Impact Of Population Change Research Articles

The Impact of Population Changes on the Environment

The Impact of Population Changes on the Environment

The High Cost of Judges: Reconsidering Judicial Pensions and Retirement in an Ageing Population

In recent years there has been unprecedented concern about the impact of population change on Australian society. The concerns come from different quarters. Commentators have variously remarked that fertility is too low, immigration is too high, the population is ageing too rapidly, and that uneven spatial distribution is placing too great a burden on the infrastructure of already crowded cities. As further evidence of the growing interest in population dynamics, in 2010 the Australian Government created a new office of the Minister for Sustainable Population to help guide the development of policies to meet Australia's future population needs.

Changing population characteristics, effect-measure modification, and cancer risk factor identification

Epidemiologic studies have identified a number of lifestyle factors, e.g. diet, obesity, and use of certain medications, which affect risk of colon cancer. However, the magnitude and significance of risk factor-disease associations differ among studies. We propose that population trends of changing prevalence of risk factors explains some of the variability between studies when factors that change prevalence also modify the effect of other risk factors. We used data collected from population-based control who were selected as study participants for two time periods, 1991–1994 and 1997–2000, along with data from the literature, to examine changes in the population prevalence of aspirin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medication (NSAID) use, obesity, and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) over time. Data from a population-based colon cancer case-control study were used to estimate effect-measurement modification among these factors. Sizeable changes in aspirin use, HRT use, and the proportion of the population that is obese were observed between the 1980s and 2000. Use of NSAIDs interacted with BMI and HRT; HRT use interacted with body mass index (BMI). We estimate that as the prevalence of NSAIDs use changed from 10% to almost 50%, the colon cancer relative risk associated with BMI >30 would change from 1.3 to 1.9 because of the modifying effect of NSAIDs. Similarly, the relative risk estimated for BMI would increase as the prevalence of use of HRT among post-menopausal women increased. In conclusion, as population characteristics change over time, these changes may have an influence on relative risk estimates for colon cancer for other exposures because of effect-measure modification. The impact of population changes on comparability between epidemiologic studies can be kept to a minimum if investigators assess exposure-disease associations within strata of other exposures, and present results in a manner that allows comparisons across studies. Effect-measure modification is an important component of data analysis that should be evaluated to obtain a complete understanding of disease etiology.

The impact of population on CO2 emissions: evidence from European countries

This paper analyses the impact of population growth on CO2 emissions in European Union countries. Traditionally, researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth. In this study population is treated as a predictor in the model, instead of being included as part of the dependent variable (per capita emissions), thus relaxing the above-mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity. We also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification. The sample covers the period 1975–1999 for the current European Union members. Our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old EU members, the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified. The different impact of population change on CO2 emissions for the current EU members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the EU.

The importance of the regional/local dimension of sustainable development: An illustrative Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the Jersey economy

This paper uses a multi-period economic-environmental Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to analyse local sustainability policy issues. Our focus is the small, open, labour-constrained regional economy of Jersey. The case of Jersey is of particular interest for two main reasons. The first is the unusually low degree of geographical labour market integration for such a small regional economy. This motivates our treatment of labour as a region-specific factor of production. The second is the availability of high quality, Jersey-specific economic-enviromental data. We employ CGE model simulations to track the impact of changes in population on a number of energy-consumption and pollution indicators in a recursive dynamic framework under alternative hypotheses regarding economic conditions over the time period under consideration. In the case of Jersey, we find that household consumption is the key factor governing the environmental impact of economic disturbances. Therefore the analysis includes an examination of the sensitivity of the simulation results to different assumptions affecting the wage elasticities of labour demand and supply, and the speed of adjustment to equilibrium on the responsiveness of household income to shifts in labour supply.

The Impact of Population on CO2 Emissions: Evidence from European Countries

This paper analyses the impact of population growth on CO2 emissions in European Union countries. Traditionally, researchers have assumed a unitary elasticity of emissions with respect to population growth. In this study population is treated as a predictor in the model, instead of being included as part of the dependent variable (per capita emissions), thus relaxing the above-mentioned assumption of unitary elasticity. We also contribute to the existing literature by taking into account the presence of heterogeneity in the sample and considering a dynamic specification. The sample covers the period 1975-1999 for the current European Union members. Our results show that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional for recent accession countries whereas for old EU members, the elasticity is lower than unity and non significant when the properties of the time series and the dynamics are correctly specified. The different impact of population change on CO2 emissions for the current EU members should therefore be taken into account in future discussions of climate change policies within the EU.

Thirty-year projections for deaths from ischemic stroke in the United States.

The age adjustment of stroke mortality rates may obscure the impact of population changes on the total burden of disease. Deaths from ischemic stroke may rise unless future declines in stroke death rates offset the projected growth in high-risk populations. Using data on ischemic stroke mortality from the National Center of Health Statistics for 1979 to 1998, we fit a logistic model to predict changes in stroke death rates as a function of time for each of 42 sex-race-age groups. Using population projections from the US Census Bureau, we then calculated the expected number of deaths in the United States from ischemic stroke over the next 30 years on the basis of age, sex, and race. Models generally fit historical data well (median R2=0.81; interquartile range, 0.43 to 0.97) and consistently predicted small declines in future death rates. The total predicted number of stroke deaths increased by 98% from 139,000 in 2002 to 275,000 in 2032, whereas the total US population was projected to increase by only 27% in the same period. The largest percentage increases in stroke deaths were predicted to occur in blacks (134%) and nonwhite, nonblack races (221%). If recent trends in ischemic stroke mortality continue, increases in US stroke deaths will outpace overall population growth, with a doubling in deaths over the next 30 years.

THE INFLUENCE OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHIFT FACTORS ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN RED MEAT INDUSTRY

In this paper a spatial partial equilibrium (SPE) model is used to determine the impact of changes in population from a “with” and “without” HIV/AIDS point of view, as well as changes in per capita income. The possible impact of abolishing the Lomé Convention is also investigated. In a “Without HIV/AIDS” population growth scenario demand for beef, sheep meat and pork will increase by 12.01 per cent, 12.22 per cent, and 11.92 per cent, respectively. In a “With HIV/AIDS” population growth scenario demand will only increase by 7.19 per cent, 7.31 per cent and 7.28 per cent for beef, sheep meat and pork, respectively. Most of the increase in demand is met by overseas imports. When per capita income increases the increase in pork consumption is lower than the increases in demand for beef and sheep meat. This can be attributed mainly to the fact that the aggregated income elasticity is considerably lower for pork than it is for the other two red meats. The weifare analysis shows, firstly that HIV/AIDS will have a considerable impact on the general welfare of the country, and secondly the important role government has to play in setting the table for improved economic conditions that will result in increases in the per capita income of people. Finally, the study shows that the abolishment of the Lomé Convention will not have any severe repercussions for the beef sub-sector in South Africa.

Evaluating the impact of population changes in diet, physical activity, and weight status on population risk for colon cancer (United States).

To estimate the effects of observed population-level changes in risk factors on population risk and incidence of disease. Trends in a set of risk factors for colon cancer (vegetable intake, red meat intake, alcohol consumption, physical activity levels, and weight status) were modeled for the US adult population over the years 1975-1995 and combined with relative risk estimates from epidemiologic studies and a probability distribution for the induction period to estimate the percentage change in incidence rates from 1985 to 1995 due to the five risk factors. A sensitivity analysis was performed to account for imprecision related to estimates of trends in behavior and epidemiologic risk. Increased vegetable intake and decreased intakes of red meat and alcohol reduced risk, while reduced physical activity and increased body mass index increased risk for colon cancer. When all five factors were considered together, change in the average population relative risk was small and the risk factors accounted for little of the recently observed decline in incidence. Although these factors have the potential to greatly affect risk of colon cancer and incidence rates, little of that potential was realized since adverse trends neutralized what progress had been made in the areas of vegetables, red meat, and alcohol consumption.

The impact of population change on the growth of mega-cities

The population dynamics of population growth in mega-cities and the contributions of migration to urban growth are described. The policy implications are identified as the need for a continued emphasis on fertility declines, because reductions will have a beneficial effect on reducing the pace of growth of mega-cities. The short-term goal of policy should be to provide urban contraceptive services to female migrants, who should be targeted specifically as a special group. Natural increase will be the main source of growth of mega-cities, and women who migrated during the 1990s will be a part of that natural increase. Reductions in population growth will make it easier for governments to provide services and to manage the large population size in mega-cities, which will continue to exist as long as economic activities are centralized and economic development promotes urbanization and spatial concentration. The emergence of mega-cities with populations of many millions has been a recent and increasing phenomena. The largest cities in 1980 were Tokyo with 16.9 million followed by New York City with 15.6 million. By 1990, the largest mega-cities were Mexico City with 20.2 million, Tokyo with 18.1 million, Sao Paulo with 17.4 million, and New York with 16.2 million. By the year 2000, the expectation is that Mexico City will have 25.6 million, Sao Paulo 22.1 million, Tokyo 19.0 million, Shanghai 17.0 million, and New York 16.8 million. The rankings will change, but the pattern clearly reflects the growth of mega-cities in developing countries. The age structure of urban populations is conducive to population growth. The main component of urban growth in Asia has been migration. Age structure changes have affected migration and will continue to affect fertility in mega-cities. Mega-cities will attract a young population because of the tourist and personnel services sectors which employ large numbers of young people, because of the demand for educated workers who tend to be younger, and because of enhanced opportunities for education. In Asia, economic policies encourage high levels of female labor force participation.

Impact of changes in population and household structure upon the allocation of medical resources in Japan

Every person in Japan is covered by one of the five major health insurance schemes. Among these schemes, the Government sponsored ones for those employed in small and medium enterprises cover a large percentage of the population. This paper studies the impact of aging of the Japanese population on the provision of health care services at the government level and changing allocative patterns by type of household, and the manpower requirements of the programs.

Summary of ‘Impact of Population Changes on Employment in Indonesia‘

Summary of ‘Impact of Population Changes on Employment in Indonesia‘

The Impact of Population Change on Business Activity in Rural America.

The Impact of Population Change on Business Activity in Rural America.

The Impact of Population Change on Business Activity in Rural America. By Kenneth M. Johnson. Westview. 180 pp. $27.50

The Impact of Population Change on Business Activity in Rural America. By Kenneth M. Johnson. Westview. 180 pp. $27.50

The Impact of Population Change on Business Activity in Rural America.

The Impact of Population Change on Business Activity in Rural America.

Organization Adjustment to Population Change in Nonmetropolitan America: A Longitudinal Analysis of Retail Trade

The impact of population change on retailing is examined using longitudinal data for nonmetropolitan counties. Analysis confirms the ecological expectation that population change cannot prevail for long without concomitant adjustments in organization structure. Such adjustments became pronounced as the magnitude and duration of consistent population change increased. As income rose, retail sales grew whether a county gained or lost population: however, population change affected the size of the sales increment. The response to population change included shifts in both the number and operational scale of units. Adjustments in the number of establishments were in the same direction but less than proportionate to population shifts, reflecting organization resistance to unit adjustments. This resistance, coupled with spiraling retail demand, caused employment gains and expansion of organization scale in both growing and declining counties. Because the retail response to population increase was not symmetrical to that for decline, the expectation a single process of organization adjustment could accommodate both growth and decline was rejected. This study examines the impact of population change on the organization structure that supplied retail goods to nonmetropolitan residents between 1929 and 1972. Given the dependence of retailing on the patronage of a spatially proximate clientele, any significant local population shift is expected to necessitate retail adjustments. This expectation derives from the ecological tenet that change in one component of the ecological complex cannot long prevail without concomitant adjustments in other ecological components. Hawley (b), for example, argues an organization cannot continue to operate in its established pattern in the face of substantial popula*I am grateful to Michael Welch, Kirsten Gronbjerg, Amos Hawley, William Bates, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and to Ross Purdy for fostering my interest in the

Demography and Higher Education: Some Theoretical and Empirical Considerations on Their Interrelationships

Since student flows are heavily influenced by demographic trends, demographic developments are naturally of major concern for educational policy planning. However, past experience has shown that the understanding and application of demographic information in the field of such planning has been extremely poor, although there is almost general agreement that demographic developments can be predicted with a higher degree of precision or certainty than economic, social, political, and other developments which influence the system of higher education. Personally, however, I have certain reservations in regard to this position, which will be examined in further detail below. Meanwhile, it may be noted that these relate, first, to the theoretical base and explanatory power of demographic trend estimates in general and, secondly, to the need for disaggregating demographic data on regions, ethnic background, internal migration, etc., in order to undertake the necessary educational policy planning steps at institutional level. The relationship between demography and education is, of course, rather complex: both aspects, the potential impact of population change on education as well as the reciprocal consideration, the influence of education on demographic trends, have to be studied in much more detail in order to formulate solid hypotheses. This paper will limit itself to some selected aspects of the impact of demographic developments upon higher education, namely the educational policy planning issue of how to meet cyclical developments in student enrolments. Closely connected with this will be a discussion of the issue of the teacher market in general and the faculty market in particular as two specific follow-up problems. Finally, it is not intended to offer a more technical methodological oriented introduction to the demographic aspects of educational policy planning even if only a few studies exist in this field, like the one by Morrison (1976).

Health-Care Costs When the Population Changes

Health-care costs when the population changes. This paper uses a theoretical model of the complete economic-demographic system to investigate the impact of population change on the relative burden of health-care costs. The model is used in a number of computer simulation experiments under a variety of as- sumptions about the course of fertility and migration. Our analysis suggests that population changes can be expected to have a sub- stantial impact on the costs of health care in the longer term. However, it seems clear that large cost increases which occur within a decade or so must primarily reflect changes in the quality of services provided. Our analysis suggests also that changes in fertility rates are likely to be of much greater quantitative im- portance than are changes in migration rates.

Impact of population changes on education cost

Abstract This paper has two principal aims: (1) to analyze and measure how the demographic variables—mortality, fertility, and im migration—affect the cost of education; (2) to evaluate what possibilities developing countries, such as those of Latin America, have for a rapid educational improvement. The paper relates demographic and educational variables of three different populations: Sweden, 1840–1965; the United States, 1850–1960; and Latin America, 1930–2000. Three educational variables are also considered: (a) school attendance rates by sex and age; (b) distribution of students of same age by grade; and (c) cost of student by grade. Demographic changes in countries such as Sweden and the United States were favorable for the development of education. For the future, unless an increase of fertility occurs, mortality and fertility changes will not have a significant effect on the cost of education in these countries. In current less developed countries the demographic changes during the past were less favorable to educational development. A future reduction of fertility will significantly help them to achieve a higher educational level.

Notes on Fertility Measurement

In this survey of the field of fertility measurement the author begins by distinguishing 2 polar types of analysis used in fertility measurement. The first he mentions is causal analysis which consists of attempts to provide explanation for fertility behavior as the dependent variable. The second type of analysis discussed is consequential analysis in which the demographic inputs play the role of independent variables in the models of economists and others concerned with the impact of population change on the variables that define their disciplines. Causal analysis based on official statistics and causal analysis based on reproductive histories are described. In discussing measures for consequential analysis the author states that the developments in these measures have been much less impressive than those for causal analysis. For 40 years the dominant indices have been the net reproduction rate the length of generation the intrinsic rate of natural increase and the stable age distribution. The author observes that the causal sector has been too microanalytic and the consequential sector too macroanalytic. He believes that efforts should be made now to develop new models and methods to enlarge the scope of demography sufficiently to turn it into a genuinely rigorous branch of social science.