Impact Of Precipitation Changes Research Articles

Impact of precipitation change in the Yangtze River source area on groundwater from the perspective of ground-based and satellite-based observations

In the context of global climate change, the hydrological cycle of the Yangtze River source area has produced significant changes. It is of great practical value to study the influence of regional precipitation changes and precipitation events on regional water resources, especially groundwater. This study uses base flow segmentation and GRACE groundwater reserve calculation technology to examine precipitation’s spatial and temporal variation, especially extreme precipitation events, in the Yangtze River source area. The events analyzed were the extreme precipitation-runoff-base flow response from the Yangtze River source, the extreme precipitation-terrestrial water (surface water and groundwater) response, and the comparison of these events. The findings indicated that extremely strong precipitation, maximum precipitation for five consecutive days, days of moderate rain and above moderate rain intensity precipitation, the longest number of precipitation days, and other extreme precipitation indices had a significantly increasing trend and increased intensity of extreme precipitation events, the regional differences in precipitation trended less significantly. The base flow index gradually increased at a rate of 0.0014 yr-1, suggesting the overall increase of water resources and the contribution rate of groundwater to the runoff was an increased trend . There is a high correlation between the change of water resources in the source area and the change of precipitation, and the increased precipitation influenced an increase in groundwater and regional water resources. These findings inform current knowledge of precipitation-groundwater response mechanisms in alpine and arid regions such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Water addition but not reduction alters plant biomass-diversity relationship.

The relationship between plant aboveground biomass and diversity typically follows a unimodal pattern, showing a positive correlation in resource-poor habitats and a negative correlation in resource-rich environments. Precipitation is a crucial resource for both plant biomass and diversity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, the impact of precipitation changes on the relationship between plant biomass and diversity remains unclear. We conduct a water addition field experiment in a semiarid grassland and identify a unimodal relationship between plant biomass and species richness under ambient conditions. Water addition delays the declining phase of this unimodal curve and shift it upward compared to ambient conditions. Our meta-analysis of water addition experiments conducted across major biomes worldwide (grassland, shrubland, desert, and forest) supports this finding, while water reduction does not alter the biomass-diversity relationship. Water addition increases biomass in all climate but only increases species richness in arid and semiarid climate. Similarly, water reduction decreases biomass in all climate but only reduces species richness in arid and semiarid climate. Species richness in dry subhumid and humid climate does not change significantly. Furthermore, our field experiment shows that water addition increases plant diversity while decreasing soil inorganic nitrogen levels. The increase in one resource, such as water, leads to the scarcity of another, such as nutrient, thus postponing the declining phase of the plant biomass-diversity relationship typically observed in resource-rich habitats. Our research contributes to predicting the plant biomass-diversity relationship under changing precipitation conditions and highlights the complex interplay between water availability, nutrient level, and plant diversity.

The impact of precipitation changes on the safety of railway operations in China under the background of climate change

Global climate change has intensified the water cycle, leading to frequent extreme precipitation events, posing a significant threat to railway infrastructure and safety operations. Based on the analysis of past and future precipitation changes in China, this study investigates the impact of climate change on railway safety operations. The study reveals the following findings: (1) Under the influence of the intensified East Asian summer monsoon and the northward shift of the subtropical high during the 2017–2021 compared to the 2012–2016, precipitation has significantly decreased (120 mm) in the regions south of the Yangtze River and South China, while it has increased (60 mm) in the regions from the eastern of Northwest China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; The operational precipitation risk has decreased for Urumqi, Lanzhou, Qinghai-Tibet Group, Xi’an, and Wuhan railway bureaus (abbreviated as Bureau), while it has increased for Nanchang, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang Bureaus. Particularly noteworthy is that despite a decrease in total annual precipitation for Nanchang bureau (15.3 mm/a), the frequency of intense precipitation events has increased, leading to an increased operational precipitation risk. (2) During the 21st century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that most of the China will experience an increasing trend in precipitation, with significant increases in precipitation observed in the regions south of the Yangtze Rive, South and Southwest China. The higher the greenhouse gas emissions, the more pronounced the increasing trend in precipitation. (3) Compared to the 20th century, under high (SSP5-8.5), medium (SSP2-4.5), and low (SSP1-2.6) forcing scenarios, all projections indicate that the total annual precipitation hours, railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have all increased on a national scale during the 21st century. The operational precipitation risk for railways has also increased. The higher the alert level for railway precipitation (precipitation < inspection < speed limit < closure), the higher the proportion of risk hours compared to the 20th century. By the late 21st century, the railway inspection, speed limit, and closure risk hours have increased by 175%, 463%, and 647%, respectively, compared to the 20th century.

Urban Ecological Quality Assessment Based on Google Earth Engine and Driving Factors Analysis: A Case Study of Wuhan City, China

Ecological quality is a critical factor affecting the livability of urban areas. Remote sensing technology enables the rapid assessment of ecological quality (EQ), providing scientific theoretical support for the maintenance and management of urban ecology. This paper evaluates and analyzes the EQ and its driving factors in the city of Wuhan using remote sensing data from five periods: 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021, supported by the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. By employing principal component analysis, a Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) was constructed to assess the spatiotemporal differences of EQ in Wuhan City. Furthermore, the study utilized the optimal parameter-based geographical detector model to analyze the influence of factors such as elevation, slope, aspect, population density, greenness, wetness, dryness, and heat on the RSEI value in 2021 and further explored the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on the EQ in Wuhan. The results indicate that (1) principal component analysis shows that greenness and wetness positively affect Wuhan’s EQ, while dryness and heat have negative impacts; (2) spatiotemporal analysis reveals that from 2001 to 2021, the EQ in Wuhan showed a trend of initial decline followed by improvement, with the classification grades evolving from poor and average to good and better; (3) the analysis of driving factors shows that all nine indicators have a certain impact on the EQ in Wuhan, with the influence ranking as NDVI > NDBSI > LST > WET > elevation > population density > GDP > slope > aspect; (4) the annual average temperature and precipitation in Wuhan have a non-significant impact on the EQ. The EQ in Wuhan has improved in recent years, but comprehensive management still requires enhancement.

Context‐dependent impact of changes in precipitation on the stability of grassland biomass

Abstract Community stability plays a crucial role in ensuring the consistent provision of ecosystem services despite environmental changes, including alterations in precipitation patterns. Over the past decades, significant progress has been made in understanding the responses of the stability of grassland plant communities and underlying mechanisms, defined as the ratio of the temporal mean biomass to the standard deviation. However, a crucial knowledge gap remains regarding whether the impacts of precipitation on the stability of grassland biomass are contingent upon specific contextual factors. Here, we examined the stability of above‐ and below‐ground biomass in adjacent grass‐ and shrub‐dominated communities through a 7‐year manipulation experiment involving seven precipitation levels: 20%, 40% and 60% decrease, as well as 20%, 40% and 60% increase in natural rainfall, in addition to ambient precipitation. We found that the stability of community biomass was influenced by three contextual factors including the magnitude and directionality of precipitation, above‐ and below‐ground biomass and the type of vegetation. In particular, higher and more intense precipitation resulted in higher stability of above‐ground biomass in both grass‐ and shrub‐dominated communities. Conversely, higher precipitation intensity led to decreased below‐ground biomass stability in grass‐dominated communities but increased below‐ground biomass stability in shrub‐dominated communities. Species stability and species asynchrony consistently played a positive role in explaining the stability of above‐ground biomass in both grass‐ and shrub‐dominated communities. However, species asynchrony negatively influenced below‐ground biomass stability in grass‐dominated communities without a comparable effect in shrub‐dominated communities. The preeminent contribution to the total community biomass was identified in the stability of below‐ground biomass, evident in both grass‐dominated and shrub‐dominated communities. Synthesis. This study highlights that while the specific effects of changes in precipitation may vary depending on the context, the fundamental processes governing biomass stability are consistent. These findings elucidate the desert steppe ecosystems' adaptive response to precipitation variations and emphasize their pivotal role in maintaining ecosystem functions under climatic perturbations. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Response of surface energy fluxes and hydrothermal characteristics to night‐time precipitation changes in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the applicability of the land‐surface model CLM 4.5 in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau by utilizing field observation data from Kabu and Pailong sites. Furthermore, the study investigated the impact of night‐time precipitation changes on radiation, surface energy fluxes and soil hydrothermal characteristics in this region. Results revealed that CLM 4.5 accurately simulated upward shortwave/longwave radiation, surface energy fluxes and soil temperature in this region. However, the simulation of soil moisture exhibited a slight fluctuation of the simulated value during precipitation, resulting in poorer performance during heavy precipitation and a failure to simulate the rapid change of latent heat flux and soil moisture. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that night‐time precipitation significantly influenced upward shortwave/longwave radiation, energy budge and soil hydrothermal processes, with each element changing considerably with changes in precipitation. Surface energy fluxes and hydrothermal characteristics were found to be more sensitive to increased precipitation than decreased precipitation. Additionally, soil moisture was found to play a crucial role in the impact of precipitation changes on surface energy fluxes and hydrothermal characteristics. Furthermore, the study also found that changes in precipitation had a more pronounced effect on relatively dry areas and seasons than already extremely wet areas and seasons. Finally, the variation in soil moisture was found to be restricted by the original soil moisture. In conclusion, this study highlighted the significant influence of night‐time precipitation on surface hydrothermal characteristics and surface energy budget in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

The impact of precipitation change on grain production pattern: new evidence from the northward movement of 400 mm annual precipitation line in China

The impact of precipitation change on grain production pattern: new evidence from the northward movement of 400 mm annual precipitation line in China

Long-term mitigation of drought changes the functional potential and life-strategies of the forest soil microbiome involved in organic matter decomposition.

Climate change can alter the flow of nutrients and energy through terrestrial ecosystems. Using an inverse climate change field experiment in the central European Alps, we explored how long-term irrigation of a naturally drought-stressed pine forest altered the metabolic potential of the soil microbiome and its ability to decompose lignocellulolytic compounds as a critical ecosystem function. Drought mitigation by a decade of irrigation stimulated profound changes in the functional capacity encoded in the soil microbiome, revealing alterations in carbon and nitrogen metabolism as well as regulatory processes protecting microorganisms from starvation and desiccation. Despite the structural and functional shifts from oligotrophic to copiotrophic microbial lifestyles under irrigation and the observation that different microbial taxa were involved in the degradation of cellulose and lignin as determined by a time-series stable-isotope probing incubation experiment with 13C-labeled substrates, degradation rates of these compounds were not affected by different water availabilities. These findings provide new insights into the impact of precipitation changes on the soil microbiome and associated ecosystem functioning in a drought-prone pine forest and will help to improve our understanding of alterations in biogeochemical cycling under a changing climate.

Warming may offset impact of precipitation changes on riverine nitrogen loading

Climate change, especially in the form of precipitation and temperature changes, can alter the transformation and delivery of nitrogen on the land surface and to aquatic systems, impacting the trophic states of downstream water bodies. While the expected impacts of changes in precipitation have been explored, a quantitative understanding of the impact of temperature on nitrogen loading is lacking at landscape scales. Here, using several decades of nitrogen loading observations, we quantify how individual and combined future changes in precipitation and temperature will affect riverine nitrogen loading. We find that, contrary to recent decades, rising temperatures are likely to offset or even reverse previously reported impacts of future increases in total and extreme precipitation on nitrogen runoff across the majority of the contiguous United States. These findings highlight the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the global nitrogen cycle.

Geo-Distribution Patterns of Soil Fungal Community of Pennisetum flaccidum in Tibet.

Pennisetum flaccidum can be used as a pioneer species for the restoration of degraded grasslands and as a high-quality forage for local yak and sheep in alpine regions. The geographical distribution pattern of soil fungal community can modify that of P. flaccidum. A field survey along 32 sampling sites was conducted to explore the geo-distribution patterns of soil fungal community of P. flaccidum in Tibet. Soil fungal species, phylogenetic and function diversity generally had a closer correlation with longitude/elevation than latitude. The geo-distribution patterns of soil fungal species, phylogenetic and function diversity varied with soil depth. Soil fungal species, phylogenetic and function diversity had dissimilar geo-distribution patterns. Precipitation had stronger impacts on total abundance, species α-diversity, phylogenetic α-diversity, and function β-diversity than temperature for both topsoil (0-10 cm depth) and subtopsoil (10-20 cm depth). Furthermore, precipitation had stronger impacts on function α-diversity for topsoil, species β-diversity for topsoil, and phylogenetic β-diversity for subtopsoil than temperature. The combination of species, phylogenetic and function diversity can better reflect geo-distribution patterns of soil fungal community. Compared to global warming, the impact of precipitation change on the variation in soil fungal community of P. flaccidum should be given more attention.

Effects of Land Consolidation and Precipitation Changes on the Balance of Water Supply and Demand in Western Jilin

As an important ecosystem service, water supply is closely related to human well-being. Maintaining the balance of water supply and demand is essential in the sustainable development of a regional economy and society. Taking western Jilin, where the difference between water supply and demand is increasingly prominent, as the research object, from the perspective of land consolidation and precipitation changes, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of water resources supply and demand at the regional and county scales in western Jilin from 2000 to 2018 by the InVEST model and the water resource demand model. The results show that water production in western Jilin did not change significantly before and after land consolidation. The change in planting structure made water demand increase from 3.03 billion m3 to 4.96 billion m3, which reversed the relationship between supply and demand. The impact of precipitation changes on water production is extremely significant. The annual production of water in wet years is 8.05 billion m3, and the annual water production in dry years is 1.08 billion m3. The amount of precipitation can directly change the relationship between the supply and demand of local water resources. The evolution of the water resources supply and demand pattern in western Jilin is the result of the combined effect of land consolidation and precipitation changes. Precipitation mainly affects supply, while land consolidation mainly affects demand.

Rainfall erosivity and climate change: some estimations for the Baltata River basin

The paper assesses the possible impact of changes in precipitation due to global warming on rainfall soil erosion in a small river basin. The Modified Fourier Index (MFI) was selected as an indicator of erosivity. Comparison of this index values in two climatic thirty-years (1991-2010 vs. 1961-1990) has showed that due to insignificant changes in the total amount of annual precipitation, a weak level of erosion hazard, caused by rainfalls in the previous period, has remained in the studied basin under conditions of climate change.

Ecological Stoichiometric Changes and the Synergistic Restoration of Vegetation Concrete Restoration Systems under Different Precipitation Conditions

Based on vegetation-soil nutrient monitoring data under different precipitation conditions, this study investigated the impact of precipitation changes on the ecological restoration process of disturbed slopes. Precipitation change, to a certain extent, changed the carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) content and the stoichiometric ratio of the soil–plant system. With the increase of the weekly precipitation from 10 to 20 mm, the C content of Cynodon and Indigofera Amblyantha Craib on each slope gradually increased, increased by 8.69% and 4.28%, respectively, compared with the initial recovery period, and the N/P of Cynodon increased from 3.81 to 4.94, and the N limit gradually decreased, while the limit of P increased continuously. The efficiency of the coordinated utilization of N and P of the Indigofera Amblyantha Craib increased, which had a certain adaptability to changes in precipitation. The C/N and C/P in the soil first increased and then decreased, and reached the peak at the slope of 15 mm precipitation, while the N/P fluctuated around 0.35 overall. N was an important element restricting the growth of grass, while P was an important influencing element limiting the growth of shrubs. This also showed that soil C, N and P had a good promoting effect on plant growth, and the self-regulating nutrient utilization strategies of different growth forms of plants under different precipitation conditions differed. There was a coupling effect in the contents of C, N, P and their stoichiometric ratio in the soil–plant system, and stoichiometry and elastic ecological interactions jointly controlled the supply and demand of elements in the plants, but there was no consistent temporal pattern of nutrient ecological stoichiometric ratio in the plant–soil system during the recovery process, thus requiring further research and evaluation.

Precipitation and land use alter soil respiration in an Inner Mongolian grassland

Grasslands are facing the threat of climate change and intensive land use. Soil respiration (Rs) in grassland ecosystems can be potentially altered by changes in precipitation and land use. We aimed to quantify the impact of changes in precipitation and common land use practices in an Inner Mongolia grassland, i.e., mowing and grazing, on soil respiration. We performed an in situ experiment with altered precipitation (+ 50%, ambient, and -50%) and land use (control or fencing, mowing, and grazing) to explore their impacts on soil respiration and its autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic (Rh) components. Altered precipitation had stronger impacts on abiotic and biotic drivers than land use, leading to stronger impacts on Rs and its components. Over the 3-year experiment, Rs, Ra and Rh decreased by 36%, 42% and 33% with reduced precipitation and increased by 29%, 36% and 25% with increased precipitation, respectively. Grazing and mowing caused relatively small decreases in Rs compared to fencing (generally < 10%). However, precipitation and land use interactively impacted abiotic and biotic drivers and thus Rs. The decrease in Rs with reduced precipitation was greater with grazing (38%) and mowing (37%) than with fencing (32%). Rs and its components may decrease under the projected decrease in precipitation and may further decrease with grazing and mowing compared to fencing. Therefore, land use should be considered when predicting grassland carbon cycling in response to future precipitation changes.

Effects of precipitation change and nitrogen addition on the composition, diversity, and molecular ecological network of soil bacterial communities in a desert steppe.

Currently, the impact of changes in precipitation and increased nitrogen(N) deposition on ecosystems has become a global problem. In this study, we conducted a 8-year field experiment to evaluate the effects of interaction between N deposition and precipitation change on soil bacterial communities in a desert steppe using high-throughput sequencing technology. The results revealed that soil bacterial communities were sensitive to precipitation addition but were highly tolerant to precipitation reduction. Reduced precipitation enhanced the competitive interactions of soil bacteria and made the ecological network more stable. Nitrogen addition weakened the effect of water addition in terms of soil bacterial diversity and community stability, and did not have an interactive influence. Moreover, decreased precipitation and increased N deposition did not have a superimposed effect on soil bacterial communities in the desert steppe. Soil pH, moisture content, and NH4+-N and total carbon were significantly related to the structure of bacterial communities in the desert steppe. Based on network analysis and relative abundance, we identified Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Cyanobacteria members as the most important keystone bacteria that responded to precipitation changes and N deposition in the soil of the desert steppe. In summary, we comprehensively analyzed the responses of the soil bacterial community to precipitation changes and N deposition in a desert steppe, which provides a model for studying the effects of ecological factors on bacterial communities worldwide.

Projection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change

Abstract. In the context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular, and continuously decreasing water resources. In some regions, the proper growth both in terms of cropping density and surface area of irrigated areas is so significant that it needs to be included in future scenarios. A method for estimating the future evolution of irrigation water requirements is proposed and tested in the Tensift watershed, Morocco. Monthly synthetic crop coefficients (Kc) of the different irrigated areas were obtained from a time series of remote sensing observations. An empirical model using the synthetic Kc and rainfall was developed and fitted to the actual data for each of the different irrigated areas within the study area. The model consists of a system of equations that takes into account the monthly trend of Kc, the impact of yearly rainfall, and the saturation of Kc due to the presence of tree crops. The impact of precipitation change is included in the Kc estimate and the water budget. The anthropogenic impact is included in the equations for Kc. The impact of temperature change is only included in the reference evapotranspiration, with no impact on the Kc cycle. The model appears to be reliable with an average r2 of 0.69 for the observation period (2000–2016). However, different subsampling tests of the number of calibration years showed that the performance is degraded when the size of the training dataset is reduced. When subsampling the training dataset to one-third of the 16 available years, r2 was reduced to 0.45. This score has been interpreted as the level of reliability that could be expected for two time periods after the full training years (thus near to 2050). The model has been used to reinterpret a local water management plan and to incorporate two downscaled climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The examination of irrigation water requirements until 2050 revealed that the difference between the two climate scenarios was very small (&lt; 2 %), while the two agricultural scenarios were strongly contrasted both spatially and in terms of their impact on water resources. The approach is generic and can be refined by incorporating irrigation efficiencies.

Precipitation Drives Nitrogen Load Variability in Three Iowa Rivers

Study regionIowa, a leading agricultural state in the United States is a major source of nitrogen (N) to the Mississippi River. Study FocusThe study evaluated the impact of changes in precipitation, land cover (area under soybean production, Sb), and N fertilizer application (Napp) on variations in streamflow (SF), baseflow (BF) and N-load in the Des Moines, the Iowa, and the Raccoon rivers. New hydrological insights for the regionLn(SF) and Ln(BF) for all three rivers were influenced by the current year (P1) and previous year (P2) precipitations. Presence of P2 in the regression suggested a deficit or excess soil water that influenced fillable pore space causing decreased or increased river flows. The Ln(N-load) for the Raccoon River was also related to P1 and P2 but the Ln(N-load) for the Des Moines and the Iowa rivers were related to P1 with p-values of P2 slightly above α = 0.05 for significance. Presence of P2 in Ln(N-load) regression reflected changes in both fillable porosity and residual soil N. Contributions of Sb and Napp in explaining variations in predictor variables were none to minimal. We conclude that wet climate and not changes in Sb or Napp is the primary reason for recent higher N-loads in these rivers. Under current cropping systems, we suggest directing efforts on treating river water by expanding floodplain interactions to reduce downstream N-loads.

Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

AbstractQuantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

Conversion of grazed pastures to energy cane as a biofuel feedstock alters the emission of GHGs from soils in Southeastern United States

The cultivation of energy cane throughout the Southeastern United States may displace grazed pastures on organic soil (Histosols) to meet growing demands for biofuels. We combined results from a field experiment with a biogeochemical model to improve our understanding of how the conversion of pasture to energy cane during early crop establishment affected soil GHG (CO2, CH4, and N2O) exchange with the atmosphere. GHG fluxes were measured under both land uses during wet, hot and cool, dry times of year, and following a fertilization event. We also simulated the impact of changes in precipitation on GHG exchange. Higher fertilization of cane contributed to greater emission of N2O than pasture during warmer and wetter times of the year. The model predicted that energy cane emitted more nitrogen than pasture during simulated wetter than drier years. The modeled emission factor for N2O was 20 to 30-fold higher than the default value from IPCC (1%), suggesting that the default IPCC value could dramatically underestimate the consequences of this land conversion on the climate system. Predicted soil CH4 and CO2 fluxes were higher in pasture than energy cane, and this difference was not affected by increasing precipitation. Model simulations predicted that soils under first year cane emit more GHGs than pasture, particularly during wet years, but this difference disappeared two years after energy cane establishment. Our results suggest that management practices may be important in determining soil GHG emissions from energy cane on organic soils particularly during the first year of cane establishment.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Generation of Hydroelectric Power—A Case Study in Southern Spain

Climate change could pose a significant threat to the energy sector in various countries. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term impact of changes in precipitation and water availability on hydroelectric production. To do so, the study focuses on three hydroelectric power plants in Southern Spain combining climatological, technical and economic data and projections. A physical model has been designed that reproduces the plants’ operations and incorporates various scenarios for the evolution of contributions to the basin. The results predict a 10 to 49% drop in production by the end of the century, depending on the plant and scenario. This decrease in production, in accordance with our economic and operational hypotheses, would significantly affect the operating margins of the facilities and, in certain scenarios, could reach an economically unsustainable level by the end of the century. An investment analysis has been carried out as well, showing that climate change may jeopardize future investments in similar facilities.