Implicit Prediction Research Articles

Evaluacija biološke zrelosti u sportu

The aim of the paper is to present various methods for the evaluation of biological maturity which can define the differences between chronological age and biological maturity in young athletes. Biological maturation is a nonlinear process, taking place at all organic levels, differing from the flow of time after birth. From this point of view, there is a need to determine the differences in the rate of biological maturation within the chronological period. Defining the biological maturity of athletes has a multidimensional significance, the evaluation of youth's maturity in comparison with the chronological age has an implicit value, the selection and prediction of sports achievement at the individual level is crucial for the planning and programming of the training process. Maturity evaluation feedback has a function in preventing and restraining injuries of athletes who are behind their peers. Athletes who are advanced in comparison to their chronological generation, in younger selections, reach a plateau of sports performance early, which can negatively affect success in the senior period. The paper presents the basic methods of evaluation of biological matrices used in the diagnosis of young athletes. Biological maturity can be determined by means of radiography, anthropometric measurements, and sex-based indicators.

Does Workplace Competition Increase Labor Supply? Evidence from a Field Experiment

This paper develops a novel field experiment to test the implicit prediction of tournament theory that competition increases work time and can therefore contribute to the long work hours required in elite occupations. A majority of workers in the treatment without explicit financial incentives worked past the minimum time, but awarding a tournament prize increased work time and effort by over 80% and lowered costs of effort or output by over a third. Effort was similar with alternative (piece rate, low-prize tournament) bonuses. Men worked longer than women in the high-prize tournament, but for the same duration in other treatments.

Does Workplace Competition Increase Labor Supply? Evidence from a Field Experiment

This paper develops a novel field experiment to test the implicit prediction of tournament theory that competition increases work time and can therefore contribute to the long work hours required in elite occupations. A majority of workers in the treatment without explicit financial incentives worked past the minimum time, but awarding a tournament prize increased work time and effort by over 80% and lowered costs of effort or output by over a third. Effort was similar with alternative (piece rate, low-prize tournament) bonuses. Men worked longer than women in the high-prize tournament, but for the same duration in other treatments.

Improved fully implicit discrete-velocity method for efficient simulation of flows in all flow regimes

In this work, an improved fully implicit discrete-velocity method (DVM) is developed for flows over all Knudsen numbers. The improvements aim to overcome the drawbacks of the conventional semi-implicit DVM which performs with low accuracy and efficiency in the continuum flow regime. These defects originate from the explicit discretization of the equilibrium state in the collision term at the cell center and the ignorance of the particle collision effect in the calculation of numerical flux on the cell interface. To alleviate these drawbacks, the present method innovatively incorporates an implicit prediction step into the conventional model. In this step, the macroscopic governing equation is resolved to estimate the equilibrium state, and the local solution of the Boltzmann equation with the collision term is adopted to physically reconstruct the macroscopic numerical flux. Two major merits are brought by this strategy. On one hand, by using the predicted equilibrium state, the collision term in the discrete velocity Boltzmann equation can be discretized implicitly, which significantly improves the computational efficiency. On the other hand, the consideration of the collision effect in the physical reconstruction of the numerical flux on the cell interface benefits the solution accuracy, especially in the continuum flow regime. Meanwhile, the developed scheme well keeps the inherent simplicity of the conventional semi-implicit DVM by maintaining the basic resolving process of distribution functions. Numerical results show that in the rarefied flow regime, the improved scheme gives a similar solution as the conventional semi-implicit DVM with little extra computational efforts, while in the continuum flow regime, the present scheme shows higher efficiency and accuracy.

A Homeostatic Model of Subjective Cognitive Decline

Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD) is possibly one of the earliest detectable signs of dementia, but we do not know which mental processes lead to elevated concern. In this narrative review, we will summarize the previous literature on the biomarkers and functional neuroanatomy of SCD. In order to extend upon the prevailing theory of SCD, compensatory hyperactivation, we will introduce a new model: the breakdown of homeostasis in the prediction error minimization system. A cognitive prediction error is a discrepancy between an implicit cognitive prediction and the corresponding outcome. Experiencing frequent prediction errors may be a primary source of elevated subjective concern. Our homeostasis breakdown model provides an explanation for the progression from both normal cognition to SCD and from SCD to advanced dementia stages.

Morphological Data Sets Fit a Common Mechanism Much More Poorly than DNA Sequences and Call Into Question the Mkv Model.

The Mkv evolutionary model, based on minor modifications to models of molecular evolution, is being increasingly used to infer phylogenies from discrete morphological data, often producing different results from parsimony. The critical difference between Mkv and parsimony is the assumption of a "common mechanism" in the Mkv model, with branch lengths determining that probability of change for all characters increases or decreases at the same tree branches by the same exponential factor. We evaluate whether the assumption of a common mechanism applies to morphology, by testing the implicit prediction that branch lengths calculated from different subsets of characters will be significantly correlated. Our analysis shows that DNA (38 data sets tested) is often compatible with a common mechanism, but morphology (86 data sets tested) generally is not, showing very disparate branch lengths for different character partitions. The low levels of branch length correlation demonstrated for morphology (fitting models without a common mechanism) suggest that the Mkv model is too unrealistic and inadequate for the analysis of most morphological data sets. [Bayesian analysis; Mkv model; morphological data; phylogenetics.].

A consistent SIMPLE algorithm with extra explicit prediction — SIMPLEPC

Some improvements for SIMPLE algorithm have been proposed in the present paper. After the discretized momentum equations are solved implicitly, an extra explicit prediction for velocity will be adopted to eliminate iterative errors introduced in previous implicit prediction step. As for consistent approximation, the velocity-correction formula is amended so that the corrected velocity and corrected pressure are better to satisfy the momentum equations without relaxation and the continuity equation. Moreover, the velocity relaxation factor α is also introduced to velocity-correction formula for obtaining the appropriate velocity correction. In the SIMPLEPC algorithm, letters “P” and “C” appended to SIMPLE represent extra prediction and consistent approximation, respectively. The numerical experiments show that SIMPLEPC can always converge with less time and similar robustness compared to the SIMPLEC algorithm. When the time step multiplier (E) is less than 4 (the corresponding velocity relaxation factor α is less than 0.8), the time consumption ratio (TCR) is approximately less than 0.8. The performance of SIMPLEPC is better than SIMPLEC especially with low time step multiplier.

CONSTITUTIONAL DETERMINATION OF THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM AND THE COUNTRIES OF FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

The author analyses the constitutional determination of the electoral system, its different manifestations and consequences, hence questions if they should find their place within material constitutions. Comparative constitutional examples show both theoretical and practical flaws of such determination, as both explicit and implicit prediction has more drawbacks than advantages. After explanation and differentiation of related key concepts with comparative examples, the author focuses on former Yugoslav countries that display a variety of possible solutions. Inter alia, he finds that the Serbian constitution implicitly determines the proportional electoral system and advocates future revision of the norms in question, since the present solution can be considered as the least favourable.

On the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion: Empirical evidence and theoretical explanations

After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agent-based financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to predict asset prices. Since destabilizing technical trading dominates the market near the fundamental value, asset prices tend to be either overvalued or undervalued. Interestingly, the bimodality of the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion confirms an implicit prediction of a number of seminal agent-based financial market models.

Efficient temporal and interlayer parameter prediction for weighted prediction in scalable high efficiency video coding

Weighted prediction (WP) is an efficient video coding tool that was introduced since the establishment of the H.264/AVC video coding standard, for compensating the temporal illumination change in motion estimation and compensation. WP parameters, including a multiplicative weight and an additive offset for each reference frame, are required to be estimated and transmitted to the decoder by slice header. These parameters cause extra bits in the coded video bitstream. High efficiency video coding (HEVC) provides WP parameter prediction to reduce the overhead. Therefore, WP parameter prediction is crucial to research works or applications, which are related to WP. Prior art has been suggested to further improve the WP parameter prediction by implicit prediction of image characteristics and derivation of parameters. By exploiting both temporal and interlayer redundancies, we propose three WP parameter prediction algorithms, enhanced implicit WP parameter, enhanced direct WP parameter derivation, and interlayer WP parameter, to further improve the coding efficiency of HEVC. Results show that our proposed algorithms can achieve up to 5.83% and 5.23% bitrate reduction compared to the conventional scalable HEVC in the base layer for SNR scalability and 2× spatial scalability, respectively.

Multi-user utility pattern based cloud service negotiation for quality of service improvement: an implicit interest prediction approach

Multi-user utility pattern based cloud service negotiation for quality of service improvement: an implicit interest prediction approach

Multi-user utility pattern based cloud service negotiation for quality of service improvement: an implicit interest prediction approach

The growing deployment of cloud services increases the responsibility of cloud service provider in meeting consumer satisfaction in great measure. As the interest of the user changes in time and the number of service providers are growing the cloud user has more options in choosing the required service. But the problem of service negotiation must be handled by all the service providers in order to improve the quality of service. To solve the issue of service negotiation, a multi-user utility pattern based service negotiation approach is discussed in this paper. The method monitors the service negotiation values and keeps track of services accessed by different cloud user. It also maintains a trace of sequence of service access based on user's interest. The proposed technique uses the implicit tracking approach to predict the interest of the user by monitoring the service access without the knowledge of the end user and generate a pattern called utility pattern. Based on the generated pattern, the most impacting services are ranked according to the implicit activities of different users. The ranked services are given to the user to select a single service to fulfil the request. The proposed technique improves the performance of cloud environment to 95% and increases the satisfaction of the cloud user.

Modeling the N400 ERP component as transient semantic over-activation within a neural network model of word comprehension

The study of the N400 event-related brain potential has provided fundamental insights into the nature of real-time comprehension processes, and its amplitude is modulated by a wide variety of stimulus and context factors. It is generally thought to reflect the difficulty of semantic access, but formulating a precise characterization of this process has proved difficult. Laszlo and colleagues (Laszlo & Plaut, 2012; Laszlo & Armstrong, 2014) used physiologically constrained neural networks to model the N400 as transient over-activation within semantic representations, arising as a consequence of the distribution of excitation and inhibition within and between cortical areas. The current work extends this approach to successfully model effects on both N400 amplitudes and behavior of word frequency, semantic richness, repetition, semantic and associative priming, and orthographic neighborhood size. The account is argued to be preferable to one based on “implicit semantic prediction error” (Rabovsky & McRae, 2014) for a number of reasons, the most fundamental of which is that the current model actually produces N400-like waveforms in its real-time activation dynamics.

Predicción de la producción y rendimiento de Pinus rudis Endl. en Aloapan, Oaxaca

Se muestra la estrategia metodológica para el desarrollo de un sistema de ecuaciones para predecir el rendimiento y producción de Pinus rudis Endl. Los datos para la construcción del modelo fueron obtenidos de dos mediciones en sitios permanentes de muestreo ubicados en Aloapan, Oaxaca. El modelo de predicción es un modelo de rodales completos con proyección de estructuras diamétricas a través de la distribución Weibull. La predicción de atributos del rodal se realiza en forma explícita e implícita. La primera se basa en modificaciones a los modelos compatibles de área basal y volumen; la segunda en la recuperación de distribuciones diamétricas predichas a partir del método de predicción de parámetros. Todos los modelos, incluso los de predicción de parámetros de la distribución Weibull, mostraron una bondad de ajuste excelente.

Perceptual Stability of the Lissajous Figure Is Modulated by the Speed of Illusory Rotation.

Lissajous figures represent ambiguous structure-from-motion stimuli rotating in depth and have proven to be a versatile tool to explore the cognitive and neural mechanisms underlying bistable perception. They are generated by the intersection of two sinusoids with perpendicular axes and increasing phase-shift whose frequency determines the speed of illusory 3D rotation. Recently, we found that Lissajous figures of higher shifting frequencies elicited longer perceptual phase durations and tentatively proposed a “representational momentum” account. In this study, our aim was twofold. First, we aimed to gather more behavioral evidence related to the perceptual dynamics of the Lissajous figure by simultaneously varying its shifting frequency and size. Using a conventional analysis, we investigated the effects of our experimental manipulations on transition probability (i.e., the probability that the current percept will change at the next critical stimulus configuration). Second, we sought to test the impact of our experimental factors on the occurrence of transitions in bistable perception by means of a Bayesian approach that can be used to directly quantify the impact of contextual cues on perceptual stability. We thereby estimated the implicit prediction of perceptual stability and how it is modulated by experimental manipulations.

Particle-laden flow down a slope in uniform stratification

AbstractLock–release laboratory experiments are performed to examine saline and particle-laden flows down a slope into both constant-density and linearly stratified ambients. Both hypopycnal (surface-propagating) currents and hyperpycnal (turbidity) currents are examined, with the focus being upon the influence of ambient stratification on turbidity currents. Measurements are made of the along-slope front speed and the depth at which the turbidity current separates from the slope and intrudes into the ambient. These results are compared to the predictions of a theory that characterizes the flow evolution and separation depth in terms of the slope $\def \xmlpi #1{}\def \mathsfbi #1{\boldsymbol {\mathsf {#1}}}\let \le =\leqslant \let \leq =\leqslant \let \ge =\geqslant \let \geq =\geqslant \def \Pr {\mathit {Pr}}\def \Fr {\mathit {Fr}}\def \Rey {\mathit {Re}}s$, the entrainment parameter $E$ (the ratio of entrainment to flow speed), the relative stratification parameter $S$ (the ratio of the ambient density difference to the relative current density) and a new parameter $\gamma $ defined to be the ratio of the particle settling to entrainment speed. The implicit prediction for the separation depth, $H_s$, is made explicit by considering limits of small and large separation depth. In the former case of a ‘weak’ turbidity current, entrainment and particle settling are unimportant and separation occurs where the density of the ambient fluid equals the density of the fluid in the lock. In the latter case of a ‘strong’ turbidity current, entrainment and particle settling crucially affect the separation depth. Consistent with theory, we find that the separation depth indeed depends on $\gamma $ if the particle size (and hence settling rate) is sufficiently large and if the current propagates many lock lengths before separating from the slope. A composite prediction that combines the explicit formulae for the separation depth for weak and strong turbidity currents agrees well with experimental measurements over a wide parameter range.

Characterising the diameter distribution of Sal plantations by comparing normal, lognormal and Weibull distributions at Tilagarh Eco-park, Bangladesh

For many years foresters have been using statistical probability density functions to describe and characterise stand structure. Predicting the current and future yields of a stand is essential for successful stand and timber management. Implicit prediction of current yield is accomplished by using diameter distribution methods. All diameter distribution yield systems predict the number of trees per unit area by diameter class. In this study, the normal, lognormal and the three-parameter Weibull probability density function were compared to characterise the diameter distributions of Sal (Shorea robusta) plantations grown at Tilagarh Eco-park, Bangladesh. Data from 70 plots, established in three plantations, were used for this study. The Weibull parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood and moments estimator methods. A one-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test was used for the goodness of fit for all models. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test results showed that both lognormal and Weibull distributions were suitable to characterise the diameter distributions of Sal plantations in the study area and may be applicable for other Sal forests in Bangladesh.

The feedback related negativity encodes both social rejection and explicit social expectancy violation.

Humans consistently make predictions about the valence of future events and use feedback to validate initial predictions. While the valence of outcomes provides utilitarian information, the accuracy of predictions is crucial for future performance adjustment. The feedback related negativity (FRN), identified as a marker of reward prediction error, possibly encodes social rejection and social prediction error. To test this possibility, we used event related potential (ERP) techniques combined with social tasks in which participants were required to make explicit predictions (whether others will accept their “friend request” or not, Experiment 1) or implicit predictions (whether they would like this person or not, Experiment 2) respectively, and then received social feedback. We found that the FRN is sensitive to social rejection and explicit social prediction error in Experiment 1 but not implicit social prediction error in Experiment 2. We conclude that the FRN encodes social rejection and explicit social expectancy violation.

Simulating the N400 ERP component as semantic network error: Insights from a feature-based connectionist attractor model of word meaning

The N400 ERP component is widely used in research on language and semantic memory. Although the component’s relation to semantic processing is well-established, the computational mechanisms underlying N400 generation are currently unclear (Kutas & Federmeier, 2011). We explored the mechanisms underlying the N400 by examining how a connectionist model’s performance measures covary with N400 amplitudes. We simulated seven N400 effects obtained in human empirical research. Network error was consistently in the same direction as N400 amplitudes, namely larger for low frequency words, larger for words with many features, larger for words with many orthographic neighbors, and smaller for semantically related target words as well as repeated words. Furthermore, the repetition-induced decrease was stronger for low frequency words, and for words with many semantic features. In contrast, semantic activation corresponded less well with the N400. Our results suggest an interesting relation between N400 amplitudes and semantic network error. In psychological terms, error values in connectionist models have been conceptualized as implicit prediction error, and we interpret our results as support for the idea that N400 amplitudes reflect implicit prediction error in semantic memory (McClelland, 1994).

Implicit Attitudes Reflect Associative, Non‐associative, and Non‐attitudinal Processes

AbstractIt is a common assumption that responses on implicit measures are proxies for automatically activated associations stored in memory. Consequently, explanations for implicit attitude malleability, variability, and prediction have assumed differences in underlying associations. However, a growing body of evidence challenges the assumption that implicit attitude change is driven only by associative processes. This paper reviews evidence from research with the Quadruple Process model on the influence of associative and non‐associative processes on implicit task performance. We also describe recent research on non‐attitudinal processes that do not pertain directly to the attitude object of interest but that, nevertheless, influence implicit task performance. Implications for the interpretation of implicit measures and implicit attitude change are discussed.