Respiratory Syncytial Virus Incidence Research Articles

Resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Children: An Out-of-Season Epidemic in Portugal.

An out-of-season increase in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence was observed in Portugal from June 2021 onwards, revealing a continuing surge in cases throughout 2021/2022 autumn/winter. We aimed to describe this out-of-season epidemic and define its epidemic period, by analysing RSV incidence from week 40 of 2020 (2020-W40) to week 18 of 2022 (2022-W18). Surveillance data on weekly RSV laboratory confirmed cases, in Portugal, was used to monitor RSV incidence using CUSUM test methodology for count data. In 2021-W23, the CUSUM score identified a significant increase in the risk of RSV. By that time, the percentage of RSV positive tests rose from 1% in 2021-W22 (3/265) to 6% in 2021-W23 (18/298). Despite a sharp decrease in RSV incidence on 2021-W33 and on 2022-W02, the CUSUM score stayed over the limit up to 2022-W07, indicating that the RSV activity remained at an epidemic level. Distinct peaks of RSV cases were observed between 2021-W30 and 2021-W32 (average of 77 RSV cases per week) and between 2021-W39 and 2021-W41 (average of 79 RSV cases per week) with positivity rates around 60%. An out-of-season RSV epidemic was identified, with a longer epidemic period compared with previous seasons. Possible reasons include relaxation of COVID-19 physical distancing measures and a greater proportion of population susceptible to disease. As several factors may change the pattern of RSV activity, countries should implement year-round surveillance RSV surveillance systems. These findings might have an impact on public health planning regarding future RSV surges, namely, on the palivizumab prophylaxis period for high-risk infants.

Low Levels of RSV Testing Among Adults Hospitalized for Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in the United States.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)-related hospitalizations in older adults. Without RSV-specific treatment for adults, testing is uncommon, leading to potential underestimation of RSV incidence in real-world data studies. This study aimed to quantify the frequency of RSV testing during LRTI-related hospitalizations of older adults to inform interpretation of incidence estimates. Administrative and billing data for hospitalizations of adults aged≥65years with a primary or secondary diagnosis of LRTI during the 2016-2019 RSV seasons (October-April) were extracted from the US all-payer Premier Healthcare Database (PHD). Billing codes identified RSV tests administered during eligible hospitalizations. The proportion of LRTI-related hospitalizations with a billed RSV test was calculated for each hospital in PHD, and summarized descriptively by hospital bed size, teaching status, and population served. Most of the 937 study hospitals performed RSV testing infrequently during LRTI hospitalization; median percentage of LRTI hospitalizations with RSV testing was 4.3%, and 78.4% of hospitals performed RSV testing in less than 25% of LRTI-related hospitalizations. RSV testing varied extensively by hospital type. Median percentage tested was significantly higher for hospitals with≥200 beds (9.1%) versus<200 beds (1.6%), for teaching (11.0%) versus non-teaching (2.5%) hospitals, and in urban (7.4%) versus rural (0.7%) settings. The median percentage of RSV testing increased over time, from 0.8% to 6.3% between the 2016/17 and 2018/19 seasons. A small proportion of older adults hospitalized with LRTI are tested for RSV in US hospitals. Large variability occurs across hospital types. Consequently, retrospective database analyses likely result in a substantial underestimation of the true RSV-related hospitalization incidence. RSV incidence studies using real-world data need to assess for RSV testing frequency and adjust their results for under ascertainment associated with limited testing.

Determining the Relationship of Meteorological Factors and Severe Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Central Peninsular Malaysia.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing viral respiratory tract infections among younger children worldwide. The influence of meteorological factors on RSV seasonal activity is well-established for temperate countries; however, in subtropical countries such as Malaysia, relatively stable temperate climates do not clearly support this trend, and the available data are contradictory. Better understanding of meteorological factors and seasonality of RSV will allow effective strategic health management relating to RSV infection, particularly immunoprophylaxis of high-risk infants with palivizumab. Retrospectively, from 2017 to 2021, we examined the association between various meteorological factors (rainfall, rainy days, temperature, and relative humidity) and the incidence of RSV in children aged less than 12 years in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. RSV activity peaked in two periods (July to August and October to December), which was significantly correlated with the lowest rainfall (p < 0.007) and number of rainy days (p < 0.005). RSV prevalence was also positively associated with temperature (p < 0.006) and inversely associated with relative humidity (p < 0.006). Based on our findings, we recommend that immunoprophylaxis with palivizumab be administered in children aged less than 2 years where transmission of RSV is postulated to be the highest after the end of two monsoon seasons.

Hospital admissions and need for mechanical ventilation in children with respiratory syncytial virus before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Danish nationwide cohort study

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) increased in several countries after the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. We aimed to investigate the age-related risk of RSV-associated hospital admissions and need for mechanical ventilation during the RSV resurgence in summer and autumn 2021 compared with the four RSV seasons preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. We also aimed to describe the clinical complications necessitating mechanical ventilation. This population-based cohort study included patients aged 0-17 years admitted to hospital with RSV in Denmark during the RSV resurgence in summer and autumn 2021, and the four pre-COVID-19 RSV seasons (2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20). We retrieved data on RSV-associated hospital admissions from the Danish National Patient Registry and demographic and clinical details of children who received mechanical ventilation through prospective real-time data collection in 2021-22 and retrospective data collection for the 2016-17 to 2019-20 RSV seasons from all eight paediatric and neonatal intensive care units in Denmark. Risk factors for severe RSV disease were as defined as age younger than 3 months or severe comorbidities. We calculated the risk of RSV-associated hospital admissions per 100 000 population in each RSV season from week 21 to week 20 of the following year. We also calculated the risk rate of receiving mechanical ventilation per 100 000 population and 1000 RSV-associated hospital admissions during each RSV season from week 21 to week 20 of the following year. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) for hospital admission and mechanical ventilation by dividing the risk rate of hospital admission and mechanical ventilation in 2021-22 by annual mean risk rates in the four pre-COVID-19 RSV epidemics (2016-17 to 2019-20). We compared RRs using Fisher's exact test. We compared complications leading to intubation between children with and without risk factors for severe RSV disease. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05186597. Among 310 423 Danish children aged younger than 5 years, the mean number of RSV-associated hospital admissions increased from 1477 (SD 226) in the 2016-17 to 2019-20 RSV seasons to 3000 in the 2021-22 RSV season (RR 2·0 [95% CI 1·9-2·1]). 54 children with RSV received mechanical ventilation in 2021-22 compared with 15-28 annually in the 2016-17 to 2019-20 RSV seasons (2·3 [1·6-3·3]). The highest increase in hospital admissions and need for mechanical ventilation occurred among children aged 24-59 months (4·1 [3·6-4·7] for hospital admission; 4·6 [1·7-12·6] for mechanical ventilation). Among children admitted to hospital, the risk of mechanical ventilation was similar in 2021-22 and the four pre-COVID-19 seasons (risk rate 14·3 per 1000 RSV-associated hospital admissions [95% CI 10·4-19·3] vs 12·9 [10·1-16·1]; RR 1·1 [95% CI 0·8-1·6]). Across all RSV seasons studied, among children younger than 3 months or those with severe comorbidities, respiratory failure due to bronchiolitis led to mechanical ventilation in 69 (79%) of 87 children. Of 46 children with no risk factors for severe RSV, 40 (87%) received mechanical ventilation due to additional complications, including neurological (n=16; 35%), cardiac (n=1; 2%), and pulmonary complications (n=23; 50%; eg, wheeze responsive to bronchodilator therapy, severe bacterial co-infections, and pneumothorax). In Denmark, RSV disease did not seem to be more severe for the individual child during the RSV resurgence in 2021 following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions. However, hospital admissions were higher among older children, possibly due to a postponed first RSV infection or no recent reinfection. Older children without risk factors for severe RSV disease had atypical complications that led to intubation. If new RSV-preventive interventions for healthy infants delay first RSV infection, a higher number of older children might be admitted to hospital due to atypical clinical phenotypes, rather than classical bronchiolitis. National Ministry of Higher Education and Science and the Innovation Fund Denmark.

Респираторно-синцитиальная инфекция – современное состояние проблемы

The review shows the main current data concerning the etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, features of the clinical picture, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). We studied the influence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on the severity of the disease depending on age, concomitant pathology, genetic factors. Over the past decades, manifest forms of infection have become more frequent in the elderly, especially with weakened immunity with the development of severe forms of the disease with damage to the lower respiratory tract. During the systematization, the importance of epidemiological surveillance for RSV was determined. Data on the incidence of RSV on the territory of the subjects of Russian Federation with a high degree of probability cannot reflect the true picture, due to the lack of alertness of primary care doctors and specialists providing medical care in the inpatient departments. This is accompanied by the complexity of diagnostics and laboratory differential diagnosis with other respiratory infections. The problem is aggravated due to the lack of effective etiotropic therapy, as well as the availability of only passive immunization for children under two years of age from the means of specific prevention. Thus, these aspects raise a number of important issues for epidemiological and medical-preventive services. Keywords: bronchiolitis, pneumonia, respiratory syncytial infection, respiratory syncytial virus

2208. Rates of Medically-Attended RSV among US Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract Background Adult respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines are in late stages of development. A comprehensive synthesis of adult RSV burden is needed to inform public health decision-making. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies describing the incidence of medically-attended RSV (MA-RSV) among US adults. We also identified studies reporting nasopharyngeal (NP) or nasal swab RT-PCR results with paired serology (four-fold-rise) or sputum (RT-PCR) to calculate RSV detection ratios quantifying improved diagnostic yield after adding a second specimen type (ie, serology or sputum). Results We identified 14 studies with 15 unique MA-RSV incidence estimates, all based on NP or nasal swab RT-PCR testing alone. Pooled annual RSV-associated incidence per 100,000 adults ≥65 years of age was 178 (95%CI: 152‒204; n=8 estimates) hospitalizations (4 prospective studies: 189; 4 model-based studies: 157), 133 (95%CI: 0‒319, n=2) emergency department (ED) admissions, and 1519 (95%CI: 1109‒1929, n=3) outpatient visits. Based on 6 studies, RSV detection was ∼1.5 times higher when adding paired serology or sputum. After adjustment for this increased yield, annual RSV-associated rates per 100,000 adults ≥65 years were 267 hospitalizations (UI: 228‒306) (prospective: 282; model-based: 236), 200 ED admissions (UI: 0‒478), and 2278 outpatient visits (UI: 1663‒2893). Persons &amp;lt; 65 years with chronic medical conditions were 1.2−28 times more likely to be hospitalized for RSV depending on risk condition. Conclusion The true burden of RSV has been underestimated and is significant among older adults and individuals with chronic medical conditions. A highly effective adult RSV vaccine would have substantial public-health impact. Disclosures John M. McLaughlin, PhD, Pfizer: Employee|Pfizer: Stocks/Bonds Farid L. Khan, MPH, Pfizer: Employee|Pfizer: Stocks/Bonds Elizabeth Begier, M.D., M.P.H., Pfizer: Employee|Pfizer: Stocks/Bonds David Swerdlow, MD, Pfizer: Advisor/Consultant|Pfizer: Stocks/Bonds Luis Jodar, PhD, Pfizer: Employee|Pfizer: Stocks/Bonds Ann R. Falsey, MD, BioFire Diagnostics: Grant/Research Support|Janssen: Grant/Research Support|Merck, Sharp and Dohme: Grant/Research Support|Novavax: Advisor/Consultant|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support.

The Changing Epidemiology of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract Introduction/Objective The epidemiology of a virus can be based on its evolving virulence, environmental and societal factors. Here we analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). Methods/Case Report A 5-year retrospective study performed at Truman Medical Center, Kansas City, Missouri, analyzed 390 RSV positive cases by Lab PCR (polymerase chain reaction) for adult and pediatric patients, between the months of July- December, 2017-2021. Cases were divided into two groups - pre-pandemic and pandemic. Data was collected for both groups and categorized by age, gender, admission rate, summer months (July-September), winter months (October-December) and COVID-vaccination-status. A chi-square analysis was used to compare the above categorized data between both groups. Results (if a Case Study enter NA) Out of 390 cases, the annual incidence of RSV, pre-pandemic averaged at 71. This number fell drastically to 9 cases in 2020 followed by an overwhelming 168 cases in 2021. The incidence of cases in 2021 was higher in the summer months compared to pre-pandemic days, p&amp;lt;.00001. Additionally, the incidence of cases in children &amp;lt;5 years was greater during 2021, p=0.0014. Of note, no individuals &amp;lt;20 years of age, reported positive in 2020. Of the population eligible for the COVID19 vaccine, 24% of those who tested positive had also been vaccinated. There was no significant difference reported with regards to other age groups, gender or admission rates. Conclusion Adequate social distancing and non-pharmaceutical interventions (masks, handwashing etc.) can explain the sharp decline in cases in 2020. RSV appears to have evolved to a more virulent strain ever since, resulting in more infections during the summer months, especially targeting children under the age of 5.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Incidence and Severity in a Community-Based Prospective Cohort of Children Aged 0–14 Years

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a substantial source of severe illnesses including acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) like pneumonia. However, its burden in older children remains less well understood. Using a community-based prospective cohort, we assessed the burden of symptomatic reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed RSV among Nicaraguan children aged 0-14 years from 2011 to 2016. ALRI was defined as physician diagnosis of pneumonia, bronchiolitis, bronchitis, or bronchial hyperreactivity. Between 2011 and 2016, 2575 children participated in the cohort. Of these, 630 (24.5%) had at least 1 episode of symptomatic RSV and 194 (7.5%) had multiple episodes. Subtype was identified in 571 (69.3%) episodes with 408 (71.5%) RSV-A, 157 (27.5%) RSV-B, and 6 (1%) positive for both. Children aged <2 years displayed the highest incidence of symptomatic RSV, with 269.3 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 242.1-299.5). Beyond 2 years, incidence (95% CI) of symptomatic RSV decreased rapidly: 145.6 (129.9-163.1), 37.9 (31.9-45.0), and 19.3 (14.9-25.0) cases per 1000 person-years among children aged 2-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, respectively. Incidence of RSV-associated ALRI was highest in children aged <2 years (85.95 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 71.30-103.61]): 2.1, 9.5, and 17.3 times that of participants aged 2-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, respectively. Children <2 years old were significantly more likely to have an RSV-associated hospitalization (P < .001). There is a substantial burden of symptomatic and severe RSV in children. While older children did present with RSV, the rates of symptomatic and severe RSV decreased by as much as 95% beyond age 5.

Temporal dynamics of RSV shedding and genetic diversity in adults during the COVID-19 pandemic in a French hospital, early 2021

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is responsible of lower respiratory tract infections which may be severe in infants, elderly and immunocompromised adults. Europe and North-American countries have observed a massive reduction of RSV incidence during the 2020–2021 winter season. Using a systematic RSV detection coupled to SARS-CoV-2 for all adult patients admitted at the Foch hospital (Suresnes, France) between January and March 2021 (n = 11,324), only eight RSV infections in patients with prolonged RNA shedding were diagnosed. RSV whole-genome sequencing revealed that six and two patients were infected by RSV groups A and B, respectively. RSV carriage lasted from 7 to at least 30 days disregarding of RSV lineage. The most prolonged RSV shedding was observed in an asymptomatic patient. We detected novel patient-specific non-synonymous mutations in the G glycoprotein gene, including a double identical mutation in the repeated region for one patient. No additional mutation occurred in the RSV genome over the course of infection in the four patients tested for. In conclusion, our results suggest that the temporal shift in the RSV epidemic is not likely to be explained by the emergence of a high frequency, unreported variant. Moreover, prolonged RSV carriages in asymptomatic patients could play a role in virus spread.

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus in children younger than 5 years in England during the COVID-19 pandemic, measured by laboratory, clinical, and syndromic surveillance: a retrospective observational study

Seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause a clinically significant burden of disease among young children. Non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted at SARS-CoV-2 have affected the activity of other respiratory pathogens. We describe changes in the epidemiology of RSV among children younger than 5 years in England since 2020. Surveillance data on RSV infections, comprising laboratory-confirmed cases, proportion of positive tests, hospital admissions for RSV-attributable illness, and syndromic indicators for RSV-associated disease (emergency department attendances for acute bronchitis or bronchiolitis, non-emergency health advice telephone service [NHS 111] calls for cough, general practitioner [GP] in-hours consultations for respiratory tract infections, and GP out-of-hours contacts for acute bronchitis or bronchiolitis) were analysed from Dec 29, 2014 to March 13, 2022, for children younger than 5 years. Data were extracted from national laboratory, clinical, and syndromic surveillance systems. Time-series analyses using generalised linear models were used to estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 on RSV indicators, with absolute and relative changes calculated by comparing observed and predicted values. RSV-associated activity was reduced for all RSV indicators during winter 2020-21 in England, with 10 280 (relative change -99·5% [95% prediction interval -100·0 to -99·1]) fewer laboratory-confirmed cases, 22·2 (-99·6%) percentage points lower test positivity, 92 530 (-80·8% [-80·9 to -80·8]) fewer hospital admissions, 96 672 (-73·7% [-73·7 to -73·7]) fewer NHS 111 calls, 2924 (-88·8% [-90·4 to -87·2]) fewer out-of-hours GP contacts, 91 304 (-89·9% [-90·0 to -89·9]) in-hours GP consultations, and 27 486 (-85·3% [-85·4 to -85·2]) fewer emergency department attendances for children younger than 5 years compared with predicted values based on winter seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic. An unprecedented summer surge of RSV activity occurred in 2021, including 11 255 (1258·3% [1178·3 to 1345·8]) extra laboratory-confirmed cases, 11·6 percentage points (527·3%) higher test positivity, 7604 (10·7% [10·7 to 10·8]) additional hospital admissions, 84 425 (124·8% [124·7 to 124·9]) more calls to NHS 111, 409 (39·0% [36·6 to 41·8]) more out-of-hours GP contacts, and 9789 (84·9% [84·5 to 85·4]) more emergency department attendances compared with the predicted values, although there were 21 805 (-34·1% [-34·1 to -34·0]) fewer in-hours GP consultations than expected. Most indicators were also lower than expected in winter 2021-22, although to a lesser extent than in winter 2020-21. The extraordinary absence of RSV during winter 2020-21 probably resulted in a cohort of young children without natural immunity to RSV, thereby raising the potential for increased RSV incidence, out-of-season activity, and health-service pressures when measures to restrict SARS-CoV-2 transmission were relaxed. None.

Impact of the updating of clinical guidelines for RSV bronchiolitis on the use of diagnostic testing and medications in tertiary hospitals in Colombia.

Introductionthe incidence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) infection and their variability in the clinical management, make this disease a candidate for monitoring adequate use of resources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of the updating of clinical guidelines for RSV bronchiolitis on the use of diagnostic testing and medications in tertiary hospitals in Colombia.Methodswe performed a cross-sectional study, evaluating the frequencies of drug prescription and medical tests, before (January-December 2016) and after (January to December 2019) of updating and dissemination of a new protocol for the treatment of RSV bronchiolitis in two tertiary hospitals in Colombia.Resultsa total of 108 patients with RSV bronchiolitis were included. The demographic characteristics and clinical manifestations were similar in both groups. The length of hospital stays was similar in both groups. We did not find statistically significant differences in the frequency of medical tests. There was a decrease in the use of salbutamol (67.3% pre-protocol vs 51.8% post-protocol; P < .01). There were also significant reductions in the use of nebulized hypertonic saline solution (91.6% vs 82.6% P = 0.004).Conclusionour results demonstrate that the updating of clinical guidelines for RSV bronchiolitis was effective, as it achieved decreases in the use of bronchodilators and nebulized hypertonic saline solution. It is necessary to continue developing new strategies targeted to increase adherence to guidelines and evaluate the impact on the use of resources.

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Children Aged

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen that causes acute respiratory tract infections in children. To understand the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV in children, we analyzed the RSV diagnostic testing results from the 2014–2018 surveillance of acute respiratory infections in China. Among children aged <5 years, RSV incidence during 2014–2018 was 17.3% (3449/19,898), and 89.1% of RSV-positive individuals were inpatients. Children aged < 6 months had a high proportion in RSV infected individual (n = 1234; 35.8%). The highest RSV detection rate was in winter, RSV-A and RSV-B co-circulated year-round and jointly prevailed in 2015–2016. Cough was the common symptom of RSV infection 93.2% (3216/3449). Compared with older children, those aged <6 months were more likely to show breathing difficulty or lung rale that further developed into bronchopneumonia (p < 0.001). The symptoms such as cough, running nose, and diarrhea had significant differences between the RSV-A and RSV-B groups. The rate of RSV co-detection with other viruses or bacteria was 35.4%. Those coinfected with other viruses had a significantly higher incidence of fever, whereas those coinfected with bacteria had higher incidences of breathing difficulty and severe pneumonia. Our findings highlight the need for accumulating epidemiological information for the prevention and control of RSV.

Incidence and economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus among adults in the United States: A retrospective analysis using 2 insurance claims databases.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common, contagious, and seasonal pathogen causing 64 million acute respiratory infections annually in adults and children worldwide. High-risk adults, including older adults and those with cardiopulmonary conditions or weakened immune systems, are more likely to be infected. However, limited information exists on RSV incidence and associated costs among adults, including high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the annual incidence of medically attended, International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded RSV among commercially insured adults and assess health care costs among adults with ICD-coded RSV in the United States. METHODS: Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database (January 01, 2007, to June 30, 2020) and IBM's MarketScan Databases (January 01, 2000, to July 31, 2020) were used. Medically attended, ICD-coded RSV incidence among adults was assessed from July 1 of a given year to June 30 of the next year and reported per 100,000 population. Trends in all-cause mean weekly costs pre-RSV and post-RSV diagnosis were reported. Results were reported overall and among patients aged 60-64 years, 65 years or older, 85 years or older, and 18-59 years at high risk of severe RSV (defined as having cardiopulmonary conditions or a weakened immune system). RESULTS: Annual incidence of medically attended, ICD-coded RSV in adults overall was 22.0-52.9 in Optum and 23.4-63.6 in MarketScan. Incidence rates were higher among patients aged 60-64 years (Optum: 25.2-66.1; MarketScan: 31.9-82.1), 65 years or older (Optum: 37.3-75.5; MarketScan: 54.1-97.3), 85 years or older (Optum: 92.4-140.6; MarketScan: 79.4-234.7), and 18-59 years at high risk of severe RSV (Optum: 41.3-135.9; MarketScan: 46.3-112.4). Mean weekly costs increased during the week before (Optum: $2,325; MarketScan: $2,080) and post-RSV diagnosis (Optum: $9,523; MarketScan: $3,551), compared with those in weeks 2-8 pre-RSV diagnosis (Optum: $1,350; MarketScan: $872). The increases in mean weekly costs during the week before and the week following RSV diagnosis were higher among patients aged 60-64 years (mean weekly costs in weeks 2-8 pre-RSV, week 1 pre-RSV, week 1 post-RSV; Optum: $1,623, $2,690, $10,823; MarketScan: $1,259, $2,992, $5,069), 65 years or older (Optum: $1,731, $3,067, $12,866; MarketScan: $1,517, $3,571, $5,268), 85 years or older (Optum: $1,563, $2,430, $18,134; MarketScan: $1,613, $4,113, $6,231), and 18-59 years at high risk of severe RSV (only for MarketScan: $1,237, $3,294, $5,531; costs were similar for Optum). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of medically attended, ICD-coded RSV in adults was 22.0-63.6 per 100,000 population, a likely underestimation since RSV was not systematically tested and only RSV-coded cases were observed. Incremental costs associated with RSV were substantial. Incidence rates and costs were higher among patients aged 60 years or older and patients at high risk of severe RSV. DISCLOSURES: This study was sponsored by Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC. The sponsor was involved in the study design, interpretation of results, manuscript preparation, and publication decisions. B. Brookhart and D. Anderson are employees of Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC, and are stockholders of Johnson & Johnson. C. Rossi, B. Emond, J. Wang, P. Lefebvre, and M.-H. Lafeuille are employees of Analysis Group, Inc., a consulting company that has provided paid consulting services to Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC, which funded the development and conduct of this study and manuscript. M. Mesa-Frias. and S. Drummond are former employees of Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC. L. Lamerato is an employee of Henry Ford Health System and received research funding from Janssen Scientific Affairs, LLC.

Respiratory syncytial virus-associated hospitalisation in children aged ≤5 years: a scoping review of literature from 2009 to 2021.

IntroductionFollowing the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in many countries, a surge in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalisations was reported, surpassing yearly trends pre-pandemic. The changes to RSV epidemiology may have unforeseen effects on healthcare systems and populations globally, adding to the burden generated during the pandemic and placing increased demand on resources. Here we aim to identify recent global trends of RSV hospitalisation amongst children aged ≤5 years, to help inform policy makers in the planning of preventative interventions.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review of published literature between January 2009 and May 2021. Using keywords “Hospital admissions, Respiratory syncytial virus, RSV, Bronchiolitis, Children” we located studies using Medline, EMCARE, CINAHL and HMIC. Studies were eligible if they reported on trends/data for RSV hospitalisation amongst children aged ≤5 years. The articles were reviewed by two independent reviewers.FindingsWe assessed 3310 abstracts, reviewed 70 studies and included 56 studies in the final review. Findings were categorised into themes. The review highlighted that, although RSV incidence has been steadily increasing since 2009, the number of reported RSV hospitalisations decreased during lockdown. The highest numbers of hospitalisations were reported in children <1 year of age, particularly 0–2-month-old infants. Globally, RSV hospitalisations tend to peak in the winter months; however, since COVID-19 restrictions have eased, countries are reporting incidence peaks at different times, in contrast to the trends of previous years.ConclusionWith greater physical interactions due to the relaxation of COVID-19 restriction measures, RSV-related hospitalisations can be seen to increase amongst children aged ≤5 years, possibly surpassing the numbers reported in previous RSV seasons.

Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity, however there is no systematic testing in children hospitalised with respiratory symptoms. Therefore, current RSV incidence likely underestimates the true burden. We used probabilistically linked perinatal, hospital, and laboratory records of 321,825 children born in Western Australia (WA), 2000–2012. We generated a predictive model for RSV positivity in hospitalised children aged < 5 years. We applied the model to all hospitalisations in our population-based cohort to determine the true RSV incidence, and under-ascertainment fraction. The model’s predictive performance was determined using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. From 321,825 hospitalisations, 37,784 were tested for RSV (22.8% positive). Predictors of RSV positivity included younger admission age, male sex, non-Aboriginal ethnicity, a diagnosis of bronchiolitis and longer hospital stay. Our model showed good predictive accuracy (AUROC: 0.87). The respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 58.4%, 92.2%, 68.6% and 88.3%. The predicted incidence rates of hospitalised RSV for children aged < 3 months was 43.7/1000 child-years (95% CI 42.1–45.4) compared with 31.7/1000 child-years (95% CI 30.3–33.1) from laboratory-confirmed RSV admissions. Findings from our study suggest that the true burden of RSV may be 30–57% higher than current estimates.

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus in Japan: A nationwide claims database analysis.

BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of hospitalization for bronchiolitis and pneumonia in infancy. In Japan, limited data are publicly available on RSV epidemiology and clinical characteristics among infants.MethodsThis retrospective study described RSV incidence, seasonality, patient characteristics, resource use, and clinical outcomes among Japanese children <2 years from January 2017 through December 2018. The RSV cases were identified using the Japanese Medical Data Center database.ResultsIn the database, 9,711 and 8,509 RSV patients <2 years were identified in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Of these, 25% required hospitalization. Ninety percent of hospitalized patients did not have a known RSV risk factor. Nineteen percent of hospitalized patients experienced dehydration, and 12% had acute respiratory failure. Hospitalization lasted 1 week on average and 7% required some type of mechanical ventilation. The peak of hospitalizations occurred at 2 months. The incidence of RSV hospitalization in children <2 years was 23.2 per 1,000 person‐years, which increased to 35.4 per 1,000 for infants <6 months. This age group accounted for 40% of all RSV‐associated hospitalizations among children <2 years.ConclusionsRoughly one‐fourth of all RSV patients <2 years were hospitalized. Ninety percent of these did not have an underlying risk condition. This underscores that RSV can cause serious disease among all young children. Three to four out of every 100 Japanese children <6 months were hospitalized for RSV, and this age group accounted for ~40% of all RSV‐associated hospitalizations. Novel and broad‐based RSV prevention strategies, especially those targeting young infants, are needed.

998. Forward and Reverse Translational Approaches to Predict Efficacy of the Neutralizing Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Antibody MK-1654

BackgroundMK-1654 is a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) F glycoprotein neutralizing monoclonal antibody (mAb) with an extended half-life in late development to prevent RSV infection in infants. Neutralizing mAbs, like MK-1654, have great potential for prophylaxis against viral infection. However, well-validated approaches for clinical dose and efficacy predictions are lacking.MethodsSummary-level literature data from RSV prevention studies were used in a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) to describe the relationship between RSV incidence rates and serum neutralizing antibody (SNA) titer. The model was validated using viral challenge experiments in cotton rats and phase 3 RSV-A efficacy results in infants for an anti-RSV F mAb, REGN-2222. A phase 2b human RSV challenge study (HCS) in adults was also conducted with MK-1654. Participants (N=70) received 100, 200, 300, or 900 mg of MK-1564 or placebo and were challenged intranasally with RSV 29 days later. RSV viral load and symptomatic infection were monitored. Data from the HCS were compared to model predictions. The MBMA was used to predict efficacy of MK-1654 in a virtual population of pre- and full- term infants.ResultsThe relationship between SNA titer and RSV incidence rate defined using the viral load data from the cotton rat approximated the relationship identified for infants from the clinical MBMA. The MBMA was quantitatively consistent with the phase 3 efficacy results against RSV A for REGN-2222. In the HCS, RSV nasal viral load measured by RT-qPCR and quantitative culture as well as symptomatic infections were decreased in MK-1654 recipients compared to placebo. Incidence rates of RSV infection in the HCS were also consistent with MBMA predictions. The model-based clinical trial simulations for MK-1654 indicated a high probability of substantial efficacy against RSV-associated medically attended lower respiratory tract infection ( >75% for 5 months) for doses ≥75 mg.ConclusionOur MBMA successfully quantified the relationship between RSV SNA and clinically relevant endpoints, including lower respiratory tract infection in infants. MBMA-based efficacy predictions support continued development of the MK-1654 antibody for the prevention of RSV in infants.DisclosuresBrian M. Maas, PharmD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Jos Lommerse, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Nele Plock, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Radha Railkar, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) S. Y. Amy Cheung, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder) Luzelena Caro, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Jingxian Chen, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Wen Liu, MPH, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Ying Zhang, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Qinlei Huang, MS, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Wei Gao, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Li Qin, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Jie Meng, MSc, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Han Witjes, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Emilie Schindler, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Benjamin Guiastrennec, PharmD, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Francesco Bellanti, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck & Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Daniel Spellman, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Brad Roadcap, MS, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Amy Espeseth, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) S. Aubrey Stoch, MD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Eseng Lai, MD, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Kalpit A. Vora, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Antonios O. Aliprantis, MD, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Jeffrey R. Sachs, PhD, Merck & Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder)

1013. Predicting RSV Efficacy for MK-1654 in Temperate and Tropical Climates using MBMA and Clinical Trial Simulation to Account for Seasonal Differences in RSV Force-of-Infection

Abstract Background MK-1654 is a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) F glycoprotein neutralizing monoclonal antibody under development to prevent RSV infection in infants. A model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) describing the relationship between RSV serum neutralizing activity (SNA) and clinically relevant endpoints (e.g. incidence rates) in humans, including lower respiratory tract infection (LRI) in infants, was presented previously. This model accounted for variable exposure to RSV over the course of the season through a force-of-infection (FOI) function modulating the overall risk of RSV infection over time. The objective of the current work was to determine whether variations in regional seasonality would impact the efficacy of a clinical trial evaluating MK-1654. Methods A FOI function to describe the degree of RSV exposure as a function of time was created by fitting epidemiological data to a Gaussian function added to a constant baseline value. Clinical trial simulations were conducted using the MBMA to predict seasonal incidence rates (IR) of RSV medically attended lower-respiratory tract infection (MALRI) and efficacies for a range of MK-1654 doses in both temperate and tropical regions. Results Epidemiological data was well captured by the FOI function. Clinical trial simulations indicated that seasonal IRs of RSV were sensitive to differences in the FOI represented by temperate and tropical regions; however, there was no substantial impact on efficacies across MK-1654 dose levels. Consistent with predictions for a temperate climate, MK-1654, when administered at the start of the RSV season in a region with a tropical climate, was also predicted to maintain high efficacy ( &amp;gt; 75%) for the prevention of RSV MALRI for 150 days. Conclusion Simulations indicated that while FOI is a substantial driver of overall RSV incidence rates, MK-1654 efficacy in a late-stage clinical trial is likely to be high, regardless of regional variations in RSV. Disclosures Nele Plock, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Jos Lommerse, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Brian M. Maas, PharmD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Jingxian Chen, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Francesco Bellanti, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Li Qin, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Han Witjes, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Philippe Pierrillas, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder)Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Independent Contractor) Radha Railkar, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Antonios O. Aliprantis, MD, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Kalpit A. Vora, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Wei Gao, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) Luzelena Caro, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder) S. Y. Amy Cheung, PhD, Certara (Employee, Shareholder) Jeffrey R. Sachs, PhD, Merck &amp; Co., Inc. (Employee, Shareholder)

Influenza and RSV incidence during COVID-19 pandemic\u2014an observational study from in-hospital point-of-care testing

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has forced the implementation of unprecedented public health measures strategies which might also have a significant impact on the spreading of other viral pathogens such as influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) . The present study compares the incidences of the most relevant respiratory viruses before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in emergency room patients. We analyzed the results of in total 14,946 polymerase chain reaction point-of-care tests (POCT-PCR) for Influenza A, Influenza B, RSV and SARS-CoV-2 in an adult and a pediatric emergency room between December 1, 2018 and March 31, 2021. Despite a fivefold increase in the number of tests performed, the positivity rate for Influenza A dropped from 19.32% (165 positives of 854 tests in 2018/19), 14.57% (149 positives of 1023 in 2019–20) to 0% (0 positives of 4915 tests) in 2020/21. In analogy, the positivity rate for Influenza B and RSV dropped from 0.35 to 1.47%, respectively, 10.65–21.08% to 0% for both in 2020/21. The positivity rate for SARS-CoV2 reached 9.74% (110 of 1129 tests performed) during the so-called second wave in December 2020. Compared to the two previous years, seasonal influenza and RSV incidence was eliminated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Corona-related measures and human behavior patterns could lead to a significant decline or even complete suppression of other respiratory viruses such as influenza and RSV.

Exploratory Analysis of the Economically Justifiable Price of a Hypothetical RSV Vaccine for Older Adults in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

BackgroundIn older adults, the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) resembles that of influenza and may even be considered worse due to the lack of preventive interventions. This study was performed to identify the available literature on RSV infection in older adults, and to provide updated exploratory results of the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical RSV vaccine in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.MethodsA literature search was performed in Medline and EMBASE on 11 November 2019, which served as input for a static decision-tree model that was used to estimate the EJP, for an RSV vaccine applying different willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. WTP thresholds applied were €20 000 and €50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the Netherlands, and £20 000 and £30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year for the United Kingdom. Analyses were—in line with country-specific guidelines—conducted from a societal perspective for the Netherlands and a third-party payer perspective for the United Kingdom. The robustness of the cost-effectiveness results was tested in sensitivity analysis.ResultsAfter screening the literature, 3 studies for the Netherlands and 6 for the United Kingdom remained to populate the country-specific models. In the base case analysis for the Netherlands (mean RSV incidence, 3.32%), justifiable vaccine prices of €16.38 and €50.03 were found, based on applying the lower and higher WTP thresholds, respectively. Similarly, for the United Kingdom (mean incidence, 7.13%), vaccine prices of £72.29 and £109.74 were found, respectively.ConclusionRSV vaccination may well be cost-effective in both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, depending on the exact RSV incidence, vaccine effectiveness and price. However, sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust based on varying the different parameter estimates and assumptions. With RSV vaccines reaching the final stages of development, a strong need exists for cost-effectiveness studies to understand economically justifiable pricing of the vaccine.