Abstract
The Incidence of Tuberculosis in Brazil from 2001 to 2018: Use of Polynomial Regression Combined with a Stochastic Volatility Model
Highlights
Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis
This study considers TB count data in Brazil between the years 2001 and 2018 and some existing relationships given by other time series in the same period such as rates of AIDS patients among patients diagnosed with TB, rates of patients living in urban centers among patients diagnosed with TB, rates of male patients among patients diagnosed with TB, rates of patients in extreme poverty among patients diagnosed with TB among several other factors
For the TB count series considered on the logarithmic scale, there is great variability around the year 2007; from that year on, there is a decline in variability to be increased again especially at the end of the period 2001/2018
Summary
Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Tuberculosis usually progresses slowly from the latent phase (infection without active disease, LTBI-Latent Tuberculosis Infection) to active TB, except in HIV-infected patients where the progression can be rapid and fatal. The evolution of treatment and the discovery of a vaccine have contributed to the control of TB, it is still among the infectious diseases of high lethality in the world. TB counts in all countries and regions of the world were in great decline until the early 1980’s when the first cases of patients infected with the HIV virus leading to AIDS emerged and leading to a large increase in the incidence of TB in the World. Tuberculosis remains a poverty-related disease with a high burden of disease in low- and middle-income countries and in countries with a high incidence of HIV [2]
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