Implications For Seismic Hazard Analysis Research Articles

Characterizing Earthquake Source Parameters and b Value Variations in Subduction and Fault Segments: Implications for Seismic Hazard Analysis

Characterizing Earthquake Source Parameters and b Value Variations in Subduction and Fault Segments: Implications for Seismic Hazard Analysis

Current deformation in eastern part of Java derived from GPS observation 2017-2022

The eastern part of Java Island is a prone area with high seismic potential. Geologically, the seismicity in this area is dominated by the subduction zone in southern Java, reverse faults structure in the north extending along east to west part of Java Islands, and normal faults in Pasuruan and Probolinggo. Several studies have indicated the potential of earthquakes associated with these sources. The geodetic technique is employed to monitor the deformation activity in the eastern part of Java to understand the characteristics. We utilized the continuous GPS stations operated by Geospatial Agency of Indonesia (BIG) and processed them using the GAMIT/GLOBK software. The processing incorporates the IGS stations surrounding Indonesia. We also used precise orbit and 2nd-order ionospheric correction. The processing produces the velocity in the ITRF2014 reference frame, which generally indicates the south-eastward velocity up to 29 mm/year, mainly influenced by block rotation. Velocity referenced to the Sunda block shows a distinguished pattern between southern Java and northern Java. The velocity pattern in the southern part of Java tends to move northwest with a velocity variation of 3-6 mm/year, while several north stations show a velocity pattern to the south with a variation of 2-4 mm/yr. The strain analysis shows different patterns between eastern and western regions and different characteristics of southern and northern regions. Mainly the deformation is dominated by the compression due to the subduction in the south. Meanwhile, near to the central Java the deformation patterns significantly change due to the appearance of the east-west extension. The result indicates the different distinguished characteristics of the deformation source in the eastern part of Java. This result will have implications for seismic hazard analysis as a contribution to disaster risk reduction in the future.

The Campotosto linkage fault zone between the 2009 and 2016 seismic sequences of central Italy: Implications for seismic hazard analysis

In the last decade central Italy was struck by devastating seismic sequences resulting in hundreds of casualties (i.e., 2009-L′Aquila moment magnitude [Mw] = 6.3, and 2016-Amatrice-Visso-Norcia Mw max = 6.5). These seismic events were caused by two NW-SE−striking, SW-dipping, seismogenic normal faults that were modeled based on the available focal mechanisms and the seismic moment computed during the relative mainshocks. The seismogenic faults responsible for the 2009-L′Aquila Mw = 6.3 (Paganica Fault—PF) and 2016-Amatrice-Visso-Norcia Mw max = 6.5 (Monte Vettore Fault—MVF) are right-stepping with a negative overlap (i.e., underlap) located at the surface in the Campotosto area. This latter was affected by seismic swarms with magnitude ranging from 5.0 to 5.5 during the 2009 seismic sequence and then in 2017 (i.e., a few months later than the mainshocks related with the 2016 seismic sequence). In this paper, the seismogenic faults related to the main seismic events that occurred in the Campotosto Seismic Zone (CSZ) were modeled and interpreted as a linkage fault zone between the PF and MVF interacting seismogenic faults. Based on the underlap dimension, the seismogenic potential of the CSZ is in the order of Mw = 6.0, even in the case that all the faults belonging to the zone were activated simultaneously. This has important implications for seismic hazard assessment in an area dominated by the occurrence of a major NW-SE−striking extensional structure, i.e., the Monte Gorzano Fault (MGF). Mainly due to its geomorphologic expression, this fault has been considered as an active and silent structure (therefore representing a seismic gap) able to generate an earthquake of Mw max = 6.5−7.0. However, the geological evidence provided with this study suggests that the MGF is of early (i.e., pre- to syn-thrusting) origin. Therefore, the evaluation of the seismic hazard in the Campotosto area should not be based on the geometrical characteristics of the outcropping MGF. This also generates substantial issues with earthquake geological studies carried out prior to the recent seismic events in central Italy. More in general, the 4-D high-resolution image of a crustal volume hosting an active linkage zone between two large seismogenic structures provides new insights into the behavior of interacting faults in the incipient stages of connection.

Effects of surface topography on ground shaking prediction: implications for seismic hazard analysis and recommendations for seismic design

This study examines the role of topographic effects on the prediction of earthquake ground motion. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are mathematical models that estimate the shaking level induced by an earthquake as a function of several parameters, such as magnitude, source-to-site distance, style of faulting and ground type. However, little importance is given to the effects of topography, which, as known, may play a significant role on the level, duration and frequency content of ground motion. Ridges and crests are often lost inside the large number of sites considered in the definition of a GMPE. Hence, it is presumable that current GMPEs are unable to accurately predict the shaking level at the top of a relief. The present work, which follows the article of Massa et al. about topographic effects, aims at overcoming this limitation by amending an existing GMPE with an additional term to account for the effects of surface topography at a specific site. First, experimental ground motion values and ground motions predicted by the attenuation model of Bindi et al. for five case studies are compared and contrasted in order to quantify their discrepancy and to identify anomalous behaviours of the sites investigated. Secondly, for the site of Narni (Central Italy), amplification factors derived from experimental measurements and numerical analyses are compared and contrasted, pointing out their impact on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and design norms. In particular, with reference to the Italian building code, our results have highlighted the inadequacy of the national provisions concerning the definition of the seismic load at top of ridges and crests, evidencing a significant underestimation of ground motion around the site resonance frequency.

Variability in earthquake stress drop and apparent stress

[1] We apply empirical Green's function coda-based analysis to four earthquake sequences in Japan that span a magnitude range of 1.8 to 6.9, to measure radiated energy, corner frequency and stress drop. We find no systematic dependence of apparent stress or stress drop on seismic moment for these sequences, and find they both are log-normally distributed; however, we identify several anomalous events - both energetic and enervated - that show sharply different spectral signatures from the rest of the population. These events indicate that much of the variation in apparent stress and stress drop is statistically significant, which may have important implications for seismic hazard analysis.

Bivergent thrust wedges surrounding oceanic island arcs: Insight from observations and sandbox models of the northeastern Caribbean plate

At several localities around the world, thrust belts have developed on both sides of oceanic island arcs (e.g., Java-Timor, Panama, Vanuatu, and the northeastern Caribbean). In these localities, the overall vergence of the backarc thrust belt is opposite to that of the forearc thrust belt. For example, in the northeastern Caribbean, a north-verging accretionary prism lies to the north of the Eastern Greater Antilles arc (Hispaniola and Puerto Rico), whereas a south-verging thrust belt called the Muertos thrust belt lies to the south. Researchers have attributed such bivergent geometry to several processes, including: reversal of subduction polarity; subduction-driven mantle fl ow; stress transmission across the arc; gravitational spreading of the arc; and magmatic infl ation within the arc. New observations of deformational features in the Muertos thrust belt and of fault geometries produced in sandbox kinematic models, along with examination of published studies of island arcs, lead to the conclusion that the bivergence of thrusting in island arcs can develop without reversal of subduction polarity, without subarc mantle fl ow, and without magmatic infl ation. We suggest that the Eastern Greater Antilles arc and comparable arcs are simply crustalscale bivergent (or “doubly vergent”) thrust wedges formed during unidirectional subduction. Sandbox kinematic modeling suggests, in addition, that a broad retrowedge containing an imbricate fan of thrusts develops only where the arc behaves relatively rigidly. In such cases, the arc acts as a backstop that transmits compressive stress into the backarc region. Further, modeling shows that when arcs behave as rigid blocks, the strike-slip component of oblique convergence is accommodated entirely within the prowedge and the arc—the retrowedge hosts only dip-slip faulting (“frontal thrusting”). The existence of large retrowedges and the distribution of faulting in an island arc may, therefore, be evidence that the arc is relatively rigid. The rigidity of an island arc may arise from its mafi c composition and has implications for seismic-hazard analysis.

Displacement and Geometrical Characteristics of Earthquake Surface Ruptures: Issues and Implications for Seismic-Hazard Analysis and the Process of Earthquake Rupture

There now exist about three dozen historical earthquakes for which in- vestigators have constructed maps of earthquake rupture traces accompanied by de- scriptions of the coseismic slip observed along the fault strike. The maps and slip distributions are compiled here to place observational bounds on aspects of seismic- hazard analysis and fault mechanics. Analysis leads to an initial statistical basis to predict the end points of rupture and the amount of surface slip expected at sites along the strike during earthquakes on mapped faults. The observations also give support to the ideas that there exists a process zone or volume of about 3-4 km in dimension at the fronts of large laterally propagating earthquake ruptures within which stress changes may be sufficient to trigger slip on adjacent faults, and that the ultimate length of earthquake ruptures is controlled primarily by the geometrical complexity of fault traces and variations in accumulated stress levels along faults that arise due to the location of past earthquakes. To this may be added the observation that the form of earthquake surface-slip distributions is better described by asymmetric rather than symmetric curve forms and that earthquake epicenters do not appear to correlate in any systematic manner to regions of maximum surface slip observed along strike. Online Material: Maps of surface ruptures, digitized values and curve fits to surface-slip distributions, and notes and references for Tables 1 and 2.

The Influence of Magnitude Range on Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction

A key issue in the assessment of seismic hazard in regions of low- to-moderate seismicity is the extent to which accelerograms obtained from small- magnitude earthquakes can be used as the basis for predicting ground motions due to the larger-magnitude events considered in seismic hazard analysis. In essence, the question is whether empirical ground-motion prediction equations can be applied outside their strict range of applicability as defined by the magnitude and distance ranges covered by the datasets from which they are derived. This question is explored by deriving new spectral prediction equations using an extended strong-motion da- taset from Europe and the Middle East covering the magnitude range Mw 3.0-7.6 and comparing the predictions with previous equations derived using data from only Mw 5.0 and above events. The comparisons show that despite their complex func- tional form, including quadratic magnitude-dependence and magnitude-dependent attenuation, the equations derived from larger-magnitude events should not be extra- polated to predict ground motions from earthquakes of small magnitude. Moreover, the results suggest not only that ground-motion prediction equations cannot be used outside the ranges of their underlying datasets but also that their applicability at the limits of these ranges may be questionable. Although only tested for smaller magni- tudes, the results could be interpreted to suggest that predictive equations also cannot be reliably extrapolated to higher magnitudes than those represented in the dataset from which they are derived, a finding that has important implications for seismic hazard analysis. The conclusion of the study is that empirical derivation of ground-motion pre- diction equations should be based on datasets extending at least one unit below the lower limit of magnitude considered in seismic hazard calculations. The inclusion of small-magnitude recordings results in a significant increase in the aleatory varia- bility of the equations, although it is yet to be established whether this is due to greater uncertainty in the associated metadata or whether ground-motion variability is gen- uinely dependent on earthquake magnitude.

Heterogeneous fault stresses from previous earthquakes and the effect on dynamics of parallel strike‐slip faults

We combine a viscoelastic model for the interseismic process and an elastodynamic model for the coseismic process to explore the dynamics (over multiple earthquake cycles) of two parallel strike‐slip faults embedded in a two‐dimensional full space. The step over fault geometry results in a buildup of heterogeneous fault stress near the step over. This heterogeneous stress accumulates at the early stage of the evolution of the fault system, and finally stabilizes after a number of earthquake cycles. The heterogeneity in fault stress varies with the geometrical parameters (e.g., width and along‐strike overlap/gap) of the step over, as well as the rupture history of the fault system. This heterogeneous fault stress from previous earthquakes has significant effects on earthquake rupture initiation, propagation, and termination. The locations with a low normal stress level near a step over are favorable points for earthquake initiation. Rupture can jump a 4 km wide compressional step over and a 8 km or wider dilational step over if the fault system has historically experienced many earthquakes. A young step over with less induced heterogeneity allows rupture to jump only smaller step over widths. These results may have important implications for seismic hazard analysis in areas where segmented strike‐slip faults predominate, particularly for estimating maximum earthquake potential.

Ground-penetrating radar investigation of active faults along the Dead Sea Transform and implications for seismic hazards within the city of Aqaba, Jordan

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) was used in an effort to locate a major active fault that traverses Aqaba City, Jordan. Measurements over an exposed (trenched) cross fault outside of the city identify a radar signature consisting of linear events and horizontal offset/flexured reflectors both showing a geometric correlation with two known faults at a control site. The asymmetric linear events are consistent with dipping planar reflectors matching the known direction of dip of the faults. However, other observations regarding this radar signature render the mechanism generating these events more complex and uncertain. GPR measurements in Aqaba City were limited to vacant lots. Seven GPR profiles were conducted approximately perpendicular to the assumed strike of the fault zone, based on regional geological evidence. A radar response very similar to that obtained over the cross fault was observed on five of the profiles in Aqaba City, although the response is weaker than that obtained at the control site. The positions of the identified responses form a near straight line with a strike of 45°. Although subsurface verification of the fault by trenching within the city is needed, the geophysical evidence for fault zone location is strong. The location of the interpreted fault zone relative to emergency services, military bases, commercial properties, and residential areas is defined to within a few meters. This study has significant implications for seismic hazard analysis in this tectonically active and heavily populated region.

Active tectonics in the central Apennines and possible implications for seismic hazard analysis in peninsular Italy

The central Apennines fault system (CAFS) of peninsular Italy, overprints earlier structures of a Neogene fold and thrust belt and includes segments characterized by diffuse seismicity distributed within a NNW-SSE-trending zone, 50–60 km wide. The system has been analysed by means of morphotectonic and structural analysis of exposed active fault segments. The resulting fault structure consists of an interconnecting network of roughly N-S-trending, left-lateral, strike-slip segments and mostly NW-SE-oriented, transtensional to normal faults. Evidence for recent activity of CAFS structures is provided by faulted Middle Pleistocene-Holocene deposits (including 30–40-ka-old pyroclastites and 40-ka-old palustrine sediments), fresh scarps in both bedrock and Late Quaternary continental deposits, and decametric lateral offsets locally affecting the post-Wurmian drainage pattern of the area. The regional stress field responsible for the development and evolution of the CAFS, as inferred from fault slip data, is characterized by a NW-SE compression and by a NE-SW extension. The CAFS pattern and its present-day kinematics have been related to left-lateral strike-slip motion on north-south-trending crustal faults. The existence of deep-seated strike-slip faults in the central Apennines has implications for seismic hazard analysis. Motion along these structures suggests, in fact, that coseismic surface faulting is distributed, and that cumulative displacements include normal, transtensional, and strike-slip components. The seismogenic potential of CAFS structures can therefore be best described by multiple-rupture models and be better analysed in terms of partial contributions of lower-rank features constituting congruent structural associations within the system.

Assessment of seismic hazard near faults of uncertain type: Inter-plate versus intra-plate

Maximum magnitude is an important input parameter in seismic hazard analysis, but may be difficult to determine directly on the basis of available seismological data. Moreover, there is evidence that the scaling law relating maximum magnitude to fault length for inter-plate faults may differ from the law for intra-plate faults. Thus uncertainty as to the fault type can complicate the problem of determining maximum magnitude. We present a method for examining the implications for seismic hazard analysis of uncertainty regarding fault type. We apply the method to a simple constructed example and find that the problem of assessing fault type can be far more critical to the hazard assessment than the exact statement of fault geometry, especially for sites that are distant from the fault.