Implications For Land Use Research Articles

Why climate migration is not managed retreat: Six justifications

This perspective piece makes a case for a more rigorous treatment of managed retreat as a politically, legally, and economically distinct type of relocation that is separate from climate migration. We argue that the use of both concepts interchangeably obfuscates the problems around climate-induced mobilities and contributes to the inconsistencies in policy, plans, and actions taken by governments and organizations tasked with addressing them. This call for a disentanglement is not solely an academic exercise aimed at conceptual clarity, but an effort targeted at incentivizing researchers, practitioners, journalists, and advocates working on both issues to better serve their constituencies through alliance formation, resource mobilization, and the establishment of institutional pathways to climate justice. We offer a critical understanding of the distinctions between climate migration and managed retreat grounded in six orienting propositions. They include differential: causal mechanisms, legal protections, rights regimes and funding structures, discursive effects, implications for land use, and exposure to risks. We provide empirical examples from existing literature to contextualize our propositions while calling for a transformative justice approach to addressing both issues.

Improving the economic and environmental performance of a New Zealand hill country farm catchment: 4. Greenhouse gas and carbon stock implications of land management change

ABSTRACT An integrated catchment management project was established at the Whatawhata Research Centre in the late 1990s to study the implications of land use and management change for a typical New Zealand hill country pastoral farm system. The main changes implemented on the 296 ha Mangaotama block in 2001–2002 included production forest plantation (147 ha), indigenous riparian planting (8 ha); intensification of livestock enterprises and spaced-tree planting. The purpose of this study was to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance for the catchment farm, incorporating recent measurement and modelling over a 100-year period (excl. soil carbon). The changes reduced the GHG intensity of the livestock enterprises from 25 to 15 kg CO2-e kg−1 product and turned the system from a net emission source (c. 1 kt CO2-e y−1) into a long-term net sink (−353 kt CO2-e y−1). This was mainly due to planting of Pinus radiata with high carbon assimilation rates, compared to the smaller areas and slower assimilation rates of indigenous trees (currently 5–17 t CO2-e ha−1y−1). Based on 100-year mean tree carbon stocks, it was estimated that the area of pine forestry required to achieve net zero emissions would be in the order of 36% of the catchment farm.

Flood risk assessment using the CV-TOPSIS method for the Belt and Road Initiative: an empirical study of Southeast Asia

ABSTRACT Instruction The countries along the Belt and Road Initiative remain high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes. Southeast Asia, a significant part of the Belt and Road Initiative, suffers a lot from flood disasters. This study assessed the flood disaster risk from 1990–2015 in all 11 Southeast Asian countries. A model integrating the coefficient of variation approach and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method was introduced to analyze the flood disaster data. Considering that populations living in areas where elevation is below 5 m and land area where elevation is below 5 m have reached 11.86% and 3.54% (2015), respectively, the two indicators were opted for to propose new metrics for flood disaster risk assessment.Outcomes: Our findings show that the flood disaster risk in Southeast Asia appeared very high during most of the study period. Indonesia had an extremely high flood disaster risk, followed by Vietnam, whereas Laos, Malaysia, Brunei, and Timor Leste had lower flood risks. The model introduced in this paper is quite simple and easy to understand, providing accessible flood risk information for decision makers.Conclusion: The results we obtained have practical implications for land use and investment activities in Southeast Asia.

Transit oriented development and retail: Is variation in success explained by a gap between theory and practice?

Central to the concept of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is a retail core situated around stations. However, successful retail near light rail transit stations has been elusive. Despite significant implications for land use, transportation, and economic development planning, little research exists to explain the gap between TOD concept and reality. We hypothesize that the density, diversity, and design characteristics central to the theory of TODs drive retail success. We implement a TOD Index proposed in the literature to score 474 light rail station areas in 11 metropolitan areas according to the presence and magnitude of those density, diversity, and design characteristics. A series of robustly-developed multilevel models support our hypothesis: TOD Index scores significantly predict station area retail employment, ceteris paribus. An evaluation of its subcomponents individually (block size, which relates to walkability; land use mix; and activity density) suggests activity density may be the driving force in this relationship. Our research works to move the conversation away from an assumption that transit stations and retail naturally co-exist and toward more intentional station area design choices demonstrated to drive retail employment.

Too small to count? Making Land Use Transformations in Chiquitano communities of San Ignacio de Velasco, East Bolivia, visible

ABSTRACT The Santa Cruz lowlands, east Bolivia, are one of South America’s most dynamic agricultural frontiers. In the Chiquitania, bordering Brazil, San Ignacio de Velasco was in 2017 ranked first nationally in terms of deforestation. There, two deforestation fronts meet with mechanized agriculture expanding from the West and South and cattle ranching from the East. Chiquitano communities are demographically dominant locally but often face land scarcity. Because of their comparatively low impact on forest vegetation, they are not well represented in broad-scale quantitative Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) studies. Based on an empirical, human geographical approach, this paper investigates the transformation of the local indigenous productive matrix, the associated land-use patterns and potential socio-ecological implications. The overall aim is to bear witness to the rapid and profound reconfiguration of traditional livelihoods with their integration in the market economy and to highlight the significance of micro-scale LULC-processes at global scale.

Changes in food access by mestizo communities associated with deforestation and agrobiodiversity loss in Ucayali, Peruvian Amazon

Few longitudinal studies link agricultural biodiversity, land use and food access in rural landscapes. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that, in a context of economic change, cash crop expansion is associated with deforestation, reduced agrobiodiversity and changes in food access. For this purpose, we analysed data collected from the same 53 upland and floodplain mestizo households in Ucayali, Peru, in 2000 and 2015. We found an emerging transition towards less diversified food access coupled with loss of forest cover and reduced agricultural biodiversity. In 2015, diets appeared to rely on fewer food groups, fewer food items, and on products increasingly purchased in the market compared to 2000. Wild fruits and plants were mentioned, but rarely consumed. Agricultural production systems became more specialised with a shift towards commercial crops. Peak deforestation years in the 15-year period appeared linked with incentives for agricultural expansion. Our results suggest an overall trend from diversified productive and “extractive” systems and more diverse food access, towards specialized productive systems, with less diverse food access and stronger market orientation (both in production and consumption). The assumption in the food and agricultural sciences that increased income and market-orientation is linked to improved food security, is challenged by our integrated analyses of food access, agrobiodiversity, land use and forest cover. Our results highlight the importance of longitudinal, multidimensional, systemic analyses, with major implications for land use, food and health policies. The potential risks of parallel homogenisation of diets and agricultural production systems require interdisciplinary research and policies that promote integrated landscape approaches for sustainable and inclusive food systems.

Examining the Relationship between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Linkage Using Coupling Analysis: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Urban land expansion (ULE) has caused negative effects as a result of urbanization and industrialization in China in the past few decades. Strengthening economic linkage and the cooperation among regions has great implications for effectively controlling disorderly ULE and achieving sustainable and intensive land use. Previous research has rarely investigated the relationship between ULE and economic linkage. Therefore, this study analyzes the spatial patterns of ULE and economic linkage in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) of China via social network analysis and a gravity model. Moreover, the spatial relationship and coupling level between ULE and economic linkage are investigated by building a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and a coupling coordination degree model, respectively. The results indicate that the YREB experienced rapid ULE, and the area increased from 4.24 × 104 km2 in 1990 to 7.89 × 104 km2 in 2015. The cities that experience rapid ULE have gradually transferred from the east to the west of the YREB. In addition, the economic linkage in eastern cities is evidently higher than that of western cities. Our bivariate spatial model further proves that there are strong negative spatial correlation characteristics between ULE and economic linkage. This indicates that the higher the economic linkage, the lower the speed of ULE. Moreover, the coupling coordination between ULE and economic linkage show that the overall coupling stage changed from an antagonistic stage to a running-in stage. However, the coupling coordination in the YREB presented significant spatial heterogeneity, and most cities in urban agglomeration had a relationship between ULE and economic linkage that was barely balanced, slightly unbalanced, or seriously unbalanced. By considering the limitations and obstacles of current initiatives, suggestions and policy implications for sustainable land use at large regional scales are suggested.

A mechanistic erosion model for cosmogenic nuclide inheritance in single-clast exposure ages

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCNs), produced by the bombardment of Earth's surface by cosmic rays, are widely used for age-dating and pacing surface processes. Sediments carry an inherited TCN concentration, useful for quantifying erosion and transport rates, but that must be subtracted when age-dating sedimentary landforms, such as alluvial fans. Here we present a mechanistic model of inheritance based on the contributions of episodic erosion by landsliding and steady, background erosion due to soil formation. The balance of these processes, revealed by the distribution of inheritance recorded by a population of individual surface clasts, affects rates of soil generation and the cycling of material through the Earth's critical zone – the surficial layer upon which all terrestrial life depends. We test our inheritance model on alluvial fan TCN datasets drawn from a global compilation of active-fault slip-rate studies. Inheritance-corrected landform ages are systematically younger than published ages. Our results reveal a consistent signature of spatiotemporal clustering of landslides, important for quantifying hazard and for understanding the coupling of physical and chemical erosion. Application of our inheritance model provides a rigorous approach to correcting landform ages for inheritance and reveals information on landslide frequency, with broad implications for hazard and land use.

The Environmental Implications of Land Use and Land Cover Changes around a Mined Area at Madayipara in Kannur District, Kerala State, India

The Environmental Implications of Land Use and Land Cover Changes around a Mined Area at Madayipara in Kannur District, Kerala State, India

English

This study has investigated the implications of land use planning on the provision and management of public sanitation facilities in the Wa Municipality, using three zones (Zone 1-Jangbeyiri and Suriyiri; Zone 2-Kpaguri; Zone 3-Mangu) of different land use and socioeconomic characteristics. A mixed method approach was utilized. Field surveys including 374 respondents, key informant interviews, and spatial planning methods were employed to gather the primary data. The results revealed that local plans and building regulations were not available at the time the indigenous settlements (Zone 1) were developed, resulting in haphazard development in the area. The high-income residential area (Zone 2) had household toilet facilities and access to door-to-door waste collection services due to the adherence to building regulations and good access routes. Zones 1 and 3 had sanitary spaces with public sanitary facilities (communal containers and public toilets) provided by either the Wa Municipal Assembly or Zoomlion Ghana Ltd. However, the sanitary facilities in the two areas were found to be inadequate and not well spaced. Access to public sanitation facilities is very difficult for service providers as well as the beneficiaries of the services. The Wa Municipal Assembly should inform the public through radio programs and community fora on the need and procedures of obtaining building permits before developing their lands. The Municipality should also create and adopt urban renewal strategies to provide sanitary services for unplanned areas like Jangbeyiri and Suuriyiri. Key words: Land use, sanitation, sustainability, urban planning, waste management.

The coupling characteristics of population and residential land in rural areas of China and its implications for sustainable land use

AbstractUnderstanding the changes and coupling characteristics between rural population (RP) and rural residential land (RRL) provides a theoretical basis for sustainable rural land use. Based on the index of human–land coupling development, this study analyzed the spatial–temporal characteristics and coupling types of RRL and RP on the levels of China's national and prefectural cities by using the data of official land use survey and demographic statistics from 2009 to 2016. Results showed that (a) China's RP is declining at an average annual rate of 2.07%, and the RP in most cities decrease from −3.33% to −1.20%. (b) The area of RRL in China constantly increased at an average annual rate of 0.56% and that of most cities has also maintained growth, with only 11.76% of cities that declined. (c) The per capita RRL in China increased from 267.96 m2 in 2009 to 325.58 m2 in 2016. The relationship between the RRL and RP in China was uncoordinated with a coupling type of G (rapid decline in RP and increase in RRL). The coupling types of most cities were also the uncoordinated type of G, and only less than 10% of cities had a coordinated type (Types B, C, D, and E). The results indicated that the coupling relationship between RP and RRL in China is decoupled and has obvious spatial heterogeneity, which could provide scientific support for optimizing land resources and coordinating human–land relationship in China's rural areas.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and cropland in the Nile Delta of Egypt using machine learning and satellite big data: implications for sustainable development.

The Nile Delta of Egypt is increasingly facing sustainability threats, due to a combination of nature- and human-induced changes in land cover and land use. In this paper, an analysis of big time series data from remotely sensed satellite images and the random forests classifier was undertaken to assess the spatial and temporal dynamics of urbanization and cropland in the Nile Delta between 2007 and 2017. Out of thirteen variables, five spectral indices were chosen to build 500 decision trees, with a resulting overall accuracy average of 91.9 ± 1.5%. The results revealed that the urban extent in the Nile Delta has increased, between 2007 and 2017, by 592.4 km2 (1.92%). Particularly, the results indicated that the years 2011 and 2012, which coincided the 2011 political uprising in Egypt, so-called the Arab Spring, were associated with significant land-use changes in the Nile Delta, both in rate and scale. As a result, the cropland area in the region decreased between 2010 and 2011 by 1.63% (502.21 km2). Moreover, the results showed that during the period 2012-2017, the mean annual urbanization rate in the region stood at 60 km2/year. In contrast, croplands decreased during the same period at an average annual rate of 2 km2/year. At the governorates' level, the results suggested that top agricultural producing governorates in the Nile Delta, such as Elmonoufia, Elkalubia, Elbouhyra, and Elghrbia, witnessed the highest rates of decrease in cropland areas during the period 2012-2017. Over the same period, urban areas increased the most in Elkalubia, Domiate, and Elmonoufia by 1.98%, 1.72%, and 1.34%, respectively. The f indings from this analysis are discussed along with their implications for sustainable land-use and urban planning policies.

Scissors Difference of Socioeconomics, Travel and Space Consumption Behavior of Rural and Urban Households and Its Impact on Modeling Accuracy and Data Requirements

It is believed that the “scissors difference” of socioeconomics between rural and urban households in typical municipalities of China is significant. This may result in differences in their behavior and has important implications for urban land use and transportation planning policies, as well as related modeling accuracy and data requirements. However, detailed analyses regarding such “scissors differences” between rural and urban groups in China have not been done before. In this study, travel survey data collected from the City of Wuhan in 2008 is used to study if rural and urban households are statistically different in terms of household income, household size, space consumption, highest household mobility and travel distance. A set of statistical tests, such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Mann–Whitney U test and Kruskal–Wallis H test, are applied to the study data. The study results show that the “scissors difference” is found to be statistically significant in terms of household size (HS), household income (HI), building area (BA) consumed and household mobility (except for travel distance) between rural and urban households. Conversely, analyses applied to travel distance of urban and rural household subgroups (categorized by HS and HI) reveal that the urban and rural counterparts show almost exactly opposite behavior. The study results also suggest that such differences should be explicitly considered in relevant modeling exercises by separately setting up urban and rural household groups, but the number of household groups used should be determined based on a balance between modeling accuracy and data required/modeling workload.

Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their land-use implications

Ethanol biofuel demand in Brazil is highly dependent on macroeconomic and policy drivers, making it difficult to anticipate future production and associated environmental implications. Here we develop scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil towards 2030, based on a thorough examination of key influencing drivers, i.e. GDP and population growth, fleet composition, blending policies, fuel prices and energy efficiency. We then estimate their land-use implications using a detailed partial equilibrium model, GLOBIOM-Brazil. We find that ethanol demand is highly sensitive to the drivers considered and could increase between 37.4 and 70.7 billion litres in 2030 depending on the scenario. Such increase is 13% and 114% above the 2018 production. This represents an expansion in sugarcane area between 1.2 and 5 million hectares (14%–58% above the land-use in 2018). Compared to the low demand scenario, a high demand for ethanol in 2030 would drive sugarcane expansion mostly into pastureland (72%) and natural vegetation mosaics (19%). Our results suggest that future ethanol demand in Brazil should not substantially affect food production nor native forest. This outcome will however depend on the compliance with the sugarcane agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) by the ethanol sector in Brazil, a key assumption of our projections.

Mining towns and urban sprawl in South Africa

South Africa’s mining towns were established by mining companies mostly after World War II. The workforce lived in company-owned or privately-owned houses, or high-density compounds. Since the demise of apartheid, South African government policy for these towns has promoted integrated mining communities and homeownership. The government’s urban policy aims to densify the country’s urban areas, which have some of the lowest urban densities. This paper compares the changes in urban density and the unintended land-use implications of mining in settlements around five types of mines: iron ore, manganese, coal, gold and platinum, and in a combination of towns during periods of mining boom and bust. We ask how the South African legal framework addresses land issues that are associated with mining settlements, how urban density has evolved in the five case studies; and how this evolution should be explained. We argue that the sprawl is associated with historical path dependencies and interdependencies. Contributing factors are the need to house miners, the unintended consequences of policies designed to minimise compound living, changing labour regimes, the continuation of migrant labour and the presence of traditional-authority land. This sprawl is evident in market-driven housing, government-subsidised housing and informal settlement development.

If They Come, Where will We Build It? Land-Use Implications of Two Forest Conservation Policies in the Deep Creek Watershed

Research Highlights: Forest conservation policies can drive land-use change to other land-use types. In multifunctional landscapes, forest conservation policies will therefore impact on other functions delivered by the landscape. Finding the best pattern of land use requires considering these interactions. Background and Objectives: Population growth continues to drive the development of land for urban purposes. Consequently, there is a loss of other land uses, such as agriculture and forested lands. Efforts to conserve one type of land use will drive more change onto other land uses. Absent effective collaboration among affected communities and relevant institutional agents, unexpected and undesirable land-use change may occur. Materials and Methods: A CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Scales) model was developed for the Deep Creek watershed, a small sub-basin in the Okanagan Valley of British Columbia, Canada. The valley is experiencing among the most rapid population growth of any region in Canada. Land uses were aggregated into one forested land-use type, one urban land-use type, and three agricultural types. Land-use change was simulated for combinations of two forest conservation policies. Changes are categorized by location, land type, and an existing agricultural land policy. Results: Forest conservation policies drive land conversion onto agricultural land and may increase the loss of low elevation forested land. Model results show where the greatest pressure for removing land from agriculture is likely to occur for each scenario. As an important corridor for species movement, the loss of low elevation forest land may have serious impacts on habitat connectivity. Conclusions: Forest conservation policies that do not account for feedbacks can have unintended consequences, such as increasing conversion pressures on other valued land uses. To avoid surprises, land-use planners and policy makers need to consider these interactions. Models such as CLUE-S can help identify these spatial impacts.

Ecohydrological modelling with EcH2O‐iso to quantify forest and grassland effects on water partitioning and flux ages

AbstractWe used the new process‐based, tracer‐aided ecohydrological model EcH2O‐iso to assess the effects of vegetation cover on water balance partitioning and associated flux ages under temperate deciduous beech forest (F) and grassland (G) at an intensively monitored site in Northern Germany. Unique, multicriteria calibration, based on measured components of energy balance, hydrological function and biomass accumulation, resulted in good simulations reproducing measured soil surface temperatures, soil water content, transpiration, and biomass production. Model results showed the forest “used” more water than the grassland; of 620 mm average annual precipitation, losses were higher through interception (29% under F, 16% for G) and combined soil evaporation and transpiration (59% F, 47% G). Consequently, groundwater (GW) recharge was enhanced under grassland at 37% (~225 mm) of precipitation compared with 12% (~73 mm) for forest. The model tracked the ages of water in different storage compartments and associated fluxes. In shallow soil horizons, the average ages of soil water fluxes and evaporation were similar in both plots (~1.5 months), though transpiration and GW recharge were older under forest (~6 months compared with ~3 months for transpiration, and ~12 months compared with ~10 months for GW). Flux tracking using measured chloride data as a conservative tracer provided independent support for the modelling results, though highlighted effects of uncertainties in forest partitioning of evaporation and transpiration. By tracking storage—flux—age interactions under different land covers, EcH2O‐iso could quantify the effects of vegetation on water partitioning and age distributions. Given the likelihood of drier, warmer summers, such models can help assess the implications of land use for water resource availability to inform debates over building landscape resilience to climate change. Better conceptualization of soil water mixing processes and improved calibration data on leaf area index and root distribution appear obvious respective modelling and data needs for improved simulations.

Streetcars and Real Estate Rents with Implications for Transit and Land Use Planning

Modern streetcars seemed to have emerged as the darling of America’s downtown revival. Planners, however, have little experience with market responses to modern streetcars to help guide future efforts, or improve or expand current ones. This paper is the first to report the association between real estate rents and proximity to streetcar stations based on all streetcar systems launched in the U.S.A. since 1990. Using multiple functional forms, the paper shows that real estate rents for office, retail, and multifamily properties increase with proximity to streetcar stations. The analysis further tests outcomes using five functional forms: linear, semi-log, double-log, quadratic and fine-grained distance band (using one-eighth mile increments). It appears that the distance band functional form specification may be the most useful for transit and land use planning purposes. Results suggest that streetcar planning and associated land use planning should anticipate heightened demand for multifamily residential development near streetcar stations, perhaps displacing office development to about half a mile away. Retail activities may benefit from additional level of competition for location near streetcar stations by both residential and office development. Indeed, analysis finds that whereas multifamily residential rent premiums with respect to streetcar station proximity extend a mile outward, office rent premiums are lower closer to stations but rise rapidly about a half mile away, presumably outbidding multifamily residential development. Retail activities take advantage of this competition roughly to the area between the office and multifamily rent premium thresholds. Implications for fixed guideway transit and land use planning practice are offered.

Ten-year legacy of organic carbon in non-agricultural (brownfield) soils restored using green waste compost exceeds 4 per mille per annum: Benefits and trade-offs of a circular economy approach

Soil organic carbon (SOC) was re-analysed 10 years after application of source-segregated green waste compost at a 1 ha previously-developed UK site to compare with the increases suggested by the 4 per mille initiative proposed at COP21 in Paris. Compost prepared to PAS100 standard had been incorporated once at rates of 250, 500 and 750 t·ha−1 in 2007 in clay subsoil prior to planting of perennial energy crops. Our results show statistically significant differential increases in SOC, total nutrients N and P, or contaminants Zn, Pb, Cu, As and B, remain from the compost application after a decade. For the 500 or 750 t·ha−1 compost rates the SOC increments in the upper 10–15 cm were 0.85% or 1.6% over the 4.9% developed from a baseline of 1.8% in control areas by a decade of natural regeneration. Calculation of the elemental loadings from the compost analyses compared to the present-day levels suggests SOC declines after application at an average annual rate approaching 10%, compared to 5% for the nutrients or contaminants, roughly equivalent to half-lives of 5 or 10 years respectively. The study demonstrates the long-term soil organic matter (SOM) additions, fertility benefits and technical feasibility of a one-off, high-rate application of waste-derived compost to improve urban soils, compared to the potential trade-off of adding to PTE loadings. This longevity of SOC addition, previously unrecognised in brownfield soils, may be inferred for other areas where further cultivation is precluded, as is typical after landscape restoration or under perennial energy crops for the production of biomass. This unprecedented result has wider implications for marginal land use for bioenergy and the opportunities therein for SOC management using anthropogenic organic wastes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Parking futures: The relationship between parking space, everyday life and travel demand in the UK

The paper proposes and develops an original concept, dormant vehicles, which refers to vehicles that are stationary while waiting to be used again, such as current parked cars. The concept involves several types of vehicles (cars, bikes, vans, automated vehicles), durations, temporal locations and rates of recurrence that, with the emergence of new mobility futures, would have diverse forms with significant implications for land use, space and place. New forms of dormant vehicle include shared electric vehicles, dock-less bikes and delivery vans that besides parking would present new in-between use situations such as dropping-off, picking-up, delivering, charging and awaiting repair. The paper highlights that without thinking clearly about these aspects of the future, plans for sustainable, smart cities could fall into a similar trap as in historical versions of automobility and parking, that is, of overlooking dormant vehicles and the ways they shape and are shaped. Rather than parking conveniently disappearing from cities, it is instead likely to change in various respects. The paper sets out to put this research agenda at the forefront, drawing on social theories of practice to propose and develop this new concept, highlighting its potential contribution to urban futures thinking. Ultimately, the paper argues for inverting urban mobility futures to identify the new forms of dormant vehicles associated with them, and consider their implications for land use, space and place.