Impact Of Changes Research Articles

Identification of the best viticultural areas by spatial optimisation. Application in New Zealand South Island in the context of climate change

The global winegrowing sector is under pressure due to the effects of global climate change. This is particularly true for New Zealand, where the wine industry is limited to a few regions. This study focuses on the South Island of New Zealand. It uses the Multi-objective Optimisation for Agrosystems (MOA) model to (i) investigate how potential exposure to climate risks and phenological stages will evolve under climate change, (ii) assess the suitability of current vineyards for viticulture in the future, and (iii) investigate potential emerging areas favourable for viticulture.The results show that a significant shift in the phenological stages of veraison and ripeness can be expected in the future due to the warming of the South Island of New Zealand. The projected phenological stages advancement is around one week in the near term for both Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways studied (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and is more than three weeks and one month in long-term for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. A regional to local increase in frost risk (Canterbury, Otago, and Southland) and a slight increase in disease risk (especially on the coast) are also projected in the future, while the South Island of New Zealand is not expected to be affected by heatwaves. The results show that Marlborough, New Zealand's most important winegrowing region, will continue to be one of the best areas for viticulture in the 21st century. On the other hand, new winegrowing opportunities are expected to emerge inland and southwards.Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the impact of climate change on the New Zealand wine industry and emphasises the need to adapt to changing climate conditions. It also provides insights into the future suitability of vineyards and identifies potential expansion areas for the New Zealand viticulture sector.

The impact of land use change on food security under the background of rapid urbanization - a case study of Xiamen city

Abstract China got through long period of rapid urbanization in period of 2000-2020, and huge amount of arable land has been occupied as built-up land. Such situation brought potential threats and risk to food security, such as food supply reduction, food self-sufficiency dilemma in special regions, special period. This research takes Xiamen, a coastal city with rapid urbanization in China, as the research area, analyzed its dynamic changes of land use, food production (FP) of ecosystem service value (ESV) and crops production per capita for years. In addition, food availability like the import with export also got analyzed, as well as food price. The results show that the increase of built-up land in Xiamen is the largest, followed by decrease of arable land. Large proportion of arable land has been converted into built-up land from 1989 to 2018. The decrease of arable land and increase of population due to rapid urbanization lead to the decrease of per capita crops production to 6 kg in 2018, which is only 1% of China’s average level. By comparison of per capita crops production in different regions and the change of China’s crops import and export, it is found that there is a significant contradiction between the urbanization ratio and food security in Xiamen, and it is difficult for Xiamen to obtain food input from regions nearby for long-term. Thus, Xiamen needs to take multiple measures and policy interventions to ensure a certain degree of food self-sufficiency, and protect the basic arable land as well.

Retrodiction of forest demography: Backward simulation with reverse matrix models

Abstract Reconstructing past ecological population dynamics and demographic events is crucial for understanding the dynamics of ecological processes, evaluating the impact of environmental changes and making informed conservation decisions. In forest ecosystems, retrodiction (i.e. the backward projection of ecological populations) plays a pivotal role in understanding historical forest carbon levels and the factors that have influenced their variation over time, because forest demography is a major determinant of the amount of carbon stored in forest ecosystems. The persistent lack of quantitative methods has been a significant obstacle in retrodicting forest demography, especially in applications of a broad geographical scale. While there is a wealth of models for predicting future forest conditions, models that can project these conditions backward in time are scarce. This study presents reverse matrix model (RMM), an innovative retrodiction modelling approach grounded in the principles of transition matrix models. RMM is designed to deduce past demographic characteristics of ecological populations using current data, making it one of the first models capable of projecting the fine‐scale dynamics of forest demography into the past. We assessed the retrodictive performance of RMM by fitting it to a dataset of a disturbed tropical rainforest in French Guiana in 2001–2023, then comparing the retrodictions to observations back to 1983 when the disturbance occurred. We further empirically evaluated the viability of retrodiction over a defined duration by inverting the density‐dependent matrix model by Lin et al. (1996), which predicts the dynamics of northern hardwoods in the United States. The case studies demonstrate significant potential for RMM application in various domains of forestry and conservation, including ecosystem management and conservation planning, global change impact assessment and biodiversity monitoring.

Analysis of The Impact of Climate Change on The Vulnerability of Coastal Areas and Small Islands in Gili Air, North Lombok

This research analyzes the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of coastal areas and small islands in Gili Air, North Lombok. Climate change, including rising temperatures and sea levels, is affecting coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs which are vulnerable to bleaching and death. This study identifies a trend of increasing built-up land on Gili Air in the 2013-2022 period, which is caused by tourism promotion policies. The impact of this policy causes an increase in the number of tourists and local residents, which then increases the need for tourism supporting facilities. These land cover changes and development pressures increase Gili Air's environmental and economic vulnerability to climate change. These findings emphasize the importance of comprehensive adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve the sustainability of ecosystems and the livelihoods of local residents.

UAV Autonomous Navigation Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning in Highly Dynamic and High-Density Environments

Autonomous navigation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has made great progress. However, most studies assume relatively simple task scenarios and do not consider the impact of complex task scenarios on UAV flight performance. This paper proposes a DRL-based autonomous navigation algorithm for UAVs, which enables autonomous path planning for UAVs in high-density and highly dynamic environments. This algorithm proposes a state space representation method that contains position information and angle information by analyzing the impact of UAV position changes and angle changes on navigation performance in complex environments. In addition, a dynamic reward function is constructed based on a non-sparse reward function to balance the agent’s conservative behavior and exploratory behavior during the model training process. The results of multiple comparative experiments show that the proposed algorithm not only has the best autonomous navigation performance but also has the optimal flight efficiency in complex environments.

An agroecological approach to preparation and use of a milk protein production baseline.

Commercial dairy production occurs in a complex management environment, but increasingly, the dairy manager is expected to provide detailed reporting of productivity and environmental outcomes, for which conventional research methods double-blind crossover or case:control trials are inappropriate. This paper demonstrates the development of a milk protein production monitoring tool using a temporal (baseline) control in longitudinal, census-type investigations of modulation of system performance in response to factor change. It utilises farm-derived current and historical data, and contrasts seasonal responses with those achieved on neighbouring farms in a 2×2 contingency table. The approach is then shown to be useful in assessing the effect of two approaches to moderating milk urea concentration. Firstly, milk urea content can be monitored as it falls due to reduced feed protein content, and this fall can be arrested when milk protein content starts to decline relative to the value expected for the herd at any lactation stage. Secondly, by providing a dietary intervention aimed at increasing the availability of metabolic energy in the last month before calving, udder development can be augmented, leading to greater protein secretion capacity, meaning greater utilisation of circulating amino acids, and thus more limited substrate for urea synthesis. Thus, the changing impact of differing nutrition practices on dairy herd nitrogen excretion to environment can be followed with daily precision. In principle this approach can provide useful insights into a wide range of practical management interventions.

Effect of Anti-Transpiration and Potassium on Water Use Efficiency and Water Consumption under Water Stress Conditions to Climate Change Resistance

Climate change impact serious threats to global food security due to changes in water requirements resulting from the variation and instability of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and the lack of water availability. Therefore, our research aims to use anti-transpiration agents that reduce plant water consumption, thus providing adequate amounts of water for agriculture in arid areas. A field experiment was conducted under water stress conditions during the winter seasons 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. The study included three levels of water stress, which are depletion of 40, 55 and 70% of the available water at a depth of 20 cm for the first three irrigations and a depth of 30 cm for the remaining irrigations and for the three treatments in succession. Anti-transpiration was added from different sources, which are kaolin, paraffin wax, silicon and potassium, in addition to the comparison treatment (spraying with water only). The results showed significant differences between the depletion treatments, as the 40% depletion treatment of the available water was significantly superior in most of the characteristics of the crop and its components, as the amount of increase in the grain yield was 62.24 and 64.22% for the two seasons in succession, compared to the 70% depletion treatment of the available water, which gave the lowest averages for all the studied characteristics. The irrigation treatment after depleting 40% of the available water was characterized by the best water use efficiency of 1.60 and 1.44 kg m-3 for the two seasons respectively, compared to the treatment of depleting 70% of the available water, which gave the lowest water use efficiency of 1.14 and 1.02 kg m-3 for the two seasons respectively. Spraying with anti-transpiration and potassium led to a significant increase in the yield and all its components compared to the comparison treatment (spraying with water only), which gave the lowest averages for all the studied traits, as spraying with potassium and kaolin gave a significant increase in most of the studied traits. Also, anti-transpiration and potassium, represented by potassium and kaolin, had a significant effect on water use efficiency, as the increase amount when spraying with potassium was 45.87 and 46.93% for the two seasons respectively compared to the comparison treatment (spraying with water only). As for the actual water consumption, we find an increase in the values ​​of water consumption and the number of irrigations in the comparison treatment (spraying with water only) compared to the anti-transpiration and potassium treatments, as the anti-transpiration and potassium provided water at a depth of 550, 414 and 405 m3 ha-1 for the first season and 615, 375 and 393 m3 ha-1 for the second season for the depletion treatments of 40, 55 and 70% of the available water, respectively, compared to the comparison treatment (spraying with water only). This increase is not small when applied to large areas and providing additional agricultural areas that can be invested. These findings suggest that targeted use of these treatments can effectively mitigate the effects of water stress, improving wheat production and resource efficiency in water-limited environments.

Environmental and Social Life Cycle Assessment of Data Centre Heat Recovery Technologies Combined with Fuel Cells for Energy Generation

The energy sector is essential in the transition to a more sustainable future, and renewable energies will play a key role in achieving this. It is also a sector in which the circular economy presents an opportunity for the utilisation of other resources and residual energy flows. This study examines the environmental and social performance of innovative energy technologies (which contribute to the circularity of resources) implemented in a demonstrator site in Luleå (Sweden). The demo-site collected excess heat from a data centre to cogenerate energy, combining the waste heat with fuel cells that use biogas derived from waste, meeting part of its electrical demand and supplying thermal energy to an existing district heating network. Following a cradle-to-gate approach, an environmental and a social life cycle assessment were developed to compare two scenarios: a baseline scenario reflecting current energy supply methods and the WEDISTRICT scenario, which considers the application of different renewable and circular technologies. The findings indicate that transitioning to renewable energy sources significantly reduces environmental impacts in seven of the eight assessed impact categories. Specifically, the study showed a 48% reduction in climate change impact per kWh generated. Additionally, the WEDISTRICT scenario, accounting for avoided burdens, prevented 0.21 kg CO2 eq per kWh auto-consumed. From the social perspective, the WEDISTRICT scenario demonstrated improvement in employment conditions within the worker and local community categories, product satisfaction within the society category, and fair competition within the value chain category. Projects like WEDISTRICT demonstrate the circularity options of the energy sector, the utilisation of resources and residual energy flows, and that these lead to environmental and social improvements throughout the entire life cycle, not just during the operation phase.

MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Hydrocera triflora since the Last Interglacial and under Future Climate Scenarios.

Hydrocera triflora is a perennial herb found in southeastern and southern Asia. In China, it is only found in Hainan Province. With global climate change, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of H. triflora can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection of this species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of H. triflora in China under historical, current, and future periods based on 66 distribution points and 12 environmental variables. The results were as follows: (i) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of H. triflora were precipitation in the coldest month and in the wettest quarter, with elevation also being a significant factor. (ii) Over the past three periods, the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid-Holocene, the suitable area for H. triflora initially decreased and then increased. The suitable area reached the lowest value in the last glacial maximum period, at only 27.03 × 104 km2. (iii) The current potential distribution area is 67.81 × 104 km2, and the optimal area is mainly distributed in the Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of H. triflora is projected to increase by 11.27~90.83 × 104 km2. It is expected to reach a maximum value (158.64 × 104 km2) in 2081~2100 under the SSP-585 climate scenario, with the distribution centroid shifting to higher latitudes. The newly gained optimal habitats will provide potential areas for introduction and ex situ conservation of this species.

Impact of Regulatory Changes on Financial Market Stability in Germany

Purpose: The aim of the study was to examine the impact of regulatory changes on financial market stability in Germany. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The impact of regulatory changes on financial market stability in Germany has been significant, contributing to a more resilient financial system. Stricter regulations, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, have enhanced risk management practices, increased capital requirements for banks, and improved transparency in financial transactions. These measures have reduced systemic risks and bolstered investor confidence, helping to maintain market stability even during periods of economic uncertainty. However, the increased regulatory burden has also posed challenges for financial institutions, leading to higher compliance costs and adjustments in business strategies to meet new standards. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Theory of financial regulation, adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) & the institutional theory may be used to anchor future studies of the impact of regulatory changes on financial market stability in Germany. Practically, financial institutions and market participants need to adapt to evolving regulatory environments with robust risk management and compliance strategies. Policymakers should ensure that regulatory frameworks are designed to promote financial stability while accommodating the needs of financial institutions.

The Impact of Climate Change on Children Health

The Impact of Climate Change on Children Health

The Impact of Economic Policy Changes on International Trade and Relations

Economic policies continue to remain central in determining relations among nation states in the global economy that is progressively characterised by integrated globalisation. The newer changes in the course of economics; or due to the geopolitical conflicts, advancement in the field of technology, the impact of COVID-19, commerce worldwide has experience newer changes. A review of these policies is presented in this paper with a view of assessing their direct and indirect effect on international trade. Analyzing the experience of various countries, including both developed ones and the countries in the process of development, this paper aims to reveal how nations responded to these changes, as well as what strategies can work, and what difficulties can be encountered. Besides, the paper contains a prognosis of future developments of the international economy, having several scenarios and guidelines for practical implementation. These disconnects highlight the relevance of the critical philosophy in economic policy formulation since the globe economic policy should balance internal economic stable and international trade cooperation.

Disproportionate contributions of land cover and changes to ecosystem functions in Kazakhstan and Mongolia

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) have profoundly altered land surface properties and ecosystem functions, including carbon and water production. While mapping these changes from local to global scales has become more achievable due to advancements in earth observations and remote sensing, linking land cover changes to ecosystem functions remains challenging, especially at regional scale. Our study attempts to fill this gap by employing a computationally efficient method and two types of widely used high-resolution satellite images. We first investigated the contribution of landscape composition to ecosystem function by examining how land cover and proportion affected gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) at six macro-landscapes in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. We hypothesized that both ecosystem and landscape GPP and ET are disproportionate to their composition and, therefore, changes in land cover will have asymmetrical influences on landscape functions. We leveraged a computational-friendly linear downscaling approach to align the coarse spatial resolution of MODIS (500 m) with a fine-grain and localized land cover map developed from Landsat (30 m) for six provinces in countries where intensive LULCC occurred in recent decades. By establishing two metrics—function to composition ratio (F/C) and function to changes in composition change (ΔF/ΔC)—we tested our hypothesis and evaluated the impact of land cover change on ecosystem functions within and among the landscapes. Our results show three major themes. (1) The five land cover types have signature downscaled ET and GPP that appears to vary between the two countries as well as within each country. (2) F/C of ET and GPP of forests is statistically greater than 1 (i.e., over-contributing), whereas F/C of grasslands and croplands is close to or slightly less than 1 (i.e., under-contribution). F/C of barrens is clearly lower than 1 but greater than zero. Specifically, a unit of forest generates 1.085 unit of ET and 1.123 unit of GPP, a unit of grassland generates 0.993 unit of ET and GPP, and a unit of cropland produces 0.987 unit of ET and 0.983 unit of GPP. The divergent F/C values among the land cover classes support the hypothesis that landscape function is disproportionate to its composition. (3) ΔET/ΔC and ΔGPP/ΔC of forests and croplands showed negative values, while grasslands and barrens showed positive values, indicating that converting a unit of forest to other land cover leads to a decrease in ET and GPP, while converting units of grassland or barren to other land cover classes will result in increased ET and GPP. This linear downscaling approach for calculating F/C and ΔF/ΔC is labor-saving and cost-effective for rapid assessment on the impact of land use land cover change on ecosystem functions.

Thermal Comfort Conditions and Mortality in Brazil

Conventional temperature-based approaches often overlook the intricate nature of thermal stress experienced by individuals. To address this limitation, climatologists have developed thermal indices—composite measures designed to reflect the complex interaction of meteorological factors influencing human perception of temperature. Our study focuses on Brazil, estimating the association between thermal comfort conditions and mortality related to respiratory and circulatory diseases. We examined four distinct thermal indices: the discomfort index (DI), net effective temperature (NET), humidex (H), and heat index (HI). Analyzing a comprehensive dataset of 2,872,084 deaths from 2003 to 2017, we found significant variation in relative risk (RR) based on health outcomes, exposure lag, percentile of exposure, sex/age groups, and specific thermal indices. For example, under high exposure conditions (99th percentile), we observed that the shorter lags (3, 5, 7, and 10) had the most robust effects on all-cause mortality. For example, under lag 3, the pooled national results for the overall population (all ages and sexes) indicate an increased risk of all-cause mortality, with an RR of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.13; 1.122) for DI, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.17) for H, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09; 1.21) for HI, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.13; 1.22) for NET. At low exposure levels (1st percentile), all four distinct thermal indices were linked to an increase in all-cause mortality across most sex and age subgroups. Specifically, for lag 20, we observed an estimated RR of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.14; 1.23) for DI, 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08; 1.16) for H, 1.17 (95% CI: 1.12; 1.22) for HI, and 1.18 (95% CI: 1.14; 1.23) for NET. These findings have important implications for policymakers, guiding the development of measures to minimize climate change’s impact on public health in Brazil.

Unravelling the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow: the benefit of newly developed evapotranspiration data

ABSTRACT To separate the contributions of climate change and human activities to alterations in flow for the Ahar Chay watershed in Iran, change points of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) were distinguished before and after significant alterations. The Budyko model and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to find the reduction in runoff. New Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) ET data was used to consider plant types. Results revealed an increase in NDVI coinciding with the change point in 1998, as well as ET in 1999. The significance of the Sattarkhan Dam became evident when distinguishing the impacts upstream versus downstream of the dam. Results also indicated that climate change contributed significantly to upstream flow reduction (83.5%), whereas downstream reductions were primarily linked to human-related impacts (59.7–82.5%). Assuming no dam interception, 2007 became the change point, signifying a 37.5% reduction in average flow from before to after this point due to the increased vegetation cover.

Impact of climate change on the (poly)phenol composition of botrytization in the Tokaj wine region

Tokaj wine region is famous for its aszú wines, which are made of noble rotted raw materials. There is also a continuous change in the life activity of Botrytis cinerea as a result of climate change, which not only alters the rate of acidification but also its characteristic biochemical processes. Increasing sugar content is associated with a fructose excess, an increase in succinic acid, fumaric acid, citric acid, a change in the composition of phenolic compounds and an increase in phenolic acid content. This study examines the polyphenol content measured in the last 4 vintages and presents the typical phenolic acid composition.

Impact of land cover changes on land surface temperature variations in Adama City, Ethiopia

Impact of land cover changes on land surface temperature variations in Adama City, Ethiopia

Impacts of Climate Change on Temperature and Rainfall on Dawa Sub-watershed, Genale Dawa River Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Impacts of Climate Change on Temperature and Rainfall on Dawa Sub-watershed, Genale Dawa River Basin, Southern Ethiopia

Health survey on anxiety, depression, and stress in Afghanistan: A large-scale cross-sectional study amid ongoing challenges

BackgroundOne of the most significant events in recent Afghan history is the rise of the Taliban and the war that followed, which had profound impacts on the lives of Afghans. The present study examined the mental health of Afghans living under the Taliban government.MethodsBetween June 5, 2023 and February 12, 2024, a cross-sectional study was conducted among the Afghan population in three key regions of Afghanistan. Data were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. The 21-item Depression, Anxiety and Stress scale (DASS-21) was utilized to assess depression, anxiety and stress of the Afghan population. Ethical permission for this study was granted by the Afghanistan Center for Epidemiological Studies (ACES). Logistic regression models were employed to explore the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics and depression, anxiety, and stress among 2,698 participants.ResultsThe prevalence of depression was 72.05%, anxiety was 71.94%, and stress was 66.49%. Multiple regression analysis indicated that gender (being female), economic status (being poor), residency (living in rural areas), education level (being illiterate), being a cigarette smoker, and having experienced a bad event during the past month were significantly associated with depression, anxiety and stress.ConclusionThe findings of the present study show very high levels of anxiety, depression, and stress, most likely reflecting the profound impact of recent political, social, and economic changes. Notably, a significant majority of participants, particularly females and individuals above 35 years of age, reported severe to extremely severe mental health symptoms. The mental health crisis in Afghanistan is a complex and urgent issue that requires a comprehensive and compassionate response.

Modulation of Free Carbon Structures in Polysiloxane-Derived Ceramics for Anode Materials in Lithium-Ion Batteries.

Polymer-derived silicon oxycarbide (SiOC) ceramics have garnered significant attention as novel silicon-based anode materials. However, the low conductivity of SiOC ceramics is a limiting factor, reducing both their rate capability and cycling stability. Therefore, controlling the free carbon content and its degree of graphitization within SiOC is crucial for determining battery performance. In this study, we regulated the free carbon content using divinylbenzene (DVB) and controlled the graphitization of free carbon with the transition metal iron (Fe). Through a simple pyrolysis process, we synthesized SiOC ceramic materials (CF) and investigated the impact of Fe-induced changes in the carbon phase and the amorphous SiOC phase on the comprehensive electrochemical performance. The results demonstrated that increasing the DVB content in the SiOC precursor enhanced the free carbon content, while the addition of Fe promoted the graphitization of free carbon and induced the formation of carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The electrochemical performance results showed that the CF electrode material exhibited a high reversible capacity of approximately 1154.05 mAh g-1 at a low current density of 100 mA g-1 and maintained good rate capability and cycling stability after 1000 cycles at a high current density of 2000 mA g-1.