Incidence Of Brucellosis Research Articles

Screening of sheep for brucellosis by indirect ELISA

To know the incidence of brucellosis in sheep of by Indirect ELISA. A total of 180 bloodsamples collected from apparently healthy sheep of Visakhapatnam District, Andhra Pradesh. Antibodies against Brucella were found by Indirect ELISA in 9 sera samples (5%) out of 180 sera samples tested. The results indicate that the incidence of brucellosis is lowsheep and the disease is more in ewes when compared with sheep, but regular screening should be done to minimize economic loss to the farmers and to avoid spread of disease to humans as it is a Zoonotic in nature.

Analysis of the Epidemiological, Clinical Characteristics, Treatment and Prognosis of Human Brucellosis During 2014-2018 in Huludao, China.

PurposeTo describe the incidence trend, demographic and clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis, epidemiological history and risk factors of human brucellosis in Huludao, China.Patients and MethodsA total of 1887 brucellosis patients were reported in Huludao, China from January, 2014 to December, 2018 and the case questionnaires from 1149 patients were collected from Huludao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Demographic characteristics of the patients and the information relating to the patients’ clinical manifestations, diagnosis, treatment and prognosis were collected and analyzed.ResultsThe number of annually reported brucellosis patients has dropped from 711 to 187 during the study period, with the incidence decreased from 27.31/100,000 in 2014 to 7.15/100,000 in 2018. A total of 1149 individual data were collected, with a mean age of 49.59±13.14 years and 75.7% were male. Patients aged more than 60 years were more likely to have arthralgia/myalgia than the other age groups, and patients who had an enlarged spleen in male were more than female (P<0.05). There were more acute brucellosis cases, less sub-acute and chronic brucellosis cases in the ethnic minority (83.6%, 5.5% and 11.0%, respectively) than that in the Han nationality (64.7%, 22.2% and 13.0%, respectively, P<0.05). For antibiotic therapy, “Doxycycline plus rifampicin or streptomycin” was the most commonly used drug combination. Sheep/goat was the main contacted animal and feeding/grazing was the most frequent transmission route; no personal protective measures were the major risk factor.ConclusionThe incidence of human brucellosis is still high in Huludao, China, and this is mostly associated with contacting with domestic animals and barely taking protective measures. The most common clinical manifestations of brucellosis patients in Huludao were fatigue, hyperhidrosis, fever, and arthralgia/myalgia, the most common route of exposure was feeding and grazing, and the major species of livestock was sheep/goat. The most commonly adopted treatment option was antibiotic therapy, and most patients responded well to treatment. The integrality and accuracy of the notifiable epidemiological case questionnaire needs to be improved in order to provide more factual and objective information for both the physicians and policy-makers.

Spatial-temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 and an analysis of social and environmental factors

BackgroundThis study aimed to describe the changing distribution of human brucellosis between 2004 and 2017 in mainland China and seek scientific evidence of the relationship between socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors and human brucellosis incidence.MethodsThe annual numbers of brucellosis cases and incidence rates from 31 provinces in mainland China between 2004 and 2017 were obtained from the Data-Center for China Public Health Science. The number of monthly brucellosis cases in 2018 was obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The electronic map of the People’s Republic of China was downloaded from the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Platform. Human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and an inventory of cattle and sheep at the end of each year from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual rainfall data from 31 provinces in the People’s Republic of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. The risk distribution and changing trends of human brucellosis were mapped with ArcGIS. A cluster analysis was employed to identify geographical areas and periods with statistically significant incidence rates. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine possible factors that were significantly correlated with the presence of human brucellosis cases.ResultsHuman brucellosis cases have spread throughout the whole country. Human brucellosis cases occurred mostly from March to August and were concentrated from April to July. The inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly correlated with the presence of brucellosis cases in mainland China.ConclusionsThe geographical expansion of human brucellosis in mainland China was observed, so did the high-incidence clusters between 2004 and 2017. Most of the cases were reported during the early spring to early summer (February–August). Results from the multivariate linear regression suggested that the inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly associated with the incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China.

Analysis of temporal trends of human brucellosis between 2013 and 2018 in Yazd Province, Iran to predict future trends in incidence: A time-series study using ARIMA model

Objective: To determine the temporal patterns of cumulative incidence of brucellosis using autoregressive integrated moving average models. Methods: This cross-sectional study employed yearly and monthly data of 1 117 laboratory-confirmed human brucellosis cases from January 2013 to December 2018 using the Yazd brucellosis national surveillance system. The monthly incidences constructed a timeseries model. The trend of cumulative incidence was perceived by tracing a line plot, which displayed a seasonal trend with periodicity. Thus, the ARIMA models were selected. Thereafter, Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values among different models indicated a preferable model from models which were expanded by diverse lags [(3, 0, 3), (2, 0, 3), (3, 0, 2), (4, 0, 3) and (3, 0, 4)]. Then, the achieved ARIMA model was applied to the forecasting cumulative incidence of monthly brucellosis incidences. All analyses were performed using Stata, version 11.2. Results: For the ARIMA (3, 0, 4) model, MAPE value was 56.20% with standard error 0.009-0.016, and white noise diagnostic check (Q=19.79, P=0.975) for the residuals of the selected model showed that the data were completely modelled. The monthly incidences that were fitted by the ARIMA (3, 0, 4) model, with AIC (25.7) and BIC (43.35) with a similar pattern of actual cases from 2013 to 2018 and forecasting incidences from January 2019 to December 2019 were, respectively, 0.50, 0.44, 0.45, 0.49, 0.55, 0.58, 0.56, 0.51, 0.46, 0.44, 0.45 and 0.49 per 100 000 people. Conclusions: In summary, the study showed that the ARIMA (3, 0, 4) model can be applied to forecast human brucellosis patterns in Yazd province, supplementing present surveillance systems, and may be better for health policy-makers and planners.

Talpa (poll evil): Description of a case

Talpa (poll evil) is a traditional term for an inflammatory illness of horses that manifests itself in a characteristic swelling on the top of the neck and the back of the horse’s head between the ears, which is caused by infection of the bursa (bursitis) in the neck and progresses to a large abscess at the poll. It starts as an inflamed bursa at the anterior end of the neck between vertebrae and the nuchal ligament, and swells until it presents as a characteristic swelling at the poll. The swelling can increase until it ruptures and drains. There are several causes of talpa, such as injury, irritation of the skin, or a puncture wound, but the most common cause is infection by various bacteria, including but not limited to Brucella abortus accompanied with Actinomyces bovis, as well as Bacteroides fragilis, Corynebacterium spp., Escherichia coli, Pasteurella spp., Proteus mirabilis, Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermidis, Streptococcus equi, Streptococcus zooepidemicus and even some parasites, such as Onchocerca cervicalis or O. reticulata. Because of the modern efforts to reduce the incidence of brucellosis in livestock, horses are less exposed to Brucella abortus, and hence modern cases of poll evil usually arise from skin trauma due to the horse striking its head against poorly designed or lowclearance structures, or to improper use of equipment, particularly leaving a badly-chosen halter on the horse around the clock. Poll evil is difficult to treat because of the deep-seated nature of the infection. If the bacterial infection of the bursa and nuchal ligament has spread, and purulent discharge is present, antibiotic therapy will be necessary along with hot packs and, possibly, surgery to remove infected and devitalized tissue. The paper presents the aetiopathogenetic background of poll evil and then describes in detail a field case reported in veterinary practice.

Behavioral determinants of brucellosis incidence among stockbreeders and their family members in rural area based on PRECEDE model

INTRODUCTION:Brucellosis is one of the common diseases between humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to investigate behavioral determinants of brucellosis incidence among stockbreeders and their family members in a rural area based on the PRECEDE model.MATERIALS AND METHODS:This cross-sectional study was carried out among 540 stockbreeders and their family members in Northeastern Iran in 2019. Sampling was done in two stages including stratified sampling and random sampling method. Data collection was conducted by a valid and reliable questionnaire developed based on the PRECEDE model. Data were analyzed using SPSS16 through Pearson correlation coefficient, independent t-test, and ANOVA. Furthermore IBM SPSS AMOS version 20 was used for the path analysis.RESULTS:The mean age of the participants was 39.02 ± 16.41 years, of whom 53.1% and 46.9% were men and women, respectively. About 23.9% of the participants had a history of brucellosis in their families. Enabling factors were the most important determinant of self-efficacy and self-efficacy was the most important determinants of behavior. Evaluation of the chi-square indicators, chi-square ratio to degree of freedom, root mean square error of approximation, adjusted goodness of fit index, parsimony comparative fit index, comparative fit index, incremental fit index, and parsimonious normed fit index indices indicated that the model was well fitted and there was a positive and significant relationship between the predisposing, enabling, and reinforcing factors on the one hand and behavior on the other. chi-square indicators, chi-square ratio to degree of freedom, root mean square error of approximation, adjusted goodness of fit index, parsimony comparative fit index, comparative fit index, incremental fit index, and parsimonious normed fit indexCONCLUSION:Designing and implementing health plans based on the PRECEDE model with more emphasis on self-efficacy as the most important behavioral determinants can bring about a positive effect on enhancing the brucellosis preventing behaviors.

Epidemiological Features of Human Brucellosis in Iran (2011-2018) and Prediction of Brucellosis with Data-Mining Models.

Brucellosis is known as the major zoonotic disease. We aimed to compare the performance of some data-mining models in predicting the monthly brucellosis cases in Iran. Population-based cohort study. Three data mining techniques including the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Random Forest (RF) besides to one classic model including Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Iran during 2011-2018. We used several criteria (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2) and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for appraising the accuracy of prediction and performance of our models. All analysis was done using free statistical software of R3.4.0 RESULTS: Overall 118867 cases (with a mean age of 34.01±1.65 yr) of brucellosis were observed and seven-year incidence rate of brucellosis in Iran was 21.78 (95% CI: 21.66, 21.91). The majority of patients (58.84%) were male and 25-29 yr old. The first three provinces with the highest incidence rate of brucellosis included the following; Kurdistan (71.39 per 100000), Lorestan (68.09 per 100000) and Hamadan (56.24 per 100000). Brucellosis was more common in males, 25-29 aged yr, western provinces and spring months. The disease had a decreasing trend in the last years. MARS model was more appropriate rather than data mining models for prediction of monthly incidence rate of brucellosis.

Relationship of meteorological factors and human brucellosis in Hebei province, China

BackgroundBrucellosis has always been one of the major public health problems in China. Investigating the influencing factors of brucellosis is conducive to its prevention and control. The incidence trend of brucellosis shows an obvious seasonality, suggesting that there may be a correlation between brucellosis and meteorological factors, but related studies were few. We aimed to use the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and brucellosis. MethodsThe data of monthly incidence of brucellosis and meteorological factors in Hebei province from January 2004 to December 2015 were collected from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center and Chinese meteorological data website. An ARIMA model incorporated with covariables was conducted to estimate the effects of meteorological variables on brucellosis. ResultsThere was a highest peak from May to July every year and an upward trend during the study period. Atmospheric pressure, wind speed, mean temperature, and relative humidity had significant effects on brucellosis. The ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 model with the covariates of atmospheric pressure, wind speed and mean temperature was the optimal model. The results showed that the atmospheric pressure with a 2-month lag (β = −0.004, p = 0.037), the wind speed with a 1-month lag (β = 0.030, p = 0.035), and the mean temperature with a 2-month lag (β = −0.003, p = 0.034) were significant predictors. ConclusionOur study suggests that atmospheric pressure, wind speed, mean temperature, and relative humidity have a significant impact on brucellosis. Further understanding of its mechanism would help facilitate the monitoring and early warning of brucellosis.

A primary investigation of the relation between the incidence of brucellosis and climatic factors in Iran

Brucella spp. are Gram-negative coccobacilli that may grow in different media and environmental conditions for extended periods of time. The survivals of these bacteria in the environment have an important impact on the epidemiology of brucellosis worldwide. The effect of climate on the incidence of certain zoonotic infectious diseases, (recently referred to as climate-sensitive zoonosis) is now well established. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation between the incidence of brucellosis and climatic parameters in Iran, an important endemic region for brucellosis with diverse climate. The information on the incidence of human brucellosis in different Iranian provinces for 2016 has been provided by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Iran. Annual meteorological data collected between 2015 and 2016 were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological organization (IMO). A regression analysis of the incidence of brucellosis was performed via STATA 14.0 and the heterogeneity among observations was determined via Cochrane's Q-test and I2 statistic. If I2 index was higher than 50%, heterogeneity was considered as considerable. The results of regression analyses revealed a negative significant association between mean ambient air temperature and brucellosis incidence (C = - 0.022, P value = 0.004). Likewise, a positive significant association was found between number of frosty days and brucellosis incidence (C = 0.002, p value = 0.003). Other metrological parameters showed no significant effect on the human brucellosis incidence. Although our results suggest a high degree of temperature sensitivity in regards to the brucellosis incidence in Iran, this study opens up prospects for further investigations regarding environmental conditions and climatic changes influencing the spatial distributions and seasonal/annual cycle of this zoonotic pathogen worldwide.

Contamination of milk and dairy products by Brucella species: A global systematic review and meta-analysis.

Brucellosis is known as an influential zoonosis in different regions worldwide, with significant effects on the reproductive performance of livestock. Considering the high incidence of brucellosis in dairy products and further negative impacts on food safety, the present study was aimed to systematically investigate prevalence worldwide among published data regarding the identification of Brucella spp. in dairy products. In this regard, some databases, i.e., Scopus, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science have been searched to retrieve all related articles regarding the incidence of Brucella contaminations in dairy products from 1 January 1983 to 1 April 2019. The prevalence of Brucella spp. in unpasteurized dairy products based on countries, WHO regions, and dairy product subgroups were evaluated and statistically compared. Based on the findings, the prevalence of Brucella spp. in dairy products increased while the GDP (C = 0.17, P-value < 0.001) and HDI (C = 0.19, P-value < 0.001) ranking decreased. Also, the highest prevalence of Brucella contamination in dairy products was noted in buffalo (25.91%) and goat (17.90%), respectively. The lowest and highest prevalence of Brucella spp. were observed in the Western Pacific (15.32%) and the Southeast Asia region (25.55%), respectively. Also, the rank order of WHO regions based on odds ratio (OR) was Southeast Asia region (2.84) > Eastern Mediterranean (2.41) > Region of America (1.65) > European Region (1.54) > Africa region (1.46) > Western Pacific (reference). The results of this study showed that decreasing poverty and an increase in the level of education in societies could reduce the prevalence of Brucella spp. in dairy products. The outcome of the current investigation can be used for the implementation of sustainable intervention and prevention strategies in affected regions.

Potential Effects of Climatic Parameters on Human Brucellosis in Fars Province, Iran, during 2009-2015.

Background:Human brucellosis is widespread in Fars province. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of climate on its incidence and determine the areas prone to the infection. Methods:Monthly meteorological data and the incidence rate of human brucellosis during 2009-2015 were collected and their correlation was studied using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Additionally, the multiple regression method and multi-layer perceptron neural network model were used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis. In order to analyze the data SPSS software (version 16.0), MATLAB software (version 8.1), and GIS software (version 10.4) were used. Results: Pearson’s regression analysis, on a monthly basis, showed a significant indirect correlation between the incidence of human brucellosis (with a time lag of up to 5 months) and climatic parameters (minimum temperature: -0.72 and evaporation: -0.73) in Abadeh (Fars, Iran). Moreover, there was a significant direct correlation (P<0.001) between the incidence of human brucellosis and the maximum relative humidity (+0.67) and rainfall (+0.48). The incidence of human brucellosis in Abadeh was predicted by using artificial neural network models (4 layers, 4 neurons in each layer), the Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm, and Sigmoid transfer function. It was determined that a correlation rate of 0.89 in the training level and 0.8 in the test level (with the lowest error rate) were the best values in multi-layer perceptron modeling. Conclusion: Climatic parameters are important factors in determining the incidence rate of human brucellosis in Fars province. Climate conditions provide a favorable environment for the spread of human brucellosis in this area.

A Systematic Detection for Brucellosis at Chronic Stage of Infection in Semen of Sheep and Saanen Goats

The study was conducted in a herd (n: 244) in which goats (n: 206) and sheep (n:38) had a history of brucellosis in Bursa which is located in Northwestern of Turkey between the years 2012-2014. For the detection of Brucella spp. and the other zoonotic bacterial agents, semen samples were taken from Saanen goats (n: 35) and rams (n: 8). Samples were tested by routine diagnostic procedures and PCR. The serum samples of male animals were also tested for Brucellosis by C-ELISA and I-ELISA. The culture results represented Trueperella pyogenes (n:2), Pasteurella pneumotopica (n: 5), Esherichia coli (n: 3), Aeromonas salmonicida subs. Salmonicida (1), Brevundimonas vesicularis (n: 2) and Mycoplasma bovigenitalium (n: 1) and Mycoplasma arginini (n: 1) from semen samples. Rams had no symptoms due to epididymitis or epididymoorchitis in clinical examination, but two bucks showed orchitis and they were serologically positive for brucellosis. Also, one seronegative buck showed epididymitis in a flock. There were no statistically significant differences between the serologically positive and negative animals in an examination of semen samples in terms of their volume, concentration, mass activity, motility and defectivity rate for acrosome. Although 20 of the serum samples were negative for anti-Brucella antibody, 23 of them were serologically positive for brucellosis. As a result of this study, Brucellae were not detected by bacteriologically and molecularly while there were some positive serum samples for brucellosis. This could be attributed that these samples might have been collected from chronically infected animals in which animals generally do not shed the organisms. Therefore, it was thought that sampling with regular intervals might help for the definitive incidence of brucellosis.

Epidemiology of Brucellosis in Saudi Arabia.

Objectives:To provide a comprehensive summary of brucellosis incidence, prevalence, risk associated factors, and impact on the Saudi population.Methods:A systematic review was conducted using the PubMed database. The articles included in the review were written in English and investigated the epidemiology, etiology, distribution, impact, or burden of brucellosis in the Saudi population. Articles to be included were finalized after a mutual consensus of 2 researchers.Results:Seventeen (n=17) studies were included which were conducted in diverse geographical areas of Saudi Arabia. Of them, 3 studies reported the prevalence of brucellosis among pregnant women and pregnancy outcomes; 3 studies focused on risk associated factors and symptoms and signs of brucellosis among children; 2 studies highlighted the prevalence of brucellosis among workers; 9 studies reported the prevalence/incidence and risk associated factors of brucellosis. Brucellosis incidence and prevalence vary widely among regions. Contact with infected animals and consumption of raw milk and milk products were identified as the main risk associated factors of brucellosis. Abortion and intrauterine fetal deaths rates were significantly higher among pregnant women with brucellosis compared with pregnant women without brucellosis.Conclusion:Brucellosis poses a considerable impact on human and has a higher prevalence in developing countries as compared to developed countries. Our results revealed that brucellosis is a risk factor for adverse reproductive outcomes. PROSPERO No: CRD4201912430

Immunoinformatics prediction of OMP2b and BCSP31 for designing multi-epitope vaccine against Brucella

Brucella poses a serious threat to human health. High quality vaccines for Brucella are urgently needed to effectively reduce the incidence of brucellosis. OMP2b and BCSP31 are important component proteins of the Brucella outer membrane and are highly immunogenic. Here, we used the bioinformatics software ProtParam, SOPMA, SWISS-MODEL, Rasmol, BepiPred, SYFPEITHI and IEDB to analyze the structure of these two proteins and predict the epitopes of T cells and B cells. Through analysis, we predicted three Th cell epitopes, seven CTL epitopes, eight B cell epitopes, and one T-B combined epitope of OMP2b protein. Subsequently, we also obtained three Th cell epitopes, six CTL epitopes, nine B cell epitopes and one T-B combined epitope of BCSP31 protein. The T-B combined epitopes and CTL epitopes of OMP2b and those of BCSP31 were synthesized to detect their immunogenicity. The IFN-γ ELISPOT assay showed that the T-B combined epitope peptides of OMP2b and BCSP31 activated Th cell immune responses. ELISA analysis detected the specific antibodies against the T-B combined epitope peptide of OMP2b and BCSP31 in the serum of Brucellosis patients. Additionally, CTL epitope peptide of OMP2b and BCSP31 proteins promoted the secretion of soluble perforin and granzyme B in the culture supernatant. In conclusion, our study shows that the T-B combined epitopes and CTL epitopes of OMP2b and BCSP31 have immunogenicity and immunoreactivity. Our results may lay a theoretical foundation for the development of vaccines against Brucella.

Spatial distribution of Brucellosis in Gansu province, 2013-2018

Objective: To analyze the spatial distribution and both hot and cold spots of incidence on Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018. Methods: Based on data from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China, data related to space-time distribution and both hot and cold spots of Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed, by using the ArcGIS 10.5 software and GeoDa 1.6 software. Results: The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from the northern to southern parts with slightly higher in the west than in the east of Gansu. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I of Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018 were 0.242, 0.487, 0.424, 0.460, 0.427 and 0.468 (P<0.01), suggesting that the incidence of Brucellosis had spatial clustering features in Gansu province. Local global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the number of hot spots were declining in the eastern and north-central regions while the hot spots were increasing in the Hexi area (Wuwei, Zhangye, Jinchang and Jiuquan cities). The cold spots areas were mainly seen in the eastern, southeastern and south of central regions in Gansu province. Conclusions: The incidence of Brucellosis showed obviously spatial clustering characteristics in Gansu province. The number of hot spots were decreasing in the eastern and north of central regions while the hot spots were increasing in the Hexi area, suggesting that the prevention and control measures for Brucellosis should be further strengthened in these areas.

Impact of geographical factors on the spread of animal brucellosis in the Republic of Kazakhstan

In Latin and Central America and in most Asian countries, brucellosis remains an insufficiently studied disease. This study aims to determine the national and regional incidence of brucellosis among cattle (cows) and small ruminants (sheep, goats) in the Republic of Kazakhstan, as well as to identify the effect of climatic and geographical factors on the incidence rates. Thematic maps were created in an open geographic information system QGIS version 2.8. in order to identify the natural and socio-economic factors that influence the spread of the disease overlay method was used. Local cluster analysis was used in order to identify additional causes of the disease. Findings show the following values of Pearson correlation between the overall population and the number of animals infected: 0.68 for cows, p ≤ 0.005, and 0.56 for sheep and goats, p ≤ 0.03. Thus, the larger the heard in a given area, the greater likelihood of having brucellosis. Data processing reveals that Kazakhstan has almost twice as many regions good for cattle breeding as regions that are good for the small ruminants farming. The correlation variables for cattle and small ruminants are approximately the same. On the basis of the performed research the author proposes to amend the accepted methodology of epidemiology surveillance by the methods based on spatial (geographical) analysis. It is also proposed to adjust the process of breeding cattle and small ruminants considering the additional health recommendations that take into account the geographical aspects of the spread of the disease.

Epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of several natural focus diseases in Gansu province, 2014-2018

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution of Brucellosis, epidemic encephalitis B and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Gansu province during 2014-2018 so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of those diseases. Methods: A database was established in Gansu province from 2014 to 2018, using the geographical information system. A spatial distribution map was drawn, with trend analysis and space-time clustering used to study the 3-dimention of the diseases, by using both ArcGIS 10.5 and SaTScan 9.6 softwares. Results: Results from the trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from north to south parts while the U type curve could reflect the distribution from the east to the west areas. Incidence of epidemic encephalitis B decreased significantly from south to north areas in the province, with incidence higher in the eastern than in the mid-west region. Difference on the incidence of HFRS was not significantly visible in the eastern and western regions, while the incidence was slightly higher in the southern than the northern parts of the province. Spatial and space-time clustering did exist among the 3 diseases in Gansu from 2014 to 2018. The areas with clusters of Brucellosis appeared in the eastern parts during 2014-2015, including 19 counties. The areas with secondary clusters of Brucellosis were seen in the Hexi district, including 4 counties, during 2017-2018. The areas with high incidence of epidemic encephalitis B were clustered in the middle and southeast areas, including 32 counties, during 2017-2018. Areas with most clusters of HFRS appeared in Min county of Dingxi city in 2018, with the areas of secondary clusters in 8 counties of the eastern areas in 2018. Conclusions: The overall incidence rates of the 3 natural focus diseases were in a upward trend and showing obvious characteristics on spatial clustering. According to the distributive characteristics, effective measures should be developed accordingly.

A comparison of three data mining time series models in prediction of monthly brucellosis surveillance data.

The early and accurately detection of brucellosis incidence change is of great importance for implementing brucellosis prevention strategic health planning. The present study investigated and compared the performance of the three data mining techniques, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs), in time series modelling and predicting of monthly brucellosis data from 2005 (March/April) to 2017 (February/March) extracted from a national public health surveillance system in Hamadan located in west of Iran. The performances were compared based on the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, determination coefficient (R2 ) and intraclass correlation coefficient criteria. Results indicated that the RF model outperformed the SVM and MARS models in modeling used data and it can be utilized successfully utilized to diagnose the behaviour of brucellosis over time. Further research with application of such novel time series models in practice provides the most appropriate method in the control and prevention of future outbreaks for the epidemiologist.

Progress in research and practice of brucellosis surveillance in China

In recent years, the reported incidence of brucellosis continued to rise and the epidemic spread kept, which has become an important public health problem in China. Continuous improvement of the surveillance system is important for effective control and prevention of brucellosis. This article systematically summarizes the construction and development of the brucellosis surveillance system, analyzes the main characteristics of the current brucellosis surveillance system and evaluates the surveillance system in China, and it also put forward suggestions for the further improvement of the surveillance system to meet the new requirement for brucellosis surveillance, control and prevention.

Analysis of Epizootiological-Epidemiological Situation on Brucellosis in the Russian Federation in 2018 and Forecast for 2019

Presented is the analysis of brucellosis incidence among humans and animals in the Russian Federation in 2018. Epizootiological situation in the regions of developed animal husbandry remains reasonably tense. In 2018, as in previous years, the foci of bovine cattle and small ruminant brucellosis were registered in the North Caucasian, Southern Federal Districts, Volga and Siberian Federal Districts, the share of which made up to more than 90% of all registered in Russia potentially hazardous as regards brucellosis areas and cases of the disease in animals. Against the background of long-term unfavorable epizootic condition, the incidence of brucellosis over the past three years was, on average, 14 % lower than the average long-term indicators. The greatest number of cases (94.1 % of the overall Russian incidence) is registered in the administrative subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District, Southern Federal District and Siberian Federal District, which have the maximum levels of brucellosis incidence in cattle (88.9 %) and small ruminants (95 %). In 2019, persistence of epidemiological problems in regard to brucellosis in the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District (primarily the Republic of Dagestan, Stavropol Territory), the Southern Federal District (the Republic of Kalmykia, Volgograd and Astrakhan Regions), and the Siberian Federal District (the Tuva Republic, the Omsk and Tyumen Regions) is predicted. The number of human cases of brucellosis may be within the range of 290–310 cases (intensive incidence rate per 100 thousand population – 0.21).