Implications For Climate Policy Research Articles

Decoupling with(out) outsourcing? Quantifying emissions embodied in BRI trade with implications for climate policy

We empirically examine the trade-related environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) using a novel technology-adjusted consumption-based accounting in addition to traditional accounting schemes and data from the Eora Global database from 1995 to 2015. We find that BRI trade accounted for 3-quarters (5.01 Gt) of global traded emissions in 2015. BRI countries account for 60%–75% of (non-BRI) developed-world consumption-based emissions. While developing (BRI) countries import 8%–42% of their consumption needs from China, they account for half of the China’s imported emissions. Our analysis reveals that technological adjustments in export sectors significantly alter the magnitude of outsourcing and emission responsibility assigned to both BRI and non-BRI countries. This leads to a notable shift in net trade balance emissions. We find that developed (BRI and non-BRI) countries have reduced emissions primarily through decoupling and outsourcing. Our findings demonstrate that BRI trade has diverse environmental effects; exports from more carbon-efficient (BRI and non-BRI) developed countries are likely to reduce (or avoid) emissions in developing (BRI) countries and vice versa. An important implication of these findings is that China’s BRI-led outsourcing and investments have the potential to yield significant environmental benefits by accelerating the transition to renewable energy in developing countries participating in the initiative.

The size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment scenarios at net-zero CO2

Residual emissions are an important category of analysis in climate targets and scenarios, describing the emissions that would need to be compensated by carbon dioxide removal to reach net zero CO2. This article sheds light on the size and composition of residual emissions in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios at net-zero CO2, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th assessment report (AR6) scenario database. I find that IAMs depict residual greenhouse gas emissions levels of 16 [12–26] GtCO2e/yr across below 1.5 °C, below 1.5 °C with overshoot, and below 2 °C scenarios—representing gross emissions reductions of 72 [55–78] % from 2020 to the point of net zero CO2. Emissions from livestock, agriculture, transport, waste and industrial processes remain most prevalent at net zero, with scenario averages tending to depict significantly lower reduction rates and higher residual emissions than those recently published in corporate net zero standards. Nonetheless, scenarios depict a wide range of outcomes across all of these ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors, with lower values characterised by demand-side shifts in the food and energy system, alongside the rapid electrification of end-use sectors and limits on CDR scaling. Current scenario reporting does not easily facilitate the calculation of gross emissions from the AR6 database, which would be a prerequisite to a more systematic exploration of the residual emissions frontier and its implications for climate policy.

Phasing out carbon not coal? Identifying coal lock-in sources in Japan’s power utilities

ABSTRACT Lock-in to existing assets and business practices is a major obstacle to the global objective of phasing out coal-fired power to accelerate decarbonization towards Paris Agreement goals. Japan has attracted attention in previous literature, with several studies demonstrating how market and political conditions have propelled investments in new coal-fired power plants while raising barriers to achieving a phase-out. But in addition to market-level conditions, firm-level characteristics – including assets, commitments, investment behaviour and future-oriented innovation activities – are also critical determinants of lock-in vulnerability. To deepen understanding of how such firm-level dynamics might affect the power industry, this empirical study takes the case of ten incumbent utilities in Japan to identify and compare potential sources of coal lock-in. We leverage diverse quantitative and qualitative data to assess the state of: (1) management, assets and operational factors; and (2) the development and deployment of next-generation coal technologies. Through this two-fold approach, we demonstrate how current conditions and future-oriented activities are likely to reinforce tendencies to continue using coal in coming decades, thereby hampering the emergence of phase-out ambitions. These findings harbour important implications for climate policy and the urgent need to end coal burning in the power sector.

The effects of carbon inequality on economic growth: new evidence from MENA region.

This study emphasizes the impact of carbon inequality on the economic growth of Middle East-North African (MENA) economies from 1995 to 2019. By employing the panel cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lags method (Chudik and Pesaran 2015), we explored the effect of the carbon footprint of top-income classes on economic performance in both the short and long term. The empirical results assume that carbon inequality indicators boost economic growth in the short and long run. In other words, economic growth may be slowed when carbon inequality is reduced. Our study has important implications for climate policy in the MENA region. In this context, relying on a carbon tax can increase business costs and reduce investment incentives leading to a decline in growth. Governments should adopt a more comprehensive approach incorporating other policy instruments such as nudging techniques, financial incentives, and public awareness campaigns. As a result, wealthy people will be encouraged to promote sustainable choices and behaviors that guarantee the progressive transition to low-carbon activities without hurting economic growth.

Does recalling energy efficiency measures reduce subsequent climate-friendly behavior? An experimental study of moral licensing rebound effects

Energy efficiency measures are a key element in the fight against climate change. However, their effectiveness is threatened by so-called rebound effects—behavioral changes that lead to increased use and thus to lower-than-expected absolute savings. The moral licensing bias might cause rebound effects on the individual level: When people implement energy efficiency measures, they may feel that they have done something good for the climate and thus license themselves to less climate-friendly behavior later on. We test this prediction with three pre-registered experiments (total n = 2315). While our manipulated efficiency does increase the feeling of having done something good for the climate, no negative effects emerge on subsequent climate-friendly behavior—contrary to the predictions derived from the moral licensing literature. Climate-friendly behavior is thus not hampered by prior energy efficiency behavior; rather, demographics (women and older people act in a more climate-friendly manner) and environmental attitude determine it. Our results imply that the literature suggesting moral licensing is probably not transferable to the field of energy efficiency, and thus moral licensing may not lead to rebound effects in this context. We discuss possible explanations, implications for climate policy making, and needs for future research.

Back to the Stone Age: Europe's Mainstream Right and Climate Change

AbstractWhile populist radical right parties’ stances on climate change are well‐researched, accounts of Europe's mainstream right parties’ actions in this policy area are less common. This article provides a survey of the approach of four European centre‐right parties—the Christian Democratic Union in Germany, the Moderate Party in Sweden, the People's Party in Spain and the Austrian People's Party—to climate change in recent years. It examines some of the key strategic challenges that mainstream right parties are facing and their implications for climate policy, finding evidence of common approaches among this party family to climate policy.

Structural attribution of emissions along the global supply chain and implications for climate policy

AbstractTo develop and implement effective policies to mitigate climate change, it is important to understand the emission profile of sectors that comprise the network of global supply chains. Focusing on the relationship between sectors’ positions in the global supply chain, this study develops a structural position analysis framework based on input–output analysis. Our framework reveals the highest‐priority sectors and transactions, and the best strategies for CO2 emission reduction in the global supply chain. The strategies identified focus on cross‐border transactions and highlight the need for inter‐sectoral and international collaboration. The results indicate that the United States and China have different priorities and characteristics (even vis‐à‐vis the same industry), and that joint emission reduction policies should be coordinated to take advantage of each country's emission reduction potential. Our findings suggest that, in the United States and Europe, policies to promote the reduction of direct emissions from production of goods for exports through carbon taxes are important. Contrarily, in Asian countries, carbon emissions originate mainly from intermediate goods trades, suggesting the need for mandatory life cycle assessment reporting and emissions disclosure. Our analytical framework thus proposes specific policies that could effectively reduce specific sectors' and transactions’ carbon footprints.

“Our Way of Life is not up for Negotiation!”: Climate Interventions in the Shadow of ‘Societal Security’

Abstract ‘Climate security’ conventionally refers to climate change being a multiplier of threats to national security, international peace and stability, or human security. Here we identify a hitherto overlooked inverted climate security discourse in which climate responses (rather than climate impacts) are held to pose an existential threat to dominant fossil fuel-dependent ‘ways of life’, justifying extraordinary measures—societal climate security. In doing so, we seek to make three novel contributions. First, we set out how societal securitization applies beyond a national frame and in relation to transnational threats like climate change, arguing it promotes not just exceptional measures but also palliative ones that avoid challenging incumbent identities. Second, we draw on recent evidence and extant literatures to show that 'societal climate security' already has substantial material emanations in the form of exceptional measures, deployed domestically against climate protestors and externally against climate migrants, in the name of societal order and cohesion. Third, we turn to wider climate policy implications, arguing that societal securitization tilts policy agendas further away from rapid mitigation pathways and toward promissory measures such as ‘geoengineering’—schemes for future, large-scale technological interventions in the climate system—that may appear less threatening to established societal identities. While there are sound ecological and humanitarian rationales to research such technologies, in the context of societal securitization these can be appropriated to defend dominant ‘ways of life’ instead. To conclude, we reflect on how, were it attempted, deployment of solar geoengineering for societal security would affect security politics more widely.

Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach

<hr /> <p><big>This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.</big></p>

A Relationship between Climate Finance and Climate Risk: Evidence from the South Asian Region

South Asia is the most vulnerable region in the context of global warming, climate change, and climate risk. Climate finance is the most useful tool for combating climate challenges worldwide. The study explores the present picture of climate finance in South Asian (SA) countries. The study uses multilateral development bank (MDB), Green Climate Fund (GCF), and Germanwatch supplied data from 2011 to 2021. Under the theoretical lens of institutional capacity development, the study attempts to correlate climate finance and climate risk. The study indicates an increasing trend of MBDs’ and the GCF’s climate finance in many countries worldwide. The study finds that MDBs’ total global climate finance is USD 446,977 million, while the SA region has received USD 59,301 million since 2011. It also reports that MDBs provide 77% and 23% of the money to the mitigation and adaptation areas. Moreover, the study reports that, after COVID-19, MDBs substantially increased the amount of global climate financing, but this increase was not seen in the SA region. Our climate risk data indicate that most of the SA countries are highly long-term climate risky and lose, on average, 0.378% of GDP. The correlation matrix finds a negative and significant correlation between climate finance and long-term and yearly climate risk. The study identifies that the region’s climate financing flow of money is not rationally distributed based on the short-run and long-run climate risks. The study presumes that more climate finance would be the most effective mechanism to mitigate climate risk. Therefore, SA region leadership drastically requires a holistic framework to address the prevailing climate problems and to ensure regional coordination and cooperation toward climate finance and policies. The research findings have significant implications for climate policy and climate finance.

Multilevel intergroup conflict at the core of climate (in)justice: Psychological challenges and ways forward

AbstractAlthough developed countries have been historically responsible for causing climate change, developing countries are more vulnerable to its current and future effects and being asked to commit to levels of climate action that exceed their responsibilities and capabilities. Climate change exacerbates existing social inequities by disproportionately impacting certain groups (including women, racial minorities, and the poor) more than others. Powerful institutions such as the government and the academy have a responsibility to alter this course and advance climate justice but are themselves marred by inequities. Given these disparities, the question of how the burden of climate change mitigation should be justly distributed amongst stakeholders is of paramount importance to international and domestic climate negotiations. Insights from the social identity and group processes literatures explain how experiences of inequity along geographical and sociodemographic dimensions generate identities and groups. As group members, people are sensitive to threats to the ingroup, experience collective emotions on behalf of the group, and differentially apply morality to in‐ versus outgroups. Members are also incentivized to protect and further their group's interests relative to outgroups. Social psychology offers some promising avenues of research for potential solutions to mitigate the multilevel intergroup conflict posing as a barrier to climate justice. Climate governance recommendations to policymakers and negotiators include incentivizing integrative solutions and fully considering the justice implications of climate policy. Climate scholars are encouraged to pursue interdisciplinary collaborations, improve diversity within the academy and in research samples, and prioritize climate adaptation in developing contexts.This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Climate Change and Global Justice

Climate policy costs of spatially unbalanced growth in electricity demand: the case of datacentres in Ireland

ABSTRACT We investigate the power system and climate policy implications of the anticipated expansion in electricity demand from datacentres. We perform a joint optimization of Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning for the island of Ireland considering uncertainty in future datacentre growth under various climate policies. Datacentre expansion imposes significant extra costs on the power system. A renewable energy target is more costly than a technology-neutral carbon reduction policy due to the restriction to invest solely in renewable energy, and the divergence in costs increases non-linearly in electricity demand. A carbon reduction policy is more robust to uncertainties in projected demand than a renewable policy. The increased demand from datacentres, which is relatively constant, is best matched by a power supply with constant output, generally fossil-fuelled power plants, potentially in combination with carbon capture and sequestration technology, than variable supply. Datacentre demand increases power system costs by 6% under a carbon reduction policy, and by 9% to 15% under renewable energy targets. However, the abatement cost of carbon under renewable targets decreases at higher levels of demand, while the opposite is true for the abatement cost under technology-neutral targets. High renewable targets crowd out other low-carbon options, namely CCS, leading to a higher cost solution for the same reduction in emissions, although this result is sensitive to increases in fossil fuel prices. The results suggest that climate-related energy policy should focus on technology-neutral carbon reduction policies. The climate impacts of datacentres on energy demand and thus supply requirements should also feature in climate and energy policy discussions.

Who flies but never drives? Highlighting diversity among high emitters for passenger transport in England

Energy research is paying increasing attention to inequalities in climate emissions and to the disproportionate contribution of ‘high emitters’ to national emissions, notably from transport. While the individual and household factors associated with high overall emissions are well-known, there is a need for a more nuanced understanding of who ‘high emitters’ across different domains are and what drives their emissions. This paper highlights diversity within the group of ‘high emitters’ for transport, based on survey data on English residents' car and air travel. We define groups characterised by high emissions from car travel, air travel, or both. We focus in particular on individuals with ‘dissonant’ profiles – i.e., combining low emissions for one mode and high emissions for the other. These nuances have been overlooked to date, but they are important from a policy perspective. We describe the identified groups with bivariate and multivariate methods, considering socio-economic attributes, neighbourhood characteristics, social network dispersion, and environmental attitudes. We find that individuals with ‘dissonant’ emission patterns account for up to 20 % of the population, and up to 30 % of emissions from car and air travel. Those who combine low car emissions with high emissions from air travel are more likely to be urban residents, higher-income groups, younger adults, females, migrants, and people with dispersed social networks. Individuals with the opposite profile of high car and low air travel emissions tend to be male, middle-aged, and long-distance commuters living in car-dependent areas. We conclude by discussing implications for climate policy in the transport sector.

Stranded Assets: Research Gaps and Implications for Climate Policy

Many types of capital stocks—natural, physical, and human—stand to lose value because of climate policy and to become “stranded.” The owners of such assets will resist climate policies. We survey the recent climate economics literature and highlight research gaps related to stranded assets. In line with recent literature in political science, we argue that economists can provide more effective policy recommendations by putting greater emphasis on the distributional consequences of asset stranding. Our recommended policies focus on targeting new capital stocks related to energy production and consumption: banning fossil-intensive investment and encouraging investment into renewable and energy-efficient capital. These policies may face less resistance than price-based mechanisms and could improve the credibility of future carbon pricing.

Correcting Estimates of Electric Vehicle Emissions Abatement: Implications for Climate Policy

Transportation electrification is viewed by many as a cornerstone for climate change mitigation, with the ultimate vision to phase out conventional vehicles entirely. In a world with only electric vehicles (EVs), transportation pollution would be primarily determined by the electricity grid composition. For the foreseeable future, however, environmental benefits of EVs must be measured relative to the (likely gasoline) car that would have been bought instead. This so-called “counterfactual” vehicle cannot be observed, but its fuel economy can be estimated. A quasi-experiment in California allows us to show that subsidized buyers of EVs would have, on average, purchased relatively fuel-efficient cars had they not gone electric. The actual incremental pollution abatement arising from EVs today is thus substantially smaller than one would predict using the fleet average as the counterfactual vehicle. We discuss implications for climate policy and how to accurately reflect EV choice in integrated assessment models.

Faithful Stewards of God’s Creation? Swedish Evangelical Denominations and Climate Change

Studies from the United States (U.S.) show that opposition to climate policy is strong among some Christian groups, especially White evangelical Protestants. Much of this opposition is channelled through organisations such as the Cornwall Alliance, which argue against climate measures on religious, economic and what they claim to be science-based grounds. In the present study, we investigated to what extent these convictions were present among Swedish evangelical denominations. Representatives from the Evangelical Free Church, the Pentecostal Alliance, the Swedish Alliance Mission, and the Seventh-day Adventist Church were interviewed to identify the denominations’ views on the scientific underpinnings of climate change and the moral implications of climate policy. Our data show that the denominations’ views differ markedly from those expressed by climate-oppositional evangelical groups in the U.S. The denominations held homogenous views on the legitimacy of climate science, expressed a clear biblical mandate for climate policy based on the notion of human stewardship, and believed that climate change was inextricably linked to poverty and, thus, had to be addressed. Our results point to the need for further studies on the factors behind acceptance and denial of climate science within and between faith-based and other communities in different countries.

Why marginal CO2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy

Marginal emissions of CO2 from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating climate policies that rely on shifts in electricity demand or supply. This paper provides estimates of marginal CO2 emissions from US electricity generation using the most recently available and comprehensive data. The estimates vary by region, hour of the day, and year to year over the last decade. We identify an important and somewhat counterintuitive finding: While average emissions have decreased substantially over the last decade (28% nationally), marginal emissions have increased (7% nationally). We show that underlying these trends is primarily a shift toward greater reliance on coal to satisfy marginal electricity use. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration's target of having electric vehicles (EVs) make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half of the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles on the road. Moreover, using average rather than marginal emissions to predict the impacts significantly overestimates the emission benefits. Overall, we find that the promise of EVs for reducing emissions depends, to a large degree, on complementary policies that decarbonize both average and marginal emissions in the electricity sector.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Eco-Performance at Farm Level: A Parametric Approach

Agriculture is an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus contributes considerably to global warming. However, farms can vary substantially in terms of their climatic impact. So far, most policies aiming at reducing GHG emissions from farming have largely been based on findings at the aggregate level, without taking farm heterogeneity properly into account. This study seeks to provide a better understanding of the GHG mitigation potential at the micro-level. We develop a comprehensible analytical framework for analyzing economic-ecological performance by way of stochastic frontier analysis. We introduce the concept of emission efficiency, where we distinguish between persistent and time-varying efficiency. We further analyze farms with respect to their emission-performance dynamics. Results from our (2005–2014) empirical application from Bavaria—an important region for the EU – show considerable differences in farm-level GHG emissions across different farm types. The same applies to emission efficiencies. Overall, emission performance improved over time. The results have important climate-policy implications as they help to provide better target measures for mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture, without compromising economic performance levels.

The cost of mitigation revisited

Estimates of economic implications of climate policy are important inputs into policy-making. Despite care to contextualize quantitative assessments of mitigation costs, one strong view outside academic climate economics is that achieving Paris Agreement goals implies sizable macroeconomic losses. Here, we argue that this notion results from unwarranted simplification or omission of the complexities of quantifying mitigation costs, which generates ambiguity in communication and interpretation. We synthesize key factors influencing mitigation cost estimates to guide interpretation of estimates, for example from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and suggest ways to improve the underlying models. We propose alternatives for the scenario design framework, the framing of mitigation costs and the methods used to derive them, to better inform public debate and policy. Assessing the cost of climate change mitigation is essential to policy-making, yet for many the perception remains that meeting climate goals will entail economic loss. This Perspective unpacks key aspects of mitigation cost estimates to clarify interpretation and discussion of costs.

Future climate impacts on forest growth and implications for carbon sequestration through reforestation in southeast Australia

Reforestation is identified as one of the key nature-based solutions to deliver carbon dioxide removal, which will be required to achieve the net zero ambition of the Paris Agreement. However, the potential for sequestration through reforestation is uncertain because climate change is expected to affect the drivers of forest growth. This study used the process-based 3-PG model to investigate the effects of climate change on development of above-ground biomass (AGB), as an indicator of forest growth, in regenerating native forests in southeast Australia. We investigated how changing climate affects AGB, by combining historical data and future climate projections based on 25 global climate models (GCMs) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We found that the ensemble means of 25 GCMs indicated an increase in temperature with large variations in projected rainfall. When these changes were applied in 3-PG, we found an increase in the simulated AGB by as much as 25% under a moderate emission scenario. This estimate rose to 51% under a high emission scenario by the end of the 21st century across nine selected sites in southeast Australia. However, when CO2 response was excluded, we found a large decrease in AGB at the nine sites. Our modelling results showed that the modelled response to elevated atmospheric CO2 (the CO2 fertilization effect) was largely responsible for the simulated increase of AGB (%). We found that the estimates of future changes in the AGB were subject to uncertainties originating from climate projections, future emission scenarios, and the assumed response to CO2 fertilization. Such modelling simulation improves understanding of possible climate change impacts on forest growth and the inherent uncertainties in estimating mitigation potential through reforestation, with implications for climate policy in Australia.