Abstract Background and Aims Small, cross-sectional, cohort studies suggest a relationship between low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and risk of developing abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). We here explored the possible association between eGFR and annual eGFR decline with future risk of AAA in a large community-based sample. Method Observational study from the SCREAM project, including participants free from AAA history. We used Cox regression to explore associations between eGFR and the rate of incident AAA and fatal-AAA (followed by death within 30 days). Among those with repeated eGFR tests within a year, we used linear mixed models to explore associations between the annual slope in eGFR and AAA rates. Results We included 1 586,543 eligible participants (mean age 47 years, 53% female, median eGFR 97 ml/min/1.73 m2). During median 7.6 years, 5,248 (0.34%) participants experienced AAA, of which 317 were fatal. In multivariable analyses, compared with individuals with eGFR 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, the rates of AAA and fatal-AAA were higher across lower eGFR: for eGFR 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, the HR of AAA was 1.23 (95% CI 1.09-1.39), and for fatal-AAA was 2.59 (1.71-3.90); for eGFR 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, the HR of AAA was 1.58 (1.31-1.90) and for fatal-AAA was 3.92 (2.28-6.70). Total 639 607 participants had repeated eGFR measures within a year, and experienced 3,416 AAA events during median 8.8 years of follow-up. Compared with participants showing a stable eGFR slope (−1 to 1 mL/min/y), the rate of AAA was 10% higher (HR 1.10 [1.00-1.21]) in those with an eGFR decline of 1-3 mL/min/y, and 30% higher (HR 1.30 [1.03-1.65]) in those with an eGFR decline >3 mL/min/y. Conclusion Both a single point eGFR and the annual slope of eGFR decline were associated with future risks of AAA. The incidence rate of AAA, and particularly fatal AAA, was higher with greater severity of chronic kidney disease or speed of eGFR decline.