Import Risk Analysis Research Articles

The precautionary principle and its approach to risk analysis and quarantine related to the trade of marine ornamental fishes in Brazil

The objective of this study was to employ the precautionary principle in import risk analysis (IRA) and quarantine in the trade of marine ornamental fishes (MOF). The analysis focused on the example of Brazil, as it imports and exports these fishes, in amounts that are globally significant. These processes, since their collection in nature, may expose the fish to stress, which may lead to the development of diseases. The legislation that regulates IRA and quarantine is derived from the Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply and Fisheries and Aquaculture. The quarantine of MOF in Brazil is not undertaken by government agencies, but by commercial establishments that are registered with the Ministries, and is way too short. According to the data obtained, the precautionary approach is not applied at all in this trade, as scientific information is not contemplated by the legislation, and law is not enforced.

From the Editors

From the Editors

Exploring Risk Judgments in a Trade Dispute Using Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical modeling tools that are generally recommended for exploring what-if scenarios, visualizing systems and problems, and for communication between stakeholders during decision making. In this article, we investigate their potential for exploring different perspectives in trade disputes. To do so, we draw on a specific case study that was arbitrated by the World Trade Organization (WTO): the Australia-New Zealand apples dispute. The dispute centered on disagreement about judgments contained within Australia's 2006 import risk analysis (IRA). We built a range of BNs of increasing complexity that modeled various approaches to undertaking IRAs, from the basic qualitative and semi-quantitative risk analyses routinely performed in government agencies, to the more complex quantitative simulation undertaken by Australia in the apples dispute. We found the BNs useful for exploring disagreements under uncertainty because they are probabilistic and transparently represent steps in the analysis. Different scenarios and evidence can easily be entered. Specifically, we explore the sensitivity of the risk output to different judgments (particularly volume of trade). Thus, we explore how BNs could usefully aid WTO dispute settlement. We conclude that BNs are preferable to basic qualitative and semi-quantitative risk analyses because they offer an accessible interface and are mathematically sound. However, most current BN modeling tools are limited compared with complex simulations, as was used in the 2006 apples IRA. Although complex simulations may be more accurate, they are a black box for stakeholders. BNs have the potential to be a transparent aid to complex decision making, but they are currently computationally limited. Recent technological software developments are promising.

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis – a Review of Current Methods and Practice

The application of risk analysis to the spread of disease with international trade in animals and their products, that is, import risk analysis (IRA), has been largely driven by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The degree to which the IRA standard established by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and associated guidance, meets the needs of the SPS agreement is discussed. The use of scenario trees is the core modelling approach used to represent the steps necessary for the hazard to occur. There is scope to elaborate scenario trees for commodity IRA so that the quantity of hazard at each step is assessed, which is crucial to the likelihood of establishment. The dependence between exposure and establishment suggests that they should fall within the same subcomponent. IRA undertaken for trade reasons must include an assessment of consequences to meet SPS criteria, but guidance is sparse. The integration of epidemiological and economic modelling may open a path for better methods. Matrices have been used in qualitative IRA to combine estimates of entry and exposure, and consequences with likelihood, but this approach has flaws and better methods are needed. OIE IRA standards and guidance indicate that the volume of trade should be taken into account, but offer no detail. Some published qualitative IRAs have assumed current levels and patterns of trade without specifying the volume of trade, which constrains the use of IRA to determine mitigation measures (to reduce risk to an acceptable level) and whether the principle of equivalence, fundamental to the SPS agreement, has been observed. It is questionable whether qualitative IRA can meet all the criteria set out in the SPS agreement. Nevertheless, scope exists to elaborate the current standards and guidance, so they better serve the principle of science-based decision-making.

From the Editors

From the Editors

A Systems Approach to the Policy‐Level Risk Assessment of Exotic Animal Diseases: Network Model and Application to Classical Swine Fever

Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.

How to Model a Negligible Probability Under the WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement?

Since the 1997 EC--Hormones decision, World Trade Organization (WTO) Dispute Settlement Panels have wrestled with the question of what constitutes a negligible risk under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. More recently, the 2010 WTO Australia--Apples Panel focused considerable attention on the appropriate quantitative model for a negligible probability in a risk assessment. The 2006 Australian Import Risk Analysis for Apples from New Zealand translated narrative probability statements into quantitative ranges. The uncertainty about a "negligible" probability was characterized as a uniform distribution with a minimum value of zero and a maximum value of 10(-6) . The Australia - Apples Panel found that the use of this distribution would tend to overestimate the likelihood of "negligible" events and indicated that a triangular distribution with a most probable value of zero and a maximum value of 10⁻⁶ would correct the bias. The Panel observed that the midpoint of the uniform distribution is 5 × 10⁻⁷ but did not consider that the triangular distribution has an expected value of 3.3 × 10⁻⁷. Therefore, if this triangular distribution is the appropriate correction, the magnitude of the bias found by the Panel appears modest. The Panel's detailed critique of the Australian risk assessment, and the conclusions of the WTO Appellate Body about the materiality of flaws found by the Panel, may have important implications for the standard of review for risk assessments under the WTO SPS Agreement.

Interpreting risk in international trade

After an eight year risk analysis process, Biosecurity Australia released its final import risk analysis (IRA) in 2006, allowing apple imports from New Zealand into Australia, subject to stringent phytosanitary measures. New Zealand apple imports were previously banned due to the risks of transmitting pests and diseases, in particular, fire blight. New Zealand commenced dispute settlement proceedings at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the grounds that Australia’s risk mitigation measures were scientifically unjustified, thus violating international trade law. The WTO largely ruled in New Zealand’s favour in August 2010, and again in November after Australia unsuccessfully appealed. This paper argues that the cause and nature of this dispute stem largely from the varied risk interpretations in the context of international trade and, by extension, from the non-scientific factors (such as values, interests and politics) shaping these interpretations. It examines the risk analysis, identifying a number of potentially important risk governance issues in the IRA process, derives the judgements and perspectives of the main stakeholders and the factors influencing their position, and finally analyses the case in the context of the WTO dispute settlement system. Despite the intent of the relevant WTO legislation, the dispute may not be appropriately reconciled through scientific considerations alone. The case study is used to explore the challenges accompanying import risk analysis under severe uncertainty.

The application of risk and disease modelling to emerging freshwater diseases in wild aquatic animals

Summary1. Emerging diseases pose significant ecological and economic threats in fresh waters. Both risk assessment and mathematical modelling have potential to improve our understanding of the uncertainties associated with emerging disease events and make informed predictions about their likely impact.2. We review the different methodologies that may be used to estimate the likely geographic spread and potential impact of new and emerging diseases in fresh waters. We also highlight the limitations of the currently available methods and requirements for future development.3. In the realm of aquatic animal health, risk assessment has been used mainly to examine the risks of disease spread through international trade import risk analysis (IRA). Import risk analysis of newly emerged diseases underpins the development of appropriate risk mitigation measures to minimise further spread. This is best illustrated by assessments of the spread of Gyrodactylus salaris and also illustrates how risk assessment can examine disease interaction between wild and farmed fish.4. Various approaches have been employed to study disease transmission within freshwater fish populations at a range of spatial scales. There is scope for the application of these techniques to predict the impact of economically and environmentally important emerging freshwater diseases that arise from new pathogens, known diseases spreading to new locations or changes in pathogenicity owing to changing environmental conditions (e.g. because of climate change).5. Population models are widely used in freshwater fishery management. The integration of disease processes within freshwater aquatic animal population models is required to provide tools to assess the likely impact of newly emerged diseases and allow mitigation measures to be assessed.6. Compared with their use in other areas of animal health, modelling has been relatively little used for aquatic animal disease studies. The wide range of modelling methods used to study disease in human and terrestrial animals can usefully be applied to inform the development of policies to protect the health of wild stocks from emerging diseases.

Comparison of veterinary import risk analysis studies

Twenty-two veterinary import risk analyses (IRAs) were audited No significant differences were detected between different types of IRAs, although quantitative IRAs and IRAs published in peer-reviewed journals tended to have higher scores than qualitative and report-published IRAs. Unexpectedly, no difference in scores was observed between IRAs that were classified as adhering to the OIE guidelines and those that did not. Reviewer bias was detected for the absolute scores given to the IRAs, although ranking of IRAs was reasonably consistent across reviewers. The audit spreadsheet should undergo further adaptation with a focus on hazard identification and risk assessment. We recommend that reviewing IRAs using the audit spreadsheet be done by a multidisciplinary group that comprises both specialists on risk assessment methodology and on the risk that is assessed.

The application of epidemiology in aquatic animal health -opportunities and challenges.

Over recent years the growth in aquaculture, accompanied by the emergence of new and transboundary diseases, has stimulated epidemiological studies of aquatic animal diseases. Great potential exists for both observational and theoretical approaches to investigate the processes driving emergence but, to date, compared to terrestrial systems, relatively few studies exist in aquatic animals. Research using risk methods has assessed routes of introduction of aquatic animal pathogens to facilitate safe trade (e.g. import risk analyses) and support biosecurity. Epidemiological studies of risk factors for disease in aquaculture (most notably Atlantic salmon farming) have effectively supported control measures. Methods developed for terrestrial livestock diseases (e.g. risk-based surveillance) could improve the capacity of aquatic animal surveillance systems to detect disease incursions and emergence. The study of disease in wild populations presents many challenges and the judicious use of theoretical models offers some solutions. Models, parameterised from observational studies of host pathogen interactions, have been used to extrapolate estimates of impacts on the individual to the population level. These have proved effective in estimating the likely impact of parasite infections on wild salmonid populations in Switzerland and Canada (where the importance of farmed salmon as a reservoir of infection was investigated). A lack of data is often the key constraint in the application of new approaches to surveillance and modelling. The need for epidemiological approaches to protect aquatic animal health will inevitably increase in the face of the combined challenges of climate change, increasing anthropogenic pressures, limited water sources and the growth in aquaculture.Table of contents1 Introduction 42 The development of aquatic epidemiology 73 Transboundary and emerging diseases 93.1 Import risk analysis (IRA) 103.2 Aquaculture and disease emergence 113.3 Climate change and disease emergence 133.4 Outbreak investigations 134 Surveillance and surveys 154.1 Investigation of disease prevalence 154.2 Developments in surveillance methodology 164.2.1 Risk-based surveillance and scenario tree modelling 164.2.2 Spatial and temporal analysis 164.3 Test validation 175 Spread, establishment and impact of pathogens 185.1 Identifying routes of spread 185.1.1 Ex-ante studies of disease spread 195.1.2 Ex-post observational studies 215.2 Identifying risk factors for disease establishment 235.3 Assessing impact at the population level 245.3.1 Recording mortality 245.3.2 Farm health and production records 265.3.3 Assessing the impact of disease in wild populations 276 Conclusions 317 Competing interests 328 Authors' contributions 329 Acknowledgements 3310 References 33

Improving Quarantine Risk Communication: Understanding Public Risk Perceptions

Maintaining the health and wealth of Australia depends vitally on protecting the nation's environmental and cultural treasures while capitalizing on the opportunities presented by new technologies and products. Achieving a balance between protection and progression, however, is influenced considerably by prevailing perceptions of the risks associated with imported commodities. A persistent community view is that a no quarantine policy is a viable option. In contrast, import risk analysts view the expectation of a no policy as untenable, given that Australia is a major agricultural trading nation and has international obligations as a member of the World Trade Organization and a signatory to the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade.Biosecurity Australia, a group within the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Australia (AFFA), recognizes that public consultation and communication must be an essential part of the import risk analysis process if the community is to share the ownership and responsibility of effective quarantine policies. However, efforts to improve public participation so far have paid little attention to understanding what deter- mines public perceptions of import risks and what methods will effectively engage the public in meaningful dialogue about their expectations and responsibilities.

Molecular differentiation of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus isolates from farmed and wild salmonids in Ireland

This study investigated the genotypes and sub-groups of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) present in farmed and wild salmonid fish in Ireland. An 1100-bp portion of the VP2 region of segment A from each of 55 IPNV isolates collected over 2003-2007 was amplified by reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction and the product directly sequenced. The nucleotide sequences of each isolate were aligned and compared with each other and with the corresponding sequences of a number of reference isolates. All the 55 sequenced isolates belonged to genogroup 5 (Sp serotype) and could be divided into two subgroups. Irish subgroup 1 consisted of isolates from farmed salmon originating from an Irish salmon broodstock. Irish subgroup 2 consisted of isolates from imported farmed stock and all reported clinical outbreaks of IPN were associated with isolates from subgroup 2. Isolates from wild fish were identical to some isolates from subgroup 2, and therefore are believed to have originated from infected farms. These results highlight the importance of import risk analysis for diseases not listed under current legislation.

Hot water treatment of Dracaena and Yucca cuttings against Opogona sacchari

EPPO BulletinVolume 39, Issue 1 p. 28-28 Free Access Hot water treatment of Dracaena and Yucca cuttings against Opogona sacchari First published: 11 March 2009 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2338.2009.02225.x European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization Organisation Européenne et Méditerranéenne pour la Protection des Plantes AboutSectionsPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat PM 10/2 (1) Specific scope This standard describes hot water treatment of Dracaena and Yucca cuttings against Opogona sacchari. This is an alternative to PM 10/3 (previously standard PM 3/14). Specific approval and amendment First approved in 2008-09. Introduction Opogona sacchari, the sugar cane borer, originates in the humid tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, where it is not a significant pest. However, O. sacchari is a serious pest of many protected ornamental plant species, and is listed in EC plant health legislation (EPPO/CABI, 1997). It has frequently been intercepted on Yucca and Dracaena (e.g. Dracaena fragrans, a popular variety) and early stages of larval tunnelling in woody or fleshy cuttings are practically undetectable. The cuttings remain viable for long periods, thus enabling disinfestation treatments to be conducted during storage. Commodities/regulated articles Cuttings11 This treatment can be used on both rooted and unrooted cuttings. The experimental work was carried out on standard commercially-grown yucca cuttings (approximately 3–4 cm in diameter). of Yucca (UCCSS) and Dracaena (DRNSS) Pests Opogona sacchari (OPOGSC) Treatment schedule Select a water bath with a much larger volume (3- to 4-fold over-capacity) than that of the Yucca or Dracaena cuttings to be treated22 This over-capacity minimizes the decrease in temperature caused by immersion of the cuttings. . Pre-heat the water to 47°C and completely immerse the cuttings for 1 h33 Due to the buoyancy of the material, it will need to be held down by placing a grid on top of the cuttings and placing sufficient weight on it. . The 1 h-treatment should not commence until the water temperature has returned to 47°C following immersion of the cuttings. After 1 h transfer the cuttings to another water-bath at 20°C, and immerse for at least 10 min to allow cuttings to cool down. They should then be left to dry for a few hours before packing. Efficacy of treatment Results presented by Walters et al. (2002) showed that disinfestation of both Yucca and Dracaena cuttings infected with Opogona sacchari is possible with a hot water treatment of 60 min at 47°C followed by 10 min at 20°C44 Relatively minor growth retardation was seen in both plant species after the treatment although the sprouts developed slightly lower on the stem than in the controls. . Experimental details are provided. A full immersion in hot-water at 50°C for 14 min is accepted as a phytosanitary treatment for Dracena cut flowers and branches by New Zealand's Ministry of Agriculture and Food (Anonymous, 2002). Footnotes 1 This treatment can be used on both rooted and unrooted cuttings. The experimental work was carried out on standard commercially-grown yucca cuttings (approximately 3–4 cm in diameter). 2 This over-capacity minimizes the decrease in temperature caused by immersion of the cuttings. 3 Due to the buoyancy of the material, it will need to be held down by placing a grid on top of the cuttings and placing sufficient weight on it. 4 Relatively minor growth retardation was seen in both plant species after the treatment although the sprouts developed slightly lower on the stem than in the controls. References Anonymous (2002) Import Risk Analysis of Cordyline and Dracaena Cut Flowers and Branches for the Development of a Generic Import Health Standard. New Zealand MAF Biosecurity Authority, Wellington (NZ). Web of Science®Google Scholar EPPO/CABI (1997) Opogona sacchari. Quarantine Pests for Europe, 2nd edn, pp. 414– 417. CAB International, Wallingford (GB). Google Scholar Walters KFA et al . (2002) New Quarantine Treatments for Horticultural and Timber Products as Alternatives to Methyl Bromide Fumigation. FAIR CT98 4259. Google Scholar Enquiries Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, YO41 1LZ, GB. Volume39, Issue1April 2009Pages 28-28 ReferencesRelatedInformation

Some Limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence” for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks

Several important risk analysis methods now used in setting priorities for protecting U.S. infrastructures against terrorist attacks are based on the formula: Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequence. This article identifies potential limitations in such methods that can undermine their ability to guide resource allocations to effectively optimize risk reductions. After considering specific examples for the Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) framework used by the Department of Homeland Security, we address more fundamental limitations of the product formula. These include its failure to adjust for correlations among its components, nonadditivity of risks estimated using the formula, inability to use risk-scoring results to optimally allocate defensive resources, and intrinsic subjectivity and ambiguity of Threat, Vulnerability, and Consequence numbers. Trying to directly assess probabilities for the actions of intelligent antagonists instead of modeling how they adaptively pursue their goals in light of available information and experience can produce ambiguous or mistaken risk estimates. Recent work demonstrates that two-level (or few-level) hierarchical optimization models can provide a useful alternative to Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequence scoring rules, and also to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques that ignore rational planning and adaptation. In such two-level optimization models, defender predicts attacker's best response to defender's own actions, and then chooses his or her own actions taking into account these best responses. Such models appear valuable as practical approaches to antiterrorism risk analysis.

Utilización real o posible de modelos para controlar y prevenir emergencias sanitarias en animales acuáticos

Models are tools that aid managers to make decisions in a transparent manner. Models are implicitly used to devise any management plan, but scientific modelling makes the approach explicit and transparent. Simple models are often more useful than complex models, especially when time and data are short--as in many emergency situations. Four areas in which modelling can help aquatic animal health managers to control or prevent disease emergencies are identified, and their application reviewed. These areas are: models of factors behind disease outbreaks; models for the design of efficient surveillance; models of disease spread (subdivided into Susceptible-Infected-Removed [SIR] models, coupled hydrodynamic-particle transport models and network models); and models to evaluate the consequences of disease outbreaks. Import risk analysis and SIR modelling have been applied fairly extensively; risk-based surveillance is likely to be a driver for increased modelling effort in the near future.

Evaluating extreme risks in invasion ecology: learning from banking compliance

ABSTRACTIncreasing international trade has exacerbated the risks of ecological damage due to invasive pests and diseases. For extreme events such as invasions of damaging exotic species or natural catastrophes, there are no or very few directly relevant data, so expert opinion must be relied on heavily. Expert opinion must be as fully informed and calibrated as possible – by available data, by other experts, and by the reasoned opinions of stakeholders. We survey a number of quantitative and non‐quantitative methods that have shown promise for improving extreme risk analysis, particularly for assessing the risks of invasive pests and pathogens associated with international trade. We describe the legally inspired regulatory regime for banks, where these methods have been brought to bear on extreme ‘operational risks’. We argue that an ‘advocacy model’ similar to that used in the Basel II compliance regime for bank operational risks and to a lesser extent in biosecurity import risk analyses is ideal for permitting the diversity of relevant evidence about invasive species to be presented and soundly evaluated. We recommend that the process be enhanced in ways that enable invasion ecology to make more explicit use of the methods found successful in banking.

Current value of historical and ongoing surveillance for disease freedom: Surveillance for bovine Johne's disease in Western Australia

‘Confidence’ in freedom from disease is generally derived from multiple sources of varied surveillance information, and typically this surveillance evidence has been accumulated over time. In the state of Western Australia (WA) the main surveillance evidence supporting Free Zone status in the national bovine Johne's disease (BJD) program comprises periodic surveys and the ongoing clinical diagnostic system. This paper illustrates a simple approach to current valuation of historical surveillance information, based on the calculated sensitivity of the surveillance processes, the time elapsed since the data were accumulated, and the probability of new introduction of disease into the population during that elapsed time. Surveillance system components (SSCs) contributing to the overall sensitivity of the surveillance system were the clinical diagnostic system and periodic targeted surveys. Sensitivity of each component was estimated using a stochastic scenario tree model of the surveillance process as implemented. Probability of introduction of BJD into WA during each time period was estimated retrospectively from a stochastic import risk analysis model applied to actual cattle importation data. The probability that the WA cattle population was free from infection (at design prevalences of 0.2% of herds and 2% of animals within an infected herd) was estimated following each of 11 years, giving a median probability that the State was free of BJD (at these design prevalences) at the end of 2005 of 0.89. The meaning of this result is discussed.

Assessing biosecurity risks from imported materials

Biosecurity Australia is responsible for assessing and providing policy advice on the sanitary (animal health) and phytosanitary (plant health) risks arising from imports of people, animals and plants, and other goods and materials entering Australia. Biosecurity Australia meets this responsibility by undertaking import risk analyses (IRAs) to establish policy and by conducting reviews of existing policy as necessary. If Biosecurity Australia assesses the risk of a proposed import as acceptable (with or without risk management measures), it makes a recommendation to the Director of Animal and Plant Quarantine, who makes a determination. The Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service (AQIS) implements this policy determination, by issuing an import permit and ensuring that any recommended risk management measures are undertaken.

The incidence of honey bee pests and diseases in England and Wales

The Central Science Laboratory (CSL) National Bee Unit (NBU) has been responsible for maintaining the Integrated Bee Health Programme in England and Wales since the early 1990s. The role of the Bee Health Programme is to protect the honey bee, a major pollinator of agricultural and horticultural crops and wild flora, and to provide up-to-date technical support to beekeepers. The Bee Health Programme is funded in England by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and in Wales by the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG). The work includes inspection of honey bee colonies, disease and pest diagnosis, development of contingency plans for emerging threats, minimising the risk of introduction of potentially serious exotic pests and diseases through importation by import risk analysis and related extension work and consultancy services to both government and industry. There is also an underpinning programme of research and development.