Imperfection Sensitivity Research Articles

Low cost and real-time surveillance of enteric infection and diarrhoeal disease using rapid diagnostic tests in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh

BackgroundReal-time disease surveillance is an important component of infection control in at-risk populations. However, data on cases or from lab testing is often not available in many low-resource settings. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT), including immunochromatographic assays, may provide a low cost, expedited source of infection data.MethodsWe conducted a pilot survey-based prevalence mapping study of enteric infection in Camp 24 of the camps for the forcibly displaced Rohingya population from Myanmar in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. We randomly sampled the population and collected and tested stool from under-fives for eight pathogens using RDTs in January–March 2021 and September–October 2021. A Bayesian geospatial statistical model allowing for imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the tests was adapted.ResultsWe collected and tested 396 and 181 stools in the two data collection rounds. Corrected prevalence estimates ranged from 0.5% (Norovirus) to 27.4% (Giardia). Prevalence of Escherichia coli O157, Campylobacter, and Cryptosporidium were predicted to be higher in the high density area of the camp with relatively high probability (70–95%), while Adenovirus, Norovirus, and Rotavirus were lower in the areas with high water chlorination. Clustering of cases of Giardia and Shigella was also observed, although associated with relatively high uncertainty.ConclusionsWith an appropriate correction for diagnostic performance RDTs can be used to generate reliable prevalence estimates, maps, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates at a significantly lower cost than lab-based studies, providing a useful approach for disease surveillance in these settings.

On the imperfection sensitivity and design of buckling critical wind turbine towers

Wind turbine towers pose major challenges for design engineers due to their complex geometry, nonlinear material behavior and imperfection sensitivity. In service, these thin-walled shells are burdened by a combination of complex load cases and prone to buckling. In fact, one of the main design drivers of wind turbine towers is stability failure for which often the design recommendation of the EN-1993-1-6 are used.Recently an international shell buckling exercise was caried out by the team behind the EN-1993-1-6 design standard. Within this exercise 29 teams from academia and industry were asked to perform a series of linear and non-linear finite element simulations of an 8-MW multi-strake steel wind turbine support tower segment. In general, the linear and nonlinear analyzes posed no challenge for the shell buckling experts from around the world. However, the imperfection sensitivity analysis results scattered significantly among the participants. In addition, there was little consensus as to whether the given tower design is actually safe.The authors, whose background is aerospace engineering, participated in this exercise and show in this article how they overcome the challenges of this typical civil engineering problem. Among linear and non-linear analyzes the authors show the results of state-of-the-art shell buckling concepts which were developed for aerospace shells like interstage tanks and adapters but are also applicable to wind turbine towers.

Buckling Analysis of Variable Stiffness Composite Cylindrical Shells Under Axial Compression Considering Imperfection Sensitivity

Thin-walled composite cylindrical shells are nowadays widely used as primary structures in the aerospace industry. The so-called variable stiffness (VS) composite cylindrical shells with flexible stiffness tailoring characteristics have been made possible by existing AFP techniques. Considering the inherent imperfection sensitivity property of axially compressed thin-walled cylindrical shells, the buckling behaviors of the axially compressed VS composite cylindrical shells with initial geometric imperfections and delamination imperfections are investigated respectively in this paper. The design buckling loads of the axially compressed VS composite cylindrical shells are first determined by the probing method, which is verified by comparing with the existing test data and numerical simulation results. Additionally, a parametric study is conducted to investigate the effects of delamination imperfections on the buckling loads. The constraint delamination sizes of the VS composite cylindrical shells based on the design buckling load in this paper are given. Furthermore, the effects of continuously variable fiber angles on the buckling loads are investigated considering the imperfection sensitivity. The specific VS composite cylindrical shells with both high- buckling loads and low-imperfection sensitivity are obtained. Results indicate that the effects of imperfection sensitivity need to be carefully considered in buckling design of the axially compressed VS composite cylindrical shells.

Simulating the effects of geometric imperfections on the buckling of axially compressed cylindrical shells through reducing localized stiffness

Thin-walled cylindrical shells are prone to buckling under axial compression. The load-carrying capacity of the shells can thus be significantly reduced. It's well known that the buckling loads of axially compressed cylindrical shells are quite sensitive to the initial geometric imperfections. Even though the magnitudes of these imperfections are relatively small, the corresponding buckling loads can be significantly reduced compared to the perfect shells. In this paper, the effects of geometric imperfections on the buckling loads are equivalently simulated by reducing localized stiffness of the cylindrical shells. Firstly, the method for simulating the effects of geometric imperfections on the buckling loads of cylindrical shells is introduced in detail. Then, the proposed method is used to simulate the effects of single dimple imperfection and multiple dimple imperfections on the buckling loads of cylindrical shells. Results show that the buckling loads and load-displacement curves of the shells with single and multiple dimple imperfections can both be well simulated by the localized stiffness reduction method. Furthermore, the measured geometric imperfections from manufactured cylindrical shells are investigated. The numerical results simulated by the proposed method are also verified by the shell models with real measured geometric imperfections and the experimental results from the literature. The applicability and reliability of the proposed equivalent method in dealing with complex imperfection configurations can thus be validated. Results show that the proposed equivalent method is suitable for simulating various geometric imperfections of the cylindrical shells. It is promising to be applied as an efficient tool to quantify the imperfection sensitivity of buckling loads and provide a new solution for buckling analysis of cylindrical shells.

The bounded intelligence of AI: Superficiality and deceivability

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is typically designed to replace or augment human beings in making and executing decisions. In the domain of organizational management, AI has already found wide applications in many areas such as HR functions, marketing campaigns, competitive analysis, and strategy formulations, exerting increasing impacts on a host of executives and management professionals. Accurate and timely replicating or capturing the know-how of human decisions and actions becomes imperative, as AI has to be, at least as intelligent as, or even more intelligent than, those human actors whose data are being fed to AI during its training and learning iterations. Just as human beings are subject to bounded rationality due to their limited capacities in information processing, AI, too, is subject to bounded intelligence, in the sense that it could appear not as smart as expected, due to its limited capacities in replicating and capturing human expertise, to say nothing of augmenting or extending it. Such bounded intelligence of AI hinges on two underlying factors: superficiality and deceivability. Superficiality refers to the inability of AI to fully replicate human expertise during its learning process due to natural or technical barriers such as imperfect capturability, relational embeddedness, and time sensitivity. Deceivability refers to the inability of AI to accurately capture human expertise during its learning process due to human-actor-created barriers such as passive evasion, deliberate manipulation, and malicious sabotage. Understanding such boundedness of AI and the specific mechanisms of superficiality and deceivability will help us better appreciate the usefulness and limitations of AI and take measures to both remedy and utilize the bounded intelligence of AI.

Experimental validation of the buckling behavior of unreinforced and reinforced composite conical-cylindrical shells for launch-vehicles

Conical-cylindrical shells are common geometries in launch-vehicle structures as stage adapters and payload adapters, and they are susceptible to buckling due to their large radius-to-thickness ratios. Buckling design guidance is available but it is limited for conical and cylindrical shells. There is no available buckling design guidance for conical-cylindrical shells. This paper presents the validation of two finite element models used to successfully predict the buckling behavior of a composite conical-cylindrical shell with and without reinforcement tested in two separate campaigns. The laminate design for the first test campaign consisted of a quasi-isotropic layup. For the second test campaign, additional composite plies were applied to reinforce the transition region of the original laminate. The work presented demonstrates the ability to predict the buckling behavior of a composite conical-cylindrical shells with two different designs, which may aid in creating buckling design guidance for conical-cylindrical shells. Additionally, this paper shows that there is no appreciable benefit to adding reinforcement to the transition region if the intent is to increase the buckling load, due to the fact reinforcement brings increased buckling imperfection sensitivity to the shell.

MUC5AC immunoreactivity in scattered tumor cells is useful for diagnosing CIC-rearranged sarcoma.

CIC-rearranged sarcoma is an aggressive round cell sarcoma, and an alternative ATXN1/ATXN1L fusion has been reported. Diagnosis may be difficult, and molecular assays may suffer from imperfect sensitivity. Characteristic histology and ETV4 immunohistochemical positivity are diagnostically helpful. However, ETV4 staining is unavailable in most laboratories. Here, we explored the diagnostic utility of MUC5AC immunohistochemistry in CIC-rearranged sarcomas. All 30 cases, except one, of CIC-rearranged sarcomas and 2 ATXN1-rearranged sarcomas were positive for MUC5AC, although the number of immunopositive cells was generally low (< 5%) in most samples, representing a characteristic scattered pattern. The only MUC5AC-negative case had the lowest tumor volume. Among the 110 mimicking round cell malignancies, 12 tumors showed MUC5AC positivity, including occasional cases of synovial sarcoma and small cell carcinoma, whereas the remaining 98 samples were negative. Despite its lower specificity than that of ETV4 and sparse reactivity that requires careful interpretation, MUC5AC may serve as a useful marker for CIC/ATXN1-rearranged sarcoma because of its wider accessibility.

Wind buckling analysis of cylindrical shells with various geometric imperfections

This study addresses the complexity of buckling behavior in cylindrical shells subjected to non-uniform wind loading, emphasizing the significant impact of geometric parameters on buckling patterns. Cylinders with varying aspect ratios exhibit distinct linear and nonlinear buckling behaviors, complicating the determination of the most detrimental structural imperfections across different geometries. Notably, imperfections affecting stocky cylinders may be less impactful for slender ones. This paper introduced equations for calculating linear critical pressures under wind loading, followed by an extensive numerical analysis assessing the imperfection sensitivity in anchored cylindrical shells of uniform thickness with diverse aspect ratios. Two types of geometric imperfections were employed to assess their influence on the nonlinear buckling strength of cylinders with varying geometries. Results demonstrate that eigenmode imperfections predominantly compromise the buckling strength of stocky cylinders, whereas nonlinear incremental mode imperfections significantly influence the nonlinear critical pressures of intermediate-length and slender cylinders. Consequently, empirical expressions have been formulated to calculate the imperfection reduction factor, offering a precise evaluation of nonlinear buckling pressures in imperfect cylinders under wind loading.

Effects of nonlinearities and geometric imperfections on multistability and deformation localization in wrinkling films on planar substrates

Compressed elastic films on soft substrates release part of their strain energy by wrinkling, which represents a loss of symmetry, characterized by a pitchfork bifurcation. Its development is well understood at the onset of supercritical bifurcation, but not beyond, or in the case of subcritical bifurcation. This is mainly due to nonlinearities and the extreme imperfection sensitivity. In both types of bifurcations, the energy–displacement diagrams that can characterize an energy landscape are non-convex, which is notoriously difficult to determine numerically or experimentally, let alone analytically. To gain an elementary understanding of such potential energy landscapes, we take a thin beam theory suitable for analyzing large displacements under small strains and significantly reduce its complexity by reformulating it in terms of the tangent rotation angle. This enables a comprehensive analytical and numerical analysis of wrinkling elastic films on planar substrates, which are effective stiffening and/or softening due to either geometric or material nonlinearities. We also validate our findings experimentally. We explicitly show how effective stiffening nonlinear behavior (e.g., due to substrate or membrane deformations) leads to a supercritical post-bifurcation response, makes the energy landscape non-convex through energy barriers causing multistability, which is extremely problematic for numerical computation. Moreover, this type of nonlinearity promotes uni-modal, uniformly distributed, periodic deformation patterns. In contrast, nonlinear effective softening behavior leads to subcritical post-bifurcation behavior, similarly divides the energy landscape by energy barriers and conversely promotes localization of deformations. With our theoretical model we can thus explain an experimentally observed phenomenon that in structures with effective softening followed by an effective stiffening behavior, the symmetry is initially broken by localizing the deformation and later restored by forming periodic, distributed deformation patterns as the load is increased. Finally, we show that initial imperfections can significantly alter the local or global energy-minimizing deformation pattern and completely remove some energy barriers. We envision that this knowledge can be extrapolated and exploited to convexify extremely divergent energy landscapes of more sophisticated systems, such as wrinkling compressed films on curved substrates (e.g., on cylinders and spheres) and that it will enable elementary analysis and the development of specialized numerical tools.

Local damage and imperfection sensitivities of pyramidal core sandwich cylinders

Local damage and imperfections may affect the loading capacity of truss core sandwich cylinders. This study develops a numerical model to investigate the effects of missing lattice struts, unbound nodes, openings, and eigenmode-shape imperfections on the buckling and post-buckling behavior of pyramidal core sandwich cylinders. Results from the numerical model show that the pyramidal core sandwich cylinder is sensitive to missing struts and unbound nodes when local buckling is the main failure model. Critical loads show a gradual decrease as the opening damage increases. Pyramidal core sandwich cylinders are not sensitive to eigenmode-shape imperfections compared to the equivalent single-walled shells.

The influence of R/t-ratio on the imperfection sensitivity of the buckling load of thin-walled CFRP cylindrical shells

Thin-walled cylindrical shells under axial compression load are prone to buckling. The influencing factors leading to a reduction of the buckling load are a major design challenge. The sensitivity to imperfection increases with rising slenderness. In literature, cylinders with the same parameters and different slenderness are rarely tested in a larger number of samples. In this contribution, seven cylindrical shells, six of them nominally identical, are tested on two different test rigs and compared with twelve specimens with a smaller radius and same wall thickness from a previous series of tests. It is shown how the imperfection sensitivity is dependent on the R/t-ratio. Additionally, it is demonstrated how the quality of the test set ups corresponds with the achieved buckling load. Finally, the suitability of selected design approaches is determined based on the test results. Based on that, recommendations for the choice of a suitable approach are given.

Imperfection Sensitivity Detection in Pultruded Columns Using Machine Learning and Synthetic Data

Experimental and theoretical solutions have shown that imperfections in wide-flanged structural columns may reduce the failure load of the column by as much as 30% with respect to that of a perfect column. Therefore, the early detection and prevention of such imperfections, which would likely reduce the load capacity of a structure, are critical for avoiding catastrophic failure. In the present article, we show how machine learning may be used to detect imperfection sensitivity in pultruded columns using observable column deformations occurring at loads as low as 30% of the design load. Abaqus simulations were used to capture the behavior of such columns of various lengths under service load. The deformations found from the simulations were used to train the machine learning algorithm. Similar deformations could be easily collected from in-service columns using inexpensive instrumentation. With over 3000 test cases, 95% accuracy in the correct detection of imperfection sensitivity was found. We anticipate that the proposed machine learning pipeline will enhance structural health monitoring, providing timely warning for potentially compromised structures.

The Axial Compressive Response of Thin, Elastic, Polygonal Shells

Abstract Thin-walled cylindrical shell structures are revisited with the objective of increasing the axial load-carrying capacity. By using the postbuckling reserve of rectangular plates, polygonal shells are studied, which combines the response of a plate-like structure with a shell-like structure. These “plate-shells” are shown to be imperfection insensitive for a range of polygonal shell designs. Furthermore, their collapse load exceeds the corresponding load for a circular cylindrical shell. These results are a significant departure from the well-known imperfection sensitivity in the axial compressive response of cylindrical shells.

Quantifying the HIV reservoir with dilution assays and deep viral sequencing.

People living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy often have undetectable virus levels by standard assays, but "latent" HIV still persists in viral reservoirs. Eliminating these reservoirs is the goal of HIV cure research. The quantitative viral outgrowth assay (QVOA) is commonly used to estimate the reservoir size, that is, the infectious units per million (IUPM) of HIV-persistent resting CD4+ T cells. A new variation of the QVOA, the ultra deep sequencing assay of the outgrowth virus (UDSA), was recently developed that further quantifies the number of viral lineages within a subset of infected wells. Performing the UDSA on a subset of wells provides additional information that can improve IUPM estimation. This paper considers statistical inference about the IUPM from combined dilution assay (QVOA) and deep viral sequencing (UDSA) data, even when some deep sequencing data are missing. Methods are proposed to accommodate assays with wells sequenced at multiple dilution levels and with imperfect sensitivity and specificity, and a novel bias-corrected estimator is included for small samples. The proposed methods are evaluated in a simulation study, applied to data from the University of North Carolina HIV Cure Center, and implemented in the open-source R package SLDeepAssay.

Effects of circumferential weld-induced imperfections on the buckling behavior of fabricated steel toroidal shells

Recently, toroidal shells have increasingly been used in engineering applications owing to their excellent load-resistance characteristics. Weld shrinkage during manufacturing leads to deviations from the ideal shell geometry, which is an inevitable imperfection of fabricated steel toroidal shells. To the best of our knowledge, there are no existing studies on the buckling sensitivity of fabricated steel toroidal shells to circumferential weld-induced imperfections. This study presents a modified technique for modeling circumferential weld-induced imperfections, which is employed in a geometrically and materially nonlinear analysis with imperfections (GMNIA) to investigate the imperfection sensitivity of two steel toroidal shells fabricated using different manufacturing processes. The weld imperfections applied on the finite element models were evaluated by modifying Rotter and Teng's weld depression profiles. The procedures for modeling the weld depressions and solving the critical load using the Riks method in ABAQUS are reviewed in detail herein. The obtained buckling results exhibited good agreement with Blachut's experimental results. Furthermore, parametric studies on the relationship between the buckling knockdown factors and the amplitude-to-shell thickness ratios of the imperfect shells revealed the superiority of the fabricated toroidal shells, which can be very beneficial for engineering applications.

Estimation of odds ratio from group testing data with misclassified exposure.

For low prevalence disease, we consider estimation of the odds ratio for two specified groups of individuals using group testing data. Broadly the two groups may be classified as "the exposed" and "the unexposed." Often in observational studies, the exposure status is not correctly recorded. In addition, diagnostic tests are rarely completely accurate. The proposed model accounts for imperfect sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests along with the misclassification in the exposure status. For model identifiability, we make use of internal validation data, where a subsample of reasonably small size is selected from the original sample by simple random sampling without replacement. Pseudo-maximum likelihood method is employed for the estimation of the model parameters. The performance of group testing methodology is compared with individual testing for different parametric configurations. A limited data study related to COVID-19 prevalence is performed to illustrate themethodology.

Geometric imperfection sensitivity of nonlinear vibration responses of laminated beams under thermal shock

Initial geometric imperfections are bound to arise during a structure's service life or could emerge during the fabrication process. The exact influence of these geometric imperfections on the thermally-induced vibrations of the structure remains uncertain. This study represents the first endeavor to conduct a sensitivity analysis of geometric imperfections in the nonlinear vibration responses of laminated beams subjected to thermal shock. Considering uncoupled thermoelasticity theory, the temperature distribution is obtained using a one-dimensional Fourier-type transient heat conduction equation, and a nonlinear dynamic beam model accounting for initial geometric imperfections is developed based on the first-order shear deformation theory, Lagrange method, and Ritz method. An exact solution is implemented to capture the temporal temperature profile along the thickness of a beam subjected to a thermal boundary condition of the first kind (constant wall temperature). The sensitivity of various geometric imperfections to the nonlinear vibrations of laminated beams under thermal shocks is obtained using the Newmark scheme and Newton–Raphson iterative technique. A series of parametric studies is conducted to reveal the effects of different parameters on the nonlinear thermally induced vibration responses of the beams. Thermally induced vibration is shown to be sensitive to the initial geometric imperfections.

The imperfection sensitivity of trapezoid origami crash boxes

Diamond and trapezoid origami crash boxes (DOCBs and TOCBs, respectively) have attracted widespread attention due to their favorable mechanical properties. It has been confirmed that geometric imperfections significantly affect the crashworthiness of DOCBs. To explore the impact of imperfections on the crashworthiness of TOCBs, the TOCB profile was globally scanned, and the imperfections were characterized. It was verified that point and surface imperfections were the two main geometric imperfections. Based on the theoretical analysis of the deformation process of the TOCB, the imperfection-sensitivity mechanism was revealed. The experimental and numerical results validated that the point imperfections ratio (Ai /t, defined as the ratio between the point imperfections Ai in TOCB and the box thickness t) at the crease intersections were the main reason for the change in the TOCB deformation process, while the surface imperfections ρ affected the initial peak force. Numerical models with imperfections were established to compare the crashworthiness of the TOCB and DOCB with the same imperfections. When the surface imperfections ρ ≤ 0.12 and point imperfection ratio Ai/t ≤ 3.0, the average crushing force Fave of the TOCB decreased by 4.7 % and increased by 3.4 %, respectively. Correspondingly, those of the DOCB decreased by 5.7 % or 19.4 %, respectively; thus, the TOCB had a much lower imperfection sensitivity than the DOCB.

Bayesian true prevalence estimation of brucellosis in sheep, goats, cattle and camels in southeast regions of Iran.

Brucellosis is worldwide one of the most prevalent zoonotic diseases with serious public health hazard affecting domestic livestock and causing economic losses. Objective of this study is to estimate the true prevalence of brucellosis in livestock, specifically cattle, sheep, goats and camels, using a novel Bayesian latent class model, adjusting for the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the applied tests, where the second test was restricted only to first test-positive samples. Brucellosis seems more prevalent in goats and sheep, while the posterior medians and 95% probability intervals (95% PI) for the average true prevalence for sheep, goats, cattle and camels are 18% (4%-43%), 19% (7%-37%), 16% (5%-34%) and 18% (1%-48%) respectively. The study results indicate that brucellosis is highly endemic in Iran and crucial steps are needed to control and raise awareness about the high public health concern of the disease.

Milk as a diagnostic fluid to monitor viral diseases in dairy cattle.

Infectious viral diseases in dairy cattle have substantial implications for milk production, quality and overall animal health. Diagnostic tools providing reliable results are crucial for effective disease control at the farm and industry level. Pooled or bulk tank milk (BTM) can be used as a cost-effective aggregate sample to assess herd disease status in dairy farms. Detection of pathogens or specific antibodies in milk can be used for monitoring endemic diseases within-farm, region or country-level disease surveillance and to make informed decisions on farm management. The suitability of assays applied to pooled milk samples relies on validation data of fit-for-purpose tests to design an optimal testing strategy. Diverse approaches and variable scope of studies determining test accuracy need to be critically appraised before sourcing the parameters to design sampling strategies and interpreting surveys. Determining if BTM or pooled milk is the best approach for a disease management programme should carefully consider several aspects that will impact the accuracy and interpretation, for example, the size of the lactating herd, the risk of infection in the lactating and non-lactating groups, the expected within-herd prevalence, the duration of infection, the duration and concentration of antibodies in milk and use of vaccination. There are examples of tests on BTM samples providing efficient assessments of the herd disease status and supporting disease control programmes for viral diseases. However, challenges arise in pooled milk testing due to the need for accurate estimates of the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the assays. Integration of new biotechnologies could enhance multiplexing and data interpretation for comprehensive surveillance. The development of highly sensitive assays is necessary to meet the demands of larger dairy herds and improve disease detection and assessment.