Tuberculosis Incidence In Brazil Research Articles

Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030.

To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030. This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p<0.001), followed by an increase between January/2015 and March /2020 (β=0.013; p<0.001). There was a sharp drop in cases in April/2020, with the onset of the pandemic, and acceleration of the increase in cases since then (β=0.025; p<0.001). A projection of 124,245 cases in 2030 was made, with an estimated incidence of 4.64 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants, levels similar to those in the 2000s. The Sarima model proved to be robust, with error of 4.1% when removing the pandemic period. The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.

The Incidence of Tuberculosis in Brazil from 2001 to 2018: Use of Polynomial Regression Combined with a Stochastic Volatility Model

The Incidence of Tuberculosis in Brazil from 2001 to 2018: Use of Polynomial Regression Combined with a Stochastic Volatility Model

Evaluation of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra performance for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in a city with high TB incidence in Brazil.

Since 2018, World Health Organization (WHO) recommended the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra use for pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB diagnosis, and suggested that Xpert Ultra should be tested in various populations, with different geographical and epidemiological settings. Cross-sectional study with prospective data collection. Outpatients aged >18 years with respiratory symptoms suggestive of pulmonary TB were invited to participate. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the test were calculated and compared with the traditional Xpert MTB/RIF. During the study period, 180 patients met the inclusion and were included in the analysis. Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra test was positive in 33 patients (18.3%), and RIF resistance was detected in 1 (3.1%) patient. Considering culture as the gold standard, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra were 100.0% (95% CI 85.2-100.0), 93.6% (95% CI 88.6-96.9), 69.7% (95% CI 55.8-80.7), and 100.0% (95% CI 87.2-100.0), respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.97 for the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra test (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99; p<0.0001). There was no difference statistically significant between sensitivities and specificities of Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (p>0.05). This is the first study in Brazil to evaluate the accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra in individuals with presumptive pulmonary TB. The test showed an excellent sensitivity and a high specificity, demonstrating that it is a useful tool for pulmonary TB diagnosis.

Temporal trend of tuberculosis in Brazil.

The objective was to analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis incidence rates in Brazilian states and regions to identify patterns and inequalities. We carried out an ecological study of incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants aged between 20 and 59 years with tuberculosis in Brazil and in their respective states from 2001 to 2017 according to annual percentage change and joinpoint regression. A significant decrease of -15.1% in the annual variation (95%CI: -27.2; -1.0) was observed in Roraima between the years 2003-2007. In the Central Region, Goiás registered an annual average variation of -2.5% per year (95%CI: -3.6; -1.3). Five out of nine Northeastern states had decreasing annual variations throughout the studied series. Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro were the states of the Southeast that presented decreasing between 2001-2017. In the Southern Region, the state of Paraná was the only one with the same annual variation of -3.7% (95%CI: -4.1; -3.2). In Brazil, the average annual percentage change was -1.8% (95%CI: -2.4; -1.1). The results of this study showed a decline in the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil. However, regional and intra-regional differences were observed. Determining the trend pattern of tuberculosis incidence may assist in the planning and implementation of national tuberculosis control policies.

Geospatial intelligence and health analitycs: Its application and utility in a city with high tuberculosis incidence in Brazil

BackgroundGeospatial Intelligence and Health Analysis have been used to identify tuberculosis (TB) hotspots and to better understand their relationship to social and economic factors. The purpose of this study was to use geospatial intelligence to assess the distribution of TB and its correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) in a city with high TB incidence in Brazil. MethodsWe conducted an ecological study, using National System of Information on Noticeable Disease (SINAN) to identify TB cases. Geocoding was performed using QGIS 2.0 software and Google Maps API 3.0. We applied geospatial intelligence to detect where in the city clustering of TB cases occurred, and assessed the association of an area’s HDI (each one of the components — longevity, education, and income) with TB spatial distribution. ResultsDuring the study period (2011–2013), there were 737 TB cases. TB cases showed heterogeneity across the 29 neighborhoods. The neighborhoods with HDI-income lower than the mean had higher TB incidence (p = 0.036). ConclusionsWe found several hotspots of TB across the 29 neighborhoods, and an inverse association between HDI-income and TB incidence. These findings provide useful information and may help to guide TB control programs.

Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil.

BackgroundIt has been hypothesized that prisons serve as amplifiers of general tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, but there is a paucity of data on this phenomenon and the potential population-level effects of prison-focused interventions. This study (1) quantifies the TB risk for prisoners as they traverse incarceration and release, (2) mathematically models the impact of prison-based interventions on TB burden in the general population, and (3) generalizes this model to a wide range of epidemiological contexts.Methods and findingsWe obtained individual-level incarceration data for all inmates (n = 42,925) and all reported TB cases (n = 5,643) in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2007 through 2013. We matched individuals between prisoner and TB databases and estimated the incidence of TB from the time of incarceration and the time of prison release using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 130 new TB cases diagnosed during incarceration and 170 among individuals released from prison. During imprisonment, TB rates increased from 111 cases per 100,000 person-years at entry to a maximum of 1,303 per 100,000 person-years at 5.2 years. At release, TB incidence was 229 per 100,000 person-years, which declined to 42 per 100,000 person-years (the average TB incidence in Brazil) after 7 years. We used these data to populate a compartmental model of TB transmission and incarceration to evaluate the effects of various prison-based interventions on the incidence of TB among prisoners and the general population. Annual mass TB screening within Brazilian prisons would reduce TB incidence in prisons by 47.4% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 44.4%–52.5%) and in the general population by 19.4% (95% BCI 17.9%–24.2%). A generalized model demonstrates that prison-based interventions would have maximum effectiveness in reducing community incidence in populations with a high concentration of TB in prisons and greater degrees of mixing between ex-prisoners and community members. Study limitations include our focus on a single Brazilian state and our retrospective use of administrative databases.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the prison environment, more so than the prison population itself, drives TB incidence, and targeted interventions within prisons could have a substantial effect on the broader TB epidemic.

Offer of primary care services and detection of tuberculosis incidence in Brazil.

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVETo evaluate the association between the health services offered by primary care teams and the detection of new tuberculosis cases in Brazil.METHODSThis was an ecological study covering all Brazilian municipalities that registered at least one new tuberculosis case (diagnosed between 2012 to 2014 and notified in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases) and with at least one primary care team evaluated by the second cycle of the National Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care (PMAQ-AB). The variables of the PMAQ-AB were classified as proximal or distal, according to their relation with the tuberculosis diagnosis. Then, they were tested hierarchically in multiple models (adjusted by States) using negative binomial regression.RESULTSAn increase of 10% in the primary health care coverage was associated with a decrease of 2.24% in the tuberculosis detection rate (95%CI -3.35– -1.11). Regarding the proximal variables in relation to diagnosis, in the multiple model, the detection of tuberculosis was associated with the proportion of teams that conduct contact investigation (increase in Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR] = 2.97%, 95%CI 2.41–3.53), carry out tuberculosis active case finding (increase in IRR = 2.17%, 95%CI 1.48–2.87), and request culture for mycobacteria (increase in IRR = 1.87%, 95%CI 0.98–2.76).CONCLUSIONSThe variables related to the search actions were positively associated with the detection of new tuberculosis cases, which suggests a significant contribution to the strengthening of the sensitivity of the surveillance system. On the other hand, primary care coverage was inversely associated with the tuberculosis detection rate, which could represent the overall effect of the primary care on transmission control, probably from the identification and early treatment of cases.

Factors associated with tuberculosis treatment delay in patients co-infected with HIV in a high prevalence area in Brazil.

BackgroundWorldwide, about 11% of Tuberculosis (TB) cases occur in people living with HIV (PLHIV) and it is the leading cause of death in this population. An important step towards reducing the incidence and mortality of TB in PLHIV is to reduce the time from onset of symptoms to treatment. Factors related to TB treatment delay therefore need to be understood.MethodsUsing data from a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with TB at the National Institute of Infectious Disease, at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil we conducted a survival analysis to identify factors associated with patient and health care treatment delay. In our analysis we included patients who were co-infected with TB and HIV (n = 201). Patients were followed during the course of their TB treatment and information regarding duration of symptoms, sociodemographics and clinical characteristics were collected at the baseline visit.ResultsThe median time from onset of initial symptoms to prescription of TB treatment (total delay) was 82 days. From initiation of symptoms to first visit at INI clinic (patient delay), the median was 51 days. From first visit to initiation of treatment (health care delay) the median was 16 days. Illiteracy was associated with greater patient delay [Hazard Ratio (HR) = 2.25, CI 95% 1.29–3.94]. Having had a previous episode of TB (HR = 0.53, CI 95% 0.37–0.74) and being married (HR = 0.71, CI 95% 0.54–0.94) were inversely related to patient delay. Illiteracy was also associated with greater health care delay (HR = 2.83, CI 95% 1.25–5.47) in contrast to high viral load (HR = 0.37, CI 95% 0.24–0.54) and weight loss greater than 10% (HR = 0.54, CI 95% 0.37–0.8), both of which were inversely related to health care delay.ConclusionsThis study highlights the existence of factors that lead to greater risk of delayed treatment of TB among patients co-infected with HIV and TB. These include factors that can be assessed through targeted interventions which have implications for improving treatment outcomes and, through reduced duration of infectiousness, reduce the incidence of TB in Brazil.

Impact of smoking on sputum culture conversion and pulmonary tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil: a retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACTObjective:To evaluate the impact of smoking on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) treatment outcomes and the two-month conversion rates for Mycobacterium tuberculosis sputum cultures among patients with culture-confirmed PTB in an area with a moderate incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil. Methods:This was a retrospective cohort study of PTB patients diagnosed and treated at the Thoracic Diseases Institute of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro between 2004 and 2012. Results:Of the 298 patients diagnosed with PTB during the study period, 174 were included in the outcome analysis: 97 (55.7%) were never-smokers, 31 (17.8%) were former smokers, and 46 (26.5%) were current smokers. Smoking was associated with a delay in sputum culture conversion at the end of the second month of TB treatment (relative risk = 3.58 &091;95% CI: 1.3-9.86&093;; p = 0.01), as well as with poor treatment outcomes (relative risk = 6.29 &091;95% CI: 1.57-25.21&093;; p = 0.009). The association between smoking and a positive culture in the second month of treatment was statistically significant among the current smokers (p = 0.027). Conclusions:In our sample, the probability of a delay in sputum culture conversion was higher in current smokers than in never-smokers, as was the probability of a poor treatment outcome.

Household crowding as a potential mediator of socioeconomic determinants of tuberculosis incidence in Brazil.

Although many studies have identified social conditions associated with tuberculosis, contextual and individual factors have rarely been analysed simultaneously. Consequently, we aimed to identify contextual and individual factors associated with tuberculosis incidence in general population in Brazil in 2010. We also assessed whether household crowding mediates the association between socioeconomic determinants and tuberculosis incidence. Individual data of tuberculosis cases were obtained from 5,565 municipalities in Brazil in 2010 (last year of national census), and merged with contextual variables. The associations were evaluated in a multilevel analysis using negative binomial regression. After adjusting for individual factors (age, sex and race) and geographic region, the following contextual factors were associated with tuberculosis incidence rate: AIDS incidence rate [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1.21; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–1.24], unemployment rate (IRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13–1.19), Gini coefficient (IRR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.08), proportion of inmates (IRR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.09–1.14), mean per capita household income (IRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91–0.97) and primary care coverage (IRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92–0.96). Inclusion of household crowding in the multivariate model led to a loss of the associations of both Gini coefficient and mean per capita household income. In conclusion, our findings suggest that income inequality and poverty, as determinants of tuberculosis incidence, can be mediated by household crowding. Moreover, prison population can represent a potential social reservoir of tuberculosis in Brazil and should be addressed as a priority for disease control. Finally, the negative association between primary health coverage and tuberculosis incidence highlights the importance of this level of care as a strategy to control this disease.

Ethnic and Racial Inequalities in Notified Cases of Tuberculosis in Brazil.

ObjectiveThis study analysed clinical and sociodemographic aspects and follow-up for notified cases of tuberculosis (TB) and explored inequalities in incidence rates and outcome by colour or race and the geographic macro-regions of Brazil.MethodsThis paper reports the results of a population-based descriptive epidemiological study of all notified cases of TB in Brazil during the period from 01/01/2008 to 31/12/2011. We analysed sociodemographic and clinical variables according to colour or race (white, black, Asian, mixed, and indigenous) and geographic macro-regions of the country (North, Northeast, Central-West, South, and Southeast).ResultsDuring the study period, the average incidence of TB in Brazil was 36.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with the highest rates occurring in the North and Southeast regions. The analysis of TB notifications by colour or race revealed that the indigenous population presented the highest incidence rates in all macro-regions except the South, where higher rates were reported in black patients. ‘Cured’ was the most frequently reported treatment outcome for all skin colour categories. The highest cure rate occurred among the indigenous population (76.8%), while the lowest cure rate occurred among the black population (70.7%). Rates of treatment default were highest among blacks (10.5%) and lowest among the indigenous population (6.9%). However, the fatality rate was similar across race categories, varying between 2.8% and 3.8% for whites and the indigenous population, respectively. The lowest cure rates were observed when follow-up was inadequate (58.3%), and the highest was observed when the follow-up was classified as excellent (96.8%).ConclusionsThis study revealed that—apart from the heterogeneous distribution of TB among the Brazilian macro-regions—ethnic-racial inequalities exist in terms of clinical-epidemiological characteristics and incidence rates as well as follow-up for cases undergoing treatment. The highest rates of TB occurred among the indigenous people.

Operational lessons drawn from pilot implementation of Xpert MTB/Rif in Brazil.

The World Health Organization has endorsed the Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), an automated polymerase-chain-reaction-based assay, for the rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis. However, large-scale use of a new technology calls for preparation and adaptation. A pilot implementation study was conducted in two Brazilian cities to explore the replacement of sputum smear microscopy with Xpert. The laboratories included covered 70% of the tuberculosis cases diagnosed, had no overlap in population catchment areas, handled different workloads and were randomly shifted to Xpert. Sputum samples were collected through the same routine procedures. Before the study the medical information system was prepared for the recording of Xpert results. Laboratory technicians were trained to operate Xpert machines and health workers were taught how to interpret the results. The average annual tuberculosis incidence in Brazil is around 90 cases per 100,000 population. However, co-infection with the human immunodeficiency virus and multidrug resistance are relatively infrequent (10% and < 2%, respectively). Of the tested sputum samples, 7.3% were too scanty for Xpert and had to be examined microscopically. Ten per cent of Xpert equipment needed replacement, but spare parts were not readily available in the country. Absence of patient identification numbers led to the introduction of errors in the medical information system. For nationwide scale-up, a local service provider is needed to maintain the Xpert system. Ensuring cartridge availability is also essential. The capacity to perform smear microscopy should be retained. The medical information system needs updating to allow efficient use of Xpert.

Tuberculose de orelha, doença profissional?

Na literatura, a otite média tuberculosa está como uma causa rara de infecção crônica supurativa da orelha média e mastóide, e os fatores predisponentes foram pouco referidos. Em nosso país há um aumento da incidência de tuberculose, inclusive de formas raras como a otite média tuberculosa. Esses pacientes classicamente têm múltiplas perfurações da membrana timpânica e otorréia, associada à perda auditiva progressiva. O diagnóstico deve ser aventado nos pacientes com otite que não responde a terapia de rotina, seja por fungo da orelha externa ou bacteriana da orelha média. Os autores apresentam, em estudo retrospectivo, quatro pacientes com otite média tuberculosas, sendo duas médicas, uma engenheira química e um menor com casos de tuberculose ativa na família, sendo, portanto, fatores predisponentes o contato familiar com tuberculoso, contato profissional e exposição a agressores de vias aéreas.