Inadequate Demand Research Articles

How to overcome rent seeking in Tanzania’s skills sector? Exploring feasible reforms through discrete choice experiments

Skills gaps and mismatches are widely documented as a hindrance to inclusive structural transformation across developing countries, especially in Africa. What is often overlooked, however, is the fact that skills development is a complex political economy process challenged by institutional and financing problems on the supply side, and inadequate demand, that is, a shortage of firms that can organise skilled labour and provide on-the-job training effectively. In such adverse contexts, rent seeking and corruption may arise from conflicting objectives, trade-offs and mis-aligned incentives among stakeholders – public sector skills providers and firms. With a focus on Tanzania, we (i) analyse the incentive structures underlying such rule-breaking behaviours and processes, and (ii) empirically test alternative institutional design strategies that would better align the interests of different stakeholders towards improved skills development outcomes. Building on over 30 in-depth stakeholder interviews in 2018, we conducted three Discrete Choice Experiments with over 200 firms to test the feasibility of different incentive packages in 2019. Our main hypothesis is that the successful re-alignment of stakeholders’ incentives must consider both the different and potentially conflicting objectives of public training institutions and the heterogeneity in skills needs and capabilities of different types of firms. We uncover latent preference structures differentiated by observable firm characteristics, most strongly by differences in technical capabilities, existing training provision and firm size. We conclude advancing an evidence-based tailored skills policy reform.

ORGANIC FARMING AND MARKETING CHALLENGES: A CASE STUDY OF HARYANA

The growing issues of health among people and increasing awareness for organic products has directed number of people towards organic consumption. This also led the number of opportunities for farmers to produce organic food. Along with the emerging opportunities, farmers are also facing challenges, thus this study aims to explore the limitations and challenges faced by farmers to switch over organic productions. The sample size for this study comprised 100 farmers from various districts in Haryana, which includes both organic as well as conventional producers. For this study, sequential form of mixed method is used, that is quantitative as well as qualitative. The major findings of qualitative analysis revealed six major market challenges namely, less production, shortage of warehousing facility, lack of government support especially in form of subsidy and promotion, inadequate demand of crops, market price issues and high cost of transportation. This study is to understand market challenges for organic farmers in a developing country like India. The findings of this study will contribute to various stakeholders at policy level to build better strategies to successful promotion of organic farming. This will definitely contribute in fulfilling healthy consumption in India as well as reaching the goals of sustainable development goals.

Challenges in the adoption of building information technology (BIM) technology in Indian construction industry (ICI)

Aim: This study aims to identify the challenges hindering the adoption of BIM technology in the ICI and provide insights into ways to overcome these challenges. Methodology: A questionnaire using a Likert scale was developed and distributed to 121 participants working for developers in the ICI. Factor analysis was conducted using SPSS 25 to examine the obtained data and identify the primary reasons that impede the adoption of BIM technology. Findings: Factor analysis of the data identified six main factors accounting for 74.31% of the variance. These factors included regulatory framework, lack of expertise, knowledge, and adoption, compatibility issues, resource limitations, and inadequate demand. Originality Value: The research above is unique since it specifically examines the obstacles that are preventing the widespread use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology in the building sector in India. While there is existing research on BIM adoption in other countries, there is a lack of comprehensive studies on the specific challenges faced by the Indian construction industry. This study provides insights into the main obstacles to BIM adoption in India and identifies six main factors that have not been extensively studied before. Additionally, the study uses a Likert scale questionnaire and factor analysis to analyze the data, which is a unique approach that has not been widely used in previous research on BIM adoption. Implications: The study’s findings offer valuable insights into the primary barriers hindering the adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in the construction sector of India.. The identified factors can help developers and policymakers in the industry overcome these challenges to improve project efficiency and outcomes. This study can also provide a foundation for future investigations into the adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM) in India and other emerging economies.. The implications of this study can contribute to the broader understanding of technology adoption in the construction industry, which can lead to better decision-making processes and improved project outcomes. Limitations and Scope for Future Research: The research has significant drawbacks. First, the study focused on the Indian construction industry and may not apply to other emerging or industrialized nations. Second, the limited sample size may restrict generalizability. The study solely examined BIM adoption barriers and did not provide solutions. Researchers might create techniques to overcome these obstacles and encourage BIM adoption in the Indian building sector. Finally, the research did not consider contractors, architects, and engineers, who may shed light on BIM adoption issues and solutions.

Management Model to Increase Inventory Rotation in SMEs in the Mining Industry

Logistics is an area that determines, in many cases, the prosperity of a company. Regardless of its size, the search for new tools, procedures and management techniques has increased in recent years. In the mining sector, the 49,9% of companies do not have an inventory control mechanism; therefore, a low turnover of this. This can be for three reasons: inefficient purchasing policy, inadequate demand planning, and inadequate storage method. For this reason, a model conformed by the following tools was developed: ABC classification, JIT, MRP, and inventory management. Likewise, the Arena Software was used in an SMEs that imported drill bits for the mining industry to validate the described model. The results were a 62% improvement over the purchasing policy, a 73% decrease in cycle time, and only the use of one worker for the import process, allowing the other worker to be in another area. Finally, with this research is possible to conclude that correct inventory management has a positive impact on the company's economy.

COVID-19 impact on the emergency and hospitalization of a tertiary hospital. Management lessons learned

IntroductionThe objective is to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the pediatric emergencies and hospital admissions. MethodsRetrospective cohort study of patients treated in a tertiary hospital, from March 14 to April 26, 2020, compared to the same period of the previous 3 years. ResultsA notable overall reduction in emergency room visits and admissions is observed in all pediatric areas, maintaining care in neonatology and scheduled admissions in oncology. DiscussionThe reduction in global activity in pediatric emergencies is not only explained by the decrease in contagious diseases. The decrease in inadequate demand and inappropriate income may have contributed. The availability of pediatric beds would make the reduction of programmed surgical activity unnecessary and would allow the redistribution of resources to areas with greater healthcare pressure.

Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from six national phone surveys

ObjectivesTo estimate the willingness to accept a COVID-19 vaccine in six sub-Saharan African countries and identify differences in acceptance across countries and population groups.DesignCross-country comparable, descriptive study based on a...

Impacto COVID-19 en la urgencia y hospitalización de un hospital terciario. Lecciones de gestión aprendidas

IntroductionThe objective is to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the pediatric emergencies and hospital admissions. MethodsRetrospective cohort study of patients treated in a tertiary hospital, from March 14 to April 26, 2020, compared to the same period of the previous 3 years. ResultsA notable overall reduction in emergency room visits and admissions is observed in all pediatric areas, maintaining care in neonatology and scheduled admissions in oncology. DiscussionThe reduction in global activity in pediatric emergencies is not only explained by the decrease in contagious diseases. The decrease in inadequate demand and inappropriate income may have contributed. The availability of pediatric beds would make the reduction of programmed surgical activity unnecessary and would allow the redistribution of resources to areas with greater healthcare pressure.

The impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): Evidence from two-wave phone surveys in China

This paper examines the short-term and mid-term impact of COVID-19 restrictions on SMEs, based on two waves of phone interviews with a previously surveyed large SME sample in China. The outbreak of COVID-19 and the resultant lockdowns took a heavy toll on SMEs. Afflicted by problems of logistics blocks, labor shortages, and drops in demand, 80% of SMEs were temporarily closed at the time of the first wave of interviews in February 2020. After reining in COVID-19, authorities largely eased lockdown restrictions in April. Consequently, most SMEs had reopened by the time of the second round of surveys in May. However, many firms, particularly export firms, were running at partial capacity, primarily due to inadequate demand. Moreover, around 19% of incorporated enterprises and 25% of self-employed businesses had permanently closed between the two waves of surveys.

Пандемия COVID-19: новый виток нарастания антибиотикорезистентности

In this article, we analyzed the problems associated with increasing antibiotic resistance, irrational use of antibiotics, and inadequate demand for them during the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective. Using the method of digital epidemiology, we analyzed the dynamics of the frequency of a specific request for antibiotics in pharmacies and hospitals. We used open data from Yandex (Wordstat.Yandex) and Google (Google Trends) collected on weekly basis for the Russian Federation. Results. The World Health Organization reports a growing problem of antibiotic misuse by some individuals and healthcare institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Extensive irrational use of antibiotics causes the development of antibiotic resistance by many microorganisms, including those circulating in hospitals (for example, ESKAPE group). Moreover, COVID-19 has led to an exponential increase in the use of biocides worldwide, potentially resulting in additional indirect pressure promoting the selection of antibiotic-resistant strains. The pandemic in Russia was marked by a significant increase in antibiotic sales in pharmacies (including systemic antibacterial agents) and purchases by healthcare institutions. Conclusion. Our findings demonstrate that the rapid spread of COVID-19 was associated with extensive consumption of antibiotics, which resulted in growing antibacterial resistance (number of circulating drug-resistant strains) and posed a threat to the national security. The COVID-19 necessitates the discovery of new effective treatments for this infection, as well as rational use of antimicrobial drugs. The implementation of surveillance of antibiotic consumption will help to identify changing trends in their use, combine efforts to solve problems related to antibiotics and drug resistance, and to ensure rational use of antimicrobials. Key words: antibiotics, antibiotic resistance, pandemic, COVID-19, digital epidemiology

Inadequate demand and reluctant supply: The limits of Chinese official development finance for foreign renewable power

This paper examines the puzzle of why China has thus far channeled a tiny fraction of its massive official development finance (ODF) for energy worldwide to solar and wind power. With a supply/demand analytical framework, our empirical analysis and field research show that both the foreign demand for Chinese ODF and the supply by the country’s two global policy banks face limits. The external demand is limited because foreign countries often approach non-Chinese sources for solar and wind power development finance; even when they turn to China for renewable power finance, they request more Chinese ODF for their hydropower and coal-fired power expansion. Meanwhile, shaped by their experience in renewable power finance in China and worried about the bankability of the solar and wind power projects abroad, the two Chinese policy banks exhibit sharpened risk sensitizations and biases against renewable power projects abroad.

The Secular Stagnation of Productivity Growth

The concern that an economy could experience persistent stagnation, caused by a structural weakness of aggregate demand, goes back to Alvin Hansen’s (1939) thesis of ‘secular stagnation’. Hansen’s thesis has been revived in recent times, when it became clear that productivity and potential growth in the OECD countries have been declining for decades. However, in line with deep-rooted theoretical beliefs, that inadequate demand can only affect growth in the short run, secular stagnation (of potential growth) is treated as an exclusively supply-side problem, the root of which is a worrying steady decline in productivity growth. This paper argues that it is a mistake to dismiss secular demand stagnation as main cause of declining potential growth in the OECD. We argue that the theoretical case for demand-caused secular stagnation is strong and empirical evidence that it has affected the U.S. economy after the mid-1970s is entirely convincing. Demand is leading supply, also in the long run. Hansen had it right, after all.

Understanding project cancellation risks in U.S. P3 surface transportation infrastructure

Public private partnership (P3) projects can face many internal and external risks affecting their development and implementation. As a result, this research explores the understudied risk factors underlying the U.S.’ cancelled, deferred, and terminated (CDT) P3 projects. A database of CDT projects is developed. Of the projects identified as the U.S. surface transportation P3 population, 46% (31 out of 68) experienced cancellation, deferment or early contract termination. The research then applied a risk typology and a multi-case study method to the troubled cases to identify common risk factors. Data collection focused primarily on the identification of political (public and political voice, bureaucratic complexity) and economic risk factors. The most frequently identified factors across the 31 cancelled, deferred, or terminated cases include political opposition, local opposition, and inadequate demand projections. Since the paper studies the entire U.S. surface transportation P3 project population, the results serve to inform public agencies and private sector actors of possible friction points meriting consideration during P3 procurement planning.

Marketing challenges and organic farming in India—Does farm size matter?

The growing health consciousness among the consumer and increasing awareness about organic food has led numerous opportunities for organic producers. Along with opportunities, there also arise challenges; thus, the main purpose of this study is to explore the marketing challenges faced by the organic and conventional farmers in India. The study also aims to examine the differential association of the marketing challenges on various farm sizes. The sample comprised 400 Indian farmers including both conventional and organic producers. A sequential form of mixed‐method design, that is, qualitative–quantitative, was applied. In the first phase, an exploratory study was convened to find out the marketing challenges among organic and conventional farmers. In the second (quantitative) phase, binomial and multinomial logistics regression was applied to ascertain the differential impact of the marketing challenges on the type of farming and different farm sizes. The results of the qualitative analysis revealed six major marketing challenges faced by the farmers, namely, lack of warehousing facility, lack of price information, inadequate demand for crop, costly transportation, market price variations, and lack of government support. The results suggest there are significant differences in the marketing challenges faced by the conventional and organic farmers across farm sizes. This study is among the few to examine the marketing challenges of organic and conventional farmers in a developing country such as India. The findings will help different stakeholders to frame policies and build strategies to promote organic farming, which will lead to sustainable and responsible consumption in India.

Country Risk, Corporate Strategy and Profitability: A System GMM Estimation for Multinational Banks in Sub Saharan Africa

Over the past 2 decades, foreign investment flows in Africa have steadily increased due to; high growth in GDP, economic liberalization, improved business climate (political and socioeconomic), the fast growth and continuous shifts in customer needs, improved general infrastructure development, technological advancement and the formation of free trade zones. However, political instability, government interference through deregulation, corruption, sharp practices, stiff competition, inadequate demand, cultural barriers and failing public infrastructures are factors to worry about. The dynamic environment in the region provides both opportunities and threats for businesses. This research examines the effect of country risk as a whole, and corporate strategy (diversification, debt and equity financing) on performance of multinational banks within sub Saharan Africa. To accomplish this, a panel dataset (2007-2017) on best performing multinational banks in the region is used. Accounting for the dynamic nature and persistent country risk, corporate strategy and bank profitability, a two-step system GMM estimator is used in the analysis. Results indicate country risk negatively and significantly affecting multinational bank performance. Corporate strategies: diversification and equity financing indicate a positive and significant effect on multinational banks’ profitability in terms of return on assets. The effect however, is higher for diversification than equity financing. Debt financing indicates a negative and significant effect on profitability of these banks. Also, the study finds no performance difference between the local indigenous, and overseas multinational banks. The resultant Arellano-Bond AR(1&2) test for zero autocorrelation, the Hansen test of overidentifying restrictions and the difference-in-Hansen test for the validity of the additional moment restriction necessary for system GMM; all, suggest that the underlying assumptions under the two-step system GMM estimator, are not violated since their p-values are very high. The implication of these tests is that the results obtained are robust, efficient and reliable.

A Theoretical Framework for Law and Macroeconomics

This article considers the effects of law within a Keynesian macroeconomic model. Using the investment-savings and liquidity-money (IS/LM) model at the heart of “short-run” macroeconomics, I argue that law affects spending (“aggregate demand”) and that the changes in spending induced by law can affect output. I contrast the law and macroeconomic perspective with the law and microeconomic approach that has dominated law and economics. I demonstrate that law’s effects on aggregate demand, invariably ignored in law and economics, become particularly important when monetary policy is constrained by the “zero lower bound” (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. At the ZLB, interest rates cannot adjust to bring aggregate demand into balance with the economy’s supply potential. Economic output falls short of its potential due to inadequate demand. At the ZLB, I argue that some micro-economically disfavored legal instruments, such as command and control regulation crafted to increase spending, become appealing relative to seemingly superior alternative instruments such as Pigovian taxation. I conclude by arguing that law offers a potentially important but unexplored instrument of macroeconomic policy.

A Theoretical Framework for Law and Macroeconomics

This Article considers the effects of law within a Keynesian macroeconomic model on the economy. Using the IS/LM model at the heart of “short-run” macroeconomics, I argue that law affects spending (“aggregate demand”) and that the changes in spending induced by law can affect output. I contrast the law and macroeconomic perspective with the law and microeconomic approach that has dominated law and economics. I demonstrate that law’s effects on aggregate demand become particularly important when monetary policy is constrained by the “zero lower bound” on nominal interest rates. At the zero lower bound, interest rates cannot adjust to bring aggregate demand into balance with the economy’s supply potential. Economic output falls short of its potential due to inadequate demand. At the zero lower bound, I argue that some micro-economically disfavored legal instruments, such as command and control regulation crafted to increase spending, become appealing relative to seemingly superior alternative instruments such as Pigovian taxation.

Long-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term electricity load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment on the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of the future load will result in insufficient generation and inadequate demand. As a first of its kind, this research proposes the use of a multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting electricity load for the long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, as accessed from a United States (U.S.) regional transmission operator, and recession data, accessed from the National Bureau of Economic Research, are used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. Historical volatility is used to account for implied volatility. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are: (i) loss functions in terms of mean absolute percentage error and mean squared error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and (ii) directional accuracy.

The New Normal: Demand, Secular Stagnation, and the Vanishing Middle Class

The U.S. economy is widely diagnosed with two “diseases”: a secular stagnation of potential U.S. growth and rising income and job polarization. The two diseases have a common root in the demand shortfall, originating from the “unbalanced” growth between technologically “dynamic” and “stagnant” sectors. To understand how the short-run demand shortfall carries over into the long run, this article first deconstructs the notion of total-factor-productivity (TFP) growth, the main constituent of potential output growth and “the best available measure of the underlying pace of exogenous innovation and technological change.” The article argues that there is no such thing as a Solow residual and demonstrates that TFP growth can only be meaningfully interpreted in terms of labor productivity growth. Because labor productivity growth, in turn, is influenced by demand factors, the causes of secular stagnation must lie in inadequate demand. Inadequate demand, in turn, is the result of a growing segmentation of the U.S. economy into a “dynamic” sector that is shedding jobs and a “stagnant” and “survivalist” sector that acts as an “employer of last resort.” The argument is illustrated with long-run growth-accounting data for the U.S. economy (1948–2015). The mechanics of dualistic growth are highlighted using a Baumol-inspired model of unbalanced growth. Using this model, it is shown that the “output gap,” the anchor of monetary policy, is itself a moving target. As long as this endogeneity of the policy target is not understood, monetary policy makers will continue to contribute to unbalanced growth and premature stagnation.

Health seeking behaviour among suspected cases of cholera in Cameroonian health districts in Lake Chad basin

BackgroundCholera outbreaks are recurrent in Cameroon and despite the efforts put together during epidemics, they are always associated with a high case fatality. Inadequate demand for health care is one of the major factors that might be responsible for the high case fatality. This study was conducted to describe the health seeking behaviour of suspected cases of cholera in four health districts of the Far North Cameroon.MethodsWe conducted a health facility based descriptive study involving suspected cases of cholera received in health facilities. Data was collected from August 2013 to October 2015 with the help of a questionnaire and analysis done by running frequency and calculating confidence interval at 95% with Epi Info version 3.5.4.ResultsA total of 1849 cases were enrolled, with 997 (53.9%) being males. 534 (28.9%) were children under the age of 5 and 942 (50.9%) were above the age of 14. About 373 (20%) of diarrhoeal patients arrived in the health facility more than 2 days following the onset of diarrhoea, with 916 (50%) of them being seriously dehydrated. Also, about 624 (34%) of these patients had sought treatment elsewhere before coming to the health facility where they were enrolled, and about 86% of them did not received ORS. Taking 2 or more days after diarrhoea onset or taking more than 1 h to travel from home to health facility was associated with severe dehydration in patients.ConclusionsThe delay between the onset of diarrhoea and seeking treatment from a health provider determines the seriousness of suspected cases of cholera in the Far North Cameroon. While conducting an anthropological study to understand reasons why a health provider is not the first option during diarrhoeal episodes, we recommend that a system of community case detection and reference to health facilities should be put in place during cholera outbreaks to minimize its case fatality rate.

DEMAND OF OUTSOURCING IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

The level of the collaboration of third-party logistics users and logistic service providers are elaborated in Turkey. The synergy which is expected to come out after this cooperation seems to be lacking. Therefore the industry of Turkey is operating by carrying the opportunity cost of this synergy. The purpose of this paper is defining the reasons of the necessity of third-party logistics (3PL) using and exploring the reasons of being reluctant to this kind of collaborations. An empirical study is conducted in industrial organizations in Turkey. The research is designed according to the structure of the Turkish companies and the main issues of the logistics. Semi-structured interview are used to collect information and learn the opinions of the managers of the companies. The responses from 7 logistic service provider companies and 10 from some other randomly selected companies were evaluated at this explaratory research, 17 valid responses are analyzed. According to findings of this study, the expected synergy does not seem to be able to appear before the removement of some prejudices and embracing the modern and effective methods. On the other hand, size of the companies is strictly correlated with outsourcing and it is the reason of inadequate demand in Turkey.