Price Impact Research Articles

A novel link prediction model for interval-valued crude oil prices based on complex network and multi-source information

Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial for maintaining energy economy stability and enhancing investment and operational decision-making. Nowadays, the link prediction model for crude oil prices based on a complex network model has become an emerging and promising approach. However, existing link prediction methods are unable to extract complex information about interval-valued crude oil prices, and fail to consider the impact of multi-source information. Therefore, this paper proposes the link prediction model for interval-valued crude oil prices using complex network and multi-source information, which converts crude oil price interval series into complex networks. Through link prediction, it takes into account both the impact of past interval-crude oil prices on future interval time series and the interference of external real-time information on interval-valued prices. First, news headlines and geopolitical risk indices related to crude oil prices are captured, and search index data and news sentiment scores associated with interval data are analyzed. Subsequently, the interval sequence data and related influencing factors are decomposed and reconstructed respectively. The reconstructed interval center and radius sequence are then converted into a directed network, and node similarity in the network is calculated to generate similar nodes of the interval subsequence as feature values. Finally, multiple machine learning models are employed to acquire the optimal weighted combination prediction with interval prediction values. According to the experimental data, this approach outperforms other benchmark methods in terms of prediction accuracy.

Uncertainty about what is in the price

A critical question facing speculators contemplating to trade on private information is whether their signal has already been priced in by the market. In our model, speculators assess the novelty of their information based on recent price movements, and market makers are aware that speculators might be trading on stale news. An asymmetric response to past price movements ensues: after price increases, buy volume – because it may result from stale news trading – has a lower price impact than sell volume (and vice versa after price decreases). Consequently, return skewness is negatively related to lagged returns. We find strong support for these and other predictions using a comprehensive sample of US stocks.

Association between current cigarette prices and cessation behaviors among male adult smokers: findings from 2018 to 2020 ITC Vietnam surveys

BackgroundThis study evaluated the impact of the tax increase in January 2019 on changes in intention to quit and the effect of cigarette prices on quit attempts and successful quitting among male cigarette smokers in Vietnam.MethodsData were derived from the ITC project in Vietnam, which included 1585 adult smokers at baseline (Wave 1, Aug-Oct 2018) followed up to waves 2 (Sep-Nov 2019) and 3 (Sep-Dec 2020). Generalized estimating equations regression was performed to estimate changes in the intention to quit. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the cigarette price of a cigarette pack in relation to quit attempts and successful quitting.ResultsThe increase in cigarette tax in 2019 did not significantly increase the likelihood of the intention to quit. After the tax increase, 63.6% of participants who smoked made a quit attempt, and 27.6% successfully quit smoking in the follow-up waves. However, the price of a cigarette pack was not significantly associated with quit attempts and successful quitting. The study did not observe a significant impact of cigarette prices on quit attempts and successful quitting in all subgroups of household income. Factors associated with quit attempts included the number of cigarettes smoked and the intention to quit, while those associated with successful quitting included age, dual use of cigarettes and other tobacco products, and the intention to quit.ConclusionCurrent cigarette prices were not associated with cessation behaviors even within the lowest household income group. Therefore, a sharp rise in cigarette tax is required to incentivize smokers to quit smoking.

The Influence of Product Quality, Price and Promotion to Increase Customer Satisfaction at Queen Cempaka Hills Housing

Customer satisfaction is an important thing that must receive attention for service provider organizations. If customers are satisfied then there will be good recommendations. This research aims to determine the impact of product quality, price and promotion on customer satisfaction at Queen Cempaka Hills Jember Housing. The research population is all consumers who bought a house at Queen Cempaka Hills Jember Housing. The sample plan was determined to be 30 respondents. Description analysis, validity and reliability tests and hypothesis testing were carried out for this research. The research results are expected to show that product quality, price and promotion have a positive effect on customer satisfaction at Queen Cempaka Hills Jember Housing.

Safe haven between European ESG and energy sector under Russian-Ukraine war: Role of sustainable investments for portfolio diversification

The shortage of oil and gas supply to Europe during the Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered a price hike in the European energy sector. To mitigate the impact of higher energy prices on consumers, the EU introduced a price ceiling mechanism to curb gas prices from exceeding market norms. This interplay between supply shortages and price controls further heightened volatility in energy market prices. Consequently, our study aims to explore the efficacy of ESG indices as a safe haven against the highly volatile European oil and gas sectors to reduce portfolio losses during conflict. Using advanced analytical techniques such as cross-quantilogram to predict directional predictability, we find that bullish ESG markets are a safe haven against the bearish oil and gas markets in short, medium, and long-term investment horizons. Further, to identify the net receiver/transmitter of spillover between ESG indices and oil and gas sectors, our quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis shows ESG is a net receiver of spillover before the conflict and during wartime. Additionally, we explored the indicator of uncertainty that influences quantile spillover between ESG indices and European oil and gas sectors. We find that uncertainty's role in quantile spillover is significant and asymmetric, and it becomes more volatile during wartime. This feature tends to be amplified during short and long-term spillovers. Finally, the portfolio rebalance strategy suggests that a safe haven portfolio based on a one-month investment horizon yields positive returns during wartime. Hence, this study suggests investors include ESG indices as safe haven assets at times of crisis and for policymakers to understand the role of uncertainties in reducing price volatility and risk contagion among ESG and energy markets.

ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA, PELAYANAN, DAN PROMOSI TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN PENGGUNAAN JASA OJEK ONLINE “GOJEK” PADA MAHASISWA STIE JAYAKARTA TAHUN 2024

This article was conducted with the aim of evaluating the impact of prices, services and promotions offered by the Indonesian Gojek company on the decision to use Gojek online motorcycle taxi services among STIE Jayakarta 2024 students. A numbers-based approach was used in the descriptive method. The required sample of 63 individuals was obtained using the Slovin method. This study revealed that although individual price is not a significant factor in consumer decisions, usage decisions are strongly influenced by service and promotions. The level of certainty of the coefficient of determination is 52%. This proves that price, service and promotion variables influence 52% of usage decisions, while the remaining 48% can be analyzed by factors not investigated by this article.

THE EFFECT OF PROMOTION, PRICE, AND CUSTOMER RATING ONLINE ON THE BUYING DECISION OF TOKOPEDIA E-COMMERCE: A CASE STUDY IN PADANG

This study aims to analyze the impact of promotions, pricing, and online customer ratings on purchasing decisions in the Tokopedia e-commerce platform in Padang City. Data were collected through a questionnaire that was tested for validity and reliability. Regression analysis results indicate that promotions and online customer ratings have a significant positive influence on purchasing decisions, while pricing does not have a substantial impact. These findings provide insights for business practitioners in designing effective marketing strategies in the digital era. It is recommended that sellers continuously optimize promotional strategies, set competitive prices, and manage customer reviews effectively to enhance purchasing decisions. Promotional activities are considered highly important in boosting purchasing decisions, whereas high prices may reduce consumer interest.

The Effect Of Stock Price, Earning Per Share, Current Year Profit, Inflation, Interest And Exchange Rate On Construction Investment In Pt. Total Bangun Persada Tbk During 2013-2022

Indonesia is vigorously promoting progress in the construction sector, a key aspect of infrastructure development aimed at achieving equitable distribution across the country and preventing economic disparities (Willar, Waney, Pangemanan, & Mait, 2019). Infrastructure development is an essential program that continues to be advanced to enhance infrastructure and ensure economic equality throughout Indonesia. One of the primary infrastructure sectors targeted for development is construction (Pridayanti, 2014). Construction plays a vital role in supporting economic growth and improving the quality of life by providing necessary facilities and amenities. The construction of roads, bridges, buildings, and other infrastructures not only enhances connectivity and logistics efficiency but creates jobs and attracts investment. Therefore, the construction sector is a priority in the government's efforts to strengthen national competitiveness and catch up with other countries. One solution to support infrastructure development, particularly in construction, is through investment. Investment in the construction sector is crucial as it provides the necessary funds to build and improve existing and new infrastructures (Tambunan, Sabijono, & Lambey, 2019). Moreover, investment can attract reputable and competent construction companies, such as PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk, a private company engaged in construction. Investment also plays a role in creating new jobs, enhancing local workforce skills, and fostering economic growth (Mara, 2022). In making investment decisions, several factors need to be considered, such as the impact of stock prices, Earnings Per Share (EPS), current profit, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates. Stock prices reflect the company's performance and market perception of prospects, while EPS indicates the profit earned per share, providing insight into the company's financial health. Current profit shows the profitability generated from daily operations. Inflation and interest rates are macroeconomic indicators that affect purchasing power and capital costs. Exchange rates, on the other hand, influence the cost of importing raw materials and the company's exposure to international markets. All these factors must be comprehensively considered to make wise and beneficial investment decisions.

Asset prices when large investors interact strategically

This paper examines equilibrium asset prices and leverage in an exchange economy populated with both retail and institutional investors. Institutional investors influence the price of the stocks they trade and are aware of the price impact of the opponent and, thus, interact strategically. Because of the price impact, institutional investors decrease their demand for stocks and lend money to the retail sector, thereby increasing leverage in the economy. The risk-free rate (equity premium) tends to be lower (higher) as compared to an economy populated by retail investors only. Retail investors' compensation for liquidity provision depends on the behavior of institutional investors and the state of the economy.

Dollar and government bond liquidity: Evidence from Korea

Using unique tick-by-tick data from an exchange, this paper examines the relationship between the US dollar and liquidity in the Korean government (Treasury) bond market. We find that a strong US dollar deteriorates the Treasury market's liquidity by increasing the bid-ask spread and the price impact and lowering market depth. The effects of fluctuations in the broad US dollar index on Treasury market liquidity become more pronounced when funding liquidity conditions are tighter, when banks' total capital ratio is lower with greater foreign currency risk, or when there is a larger sell-off of Korea Treasury bonds by foreign investors. The empirical evidence supports the financial channel of exchange rates affecting Treasury market liquidity. In particular, a strong dollar as a barometer of global financial conditions is likely to limit the market intermediation capacity of emerging market dealers and thus tighten emerging market conditions.

THE IMPACT OF ELECTRONIC MARKETING MIX ELEMENTS ON CUSTOMER LOYALTY: A FIELD STUDY ON CLIENTS OF TRAVEL AGENCIES IN ALGERIA

Purpose: This article deals with the impact of the elements of the electronic marketing mix on the loyalty of customers of travel agencies in Algeria. It aims to reveal the extent of the impact of electronic service, electronic pricing, electronic distribution, electronic promotion, privacy, website design, and electronic business security on the loyalty of customers of travel agencies in Algeria, in addition to providing recommendations that can enhance customer loyalty, which contributes to improving the overall performance of travel agencies in Algeria and increasing their sales. Methodology: The descriptive and interpretive approaches were relied upon, as the descriptive approach expresses the phenomenon studied quantitatively and qualitatively. The qualitative expression describes the phenomenon and clarifies its characteristics, while the quantitative expression gives it a numerical description that shows the amount or size of this phenomenon and the degrees of its association with other phenomena. As for the interpretive approach, it was used to explain and analyze the impact of the elements of the electronic marketing mix on customer loyalty to travel agencies in Algeria. Results: The results indicate that the elements of the electronic marketing mix have a positive impact on the loyalty of customers of travel agencies in Algeria, with a positive impact for both electronic service and electronic business security, while the results showed that electronic pricing, electronic distribution, electronic promotion, privacy, and website design have no impact on the loyalty of customers of travel agencies in Algeria. Practical Implications: The study proposes several practical measures for travel agencies in Algeria, including properly exploiting electronic pricing, making adjustments in electronic distribution, developing effective strategies to promote their services electronically, paying great attention to privacy policies and data security, and improving the interface of websites. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by providing a detailed analysis of the impact of e-marketing mix elements on customer loyalty of travel agencies in Algeria, which has been relatively under-researched in this context. The study’s unique focus on e-marketing mix elements provides valuable insights and tailored recommendations to enhance customer loyalty of travel agencies in Algeria.

Influence Price, Production Rubber and Income on The Level of Welfare of Rubber Farmers in The Village Ranto Jior District River Right Regency Port Rock South

ABSTRACT This research aims to determine the impact of price, rubber production, and income on the welfare level of rubber farmers in Ranto Jior Village, Sungai Kana District, South Labuhan Batu Regency. Using a quantitative method with multiple linear regression analysis supported by SPSS version 23, data were collected through questionnaires. The study's population was the residents of Ranto Jior Village, with a sample size of 100 people selected using probability sampling based on the Lemeshow formula. The findings reveal that the welfare of rubber farmers is significantly and positively influenced by rubber prices, rubber production, and income. All three factors—price, rubber production, and income—together significantly influence the welfare of rubber farmers in Ranto Jior Village. The determination test shows that these factors account for 92.8% of the variance in welfare, indicating a very strong influence.

Can rising urban house prices actually limit the outward FDI by firms in a home country? A story from China

We investigate the effects of rising urban house prices on manufacturing firms’ decisions on outward foreign direct investment (outward FDI) in a home country. By utilizing the panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises in 2005–2013, our estimates suggest that, for every 210 manufacturing firms or 13 listed companies in China, one firm will forgo outward FDI when house prices double. As a result, there could have been 95 percent more manufacturing firms or 70 percent more listed firms conducting outward FDI if house prices remained unchanged during the study period. To address potential endogeneity issues, we exploit a fixed-effects instrumental variable model, a difference-in-differences strategy, and housing discontinuities at provincial borders among neighboring city/county pairs. To elucidate potential mechanisms, we employ the “Olley and Pakes” covariance to assess resource allocation efficiency and observe its negative correlation with house prices. Furthermore, we delve into the impact of house prices and resource allocation efficiency on TFP, and find that house prices and TFP are negatively correlated, while resource allocation efficiency and TFP are positively correlated. Finally, heterogeneity analyses reveal that rising house prices exert a stronger negative influence on outward FDI entry for firms that are less productive, larger, domestically-owned, more closely linked to the real estate industry, labor-intensive, and in industries with higher levels of outward FDI participation. These results underscore the fact that rising house prices could exacerbate resource misallocation, leading to a decline in enterprise TFP and subsequently reducing their outward FDI.

Did Australia's brief period of carbon pricing impact corporate environmental, financial or social performance?

This study utilizes transaction cost and legitimacy theories to examine whether a carbon tax affects listed companies' environmental, financial and social performance within the context of Australia's National Greenhouse Energy Reporting (NGER) Act. We use a base sample of 346 listed company-year observations for 2012–2017 and employ the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to deal with bias arising from endogenous explanatory variables in our analysis. We find that the short period of implementation of a carbon tax in Australia was not successful in improving the carbon emissions of the high polluters subject to the tax in our sample. High polluters subject to the tax experienced a positive impact on financial performance and social performance. However, many entities beyond listed companies were subject to the tax, and the period of the tax saw a reduction in total emissions. We conjecture that industry assistance and free carbon credits granted to companies explain these results.

The impact of differential pricing subject on consumer behavior

The escalating use of artificial intelligence in marketing significantly impacts all aspects of consumer life. This research, grounded in attribution theory and S–O-R theory, employs scenario-based experimental methods to simulate two distinct purchasing contexts. The aim is to investigate consumers' psychological and behavioral responses to AI-initiated pricing. Through SPSS analysis of variance and Bootstrap analysis, the mechanisms of influence of AI-initiated pricing on consumer behavior are tested, revealing the mediating variables of mind perception and consumer perceived ethicality, as well as the mediating variables of perceived enterprise control. Data were collected from Chinese customers to test the model of this study. A total of 841 valid questionnaires were analyzed using ANOVA and Bootstrap analysis with SPSS. The results show that: (1) Consumers exhibit higher repurchase and word-of-mouth recommendation behaviors and lower complaint and switching behaviors for AI-initiated pricing compared to marketers; (2) AI-initiated pricing leads to diminished mind perceptions and augmented ethical perceptions among consumers. Ethical perceptions serve as a complete mediator, while mind perceptions play a less significant mediating role; (3) Perceived enterprise control plays a moderating role in the impact of AI-initiated pricing on consumer behavior. That is, when consumers know that the enterprise can control pricing agents, AI-initiated pricing leads to lower repurchase and word-of-mouth recommendation behaviors, and higher instances of complaining and switching behaviors than humans.

The Effect of Brand Image, Price and Product Quality on Purchasing Decisions for Iphone Products

This study is designed to examine the impact of Brand Image, Price, and Product Quality on Purchasing Decisions for iPhone products, especially in competition with other brands. The increasingly competitive condition of the cellphone market, especially with the emergence of iPhone products as a basic necessity in an ever-growing era, also affects the company's strategy for maintaining its position in the market. In addition, this study also aims to identify the most dominant factor influencing the purchase decision of iPhone products between Brand Image, Price, or Product Quality. The survey method was chosen to collect information from 96 respondents of potential iPhone product users at Universitas Pelita Bangsa, specifically from the class of 2020 students at the Faculty of Economics, Business Management Study Program. In this research, the approach applied is quantitative, using questionnaires and literature studies as data collection techniques. Data analysis was carried out through several methods, including validity test, reliability test, classical assumption test, multiple linear regression analysis, and hypothesis testing. Based on the t-test results, a calculated t-value of 2.861 with a significance level of 0.005 was obtained, indicating acceptance of the initial hypothesis. This confirms the significant and positive effect of brand image on purchasing decisions. The t-test results on the price variable produced a t-value of 8.009 with a significance level of 0.00, which indicates that the second hypothesis is accepted. This shows that price partially has a positive and significant influence on purchasing decisions. Meanwhile, the product quality variable obtained from the t-test results shows a calculated t-value of 2.022 with a significance of 0.046, stating the acceptance of the third hypothesis and indicating a positive and significant effect of product quality on purchasing decisions. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that 81.5% of purchasing decisions are influenced by a combination of brand image, price, and product quality variables, while the other 18.5% are influenced by other variables not examined in this study.

Hierarchical optimization for the energy management of a greenhouse integrated with grid-tied photovoltaic–battery systems

This study addresses the challenges of high energy consumption and environmental concerns in traditional greenhouse operations by exploring an integrated greenhouse with grid-tied photovoltaic (PV)-battery systems. A two-layer hierarchical optimization framework is proposed for effective energy management. In the upper layer, greenhouse operations are optimized with the Energy Consumption Minimization (ECM) strategy and the Energy Cost Minimization (ECoM) strategy, ensuring suitable climate conditions while reducing energy use and costs. In the lower layer, the scheduling of the hybrid energy system is optimized with the Self-consumption Maximization (SCM) strategy and the Total Cost Minimization (TCM) strategy, aiming to maximize the self-consumption of PV power and minimize total costs, including energy costs, battery aging costs, and carbon emission costs, while meeting the greenhouse’s electricity demand. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the impact of electricity prices, feed-in tariffs, battery capacity, and PV array area on hybrid energy system scheduling. Results reveal that the ECoM strategy reduces costs by 6.98% compared to the ECM strategy, and the TCM strategy reduces total costs by 43.50% compared to the SCM strategy. Battery capacity and PV array area are found to have a more significant influence on total costs than electricity prices and feed-in tariffs. This study can offer crucial insights for realizing cost-effective and environmentally friendly greenhouse operations, contributing to the advancement of sustainable agriculture.

How electricity and natural gas prices affect banking systemic risk

This paper analyzes the impact of energy market conditions, specifically electricity and natural gas prices, on systemic risk in the Euro Area. We adopt the CoVaR methodology introduced by Tobias and Brunnermeier (2016) to analyze shifts in the system’s value at risk, incorporating considerations for electricity and natural gas prices. Our findings reveal that energy-related variables influence systemic risk to a similar extent as other state variables, such as interbank spreads and market volatility. Notably, we find that electricity prices have a more pronounced impact on banks’ risk compared to natural gas prices. Moreover, we observe that the ΔCoVaR serves as a reliable measure of systemic stress conditions when compared to the CISS index established by the ECB. Specifically, the ΔCoVaR developed in this paper, based on data up to the year 2021, anticipates the stress in the system that the CISS index captures in 2022.

Impact of agricultural and energy prices on the biofuels market through a VAR-VEC model

This study uses a Vector Autoregression - Error Correction Model to examine the price dynamics of Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) in the Portuguese market. The importance of this research is that failure to meet the targets of the Renewable Energy Directive jeopardizes Portugal's efforts to improve the sustainability of the transport sector. The results suggest that FAME prices are susceptible to fluctuations in agricultural commodities, ethanol, and fossil fuels, particularly diesel. Specifically for soy, FAME prices did not return to baseline levels by the end of the period, indicating a persistent impact. The volatility of FAME prices in response to ethanol and agricultural commodity prices underscores the need for strategic interventions to optimize these relationships. In the case of ethanol, this correlation could be strengthened, while in the case of agricultural commodities, feedstock diversification is essential to decouple FAME from first-generation biofuel sources and avoid competition with food crops. Moreover, biodiesel FAME, which serves as substitute and a complement to diesel, has a price sensitivity to changes in diesel prices. Policies and incentives to diversify feedstocks and promote advanced biofuels are essential for maintaining FAME's competitiveness and mitigating diesel price impacts.

Emission trading in a high dimensional context: to what extent are carbon markets integrated with the broader system?

The EU ETS represents the cornerstone of the EU climate policy framework. While most of the studies focus on the determinants of carbon price, this work will provide further insights into the influence of European Emission Allowance (EUA) prices on carbon dioxide trends and variables of the economic-financial-climate-environmental system considering a large set of time series. Results highlighted how CO2 appears to be more influenced by commodity prices, climate variables, and past industrial performances. Furthermore, a shock in carbon prices could potentially exert significant turbulence on the carbon dioxide series, fading in intensity as time goes by. Overall, there appears to be a net positive effect on the influence of carbon prices on the system. However, robustness checks identified how the impact of carbon price on CO2 and other variables of the model is still weak. This work sheds light on the EU ETS's influence on a set of multidimensional variables. Still, overlapping national policies appear to interfere with the EU ETS effectiveness in the EU.