Thousands of plants, fungi, and lichen species are traded every year. Although sustainable use is critical for livelihoods and biodiversity conservation, insufficient data prevent detailed sustainability assessments for most species. How can the sustainability of trade in such data-deficient species be enhanced? We considered a country-level example of 300 medicinal and aromatic plant, fungus, and lichen species traded in tens of thousands of tons worth tens of millions of US dollars in and from Nepal annually. Past interventions have not ensured sustainable trade, leaving species vulnerable to commercial harvesting and threatening rural household incomes, the processing industry, and government revenues. Building on documented evidence and stakeholder involvement, we used a theory of change approach to develop a sustainable management approach. We produced a draft plan (roadmap) by combining interventions proposed at annual key stakeholder dialogue meetings with recommendations extracted from a literature review on the trade and conservation of commercial medicinal and aromatic plants, fungi, and lichens in Nepal. The draft roadmap was discussed at a national workshop with sector-wide stakeholder representation to derive the final roadmap. The literature review showed the 41 causal assumptions and theoretical explanations for actions and outcomes. Feedback mechanisms included 6 bundles of mutually reinforcing actions, such as the relationship between increased cultivation and decreased wild harvesting. The roadmap has 5 pathways: increase cultivation, strengthen local management, support domestic businesses, improve sector governance, and increase international collaboration. Each pathway is associated with 2-5 actions (e.g., hand over high-elevation areas to local communities) that lead to outputs (2-5) (e.g., an increased area under local management) and outcomes (2-6) (e.g., less overharvesting). Accordingly, the roadmap offers stakeholders a structured approach to implement future activities and investments to enhance sustainable trade. The approach can be replicated for other countries and products.
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