Impact Of Trade Restrictions Research Articles

Impact of Trade Restrictions on the Russian Forest Industry: Evidence from Siberian Timber Producers

In 2022, the Russian forest sector was severely affected by the government’s ban on the export of unprocessed timber and trade sanctions imposed by several countries. It is generally recognized that the regions of the Russian North-West are the most affected by trade barriers that have emerged. Against this background, the impact of bilateral trade restrictions on timber companies in the Asian part of Russia is not discussed. Nevertheless, the forest industry is an important sector of the Siberian economy that has an economic, social and environmental impact on the life of local communities. This paper analyzes the differences among Siberian timber companies in their response to the crisis depending on three factors: industrial specialization, scale of revenue and regional location. The results show that in 2022 the highest median revenues and net profits were generated by small firms that were focused on the domestic market and benefited from reduced competition due to sanctions. There is also evidence that spatial heterogeneity in the response to the crisis may be due to the different support measures of regional authorities and the proximity of the region to border points. We argue that the current conditions may become a new driver for the timber industry development, aimed at the growth of added value and expansion of domestic demand for wood products.

In Data We Trust: Proving Market Manipulation on the Tehran Stock Exchange

The Iranian financial markets play an essential role in the country's economic development. In 2019 and 2020, ordinary traders were encouraged by the political authorities to invest in state-owned enterprises. Citizens who invested in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) indices routinely complain that the volatile market performance has wiped out their capital and savings. In this study, the reliability of intraday transaction data for 341 stocks listed on the TSE was examined. Our critical objective is to identify fraud on the TSE. The authors applied Benford's first and second digit laws to detect irregularities in financial data based on three goodness of fit tests. The authors found overwhelming evidence of the presence of market manipulation on the TSE. We found that 46 percent of the companies listed on the TSE did not adhere to the law of the first digit. A thorough analysis of compliance with the second digit revealed a similar pattern. Given the severe impact of trade restrictions imposed by the 2018 US sanctions and the substantial increase in Iran's public debt burden, the TSE has become a major source for offsetting the government's deficit by conducting IPOs of state-owned companies. Market manipulation in Iran appears to be motivated by the government's urgent need for fresh capital and its waste. It would be a common misconception to trust the TSE's data.

THE ROLE OF TRADE BARRIERS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN METALLURGICAL INDUSTRY OF UKRAINE

The purpose of the paper is to analyze and present the role of the metallurgical industry for the economy of Ukraine and evaluate the impact of trade restrictions on the international activity of the metallurgical industry of Ukraine. As a result, this study evaluated the risks of international activities of metallurgical enterprises of Ukraine with key partner countries. Methodology. Assessment of the role of the metallurgical industry for the Ukrainian economy and the extent of the impact of trade barriers on international activities is based on several statistical data and a few methods and rules for their analysis. Their use will allow managers of metallurgical companies to form a strategy for the development of the enterprise in international markets and quickly respond to changes in the external market situation. These methods include statistical analysis, strategic segmentation, deductive and inductive methods, data comparison method, forecasting and risk assessment. Results. Per capita steel consumption growth rates have shown positive dynamics since 2010. Volatility levels of per capita steel consumption of the population is significantly lower than the growth of world GDP. Against the backdrop of slowing global GDP growth rate of steel consumption continues to grow. According to the level of consumption of steel per capita, the author singled out three stages in the development of countries. The share of exports of products of the metallurgical industry of Ukraine in 2020 amounted to 18.3% in monetary terms. This indicator is the second after the volume of exports of agricultural products. Among the total export of steel products in Ukraine 95% are engaged in export of ferrous metals, which is a raw product. The trade balance of Ukraine in the trade of metallurgical products has been decreasing since 2018 amid a decrease in export volumes and has not yet reached the level of 2016. According to the World Trade Organization, at the end of 2020, there were 3,208 non-tariff trade barriers in the world regarding trade in metals and metal products. In terms of the number of anti-dumping measures, the market of metals and metal products ranks first – 843 measures out of 2160 measures for all product groups. This tool is used by countries to protect the domestic market and as a tool in international competition. As a result of a matrix analysis of the rates and volumes of growth of Ukraine's metallurgical products in the context of partner countries and the number of introduced trade barriers, the countries with the highest risk in international activities and the most promising sales markets were identified. The Russian Federation and the United States are identified as the countries with the highest risk of the impact of trade barriers on international activities for Ukrainian metallurgical companies. The most promising sales markets are Saudi Arabia and Italy. Practical implications. With the help of the results of this paper, managers of metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine can form and adjust the strategic directions for the development of companies in the frame-work of international activities.

Implications of the US–China Tit-for-Tat Tariff Escalation: A Literature Review of Standard Trade Theory and Empirical Evidence on Economic Consequences and Effects on Both Countries

This study reviewed standard international trade theories as they pertain to the impact of trade restrictions. Current empirical studies were reviewed to see whether evidence supports trade theory predictions. Conventional price impacts in standard models of international trade show that trade restrictions are detrimental for trade for both countries involved, and the empirical evidence from current studies confirmed this. The current tit-for-tat tariff escalation between China and the United States has led to, among other things, increased domestic prices to both American consumers and producers; lower export prices to some of the Chinese exporters and American firms based in China; reduced import and export trade between the two countries that would lead to costly adjustments in supply chains; loss in net welfare and employment; and loss in competitive advantage to firms in both countries that produce for export. Therefore, efforts should be made to de-escalate these trade tensions.

Trade, product variety and welfare: a quantitative assessment for mainland China

We calculate a variety of welfare gains for Mainland China, following the approach of Romer (1994), who emphasized that proper modelling of the impact of trade restrictions on the number of available product varieties is crucial for quantifying the welfare impact of trade liberalization. The empirical work presented relies on direct measures of product variety calculated from highly disaggregated trade data. The emerging conclusion is that freer trade has indeed boosted welfare.

A new look at the impact of U.S. import barriers on corporate profit expectations

A New Look at the Impact of U.S. Import Barriers on Corporate Profit Expectations. — The notion that industries benefit from protection is firmly grounded in trade theory. However, previous “event studies” measuring the impact of trade restrictions on stock prices reveal that shareholders expect no improvement in industry profits from protection. The implication is that barriers designed to promote industry adjustment are considered ineffective by equity holders. This investigation of U.S. “Escape Clause” cases shows that shareholders do expect protection to enhance profits, but not universally. Outcomes are linked to the type of trade measure selected, with industries protected by tariffs or global quotas faring better than those shielded by nonglobal “Orderly Marketing Agreements.”

The impact of trade restrictions on U.S. apparel consumers

The loss incurred by U.S. apparel consumers in 1980 due to higher prices from tariffs and quotas was estimated. The price impact of tariffs was based on the ad valorem tariff rate while the price impact of quotas was based on estimated price differences between domestic and imported apparel at the same U.S. distribution level. Consumer losses in 1980 ranged from $10 billion to $12 billion depending on the price elasticity of demand for apparel and whether consumers or distributors received the scarcity rent generated by quotas. The increase in consumer expenditures due to higher prices accounted for the greatest proportion of consumer losses and ranged from 23% to 25% of total consumer expenditures for apparel depending on the allocation of the scarcity rent. While a reduction in trade restrictions would benefit consumers, such a reduction would also impose losses on firms and workers in the domestic apparel industry. However, there are other strategies for meeting competition from imports that would benefit producers as well as consumers.

The Impact of Trade Restrictions on Price Stability in the World Wheat Market

AbstractA thirteen‐region quadratic programming model of world wheat trade is utilized to simulate the effects of unanticipated quantity changes on prices in the world wheat market under different degrees of trade restriction. Three scenarios characterized by different numbers of regions that permit price signals from international markets to be reflected into their domestic markets are specified. As the number of countries whose wheat trade is price responsive increases in the simulations, the percentage change in world price is smaller in response to a shock such as u.s. export controls or an unanticipated change in Soviet imports.