Impact Of Policy Interventions Research Articles

Modeling stock, material and environmental impacts of circular economy product policies. Trade-offs between early replacement and repair of electric motors

New modeling challenges are accompanying the shift in EU product policy toward an increased focus on circular economy aspects. Combined material flow analysis and life cycle assessment can play an important role in assessing the impact of such policies. A flexible model has been developed that is suitable for the ex-ante impact assessment of the material flows and environmental impacts of a range of circular economy product policies, extending an established approach. The model uses a layered approach, in which material and environmental impacts are derived from product flows via a product database that defines physical properties for product variants. Combined with a stock model, the impact of policy interventions on the whole market can be assessed over time and per life cycle stage. We apply this model in a theoretical case study on electric motors, which compares early replacement of inefficient motors and motor repair with a base case.

Estimating the loss of economic predictability from aggregating firm-level production networks.

To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables-constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors-are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness, and resilience crucially depend on the detailed structure of nonaggregated firm-level production networks (FPNs). Due to nonavailability of data, little is known about how much aggregated sector-based and detailed firm-level-based model predictions differ. Using a nearly complete nationwide FPN, containing 243,399 Hungarian firms with 1,104,141 supplier-buyer relations, we self-consistently compare production losses on the aggregated industry-level production network (IPN) and the granular FPN. For this, we model the propagation of shocks of the same size on both, the IPN and FPN, where the latter captures relevant heterogeneities within industries. In a COVID-19 inspired scenario, we model the shock based on detailed firm-level data during the early pandemic. We find that using IPNs instead of FPNs leads to an underestimation of economic losses of up to 37%, demonstrating a natural limitation of industry-level IO models in predicting economic outcomes. We ascribe the large discrepancy to the significant heterogeneity of firms within industries: we find that firms within one sector only sell 23.5% to and buy 19.3% from the same industries on average, emphasizing the strong limitations of industrial sectors for representing the firms they include. Similar error levels are expected when estimating economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the impact of policy interventions with industry-level IO models. Granular data are key for reasonable predictions of dynamical economic systems.

The impact of policy intervention on international wine demand

Purpose The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China in the short- and long-run, respectively. Design/methodology/approach First, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method is used in this study to evaluate the short-run causal effect of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China. Second, a Bayesian ensemble method is used to predict 2023–2025 wine exports from Australia to China. The disparity between the forecasts and counterfactual prediction which assumes no anti-dumping duties represents the accumulated impact of the anti-dumping duties in the long run. Findings The anti-dumping duties resulted in a significant decline in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China by 92.59%, 99.06% and 90.06%, respectively, in 2021. In the long run, wine exports to China are projected to continue this downward trend, with an average annual growth rate of −21.92%, −38.90% and −9.54% for the three types of wine, respectively. In contrast, the counterfactual prediction indicates an increase of 3.20%, 20.37% and 4.55% for the respective categories. Consequently, the policy intervention is expected to result in a decrease of 96.11%, 93.15% and 84.11% in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China from 2021 to 2025. Originality/value The originality of this study lies in the creation of an economic paradigm for assessing policy impacts within the realm of wine economics. Methodologically, it also represents the pioneering application of the DID and Bayesian ensemble forecasting methods within the field of wine economics.

Multinational Lending Retrenchment after the Global Financial Crisis: The Impact of Policy Interventions

Multinational Lending Retrenchment after the Global Financial Crisis: The Impact of Policy Interventions

The 2022 energy crisis: Fuel poverty and the impact of policy interventions in Australia's National Electricity Market

The war in Ukraine and associated 2022 energy crisis had far-reaching effects, with seaborne prices for coal and gas reaching multiples of their historic averages. While Europe was the epicentre, countries as far away as Australia were impacted. Governments across multiple jurisdictions have since orchestrated very material energy subsidies for households to reduce the adverse effects, with fiscal estimates across EU member states ranging from 0.5 to 7% of GDP. As a major energy exporter, the Australian Government took a different policy pathway by targeting the source of electricity tariff increases, viz. imposing price caps of $125/t and $12/GJ for coal and gas, respectively. Some state governments in Australia also revised their household energy hardship policies. This article analyses the level of fuel poverty before- and after- the array of Commonwealth and State policy interventions. Commonwealth policy had the effect of moderating forecast electricity tariff increases from 35% to 16.5%, which benefits all customers. However, State Government customer hardship policy remains vitally important and makes the dominant contribution in reducing fuel poverty.

The Impact of Policy Interventions on Systemic Risk across Banks

What is the impact of policy interventions on the systemic risk of banks? To answer this question, we analyze a comprehensive sample that combines an original set of bank-specific bailout events with the balance sheets of key affected and nonaffected European banks between 2005 and 2014. We find a positive and significant association of guarantees with systemic risk that is somewhat weaker in the long run when the regulator appoints members to the supervisory board. The short run association between recapitalizations and systemic risk is also positive for large and less capitalized banks, while in the long run, recapitalizations are linked with reduced systemic importance, especially for less profitable banks and in cases when the regulator limits management pay. Liquidity injections are positively linked with systemic risk, but the long-run effect is mitigated for small or better capitalized banks. In the short run, injecting liquidity is associated with reduced systemic risk when the regulator imposes restrictions on supervisory board composition or on management pay or capital payouts.

A cloud's silver lining? The impact of policy interventions on new and maturing technology ventures' online recruitment

AbstractResearch summaryWe synthesize the external enablement (EE) framework with insights from labor economics and strategic human capital to theorize how restrictive policy interventions shape technology ventures' employee recruitment, attending to both sides of the hiring dyad. We engage in a quantitative study of over 220,000 recruiting interactions between technology ventures and candidates on a prominent digital networking platform surrounding the early COVID‐19 pandemic policy responses. We find that firms' recruitment declined significantly while candidates' responsiveness increased during the early COVID‐19 policy interventions. In turn, young technology ventures were enabled to hire more during the interventions, whereas maturing ventures were enabled to hire differently—acquiring candidates with greater entrepreneurial orientation. Our work extends the EE framework to human resource strategies and to heterogeneous enablement across firm age.Managerial summaryHiring is a critical task for young and maturing venture firms, and environmental disruptions can impinge heavily on recruiting processes. We study how restrictive policy interventions shape technology ventures' employee recruitment. Examining over 220,000 recruiting interactions on a major digital platform before and during the early COVID‐19 policy responses, we find that restrictive policy interventions alter the technology venture labor market, deterring some firms from recruiting while making others more successful in their continued hiring efforts. Furthermore, we discover that maturing firms are more adaptive than young firms in their selection of candidates during policy interventions—seeking employees with more entrepreneurial characteristics.

Impact of Policy Interventions on Oxycodone Prescribing in Queensland, Australia: An Uncontrolled Interrupted Time Series Study.

IntroductionOpioid prescribing rates are continuing to increase in Australia in line with prescribing rates seen internationally. Prescribing limits are one policy strategy to reduce short-term opioid prescribing, but there is limited evidence of their impact.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to assess the impact of state and national policy interventions on changes to oxycodone 5 mg discharge prescriptions in public hospitals using electronic prescribing in Queensland, Australia by evaluating the proportion of oxycodone 5 mg discharge prescriptions written for ≤ 10 tablets across the study period.MethodThis research utilised a retrospective uncontrolled interrupted time-series design and was undertaken at 12 public hospitals using electronic prescribing from December 2018 to February 2021. The study analysed the impact of two sequential policy interventions that limited the recommended quantity of oxycodone 5 mg on discharge for all hospitalised patients. The first state-wide policy came into effect on 19 September 2019 and the second national policy came into effect on 1 June 2020.ResultsOver the 27-month period, there were 110,728 discharge prescriptions written in the 12 Queensland hospitals for oxycodone 5 mg. During the baseline period, approximately 50.7% (95% CI 49.5–51.8) of all oxycodone 5 mg prescriptions were from tablet quantities of ≤ 10 tablets. After the implementation of the state-wide policy, the proportion increased by 9% (95% CI 7.4–10.7; p = 0.001). The implementation of the national policy increased the proportion of oxycodone 5 mg prescriptions written for ≤10 tablets by 9.8% (95% CI 8.1–11.5; p < 0.001).ConclusionsRestrictive prescribing policies at a state and national level may have resulted in decreased quantities of oxycodone 5 mg prescriptions provided on discharge from public hospitals using electronic prescribing in Queensland, Australia. Despite these positive results, continued multi-faceted policy efforts and individual tailored interventions are necessary to ensure safe and judicious opioid prescribing.

Exploration of Preventable Hospitalizations for Colorectal Cancer with the National Cancer Control Program in Taiwan.

Background: Causing more than 40,000 deaths each year, cancer is one of the leading causes of mortality and preventable hospitalizations (PH) in Taiwan. To reduce the incidence and severity of cancer, the National Cancer Control Program (NCCP) includes screening for various types of cancer. A cohort study was conducted to explore the long-term trends in PH/person-years following NCCP intervention from 1997 to 2013. Methods: Trend analysis was carried out for long-term hospitalization. The Poisson regression model was used to compare PH/person-years before (1997–2004) and after intervention (2005–2013), and to explore the impact of policy intervention. Results: The policy response reduced 26% for the risk of hospitalization; in terms of comorbidity, each additional point increased the risk of hospitalization by 2.15 times. The risk of hospitalization doubled for each 10-year increase but was not statistically significant. Trend analysis validates changes in the number of hospitalizations/person-years in 2005. Conclusions: PH is adopted as an indicator for monitoring primary care quality, providing governments with a useful reference for which to gauge the adequacy, accessibility, and quality of health care. Differences in PH rates between rural and urban areas can also be used as a reference for achieving equitable distribution of medical resources.

COVID-19 and Its Impact on Financial Markets and the Real Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted financial markets and the real economy worldwide. These extraordinary events prompted large monetary and fiscal policy interventions. Recognizing the unusual nature of the shock, the academic community has produced an impressive amount of research during the last year. Macro-finance models have been extended to analyze the impact of epidemics. Empirical papers study the origins and consequences of the disruptions and the impact of policy interventions. New research evaluates the ongoing financial fragility and its relation to previous episodes and regulations. This special issue contains early contributions to this important and rapidly developing literature.1

COVID-19 and Its Impact on Financial Markets and the Real Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted financial markets and the real economy worldwide. These extraordinary events prompted large monetary and fiscal policy interventions. Recognizing the unusual nature of the shock, the academic community has produced an impressive amount of research during the last year. Macro-finance models have been extended to analyze the impact of epidemics. Empirical papers study the origins and consequences of the disruptions and the impact of policy interventions. New research evaluates the ongoing financial fragility and its relation to previous episodes and regulations. This special issue contains early contributions to this important and rapidly developing literature.

Sugar sweetened beverages attributable disease burden and the potential impact of policy interventions: a systematic review of epidemiological and decision models

BackgroundAround 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions.MethodsWe carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model’s features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded.ResultsWe identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model’s outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%).Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%).ConclusionsThere is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption.PROSPERO protocol numberCRD42020121025.

Forecasting price index of finger millet (Eleusine coracana) in India under policy interventions

Millets are the major substitute for cereals such as rice and wheat. For developing country like India, millets hold immense importance as the cost of production is low and has high nutritional values. Various policy interventions are made by government of India from time to time to popularise its consumption and production. Few major policy interventions were made in last decade and inclusion of coarse cereals under Food Security Bill is one among them. Keeping this in mind, the present study was carried out at ICAR- Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi during 2018 to know the impact of policy interventions on the price index of Ragi. Further, we have introduced these interventions in the model using structural break analysis. The volatile Ragi price index series were modelled and forecasted using popular class of Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models and its asymmetric extensions. The results indicated improvement in modelling and forecasting performance of the models after incorporation of the policy interventions. Study has empirically highlighted the positive impact of policies introduced.

The ‘Problem Represented To Be’ in the Social Protection Policy Regimes of Ethiopia

Policy analysis needs to go beyond the conventional ‘problem solving’ approach to interrogating ‘problem representations’ within policy documents. Numerous studies on social protection in Ethiopia, and in sub-Saharan Africa at large have been confined to studying the impact of policy interventions. Studies that aimed to scrutinize policy documents for their ‘problematization’ of issues and ‘problem representations’ in the Foucauldian sense are in dearth. This study used document analysis as a method and Bacchi’s (2009a) ‘What is the Problem Represented to be’ (WPR) model as its analytic frame to interrogate the ‘problem representations’ of the Developmental Social Welfare Policy (DSWP) and the present Social Protection Policy of Ethiopia. The findings suggest that though there is improvement from the earlier to the current policy, ‘problem representations’ of both were limited in terms of what they could deliver, for they were framed by targeting theory, having the ‘resource scarcity’ excuse. This was mainly reflected in the policy regimes’ ‘problematization’ of issues and ‘subjectification’ of beneficiaries.

Nutrition Disparities and Cardiovascular Health.

This review is an assessment of the state of the science on nutrition disparities and their contribution to disparities in cardiovascular health. Nutrition disparities remain pervasive by race/ethnicity, sex/gender, socioeconomic status, and geography. They are rooted in differences in social, cultural, and environmental determinants of health, behavioral and lifestyle factors, and the impact of policy interventions. Systematic differences in diet quality, dietary patterns, and nutrient intakes contribute to cardiovascular disparities and are mediated by microbiota, and CVD risk factors including high levels of blood pressure, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and glucose; oxidative stress, pro-inflammatory cytokines, and endothelial dysfunction. Despite the progress made in nutrition research, important gaps persist that signal the need for more effective interventions at multiple levels to reduce cardiovascular disparities. Research opportunities include (1) exploring the gene-nutrient-environment interactions in the context of ancestral diversity; (2) investigating the causal link between diet and gut microbiota and impact of social determinants of health; (3) understanding resilience; (4) testing the effectiveness of multi-level interventions that address social and environmental determinants; and (4) supporting intervention research informed by validated implementation science frameworks.

Modeling the control of COVID-19: impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors

In this article we propose a dynamical model with seven compartments to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in China. The home quarantine strategy has played a vital role in controlling the disease spread. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is obtained. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed. Attention that the quarantine period must be long enough. Once the control strategy is removed, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. In the study, a comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors. The effectiveness of vaccination is also considered in the model. We design detailed vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of large scale vaccination. For more information see https://ejde.math.txstate.edu/Volumes/2020/23/abstr.html

Towards a more direct policy feedback in circular economy monitoring via a societal needs perspective

The increasing focus on circular economy at the level of governments and policy requires the development of appropriate indicators to effectively monitor the progress towards the circular economy. Currently two very different types of indicator areas are under development: (i) monitoring frameworks based on macro indicators that summarize the progress at (supra)national level, and (ii) micro indicators tailored towards assessing circularity at the level of products. It is not possible to obtain sufficiently direct feedback about the impact of policy interventions by either macro or micro indicators alone. In this paper, a conceptual approach is developed that aims to bridge the gap between the micro and macro level with meso level indicators, and thus ultimately deliver more direct feedback for policymakers, via the insertion of an extra level of meso indicators in between the macro and the micro level. These indicators have been extracted from a dedicated workshop that involved policy, sector and societal stakeholders. The aim of these indicators is to report on progress towards circular economy objectives based on the fulfillment of societal needs. In this way the consumption perspective is given a central position, and the role of circular business models is acknowledged. Following the development of the concept, the next steps towards tailored, flexible and agile monitoring frameworks for circular economy at (supra)national and regional level are outlined. The paper concludes with an illustrative example of the framework applied to the mobility system.

Examining the Evidence on the Impact of Nutrition Policies on Child Health and Undernutrition Globally: A Scoping Review (P22-017-19)

Abstract Objectives To summarize the evidence on the impact of nutrition policies on improving health among children in low-, middle- and high-income countries (LMHICs). Methods A scoping review was conducted to map and describe peer-reviewed studies evaluating the impact of population-level nutrition policies on child health and undernutrition (using primary data) in LMHICs. We systematically searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and PAIS Index for public policy, to identify eligible studies. Data on key study characteristics, including research design, type of nutrition policy, time span of policy, child's age at outcome assessment, and types of outcomes assessed, were abstracted. Abstract screening and data abstraction were conducted in duplicate and reconciled. Results Of the 5646 abstracts screened, 83 studies were included. The majority of studies were conducted in upper-middle or high-income settings (66%, 54/83 studies) (Figure 1). Most studies were observational study design (49%, 41/83 studies), evaluated regional/sub-national policies (68%, 56/83 studies), reported on mandatory policies (71%, 59/83 studies), were related to micronutrient food fortification and/or supplementation (70%, 58/83 studies), and assessed outcomes among children &lt;5 years of age (55%, 46/83 studies). Iodine deficiency disorders (40%, 33 studies) and neural tube defects (18%, 15 studies) were the most commonly assessed child health outcomes. The impact of policy intervention on outcomes, such as low birth weight, breastfeeding rates, vitamin A deficiencies, and child growth, were assessed less frequently. Policies were largely implemented between 1990–2000 (36%, 30/83 studies) and studies mostly evaluated effects within a year (28%, 23/83) or within 2–5 years since policy implementation (13%, 11/83 studies). Conclusions Among the studies reviewed, nutrition policies were commonly associated with improved child nutrition and health. However, current evidence is primarily based on regional studies from high-income settings evaluating the effect of micronutrient food fortification and/or supplementation policies on a narrow set of outcomes. Further research is needed to assess the impact of a broader range of nutrition policies on child health, particularly in LMICs. Funding Sources Funding for this research was provided by the 2017 SickKids Centre for Global Child Health Catalyst Grant Competition. Supporting Tables, Images and/or Graphs

Impact of Policy Interventions on Postoperative Opioid Prescribing.

To assess postoperative opioid prescribing in response to state and organizational policy changes. We used an observational study design at an academic medical center in the Northeast United States over a time during which there were two important influences: 1) implementation of state rules regarding opioid prescribing and 2) changes in organization policies reflecting evolving standards of care. Results were summarized at the surgical specialty and procedure level and compared between baseline (July-December 2016) and postrule (July-December 2017) periods. We analyzed data from 17,937 procedures from July 2016 to December 2017, two-thirds of which were outpatient. Schedule II opioids were prescribed in 61% of cases and no opioids at all in 28%. The median morphine milligram equivalent (MME) prescribed at discharge decreased 40%, from 113 MME in the baseline period to 68 MME in the postrule period. Decreases were seen across all the surgical specialties. Postoperative opioid prescribing at the time of hospital discharge decreased between 2016 and 2017 in the setting of targeted and replicable state and health care organizational policies. Policies governing the use of opioids are an effective and adoptable approach to reducing opioid prescribing following surgery.

Complex systems modeling for evaluating potential impact of traffic safety policies: a case on drug-involved fatal crashes

Driving under the influence of illicit drugs is a critical road safety and public health concern. The U.S. National Drug Control Strategy has set a goal in 2010 to lower drugged driving significantly. In this study we presented a complex systems approach and developed a system dynamics (SD) model of drugged driving for assessing the impact of drugged driving per se law on the crash fatalities over time. The experimental analyses presented the behavioral change on the trend of number of annual drug-related fatally injured drivers when per se law is implemented with certain effect and investigated on the impact of drugged driving per se law on the number drug-related fatally injured drivers. By considering multiple interrelated factors that may influence drugged driving behaviors, the SD model was helpful in analyzing the potential “real world” impact of policy interventions on improving roadway safety and the behavior of drivers given the road infrastructure. Analyses showed that per se law would have negative exponential effect on the drugged driving fatalities over time and the policy effect would require time to be visible. In addition, combining policies of drugged driving and investing on public transportation would cause a higher change over time on reversing the trend of number of drugged driving-related crashes, however, cost effectiveness of policies still need further investigation.