Income Elasticity Of Imports Research Articles

A Quantitative Examination of Current Account Dynamics in Equilibrium Models of Barter Economies

This paper provides a numerical analysis of an intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open, barter economy that is subject to random shocks affecting endowments, the terms of trade, and the real interest rate. Equilibrium stochastic processes for macroeconomic aggregates are computed and their properties are compared with observed stylized facts. The model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect, but cannot account for a countercyclical trade balance, the variability of the real exchange rate, and the income elasticity of imports. The results also show that the correlation between the trade balance and the terms of trade, given incomplete insurance markets, is sensitive to changes in preference parameters and in the persistence of exogenous shocks.

A Quantitative Examination of Current Account Dynamics in Equilibrium Models of Barter Economies

This paper provides a numerical analysis of an intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open, barter economy that is subject to random shocks affecting endowments, the terms of trade, and the real interest rate. Equilibrium stochastic processes for macroeconomic aggregates are computed and their properties are compared with observed stylized facts. The model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect, but cannot account for a countercyclical trade balance, the variability of the real exchange rate, and the income elasticity of imports. The results also show that the correlation between the trade balance and the terms of trade, given incomplete insurance markets, is sensitive to changes in preference parameters and in the persistence of exogenous shocks.

WAGHSTUMSBEDINGTE KONFLIKTE ZWISCHEN EXTERNEM GLEICHGEWICHT UND INTERNEN ZIELSETZUNGEN

SUMMARY The price- and income-elasticities of imports and primarily rates of growth and relative price-level changes in the countries involved are the most important determinants of the external situation of a country. Growth and price trends are at the same time important target variables of internal policy. Balance on current account is only achievable if these determinants are related in a certain way both abroad and at home. If the proportions required are not to be realized, conflicts arise between external and internal balance. International co-ordination of growth policies may diminish the danger of such conflicts situations. When a larger number of economic objectives can be managed simultaneously there is also a bigger number of constellations which are compatible with external balance. If on the other hand conditions of growth are very different it is usually not possible to bring in accordance internal and external goals.