Low-saturation reservoirs have complex geological backgrounds, diverse genetic mechanisms, poor physical properties, variable pore structures, and low permeabilities. It also has a wide range of oil–water coexistences and low oil saturations, which make it difficult to accurately calculate their water production rate. To address these issues, this study investigates low-saturation reservoirs in the Nanpu Sag, focusing on petrophysical characteristics and relative permeability variations in samples with different pore structures. A range of petrophysical experiments, including coupled oil-water phase percolation, petroelectrical testing, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and X-ray diffraction (XRD), were conducted to analyze fluid interactions and pore structure impacts. From these experiments, a new pore structure factor was proposed to enhance the existing curved capillary theory. The results showed that this modification improved calculation accuracy for water production rate. The enhanced model was applied to actual logging data and validated against test production results, demonstrating its effectiveness. This study offers both theoretical and practical advancements. It improves the understanding of fluid dynamics in low-saturation reservoirs and provides a reliable tool for fluid identification during exploration. This model can guide more accurate reservoir assessments and support optimized production strategies, improving efficiency in managing these challenging reservoir environments.
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