two same” or “three same.” However, if only a formal review is conducted, the system will be discredited, and if it is subject to substantive review, it may lead to inconsistent judicial decisions in different places; therefore, it is disadvantageous to judicial authority and the understanding and application of the basic system of civil action. In view of this, it is necessary for us to examine whether this constitutes a repeated prosecution.

Multiattribute Modeling for Oil Condition Assessment Considering Uncertainties

Lubricating oil carries the primary wear failure information of the critical tribological components and, therefore, severs for the condition-based maintenance of equipment. However, the oil condition assessment (OCA) presents low reliability due to the uncertainties originating from the variable working conditions and the redundant indicators. To address the uncertainties with multiple indicators, a knowledge-guided three-layer model is established for characterizing the multiattribute oil state. Furthermore, data dispersion is considered by assigning fuzzy probability among the attribute layer. The inconsistent decisions are solved by improved evidential reasoning (ER) embedding inference rules in the state layer. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified using the real-world lubricant oil monitoring data from vehicle engines.

Influence of the Pandemic on Change of Everyday Practices of Volgograd Residents: Gender Differences (Based on the Results of Applied Sociological Research)

The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), which swept the whole, at the very beginning of its spread (early 2020) created an almost experimental situation in which "border practices" were fully revealed, demonstrating the attitude of the population to issues of morality and law. The COVID-19 pandemic that swept the whole word is viewed by us a factor provoking human behavior. The article presents the results of an applied sociological study of changes in the daily practices of Volgograd residents. The results of a sociological study conducted among the residents of Volgograd are presented. Information gathering method – focus group discussion. The main technical parameters of the study are indicated. The formulated conclusions make it possible not only to record the change in the habitual practices of townspeople, but also to present the socioeconomic situation as a whole. Similarities and differences in the behavior of men и women are indicated. So women are more inclined to demonstrate behavior, which can be described as "everything doubtful is prohibited", while men are inclined to a different model – "much controversial is acceptable". Citizens assess the pandemic as a non-standard, undetermined situation, contradictory and inconsistent decisions are made in this case. citizens describe the situation of the pandemic in a negative aspect: distrust of the authorities through the refusal to view the news, violation of personal space, difficulties of interaction and communication in a confined space of the home, fighting their own fears, spending on the purchase of medical devices, antiviral drugs, paying for the Internet. Passive survival models are common, these models are aimed at saving money, more rational spending of the family budget. Active models are not involved due to the lack of jobs in the city. The most unexpected conclusion was that the biggest fear that haunts the city dwellers are the fear of lack of money, which even supplants the fear of contracting the COVID-19.

Deep reinforcement learning based scheduling within production plan in semiconductor fabrication

In the semiconductor industry, efficient production planning and scheduling decisions are required to enhance the manufacturing productivity of a company as the system is complicated due to a re-entry characteristic and requires a long production lead time. Production planning is implemented before scheduling and is important for successful manufacturing operations. However, if scheduling at the operation level cannot execute the production plan, failures occur because of inconsistent decisions. Therefore, scheduling needs to fulfill the production plan to ensure realistic decision-making processes for the companies aiming for economic growth and global competitiveness. In this study, deep reinforcement learning (RL) is employed to deal with a scheduling process operating within the production plan. As the algorithm of the deep RL, Deep Q-network is conjugated, and a novel state, action, and reward are suggested to optimize the scheduling policy. As a result, the performance of the proposed deep RL method is in comparison with other dispatching rules, and the proposed method outperforms the other scheduling methods in diverse cases.

Techno-economic efficiencies of the purse-seiners in the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey)

Overcapacity and low economic returns have been long ending problems for the Turkish marine fisheries while various conflicting and inadequate fisheries regulations under inconsistent political decisions were developed over many decades. Purse-seine fishery, as one of the biggest marine fishery sub-sectors, has a pioneering socio-ecological influence within the marine fisheries sector of Turkey. In this study, we examined the technical efficiencies of the Turkish purse-seine vessels along the Aegean coasts of Turkey. To implement this analysis, we first collected a data set of technical and economic dimensions of active Turkish purse-seine vessels in the Aegean Sea. Then, we used two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approaches, including input-oriented bootstrapped DEA under constant and various returns-to-scale technologies. In the first stage, we calculated bootstrapped efficiencies across vessels by using technical factors of fisheries production and harvest value as input/output factors. At the second stage, we performed an in-depth analysis of the endogenous determinants of the efficiency scores by using the statistical models under various statistical specifications. We found that most of the purse seine vessels in fleet segment 1 (<24 m) got low-efficiency scores (<0.30) while efficiency scores of fleet segment 2 (≥24 m) emerged to have scores that were homogeneously distributed between 0 and 1. Landing amounts and landing values of fleet segment 1 appeared to have superior efficient frontier levels compared with fleet segment 2 although fleet segment 2 had substantially positive relationships with the predicted efficiency scores. Higher engine power, as well as higher numbers of crew onboard, did not statistically explain neither desired efficiency scores nor expected landings and market values. Overall, various excess production inputs, including gross tonnage, engine power, total generator power, lamp boat generator power, were predicted to be in excess use. To conclude, fisheries managers should account for the operational performance of the fishing vessels to better design optimal fisheries policies in the future.

NLM-HS: Navigation Learning Model Based on a Hippocampal-Striatal Circuit for Explaining Navigation Mechanisms in Animal Brains.

Neurophysiological studies have shown that the hippocampus, striatum, and prefrontal cortex play different roles in animal navigation, but it is still less clear how these structures work together. In this paper, we establish a navigation learning model based on the hippocampal–striatal circuit (NLM-HS), which provides a possible explanation for the navigation mechanism in the animal brain. The hippocampal model generates a cognitive map of the environment and performs goal-directed navigation by using a place cell sequence planning algorithm. The striatal model performs reward-related habitual navigation by using the classic temporal difference learning algorithm. Since the two models may produce inconsistent behavioral decisions, the prefrontal cortex model chooses the most appropriate strategies by using a strategy arbitration mechanism. The cognitive and learning mechanism of the NLM-HS works in two stages of exploration and navigation. First, the agent uses a hippocampal model to construct the cognitive map of the unknown environment. Then, the agent uses the strategy arbitration mechanism in the prefrontal cortex model to directly decide which strategy to choose. To test the validity of the NLM-HS, the classical Tolman detour experiment was reproduced. The results show that the NLM-HS not only makes agents show environmental cognition and navigation behavior similar to animals, but also makes behavioral decisions faster and achieves better adaptivity than hippocampal or striatal models alone.

How Consistent Are Consumers in Their Decisions? Investigation of Houseplant Purchasing.

This paper examines the impact of intrinsic consumer attributes on decision consistency in houseplant purchasing intentions. Subjects reported their likelihood to buy (LTB) for themselves and as a gift at perceived bargain and getting expensive price levels. The sample was analyzed according to those who switched their LTB ratings to relatively lower values versus subjects who did not by using their demographic characteristics and responses to plant buying behavior questions. Secondly, subjects who had high initial purchase intents were analyzed versus those who had low initial purchase intents. The results indicate that inconsistent purchase decisions are more likely to occur at the perceived getting expensive price level than the perceived bargain price points. Additionally, there are very few demographic differences among the plant buyers who are consistent with their purchase intent versus inconsistent, indicating that external environmental cues may have more of an influence on purchase consistency than intrinsic cues. This information can be utilized by greenhouse and retail firms to understand when a consumer is less likely to change their plant purchase decision with a high initial intent. These price points can help firms optimize their current price offerings within the market and create dialogues with partnering box stores.

Genetic Diversity of Stellate Sturgeon in the Lower Danube River: The Impact of Habitat Contraction upon a Critically Endangered Population

One of the last wild populations of the critically endangered stellate sturgeon (Acipenser stellatus) survives in the Danube River. Limited knowledge about the genetic structure, ecology, and evolution of this species led to poor and inconsistent management decisions with an increased risk for species extinction in the wild. Here we show the results of genetic structure screening of the Danube River wild population over 12 years timespan. Our research does not bring evidence of population recovery. No genetic structuring was identified at the mitochondrial level concerning spawning migration timing, sampling locations, and developmental stages. Eleven maternal lineages were revealed based on restriction fragment lengths analysis of the D-loop region, with one haplotype as the most frequent. While this could be the result of a massive restocking activity using a reduced number of spawners, our data does not support it. The selection of mitochondrial haplotypes under the pressure of habitat contraction and the narrower range of temperature variation since dams’ construction on the river could explain the observed distribution. Several factors of managerial concern are discussed. Our results provide baseline data on the mtDNA diversity in a critically endangered species of exceptionally high socioeconomic and conservation interest.

A Strategic Approach to Crisis Management 2019 Golestan Province Floods by Using SWOT Method

INTRODUCTION: At the time of natural disasters, various organizations are responsible for crisis management. Each organization holds responsibilities corresponding to its mission statement. The absence of coordination is one of the primary obstacles regarding crisis management at the time of the disaster, caused by inconsistent decisions and a lack of mutual perception of the crisis. The more compatible the strategy selection process of organizations is, the fewer natural disaster casualties will be. METHODS: This study aims to strategically analyze the crisis management of April 2019 Golestan floods through the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) method, highlighting the role and performance of the Red Crescent Society. The selected tool was a descriptive-analytic field-based documentation survey questionnaire providing the chance to investigate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Finally, we determined the optimal strategy. FINDINGS: The results revealed that the average values of internal and external factors for all units were above 2.5. Therefore, SO is the optimal strategy whose emphasis is on using the strengths and opportunities faced by the Red Crescent Society to the fullest and other flood management bodies. CONCLUSION: Considering that the crisis-management-related agencies ought to operate as a unified system to decrease casualties, the need to adopt proper strategies to enhance coordination in associated organizations is one of the leading priorities of Golestan Province.

Environmental and Human Rights Counterclaims in International Investment Arbitration: at the Crossroads of Domestic and International Law

ABSTRACT Recently, environmental and human rights (EHR) counterclaims in investment arbitration have attracted much attention as a vehicle to recalibrate the investor–state relationship. However, until now, successful instances of EHR counterclaims have been admittedly rare. As explained in this paper, some of the major barriers to EHR counterclaims in investment arbitration, and some of the concerns associated with them, are rooted in the domestic law basis of such counterclaims. Contrary to the position of several commentators, this paper argues that the grounding of EHR counterclaims on international law is neither practical nor beneficial, and EHR counterclaims are necessarily based on domestic law. Therefore, when investment arbitral tribunals adjudicate EHR counterclaims, they essentially act as an alternative to domestic courts. This has several implications. First, on questions of jurisdiction and admissibility of EHR counterclaims, decisions of states and arbitral tribunals essentially turn on the pros and cons of having these claims adjudicated by investment arbitral tribunals as opposed to domestic courts. Second, weaknesses in domestic rules, including the difficulty of holding shareholders accountable, would carry over to EHR counterclaims. Such problems can only be efficiently tackled at the level of domestic law. Third, as revealed from the inconsistent decisions in Perenco and Burlington on the merits of the environmental counterclaims, having investment arbitral tribunals adjudicate domestic law-based EHR counterclaims may cause certain concerns. For EHR counterclaims to play a more beneficial role, decision-makers must bear in mind these factors and concerns when taking their policy choices.

Bounded Rationality in Compulsive Consumption

The standard microeconomic assumption is that consumers’ choices maximize consumers’ utility. This theoretical article challenges this assumption by presenting a framework of an extreme case: compulsive consumption. Backed by a wide range of existing empirical evidence it is shown by the example of pathological gamblers that some consumers (1) have inconsistent preferences, (2) underestimate the time horizon and the frequency of consumption, and (3) underestimate the costs and overestimate the benefits of consumption. The results do not necessarily violate rational choice theory if interpreted as intra-personal externalities. By applying the perspective of picoeconomics, it is possible to reconcile fully rational but competing agents within an individual with inconsistent aggregate decisions. Yet, from a welfare perspective, the results imply that bounded rationality can be interpreted as a source of inefficiency and can thus constitute a rationale for regulatory intervention.

Bats, objectivity, and viral spillover risk.

What should the best practices be for modeling zoonotic disease risks, e.g. to anticipate the next pandemic, when background assumptions are unsettled or evolving rapidly? This challenge runs deeper than one might expect, all the way into how we model the robustness of contemporary phylogenetic inference and taxonomic classifications. Different and legitimate taxonomic assumptions can destabilize the putative objectivity of zoonotic risk assessments, thus potentially supporting inconsistent and overconfident policy decisions.

The effect of decision time horizon on short termism: An experimental approach

Short-termism (i.e., the sub-optimal favouring of short-term performance over long-term performance) is generally explained as an outcome of the agency relationship whereby self-interested managers and/or stock market pressures distort the balance between short and long-term performance. We investigate if short termism (Crilly, 2017; Reilly, Souder, &amp; Ranucci, 2016) is due to cognitive bias (temporal distortion) rather than agency costs. We test these hypotheses with an experimental approach by applying a 3x2 factorial design to manipulate temporal distortion on 60 non-conflicted decision-makers. Results suggest that individuals make inconsistent investment decisions based on differing payout time horizons. Participants faced with simple comparisons between investment opportunities were consistent across different time periods and followed a model of rational decision-making. In contrast, more complex decisions led to intertemporal inconsistency. We provide evidence that: 1) individuals on the whole struggle to deal with incorporating time into business decisions in a consistent way causing us to question the link between short-termism and agency theory; 2) principals likely view investment decisions inconsistently across time and so are a cause of sub-optimal investment decision-making and 3) we need to look beyond studies of moral hazard associated with agency theory and/or myopic market pricing when investigating short-termism.

Effecting Consistency in Investor-State Dispute Settlement Through the Introduction of Precedent in a Multilateral Investment Court

In recent years, the current Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) system has been a subject of reform discussions triggered by several factors, amongst which includes the lack of consistency in ISDS decisions commonly rendered by arbitration tribunals. This undesirable fact places the current ISDS system in conflict with essential rule of law values such as stability, reliability, predictability, and equality - which inevitably diminish the legitimacy of the current system. Undeniably, the un-uniform investment treaties underlying ISDS decisions is a valid justification for divergent outcomes, however, the recognition that a majority of investment treaties share similar if not identical legal standards also makes the argument for consistent ISDS decisions legitimate and in fact necessary to foster the harmonious development of investment law across the network of identical treaty standards. To this end, the use of “precedent” is critical in achieving the aforesaid goal. Notably, albeit informally, the use of precedent is already a recognised practice in ISDS, yet inconsistent decisions persist. As a turning point, this article advocates that consistency in ISDS decisions can be best achieved through the “formal introduction of a system of precedent”, in “a Multilateral Investment Court (MIC)”, which is possible without jeopardizing the inherent differences contained in International Investment Agreements (IIA).

Multicriteria Selection of Friction Stir Welded Al-Tib2 Metal Matrix Composites using WASPAS to Improve Composite Development and Design

The unique area of friction stir welding that involves Al-TiB2 composite development stirs controversy and fails to offer a clear understanding of how to choose the best composite among alternatives without subjectivity. At present, the experienced fabricator uses intuition in judgement, leading to wrong or inconsistent decisions. In this paper, the WASPAS multicriteria model is deployed to choose the best Al-TiB2 composite among options using tensile strength, ductility and microhardness as attributes. The procedure generally entails normalization, preference score and ranking determination and literature data was used. The emerging conclusion from this study is that irrespective of the weight determination method and the multicriteria model adopted to evaluate the alternative fabricated Al-TiB2 composites, the Al-10%TiB2 and Al6065 based alloy always reveal as the best and worst composites, respectively, even under varied normalisation methods. The research confirmed that multicriteria analysis is a potential objective method to choose among fabricated alternatives. The work showed that there is scope to evade the consequences of subjectivity in composite decision making by attaching adequate weights to the deciding factors thereby avoiding misguidance and incorrect decision making. Furthermore, multicriteria models offer novel approaches to understand the relative preference of fabricating composites to one another in the metal matrix composite development area.

Місце технологій в роботі управлінського персоналу підприємств

Анотація. В статті розглянуто питання управлінських технологій. Висвітлено одну з важливих проблем сучасного управління – відсутність чіткого розуміння змісту технологічних процесів кожної окремої управлінської функції. Підкреслено, що це може і досить часто стає джерелом неузгоджених управлінських рішень, унеможливлює їх ефективну реалізацію.&#x0D; Виходячи з цього, в роботі запропоновано звернути увагу на створення технологічних карт для окремих управлінських процесів для кожного окремо взятого підприємства як джерела уніфікації управлінських процесів та чинник мінімізації конфліктних ситуацій. Ці документи мають значну історію створення, тому працівники більшості підприємств мають для цього узагальнені навички. Проблемним питанням є те, що сучасні фахівці більше звертають увагу на технологічні процеси окремого виду діяльності, галузі, тоді як управлінські процеси знаходяться поза їх увагою.&#x0D; В статті запропоновано здійснювати формування технологічних карт управлінських процесів в два етапи. Перший повинен забезпечити підготовчі роботи, спиратися на аналіз існуючих потреб підприємства, його ресурсів, особливо кадрових, умов середовища. Паралельно на цьому етапі запропоновано здійснити аналіз можливого використання кожної з управлінських технологій з виділенням декількох пріоритетних для використання саме на цьому підприємстві, для цієї функції. Результатом першого етапу повинен стати вибір декількох найбільш прийнятних технологій, оцінка засобів їх реалізації, наявність виконавців, очікуваних витрат на процес тощо.&#x0D; Другий етап розкриває поелементний зміст самої технологічної карти та процес її послідовного формування працівниками підприємства. Початкові дії даного етапу, як і попереднього, на наш погляд, повинні містити оцінку достатності ресурсного забезпечення трудового процесу з усіма уточненнями, з оцінкою кожного елементу технологічної карти. Було надано увагу критеріям реалізації кожного з етапів як чинника їх узгодження та можливого джерела контролю результатів.&#x0D; В статті доведено, що впровадження технологічної карти управлінських процесів забезпечить як спрощення діяльності управлінського персоналу, в тому числі керування ним, так і захистить виконавців від можливого свавілля керівника або колеги.&#x0D; Ключові слова: технології управління, інноваційні технології, технологічна карта, трудовий процес, виконавець, керівник, оцінка, робочий час, функція, робочий процес, узгодженість дій

Industry 3.5 for optimizing chiller configuration for energy saving and an empirical study for semiconductor manufacturing

Since many industries may not be able to migrate for Industry 4.0 directly, Industry 3.5 is proposed as a hybrid strategy. While facility is crucial for product quality for hightech manufacturing, manufacturers have focused mainly on facility stability and paid less attention for power saving. In practice, the operation of chillers relies on domain experts leading to inconsistent decisions and operational inefficiency. Although a number of studies have proposed intelligent facilities with similar visions of Industry 4.0, they may not be ready to be adopted in the operating facilities. Furthermore, limitations of existing approaches can be traced in part to the lack of an integrated framework within which interrelated decisions can be modeled and related to the optimal configuration of chillers. Following Industry 3.5 stragey, this study aims to develop an approach that integrates a cooling load forecasting model based on SARIMAX model, a prediction model for the operation efficiency of the chillers, and chiller health evaluation model to optimize the combination of operating chillers to fulfill the cooling load demand and minimize the electricity consumption given the existing infrastructure. To estimate the validity, an empirical study was conducted in a leading semiconductor company for carbon reduction and green production. The results have shown its practical viability and the developed solution has been implemented in this company with significant power saving.