International Trade Research Articles

The Impact of Adjustment in US International Trade Tariffs on China

In the past few years, Trumps first presidency passed many trade policies aiming at reducing Chinas export to the US, which damaged both Chinese and the global economy. As Trumps forthcoming second presidency may cause further twists in international trade relations due to harsh tariff adjustments towards Chinese exports, this article aims to study the impact of trade policies during Trumps first presidency, what may happen next and what countermeasures can be used by related countries. This paper evaluates the trade policies passed during his first presidency and the corresponding impact on both China and US economies. The results show that Trumps policies increased price level in the US and broke the balance of trade between China and the US. With an expectation of stricter tariff adjustments in his second presidency, trade situation would become harsher for export-dependent countries such as China, Mexico and Canada. Therefore, this article suggests that these countries could improve trade partnership with each other, encourage domestic technological growth and increase domestic purchasing power as the countermeasures.

Research on Cross-border E-commerce Supply Chain Risk Management and Countermeasures -- Taking TikTok as an Example

With the rapid development of globalization and the Internet, cross-border e-commerce has become an important form of international trade, possessing significant growth potential. However, its supply chain is relatively complex and faces numerous risks, including delivery issues, policy changes, and warehouse management challenges. Although existing research has focused on the identification and management of supply chain risks, in-depth analyses of specific enterprises, such as TikTok Shop, remain limited. This study takes TikTok Shop as a case to explore risk management and response strategies within its cross-border e-commerce supply chain. Through literature review, SWOT analysis, and other methodologies, the main risks and their underlying causes encountered in TikTok Shops supply chain operations are systematically analyzed. The research finds that TikTok Shop primarily faces issues of unstable logistics, changes in international policies, and inadequate warehouse management. In response to these risks, this paper proposes strategies such as establishing corresponding risk response mechanisms and optimizing the warehouse system, aiming to enhance the stability and competitiveness of the supply chain. These findings provide strategic insights and references for cross-border e-commerce enterprises.

The Comparative Study on Bank Performance of BOCD and PNC

Global economic growth is decelerating by mid-2024, challenged by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and central bank interest rate hikes. Emerging markets strive for growth amid global labor skill mismatches and digital transformation, raising employment issues. International trade adjusts to political shifts, and climate policies drive economic change. The global economy faces critical challenges and opportunities, demanding vigilance and adaptability from policymakers and market participants. This study analyzes accounting data from the Bank of Chengdu (BOCD) and PNC Financial Services (PNC) from 2013 to 2022, comparing financial status and performance. PNC shows larger size, higher revenues, profits, EPS, and superior loan performance, while BOCD exhibits higher earnings growth, stronger profitability, and promising future performance. The paper aims to compare the business structure and profitability of U.S. and Chinese financial institutions within the same global economic context but different economic systems, excluding international visibility and trust effects.

Research on the Impact of Trade Wars and Protectionism on the Global Economy and South East Asia’s Coping Strategy

This study looks at how the U.S.-China trade conflict is affecting Southeast Asia, a region that depends largely on international commerce. Since the start of the trade war in 2018, nations in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, have seen a change in foreign direct investment (FDI) and disruption of global supply networks. The region faced both possibilities and problems as a result of this transformation, with long-term worries about labour markets, environmental degradation, and sustainability offsetting short-term economic advantages. The study identifies three main problems: the FDI inflow, the deterioration of multilateral trade institutions, and the disruption of global supply networks. Various approaches are suggested in response, such as fortifying regional trade networks, encouraging sustainable foreign direct investment, and advocating for more robust international trade frameworks like the World Trade Organisation. The results highlight how important it is for Southeast Asia to create robust and sustainable economic policies in order to lessen the impact of future interruptions to global commerce. In order to further hone these techniques, future research should concentrate on gathering primary data through surveys and interviews.

Interplay of Foreign Direct Investments, International Trade, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

Interplay of Foreign Direct Investments, International Trade, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

Artificial intelligence v/s human intelligence: a relationship between digitalization and international trade

PurposeThe influence of artificial intelligence (AI) on society has become a hot topic of discussion as it is being incorporated into academics and other fields. With the growing adoption of AI, this article focuses on a critical comparison between AI-driven insights and human intelligence in understanding complex issues. Specifically, it explores whether AI alone can effectively shape research agendas on the intersection of digitalization and international trade, or if human expertise remains indispensable.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs a comparative framework, comparing AI-generated insights on digitalization and international trade (via ChatGPT) with key perspectives derived from a comprehensive review of human-generated academic literature.FindingsThe findings reveal that while AI can significantly enhance research efficiency and streamline access to information, it falls short of fully replacing human intelligence. AI proves inadequate in delivering in-depth and comprehensive evaluations, particularly in complex fields like the interplay between digitalization and international trade. The analysis underscores that while human intelligence remains sufficient for conducting rigorous research, AI serves as an efficient but ultimately insufficient tool for fully analysing the intricate dynamics of digitalization and trade.OriginalityThis study uniquely investigates the comparative strengths and weaknesses of AI-generated versus human-generated insights, to evaluate the relationship between digitalization and international trade.

Reclaiming a Marsh in the Late Ottoman Empire: From a Local Initiative to a Large-Scale Enterprise in Serres

ABSTRACT The rise of the Eastern Mediterranean ports for international trade and the commercialization of agricultural production in the late Ottoman Empire made the land around the ports a profitable resource, prompting efforts to turn wetland regions into arable land. This article focuses on one such reclamation project in the empire’s Balkan territory of Serres, Thessalonica, along the River Karasu and Lake Tahyanos at the end of the nineteenth century. It narrates the development of the project from the initial efforts of the local administration into a full-fledged commercial enterprise. The reclamation process is shown to be highly contested as various actors and stakeholders, including the Public Debt Administration (PDA), international and domestic entrepreneurs, and peasants, struggled over the wetland region, and the central and local governments endeavoured to cope with the resulting difficulties.

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND LAW BASED ON BIBLIOMETRIC APPROACH

This study applies a bibliometric approach to investigate the complex dynamics of international trade and law by analyzing a 994 academic papers. Through methods like co-citation analysis and keyword frequency analysis, the study maps the intellectual landscape of the field, revealing significant research clusters related to international law, economic growth, global trade, and human rights. The analysis uncovers emerging trends in trade law evolution, the impact of globalization, environmental sustainability, and ethical concerns in trade agreements. By highlighting key research gaps and underexplored areas, the study offers valuable insights into the intersection of political, economic, and legal frameworks that shape global trade. It demonstrates the effectiveness of bibliometric analysis in synthesizing intricate information and guiding future scholarly research in international trade and law.

Freedom of Transit: A right for transit traffic to move across borders?

The world has become a global village, and various efforts have been made to facilitate trade, including transit traffic. In international trade, transit involves the movement of goods to the destination through third-party countries. Landlocked countries experience challenges in that they access trade with the rest of the world through seaports belonging to other territories. The freedom to transit through third party countries is therefore an important avenue that has gained traction in facilitating global trade. The freedom to transit is a concept that has evolved and improved over the years. This paper examines the efforts taken by international treaties to facilitate the movement of goods in transit: starting with the Barcelona Convention and Statute on Freedom of Transit of 1921, then the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and lately, the Trade Facilitation Agreement of the World Trade Organisation. The paper analyses the progressive liberalisation of the transit regime over a century and brings out the impact that has been contributed to international trade. The study established that the Barcelona Convention on Transit provided the foundation, while Article V of GATT 1994 built upon that foundation. The Trade Facilitation Agreement represents the latest effort to facilitate traffic in transit.

Climate-based measures of supply chain resilience

PurposeSupply chains are a complex but integral part of the food distribution system with unique vulnerabilities, as agricultural production is a function of biological processes and food goods are perishable necessities. Various shocks, including pandemics, geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather events, can cause disruptions to the food supply chain. International trade often plays an adaptive role in mitigating the effects of these shocks as it allows for a market-oriented redistribution of resources that can mitigate the impacts of localized shortages and surpluses.Design/methodology/approachWith this in mind, our goal is to combine information on weather shocks and trade flows to propose novel supply chain resilience metrics focusing on key weather drivers in over 50 countries. We focus on the role of extreme heat (degree days above 29°C) for maize, soybeans and rice, but the approach is general enough to be widely applied to any combination of crops, trade partners and weather/climate variables.FindingsWe focus on the role of extreme heat (degree days above 29°C) for maize, soybeans and rice, but the approach is general enough to be widely applied to any combination of crops and weather/climate variables. Leveraging globally gridded temperature data, we estimate the metrics for the United States and find a heterogeneous range of resilience across crops and risk dimensions. In addition, we provide a detailed look at the spatial correlations with the US and its historical trade partners and find evidence that these metrics could (potentially) be enhanced via strategic trade relationships.Research limitations/implicationsLeveraging globally gridded temperature data, we estimate the metrics for the United States of America and China to demonstrate differences that might arise from a net-exporter versus net-importer perspective. Our results suggest that these metrics can be useful for disentangling the resilience a country faces between its own internal supply chain versus its participation in other countries’ supply chains.Practical implicationsSince these metrics are a combination of exogenous spatial correlations of weather shocks and endogenous trade patterns, we also discuss how they can be adjusted via strategic trade relationships to enhance resiliency.Originality/valueOur results provide pertinent insights to US policymakers promoting export expansion under climate change (USDA FAS, 2024). Moreover, the metrics provided here are focused on climate resiliency and thus could be an important component of strategic trade decisions given the recent concerns between the US and Mexico centered around GM maize (Beckman et al., 2024) and the seemingly improving US–India agricultural trade relationship.

Information capacity in the mirror of foreign trade data? A case study of Chinese Maritime Customs, 1864–1938

AbstractThis paper introduces a new approach to explore the information capacity of the Chinese Maritime Customs from 1864 to 1938. It employs a mirror analysis by comparing Chinese Maritime Customs' international trade data with that of China's major trading partners: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Findings reveal that Chinese Maritime Customs' improvements in measuring foreign trade frequently coincided with its institutional reforms. The results highlight that these improvements were not uniform across different regions. Specifically, the persistent discrepancies between Chinese Maritime Customs’ and Japanese data underscore the influence of geopolitics since late 19th century.

ISDS Reform UNCITRAL: Implications For Indonesian Investment Policy

The United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Working Group III (WG III) has been meeting intensively to formulate comprehensive reforms to Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) based on emerging criticisms. In July 2017, UNCITRAL established Working Group III with a mandate to identify and evaluate ISDS-related concerns, consider the need or desirability of reforms, and develop relevant solutions. Some of the issues that have been identified in relation to the current ISDS mechanism include lack of consistency and predictability of arbitral awards by ISDS forums, lack of independence and impartiality of arbitrators, cost and duration of proceedings, and third-party financing. The WG III forum has formulated several options to address these issues: 1) establishment of a court mechanism, 2) appointment of arbitrators and adjudicators, 3) parties' involvement and control, 4) dispute prevention and mitigation: strengthening dispute prevention and mitigation mechanisms, 5) cost management and third-party financing transparency: efforts to manage costs and related procedures, as well as transparency in third-party financing. The findings indicate that Indonesia actively participates in WG III by advocating for balanced reforms that safeguard state sovereignty and public interest while addressing investor rights. Key recommendations include enhancing transparency and leveraging regional alliances to strengthen Indonesia’s position in international investment frameworks.

A short-run analysis of the impact of imports of Hass avocados from Mexico on the U.S. avocado industry

Abstract Using data from November 2011 to March 2022, we estimate a vector autoregression model to examine the relationship among Mexican Hass avocado imports, prices received, and volumes of Californian Hass avocados packed by California packers/handlers. We trace the impacts of changes in Mexican imports over a 12-month time horizon. A 1% increase in Mexican imports today leads to increases in pack prices of 0.21% and to decreases in pack volumes of 0.29% on average five months to twelve months later. The cumulative impact of a 1% increase in Mexican imports results in a 1.71% increase in pack prices and a 2.31% decrease in monthly pack volumes, translating to a 0.64% decline in monthly revenue accruing to California packers/handlers. Consequently, the modest rise in pack prices coupled with the modest shrinkage of volumes of Californian Hass avocados packed and the modest loss in revenue accruing to California packers/handlers suggest on the surface that Hass avocado imports from Mexico in the short run do not “seriously injure” the U.S. avocado industry. These findings also suggest that future U.S. avocado grower appeals for relief against imports from Mexico are not likely be upheld by the U.S. International Trade Commission. Our results are short term only and these effects, compounded over time, potentially may become injurious to producers and packers in California.

A theory of change to improve conservation outcomes through CITES

Understanding the effectiveness of Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) is critical to addressing international environmental issues. Here we articulate the implied theory of change (ToC) underpinning the design and operation of CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora), based on an analysis of the Convention’s documented evolution. We use this as a framework to critically evaluate the effectiveness of the Convention, with respect to its stated aims, using a range of theoretical and empirical insights. Although achieving success in various ways, CITES is proving ineffective at deterring illegal and/or unsustainable exploitation of many listed species for international trade, which we attribute to implementation and compliance issues and the Convention’s design, including a principal focus on deterrence through state-led law enforcement. Informed by this analysis we develop a modified ToC which could support more effective implementation of CITES. This ToC is intended for application at the species level and incorporates an in-depth examination of the social-ecological systems (SESs) within which species are harvested, used, and traded. This species-system ToC explicitly considers formal and informal institutions, and the use of institutional diagnostics to inform potential revisions to institutional arrangements along supply chains. We argue that taking this approach when considering whether and how to implement trade measures under CITES could enhance the effectiveness of these measures in reducing overexploitation and support legal, traceable, and more ecologically and socially sustainable international trade in wild species. Finally, we highlight the role that CITES could play in the broader global biodiversity governance regime; better alignment with other relevant MEAs could lead to more effective biodiversity conservation overall.

Delineating the environmental justice implications of an experimental cheetah introduction project in India

Project Cheetah in Kuno National Park was initiated to establish a population of African cheetahs in India due to the Asiatic subspecies’ extinction in the country since the 1950s. The project has received criticism from international conservationists for lacking conservation and scientific merit. Conservationists, particularly from India and South Africa, have raised concerns regarding the ecological criteria guiding its decision-making and concerns regarding a lack of scientific evidence in addition to potential political motivations. The concerns raised by the international community suggest that the project may not solely focus on conserving the African cheetah, which is classified as “Vulnerable” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), but could be guided by other agendas outside of conservation. Several cheetahs have died in the project’s couple of years, raising ethical concerns regarding the cheetahs’ welfare and high mortality rates demonstrated thus far, in addition to the perceived unjust social impacts on local stakeholders. In this perspective piece, we use Project Cheetah as a case study to exemplify broader issues applicable to rewilding and restoration projects that necessitate attention by proponents and authorities responsible for issuing the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) import and export permits.

RÁBA – Running Down a Dream

This article aims to introduce to the reader the story of the RÁBA Hungarian machinery factory and its connections to North-Africa. As the RÁBA consortium was one of the largest industrial company in Hungary from the beginning of the 20th century, it surely has a long history with Africa to be told. The article firstly gives a historical review of the company, then it turns to describe the role of the machinery factory in the international trade and then the life of the famous Mr. Ede Horváth (CEO of RÁBA), a relative of the author gets to be examined. The article then takes every era of Egyptian politics (the Infitāh with Sadat, the Mubarak years), and continues to describe the business the company made with the country. After concluding the findings, there is an interesting appendix with the memoirs of the author which colours lively the experiences and thoughts of the author. The theme is very actual and with its interesting forms and stories that it includes is more than recommended for the reader. The article’s aim finally is to give a comprehensive picture about the Soviet era’s businesses between Hungary and Africa, which it surely describes well enough.

ARE THERE TIME-VARYING CAUSALITIES BETWEEN TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND CARBON EMISSION TRANSFER? NEW EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

In this paper, we examine the relationship between Chinese carbon emission transfer and trade policy uncertainty. We identify the evidence of bidirectional Granger causality using the bootstrap rolling-window approach, and further test the influence mechanism using a logit model. Empirical results spanning different sub-samples reveal a two-way causal relationship between trade policy uncertainty and carbon emission transfer. Trade policy uncertainty will reduce carbon emission transfer indirectly by limiting international trade and foreign direct investment. Whereas trade policy uncertainty will boost carbon emission transfer by increasing technological innovation hurdles. Conversely, carbon emission transfer exacerbates trade policy uncertainty through strategic environmental policies and carbon tariffs. This discovery broadens the research on trade policy uncertainty to environmental concerns, and time-varying causation expands the impact path of carbon emission transfer while clarifying global carbon emission responsibility. The findings recommend a responsible trading strategy based on environmental considerations and international cooperation to limit carbon transfer.

‘Unmaking’ of International Trade Law?: A Crisis of the Rule-Based International Trading System

Several decades since the end of World War II have shown unprecedented expansion of international trade and economic growth. This historic economic success is owed, in large part, to the stability of international trade under the rule-based international trading system of the GATT and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The long period of growth and economic prosperity may draw to an end as the major traders, such as the United States, China, and the European Union, have systematically undermined the rules of international trade, which is imperative to maintaining a stable international trading system. As a result, some of its core provisions, such as those stipulating the prohibition of unilateral trade measures, the regulation of trade-related subsidies, and the multilateral trading dispute settlement mechanism, may no longer be functional. The cost of undermining the multilateral trade disciplines is a risk of return to the power-based international trading system that existed before the establishment of the GATT and the WTO, which acerbated the Great Depression of the 1930s and provided a cause for the most destructive and tragic world war in history. This article examines the measures of the major traders that critically undermine the core provisions of international trade law and assesses their implications for the rule-based international trading system.

Creating a New Payment Instrument for BRICS Countries as an Alternative to Petrodollars

This research work is dedicated to the comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of the creation of a new payment instrument by the BRICS countries on international trade, the economy, and the relations between the countries of this bloc. The research aims to identify possible changes in the structure of global trade, to investigate its impact on the interaction with tax, customs, and other barriers, and to determine potential benefits for the participating countries of this initiative. The research methodology is based on a comprehensive analysis of both theoretical and practical aspects of the relationship between international trade and currency mechanisms. The methods employed in writing this research work include extensive analysis of statistical data, examples from contemporary economic practice, as well as scientific, historical, and news publications from various time periods. The results and conclusions drawn by the researchers indicate that the creation of a new payment instrument by the BRICS countries may lead to significant shifts in the structure of international trade, facilitated by a reduction in dependence on the US dollar and encouragement of the use of alternative currency mechanisms. Furthermore, it is concluded that the development and implementation of a new payment instrument could have a positive impact on streamlining trade operations by improving interaction with customs barriers, thereby enhancing the efficiency of international trade and reducing costs associated with cross-border transactions. The research findings have a broad scope of application, encompassing international trade, foreign economic relations, geopolitics, financial market policies, and strategic economic development planning. The authors’ conclusions underscore the importance of creating fundamentally new currency settlement mechanisms to establish infrastructure for ensuring sustainable and equitable global economic development, as well as to enhance the competitiveness of participating countries and their integration into global economic processes.

Creative industries in global trade: An international competitiveness analysis

Creative industries are increasingly recognized as key drivers of sustainable economic development. This study examines the international trade competitiveness of 226 economies in the creative industries, utilizing seven widely utilised indices of trade competitiveness for the most recent year data available, 2023. The analysis explores export, import, and trade balance patterns across various economic groups, regions, and major economies in creative industries. It also identifies the export value of the most traded ten creative industries products worldwide. Findings reveal that approximately 78% of the 226 countries exhibit comparative disadvantages or lack international competitiveness in creative industries. Notably, there is a high concentration of competitiveness in the creative industries around certain major countries, particularly in Asia-Pacific and European regions, including countries such as Türkiye, Italy, India, China, Indonesia, France, Vietnam, Poland, Portugal, Thailand, and Spain. Furthermore, 10 out of 262 creative industry products account for 52.4% of creative industries exports in the world, indicating a high level of product concentration in creative industries. This study also reveals that inter-industry trade, driven by comparative advantage, is the dominant pattern in international creative industries trade, with only around 3% of countries exhibiting intra-industry trade patterns.