Implications For Risk Management Research Articles

Evaluating Germline Testing Panels in Southern African Males With Advanced Prostate Cancer.

Germline testing for prostate cancer is on the increase, with clinical implications for risk assessment, treatment, and management. Regardless of family history, NCCN recommends germline testing for patients with metastatic, regional, very-high-risk localized, and high-risk localized prostate cancer. Although African ancestry is a significant risk factor for aggressive prostate cancer, due to a lack of available data no testing criteria have been established for ethnic minorities. Through deep sequencing, we interrogated the 20 most common germline testing panel genes in 113 Black South African males presenting with largely advanced prostate cancer. Bioinformatic tools were then used to identify the pathogenicity of the variants. After we identified 39 predicted deleterious variants (16 genes), further computational annotation classified 17 variants as potentially oncogenic (12 genes; 17.7% of patients). Rare pathogenic variants included CHEK2 Arg95Ter, BRCA2 Trp31Arg, ATM Arg3047Ter (2 patients), and TP53 Arg282Trp. Notable oncogenic variants of unknown pathogenicity included novel BRCA2 Leu3038Ile in a patient with early-onset disease, whereas patients with FANCA Arg504Cys and RAD51C Arg260Gln reported a family history of prostate cancer. Overall, rare pathogenic and early-onset or familial-associated oncogenic variants were identified in 6.9% (5/72) and 9.2% (8/87) of patients presenting with a Gleason score ≥8 or ≥4 + 3 prostate cancer, respectively. In this first-of-its-kind study of southern African males, we provide support of African inclusion for advanced, early-onset, and familial prostate cancer genetic testing, indicating clinical value for 30% of current gene panels. Recognizing current panel limitations highlights an urgent need to establish testing guidelines for men of African ancestry. We provide a rationale for considering lowering the pathologic diagnostic inclusion criteria and call for further genome-wide interrogation to ensure the best possible African-relevant prostate cancer gene panel.

The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: Implications for Portfolio and Risk Management in the Banking Sector

AbstractThe Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) is the promised overhaul of bankmarket risk regulation. FRTB retains the authorized use of proprietary risk models, however, it introduces two additional criteria: (i) P&L attribution (PLA) tests and (ii) desk‐level backtests. We examine empirically whether these additional criteria influence risk management and portfolio management practice, specifically portfolio construction and choice of risk model. We find that the PLA tests demand significant alignment with risk factors, however, the backtests do not incentivize use of superior risk models. This has important implications for the efficacy of the capital‐based regulatory system.

Searching hedging instruments against diverse global risks and uncertainties

We evaluate the influence of five major risk and uncertainty factors on four asset classes. Our time-varying findings suggest that each asset hedges only a particular uncertainty factor, whereas gold does more than one factor, especially during COVID-19. Our frequency-based quantile regression (QR) results show that in the raw frequency, gold and Islamic stock can better hedge various uncertainty factors than Bitcoin and crude oil, depending on the market conditions. Additionally, using the frequency bands (e.g., short, medium, and long term) data, we further notice that, depending on the market circumstances and investment horizons, gold and Islamic stock returns are still better hedges for the various risks and uncertainties than Bitcoin and crude oil returns. Our findings have crucial risk and portfolio management implications for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers.

A narrative review of the impact of work hours and insufficient rest on job performance.

This review discusses the scientific evidence regarding effects of insufficient rest on clinical performance and house officer training programs, the associations of clinical duty scheduling with insufficient rest, and the implications for risk management. Narrative review. Several literature searches using broad terms such as "sleep deprivation," "veterinary," "physician," and "surgeon" were performed using PubMed and Google scholar. Sleep deprivation and insufficient rest have clear and deleterious effects on job performance, which in healthcare occupations impacts patient safety and practice function. The unique requirements of a career in veterinary surgery, which may include on-call shifts and overnight work, can lead to distinct sleep challenges and chronic insufficient rest with resultant serious but often poorly recognized impacts. These effects negatively impact practices, teams, surgeons, and patients. The self-assessment of fatigue and performance effect is demonstrably untrustworthy, reinforcing the need for institution-level protections. While the issues are complex and there is no one-size-fits-all approach, duty hour or workload restrictions may be an important first step in addressing these issues within veterinary surgery, as it has been in human medicine. Systematic re-examination of cultural expectations and practice logistics are needed if improvement in working hours, clinician well-being, productivity, and patient safety are to occur. A more comprehensive understanding of the magnitude and consequence of sleep-related impairment better enables surgeons and hospital management to address systemic challenges in veterinary practice and training programs.

Multilayer information spillover networks between oil shocks and banking sectors: Evidence from oil-rich countries

There is no doubt that oil price shocks significantly affect oil-producing countries' macroeconomic fundamentals and financial stability, mainly in crisis times. The recent oil price shocks, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic, motivated us to investigate the connectedness and risk transmission among oil shocks and banking sectors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies from June 30, 2006, to September 9, 2021. Thus, we construct multilayer information spillover networks between oil price shocks and GCC banking sectors. The empirical results show that the Bahrain banking sector depicts the highest connectedness and risk transmission with oil price shocks on the extreme risk spillover layer. In addition, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are highly connected to oil demand shocks. Furthermore, we find a substantial increase in extreme risk spillover and volatility spillover layers during the COVID-19 period. The results of this paper have some important implications for regional portfolio risk management, alleviating systemic risk, and developing hedging and investment strategies.

Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Volatility Spillover between Conventional and Islamic Stock Markets: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Countries

This study aims to investigate the dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover between the conventional and Islamic stock markets in developed and emerging countries in order to develop better portfolio and asset allocation strategies. We used both multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) and multi-scales-based maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) approaches to investigate dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover between conventional and Islamic stock markets in developed and emerging countries. The results show that conventional and Islamic markets move together in the long run for a specific time horizon and present time-varying volatility and dynamic conditional correlation, while volatility movement changes due to financial catastrophes and market conditions. Further, the findings point out that Chinese conventional and Islamic stock indexes showed higher volatility, whereas Malaysian conventional and Islamic stock indexes showed comparatively lower volatility during the global financial crisis. This study provides fresh insights and practical implications for risk management, asset allocation, and portfolio diversification strategies that evaluate stock market reactions to the crisis in the international avenues of finance literature.

Systemic Risk Transmission from the United States to Asian Economies During the COVID-19 Period

The study investigates the systemic risk transmission from the US banking sector and the US market to the five most economically impacted Asian nations (Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, India, and Singapore) during the COVID-19 period of 2020. We consider the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) approach to estimate the systemic risk of the given economies at 5% quantile (for severe downturn risk) and 20% quantile (for moderate downturn risk). Our findings demonstrate a rise in systemic risk for these Asian countries in 2020, particularly in the first half of the year. The findings also provide evidence of the significant systemic risk transmission from the US banking sector and the US stock market to the majority of the given Asian economies at both quantiles. The study further highlights the significant contribution of the US financial market in increasing the systemic risk of the given Asian economies in 2020. We find similar results for systemic risk transmission from the UK, the European Union, and Japan to the given Asian economies. The findings have implications for market participants, risk managers, and regulators who are concerned with risk diversification and tracking the routes of risk shock transmission. JEL Codes: G10; G18; G20

Forecasting shipping index using CEEMD-PSO-BiLSTM model.

Shipping indices are extremely volatile, non-stationary, unstructured and non-linear, and more difficult to forecast than other common financial time series. Based on the idea of "decomposition-reconstruction-integration", this article puts forward a combined forecasting model CEEMD-PSO-BiLSTM for shipping index, which overcomes the linearity limitation of traditional models. CEEMD is used to decompose the original sequence into several IMF components and RES sequences, and the IMF components are recombined by reconstruction. Each sub-sequence is predicted and analyzed by PSO-BiLSTM neural network, and finally the predicted value of the original sequence is obtained by summing up the predicted values of each sub-sequence. Using six major shipping indices in China's shipping market such as FDI and BDI as test data, a systematic comparison test is conducted between the CEEMD-PSO-BiLSTM model and other mainstream time-series models in terms of forecasting effects. The results show that the model outperforms other models in all indicators, indicating its universality in different shipping markets. The research results of this article can deepen and improve the understanding of shipping indices, and also have important implications for risk management and decision management in the shipping market.

Iron overload modulates follicular microenvironment via ROS/HIF-1α/FSHR signaling.

Iron is essential for the health of reproductive system, and women with iron overload suffer from ovarian dysfunction and lack effective treatment in fertility preservation. However, the underlying mechanism of the detrimental effects of iron overload on ovarian function remains ambiguous. Here, we confirmed the excess iron in the circumjacent follicle near endometriomas, which negatively impacted the oocyte development in the affected ovaries. Further, by integrating cell line and chronic iron overload mice model, we demonstrated that iron overload can function as a ROS inducer to amplify mitochondria damage, which significantly elevated the release of cytochrome C and ultimately induced the apoptosis of granular cells. Besides, for the first time, our findings revealed that disruption of HIF-1α/FSHR/CYP19A1 signaling was critical for decreased estrogen synthesis of granular cells in response to iron overload, which can lead to apparent oocyte maldevelopment and subfertility. Overall. this study uncovered that iron overload modulated the follicular microenvironment and generated a deleterious effect on female infertility via ROS/HIF-1α/FSHR signaling. These results might provide potential implications for future clinical risk management of patients with endometrioma and hemopathy.

Prophylaxis of Ocular Infection in the Setting of Intraocular Surgery: Implications for Clinical Practice and Risk Management.

In this review we discuss the role of intraocular surgery preoperative prophylaxis. The correct choice of antimicrobial drug is variable in each surgical setting, according to the available strengths of evidence, the anatomical district involved, and the type of procedure. In the ophthalmic surgical field, there has been a progressive shift from antibiotic formulations, which are known to cause antibiotic resistance, to a new class of antiseptic compounds, which proved to be effective not only against bacteria, but also against fungi, protozoa, and viruses. Among these, povidone-iodine (PVI) is a water-soluble polymer that can form a complex with iodine, and the perioperative application of PVI 5-10% eye drop for 3min is the gold standard for infection prophylaxis. A new formulation of 0.6% PVI eye drop is a new option for infection prophylaxis in the days before surgery. Chlorhexidine is a biguanide compound, which is a valid alternative with a good safety and efficacy profile and is the antiseptic of choice in patients with iodine allergy. New compounds that are currently being studied include polyhexamethylene biguanide (PHMB), picloxydine, ozone, hypochlorous acid (HOCl), and Biosecur. PHMB is a biguanide polymer that was found to be more effective than PVI in invitro studies for reducing microorganisms and extending the duration of antisepsis, but to date, there are no formulations available on the market for preoperative ocular surgery in which it is present as main ingredient. Ozone is a molecule with oxidizing effect, which showed interesting preliminary results but is not effective against virus, Staphylococcusaureus and Candidaalbicans. HOCl has a natural bactericidal propriety but its applicability to prophylaxis of ocular infection in the setting of ocular surgery is not established. Biosecur is a non-toxic organic alcohol-free compound that exhibited bactericidal and fungicidal effect versus all common microorganisms and is currently available as an ocular spray.

A new take on the relationship between interest rates and credit spreads

ABSTRACT We revisit the link between interest rates and corporate bond credit spreads by applying Rigobon’s (2003) unique heteroskedasticity-based identification methodology to their interconnected dynamics through a bivariate VAR system. This different approach allows us to account for simultaneity issues and use this framework to test the various possible explanations for the credit spread – interest rate relation that have been proposed by the literature over the years. We find that credit spreads do indeed respond negatively to interest rates, a result consistent with Merton’s (1974) structural model. This negative relation is robust to macroeconomic shocks, market uncertainty, business cycles, different sample periods, bond callability, and bond ratings. We also find the magnitude of the negative relation to be larger for high-yield bonds than for investment-grade bonds, and are able to rule out the option-like feature of callable bonds proposed by Duffee (1998) as the main driver of the negative nature of the relationship. These results have important portfolio and risk management implications.

Risk of Crop Yield Reduction in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming from CMIP6 Models.

Warmer temperatures significantly influence crop yields, which are a critical determinant of food supply and human well-being. In this study, a probabilistic approach based on bivariate copula models was used to investigate the dependence (described by joint distribution) between crop yield and growing season temperature (TGS) in the major producing provinces of China for three staple crops (i.e., rice, wheat, and maize). Based on the outputs of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5, the probability of yield reduction under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming was estimated, which has great implications for agricultural risk management. Results showed that yield response to TGS varied with crop and region, with the most vulnerable being rice in Sichuan, wheat in Sichuan and Gansu, and maize in Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Nei Mongol, Shanxi, and Hebei. Among the selected five copulas, Archimedean/elliptical copulas were more suitable to describe the joint distribution between TGS and yield in most rice-/maize-producing provinces. The probability of yield reduction was greater in vulnerable provinces than in non-vulnerable provinces, with maize facing a higher risk of warming-driven yield loss than rice and wheat. Compared to the 1.5 °C global warming, an additional 0.5 °C warming would increase the yield loss risk in vulnerable provinces by 2-17%, 1-16%, and 3-17% for rice, wheat, and maize, respectively. The copula-based model proved to be an effective tool to provide probabilistic estimates of yield reduction due to warming and can be applied to other crops and regions. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of keeping global warming within 1.5 °C to mitigate the yield loss risk and optimize agricultural decision-making in vulnerable regions.

Ranking and Evaluation Risks of Human Error Factors in Uncertain and Imprecision Information

Reasons for Human Error, the term risk is used to describe the many potential causes of human mistakes. Capabilities, organizational culture, job complexity, and environmental variables are just a few of the many aspects that fall under this category. Accidents, improvements in safety, and gains in productivity may all benefit from a better understanding of and approach to minimizing human error. This paper highlights the necessity for comprehensive methods and actions to limit the effect of human error by providing an overview of the primary human error components and their implications for risk management. Due to various criteria, the concept of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) is used to deal with various criteria. This paper used the MCDM tools to rank and evaluate the risks of human error factors. The DEMATEL method is a MCDM tool is used to compute the weights of these factors and rank the risks. The DEMATEL method is integrated with the neutrosophic set to deal with uncertain information. This paper used the single-valued neutrosophic set with three values (truth, indeterminacy, and falsity) values. The twenty risks are identified in this paper and ranked.

Haste Makes Waste: Banking Organization Growth and Operational Risk

This study shows that banking organization growth is associated with higher operational losses per dollar of total assets and incidence of tail risks. Event studies using M&A activity and instrumental variable regressions provide consistent evidence. The relationship between banking organization growth and operational risk varies by loss event types and balance sheet categories. We demonstrate that higher growth predicts worse operational risk realizations during the global financial crisis. These findings have implications for bank performance, risk management and supervision in a continually consolidating banking industry.

Two-week repair alleviates hexavalent chromium-induced hepatotoxicity, hepatic metabolic and gut microbial changes: A dynamic inhalation exposure model in male mice.

Hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] has been identified as a "Group I human carcinogen" with multisystem and multiorgan toxicity. A dynamic inhalation exposure model in male mice, coupled with the hepatic metabolome and gut microbiome, was used to explore hepatotoxicity, and hepatic metabolic and gut microbial changes under the exposure scenarios in the workspace and general environment. The present study set up an exposure group (EXP) that inhaled 150 μg Cr/m3 for 13 weeks, a control group (CONT) that inhaled purified air, as well as a two-week repair group (REXP) after 13 weeks of exposure and the corresponding control group (RCONT). Cr(VI) induced elevation of hepatic Cr accumulation, the ratio of ALT and AST, and folate in serum. Inflammatory infiltration in the liver and abnormal mitochondria in hepatocytes were also induced by Cr(VI). Glutathione, ascorbate, folic acid, pantetheine, 3'-dephospho-CoA and citraconic acid were the key metabolites affected by Cr(VI) that were associated with significant pathways such as pantothenate and CoA biosynthesis, hypoxia-inducible factor-1 signaling pathway, antifolate resistance, alpha-linolenic acid metabolism and one carbon pool by folate. g_Allobaculum was identified as a sensitive biomarker of Cr(VI) exposure because g_Allobaculum decreased under Cr(VI) exposure but increased after repair. The gut microbiota might be involved in the compensation of hepatotoxicity by increasing short-chain fatty acid-producing bacteria, including g_Lachnospiraceae_NK4A136_group, g_Blautia, and f_Muribaculaceae. After the two-week repair, the differential metabolites between the exposed and control groups were reduced from 73 to 29, and the KEGG enrichment pathways and differential microbiota also decreased. The mechanism for repair was associated with reversion of lipid peroxidation and energy metabolism, as well as activation of protective metabolic pathways, such as the AMPK signaling pathway, longevity regulating pathway, and oxidative phosphorylation. These findings might have theoretical and practical implications for better health risk assessment and management.

ESG tail risk: The Covid-19 market crash analysis

This paper shows that strong ESG taste leads to higher tail risk in high-ESG (green) stocks compared to low-ESG (brown) stocks during market crashes. In crash episodes, strong ESG tastes induce investors to hold green stocks despite negative expected returns. Logically, the non-pecuniary benefit from ESG investing compensates for the dis-utility of financial loss. This expectation of price declines makes put options on green stocks more expensive and increases tail risk. I conduct a pseudo-causal analysis on the COVID-19 market crash that supports these theoretical findings. My findings provide novel implications for portfolio selection and risk management with ESG consideration.

NURSING HOME STAFF RISK PERCEPTIONS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Abstract Nursing home (NH) staffs’ risk perceptions related to NH residents’ health and safety are a barrier to honoring residents’ preferences for care and activities; this was exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study intended to describe NH staffs’ self-perceived risk perceptions during the COVID-19 crisis as measured by the validated Risk Propensity Scale. Participants (N=27) included licensed and unlicensed nursing staff (e.g., RN, LPN, CNA), social workers, and activities directors, were mostly female (85%), White (74%), non-Hispanic (93%), and had more than three years of experience working in NHs (78%). Survey results indicated that males considered themselves risk seekers (M=7.5 out of 9) and females risk avoiders (M=4.0). Despite identifying as a risk seeker or risk avoider, the majority of participants agreed with “safety first”, preferred to avoid risk, and viewed risks as “a challenge.” Findings will be discussed considering implications for person-centered risk management during a public health crisis.

Asymmetric effect of financial stress on China’s precious metals market: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile regression

Constructing the China’s financial stress index (CFSI), this paper investigates the asymmetric impact of financial stress on precious metals by employing a novel quantile-on-quantile approach. The results show that precious metals can be used as a safe haven to hedge financial market risks. However, the risk aversion of precious metals varies under different precious metals market conditions. In addition, the structural changes in the effect on precious metals are found after the global financial crisis, reflecting the heterogeneity of the relationship between financial stress and precious metals before and after the global financial crisis. These results have meaningful implications for investors and risk managers.

Green bonds and oil price shocks and uncertainty: A safe haven analysis

This paper investigates the hedge and safe-haven properties of green bonds (GBs) performing as a safeguard against oil price shocks and uncertainty, in comparison to the corresponding roles of gold, the 3-month European government bills and the U.S. 3-Month T. bills. Oil price shocks are disentangled into oil supply, oil demand, and oil risk shocks based on the recent methodology of Ready (2018) , generated in a framework that includes gold, oil shocks, and oil uncertainty (OVX). The ability of GBs to protect against oil price shocks and oil uncertainty is examined, using the GARCH and quantile regression (QR) models. The results show that GBs are more appropriate than gold and conventional bonds (CBs) as hedging and safe haven tools against oil price shocks and oil uncertainty. Besides, the ability of GBs to protect against oil price shocks and uncertainty depends on whether the oil shocks are supply, demand, or risk shocks. Furthermore, we find that GBs serve as a strong hedge and/or a safe haven against structural oil shocks generally under the bearish GBs market conditions. The European government bills and the US T. bills play the role of weak hedge and a safe haven asset against the oil uncertainty and the oil shocks. This role varies across quantiles (bear and bull market conditions). Relevant risk management implications are discussed.

Introducing NARCliM1.5: Evaluation and projection of climate extremes for southeast Australia

NARCliM1.5 is the second generation of New South Wales and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project, which is designed to produce an ensemble of regional climate projections for CORDEX Australasia and southeast Australia. The selected global climate models (GCMs) are used to drive Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we evaluate how well the two generations of NARCliM (N1.0 and N1.5) represent the observed record for 12 selected climate extremes and examine their projected changes for southeast Australia. N1.5 ensemble substantially improves upon N1.0 in capturing the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes, however, there is little difference between the two ensembles for temperature extremes. Both N1.0 and N1.5 underestimate dry extreme (consecutive dry day - CDD), hot extremes (warmest daily maximum temperature – TXx, and number of days when maximum temperature is greater than 35 °C - TXge35) and daily temperature range (DTR) but overestimate wet extremes (annual sum of daily precipitation above 99th percentile - R99p, consecutive wet days - CWD, days when precipitation is at least 10 mm - R10mm, maximum 1-day precipitation - Rx1Day and total wet day precipitation -PRCPTOT) and cold extreme (coldest daily minimum temperature - TNn). N1.0 and N1.5 project different spatial patterns of future changes in precipitation extremes but similar changes in temperature extremes. Differences in climate extremes between N1.0 and N1.5 could be attributed to the driving GCMs. The combined future projections of both N1.0 and N1.5 provide a more complete sampling of the future change space. Future projections indicate that precipitation and temperature extremes will become more intense, raising implications for future planning and risk management.