Water retention, hepatic ascites, and peripheral edema are significant problems in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). Although furosemide and spironolactone are commonly used as treatment, they are often insufficient to treat hyponatremia and renal insufficiency in patients with LC. Tolvaptan (TVP) could provide an effective treatment alternative. However, predictive factors of a therapeutic response to TVP are unclear. Our aim was to examine clinical predictors of the response to TVP in patients with LC and water retention. Fifty-two patients were treated with TVP, with therapeutic effects judged by a decrease in body weight (≥2kg) and increase in urinary volume (≥500mL) within 7days. Blood biochemical tests were carried out at baseline and post-treatment, including serum soluble CD14 (sCD14) and urinary aquaporin 2 (AQP2) levels. Clinical and laboratory predictive factors of a TVP response were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. The overall response to TVP was 55.8%. On univariate analyses, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, urinary blood urea nitrogen, and urinary AQP2 were predictors of the TVP response, with only serum CRP retained on multivariate analysis. A higher serum sCD14 level was strongly associated with a non-response to TVP. A decrease in urinary AQP2 to undetectable level was associated with a response. Tolvaptan provides a rapid and strong effect to improve water retention in patients with LC. Baseline serum sCD14 and CRP levels are useful predictors of a response to TVP, with a decrease in urinary AQP2 during treatment indicating an early response.