Implications For Hazard Assessment Research Articles

Modeling of pyroclastic flows of Colima Volcano, Mexico: implications for hazard assessment

The 18–24 January 1913 eruption of Colima Volcano consisted of three eruptive phases that produced a complex sequence of tephra fall, pyroclastic surges and pyroclastic flows, with a total volume of 1.1 km 3 (0.31 km 3 DRE). Among these events, the pyroclastic flows are most interesting because their generation mechanisms changed with time. They started with gravitanional dome collapse (block-and-ash flow deposits, Merapi-type), changed to dome collapse triggered by a Vulcanian explosion (block-and-ash flow deposits, Soufrière-type), then ended with the partial collapse of a Plinian column (ash-flow deposits rich in pumice or scoria,). The best exposures of these deposits occur in the southern gullies of the volcano where Heim Coefficients (H/L) were obtained for the various types of flows. Average H/L values of these deposits varied from 0.40 for the Merapi-type (similar to the block-and-ash flow deposits produced during the 1991 and 1994 eruptions), 0.26 for the Soufrière-type events, and 0.17–0.26 for the column collapse ash flows. Additionally, the information of 1991, 1994 and 1998–1999 pyroclastic flow events was used to delimit hazard zones. In order to reconstruct the paths, velocities, and extents of the 20th Century pyroclastic flows, a series of computer simulations were conducted using the program FLOW3D with appropriate Heim coefficients and apparent viscosities. The model results provide a basis for estimating the areas and levels of hazard that could be associated with the next probable worst-case scenario eruption of the volcano. Three areas were traced according to the degree of hazard and pyroclastic flow type recurrence through time. Zone 1 has the largest probability to be reached by short runout (<5 km) Merapi and Soufrière pyroclastic flows, that have occurred every 3 years during the last decade. Zone 2 might be affected by Soufriere-type pyroclastic flows (∼9 km long) similar to those produced during phase II of the 1913 eruption. Zone 3 will only be affected by pyroclastic flows (∼15 km long) formed by the collapse of a Plinian eruptive column, like that of the 1913 climactic eruption. Today, an eruption of the same magnitude as that of 1913 would affect about 15,000 inhabitants of small villages, ranches and towns located within 15 km south of the volcano. Such towns include Yerbabuena, and Becerrera in the State of Colima, and Tonila, San Marcos, Cofradia, and Juan Barragán in the State of Jalisco.

Discrimination of hot versus cold avalanche deposits: Implications for hazard assessment at Mount Meager, B.C.

Abstract. The surficial deposits surrounding the Mount Meager volcanic complex include numerous avalanche deposits. These deposits share many attributes: (a) they are nearly monolithologic and comprise mainly intermediate volcanic rock clasts, (b) they lack internal structure, and (c) they are very poorly sorted. Despite these similarities, the avalanche deposits represent two distinct processes. Mass wasting of the Mount Meager volcanic edifice has produced cold rock avalanche deposits, whereas gravitational collapse of active lava domes and flows has produced hot block and ash avalanche deposits. The ability to discriminate between these "hot" and "cold" avalanche deposits is a critical component in the assessment of hazards in volcanic terranes. Hot block and ash avalanche deposits can be distinguished by the presence of radially-oriented joints, breadcrust textures, and incipient welding, which are features indicative of high emplacement temperatures. Conversely, rock avalanche deposits resulting from mass wasting events may be distinguished by the presence of clasts that preserve pre-depositional weathering and jointing surfaces. Volcanic avalanches are mechanically similar to rock avalanches but pose a greater hazard due to high temperatures, increased fluidization from degassing and the potential to decouple highly mobile elutriated ash clouds. The increasing use of hazardous regions such as the Lillooet River valley requires more reliable risk assessment in order to minimize losses from future hazardous events.

Seasonal Seismicity of Northern California Before the Great 1906 Earthquake

During the late nineteenth century, coastal parts of northern California experienced seismicity which was more intense than at any other time in its historical record and was concentrated in Spring. The seasonal character of this anomalous seismicity was statistically significant from the 1880s, if not earlier, until the time of the great 1906 earthquake. It can be explained as a result of seasonal stress transients caused by the large seasonal sediment loads which accumulated in coastal bays that overlie active strike-slip faults, as a result of hydraulic mining of gold in inland areas. Such localised loading will increase the absolute vertical stress and reduce the absolute horizontal stress, thus facilitating shear failure by unclamping vertical fault planes. However, rather than simply influencing the timing of earthquakes which would otherwise have occurred anyway sometime later, this process appears to have affected the character of the region’s seismicity, causing a sequence of magnitude 5–6 earthquakes which propagated outward from these coastal depocentres. These results have three important implications. First, the proposed physical mechanism is only feasible provided the deepest continental crust in this region has a viscosity no greater than ~1017 Pa s, giving it a Maxwell time of the order of weeks. These observations of seasonal seismicity thus suggest that such low viscosities are reasonable, a conclusion which has been difficult to establish using other evidence. They indicate that future calculations of the stress field in this region, for instance for investigating the role of earthquake triggering, should incorporate this response by lower-crustal flow, not just the immediate elastic effect. Second, the conclusion that seasonal stress transients caused by seasonal changes in surface processes can affect seismicity, has important implications for hazard assessment. It raises the possibility that surface processes may influence the seasonal timing and character of seismicity in other regions also. Finally, it indicates that the decades of intense seismicity, widely interpreted as precursory activity to the 1906 earthquake, were atypical of the longer-term record. Analogous sequences of moderate-sized events cannot necessarily be expected to provide advance warning of future large earthquakes in this region.

Comet and asteroid impact hazards on a populated earth: computer modeling

Preface.Introduction. The Impact Flux. The Impactor. The Impact Process. The Target. Method of Calculation. Results. Implications for Hazard Assessment and Abatement. Areas Requiring Further Study. Conclusions. References. Appendix A: Program HAZARDS Version 5.5 Owner's Manual. Appendix B: Program HAZARDS Version 5.5 Program Listing. Appendix C: Program HAZARDS Version 5.5 Sample Output. References. Index.

Preventing Disaster: Home Ignitability in the Wildland-Urban Interface

Abstract Wildland-urban interface (W-UI) fires are a significant concern for federal, state, and local land management and fire agencies. Research using modeling, experiments, and W-UI case studies indicates that home ignitability during wildland fires depends on the characteristics of the home and its immediate surroundings. These findings have implications for hazard assessment and risk mapping, effective mitigations, and identification of appropriate responsibility for reducing the potential for home loss caused by W-UI fires.

Magmatic and hydromagmatic conduit development during the 1975 Tolbachik Eruption, Kamchatka, with implications for hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain, NV

Xenoliths in pyroclastic fall deposits from the 1975 Tolbachik eruption constrain the timing and development of subsurface conduits associated with basaltic cinder cone eruptions. The two largest Tolbachik vents contain xenoliths derived from magmatic and hydromagmatic processes, which can be correlated with observed styles of eruption activity. Although many basaltic eruptions progress from early hydromagmatic activity to late magmatic activity, transient hydromagmatic events occurred relatively late in the 1975 eruption sequence. Magmatic fall deposits contain 0.01–0.3 vol.% xenoliths from <3-km-deep rocks, likely derived from 6–15-m-wide and 1.7–2.8-km-deep conduits. Intervals that supported the highest tephra columns (i.e., droplet flow regime) produced few of these xenoliths; most were derived from intervals with relatively lower columns and active lava flows (i.e., annular 2-phase flow). Several periods of decreased eruptive activity resulted in inflow of groundwater from >500 m depth into the dry-out zone around the conduit, disrupting and ejecting 10 5–10 6 m 3 of wall-rock through hydromagmatic processes with conduits widening to 8–48 m. Hydromagmatic falls contain 60–75 vol.% of highly fragmented xenoliths, with juvenile clasts displaying obvious magma-water interaction features. During the largest hydromagmatic event, unusual breccia-bombs formed containing a wide range of fresh and pyrometamorphic xenoliths suspended in a quenched basaltic matrix. Hydromagmatic activity during the 1975 Tolbachik eruption occurred below likely fragmentation depths for a basalt containing 2.2 wt.% magmatic water. This activity is more likely related to conduit-wall collapse rather than variations in conduit-flow pressure. In contrast, larger volume silicic eruptions may have transient hydromagmatic events in response to conduit flow dynamics above the magma fragmentation depth. The 1975 Tolbachik volcanoes are reasonably analogous to Quaternary basaltic volcanoes in the Yucca Mountain region and can guide interpretations of their poorly preserved deposits. The youngest basaltic volcanoes near Yucca Mountain have cone deposits characterized by elevated xenolith abundances and distinctive xenolith breccia-bombs, remarkably similar to 1975 Tolbachik deposits. Extrapolation of 1975 Tolbachik data suggests conduits for some Yucca Mountain basaltic volcanoes may have widened locally on the order of 50 m in response to late-stage hydromagmatic events.

Evolution of Cheekye fan, Squamish, British Columbia: Holocene sedimentation and implications for hazard assessment

Evolution of Cheekye fan, Squamish, British Columbia: Holocene sedimentation and implications for hazard assessment

A voluminous avalanche-induced lahar from Citlaltépetl volcano, Mexico: Implications for hazard assessment

During the late Pleistocene the ancestral edifice of Citlaltépetl volcano (also known as Pico de Orizaba) collapsed to form a clay-rich deposit that extends 85 km from its source, has a volume of 1.8 km 3, and covers an area of 143 km 2 east of the volcano. The deposit has clay content ranging from 10 to 16% and contains secondary alteration minerals such as smectite and kaolinite. The deposit's features suggest that it had an origin as a sector collapse of hydrothermally altered rock that transformed from a debris avalanche to a cohesive lahar very close to its source. The presence of glacier ice and a hydrothermal system during late Pleistocene times apparently provided a source of pore water which enhanced the hydrothermal alteration of the summit of Citlaltépetl and was the origin of most of the water for the lahar. This deposit and several others suggest that glaciated volcanoes are sites where hydrothermal alteration and resulting cohesive lahars are most likely. Although cohesive lahars and debris avalanches both have origins as sector collapses, cohesive lahars are more mobile than similar-sized debris avalanches. Thus potential hazard of edifice collapse at glaciated volcanoes, especially those with large volumes of hydrothermally altered rock, includes the possibility of large-volume cohesive lahars.

Hepatotoxicity of chronic high dose administration of acetaminophen to mice. A critical review and implications for hazard assessment.

To evaluate the degree of toxicity to the liver of chronic administration of acetaminophen, the slides from two independent previously reported experiments using different strains of mouse were reviewed and compared. One experiment was performed using B6C3F1 mice of both sexes which were fed 0.3, 0.6 or 1.25% acetaminophen in the diet for 41 weeks. The other was conducted with NIH general purpose mice of both sexes which were fed 1.1% acetaminophen in the diet for 48 weeks. In both experiments, at the levels of 1.1 or 1.25%, the drug produced severe liver injury characterized by centrilobular necrosis which was comparable in both males and females at the end of the experiments. The findings show that ingestion of dietary levels of greater than 1% leads to chronic hepatotoxicity to mice. The import of these findings in interpretation of carcinogenicity studies of acetaminophen is discussed.

The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906. State Earthquake Investigation Committee A. C. Lawson

<i>The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906</i>. State Earthquake Investigation Committee A. C. Lawson