Impact Of Extreme Weather Events Research Articles

The Impact of Extreme Events and Climate Change on Agricultural and Fishery Enterprises in Central Vietnam

Vietnam is located in the tropical monsoon region and it often faces many types of extreme weather events, especially storms and droughts. In addition to the effect of climate change, extreme weather events have been becoming more complicated and difficult to predict, causing heavy losses to many areas and economic sectors of the country. These problems impose a great threat to the country to achieve its socio-economic targets and sustainable development goals. This study uses a Riparian approach integrated with two-stage Hsiao method using a panel dataset from 2000–2018 to examine the impact of extreme weather events and climate change on the output of agriculture and fishery enterprises in the Central and Central Highlands regions of Vietnam. Findings from the study indicate that extreme weather events and climate change have a negative impact on agriculture and fishery enterprises in the regions. Specifically, the model results show that the value-added loss to agriculture and fishery enterprises as the impact of extreme weather events and climate change may escalate from billion VND 3597.72 to 18,891.2 under different climate change scenarios. The results also indicate the impact of various factors regarding extreme weather events and climate change on the efficiency of enterprises in the study area. Findings from this study provide insights on the impacts of extreme weather events and climate change on value-added of enterprises in the study regions and help to propose appropriate solutions to adapt and mitigate their impacts in the future.

Fair weather forecasting? The shortcomings of big data for sustainable development, a case study from Hubballi‐Dharwad, India

AbstractSustainable urban mobility is an essential component of sustainable development but requires careful planning in rapidly growing urban areas. This paper investigates the value and limitations of Big Data for evaluating transport policies, plans, and projects in Hubballi‐Dharwad, India. Results show how Big Data can enable the outcomes of transport interventions to be evaluated more readily than conventional transport analysis. However, the analysis also found that this data may be less able to detect the impacts of travel behaviours in informal settlements, and the impact of extreme weather events. These potential shortcomings, as well as a lack of transparency around the methodology and data sources used by sources of Big Data, could generate unintended consequences and biases in transport planning. Reflecting on these challenges, and the wider implications for urban governance, we conclude that there is an urgent need for Big Data and other technical advances in urban modelling to be seen as compliments to, rather than substitutes for, wider methods of knowledge generation in urban areas.

Wearable sensing techniques to understand pedestrian-level outdoor microclimate affecting heat related risk in urban parks

Around the world people are rapidly moving to cities. The rapid urbanization has led to changes in land use and land cover, which (i) modify the urban surface energy balance making the cities hotter than the surrounding rural area, (ii) exacerbate the impact of extreme weather events like heatwaves and (iii) lead to poor quality of life. City administrations around the world are undertaking drastic measures to mitigate extreme heat. Here, in this study we test a wearable sensing platform to both study pedestrian-level microclimate boundary conditions as well as the impact of urban greening on moderating excess heat in dense urban areas. The experiment presented here was conducted in New York City. Typically, the urban thermal state is estimated by means of direct observations from ground-based sensors, satellite based remote sensing techniques, and high-resolution urban climate modeling, all of which are too coarse to resolve pedestrian-level impacts, a key parameter in determining heat stress for citizens occupying the outdoors. Here a wearable and a portable sensing apparata were used to monitor key environmental parameters - air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, mean radiant temperature and solar radiation. The coupled monitoring platform included multiple sensors and a wireless data logging system which were all prototyped by the authors on open source technologies. The sensor platform was able to accurately map the thermal environment of multiple dense urban spaces, being to reproduce the spatial variability in key microclimate parameters, and the performance was comparable to traditional stationary ground-based weather stations. The results, which may be of key help also for validating microclimate forecasting models, indicate high spatial variability in temperature, humidity and solar radiation within the same urban parks. Our findings also indicate that on average small urban parks in a dense urban setting were able to reduce the air temperature by 3–7 °C in New York City with major gains during the mid-afternoon periods.

Impact of marine heatwaves for sea turtle nest temperatures.

There are major concerns about the ecological impact of extreme weather events. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs) are an increasing threat causing, for example, recent devastation to coral reefs around the world. We show that these impacts extend to adjacent terrestrial systems and could negatively affect the breeding of endangered species. We demonstrate that during an MHW that resulted in major coral bleaching and mortality in a large, remote marine protected area, anomalously warm temperatures also occurred on sea turtle nesting beaches. Granger causality testing showed that variations in sea surface temperature strongly influenced sand temperatures on beaches. We estimate that the warm conditions on both coral reefs and sandy beaches during the MHW were unprecedented in the last 70 years. Model predictions suggest that the most extreme female-biased hatchling sex ratio and the lowest hatchling survival in nests in the last 70 years both occurred during the heatwave. Our work shows that predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of MHWs will likely have growing impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches as well as other terrestrial coastal environments.

Insuring homes against extreme weather events: a systematic review of the research

Home insurance for extreme weather events is a significant security mechanism not only for individual households but for global finance. As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, home insurance has been identified by governments as a critical tool for climate adaptation and disaster resilience. However, the growing research literature on the interactions between household insurance and extreme climatic events has not previously been systematically reviewed. In this paper, we analyse 175 original peer-reviewed empirical research papers on this subject, published between 2009 and 2018. We identify areas of research focus, themes, spatial and temporal patterns, and knowledge gaps, and examine policy implications of these findings. We find that an overall focus on flood insurance leaves unanswered questions about the different insurantial challenges posed by storms and wildfire. We suggest existing technocratic and calculative insurance narratives obscure the political and moral assumptions embedded within them, and that these assumptions warrant further investigation in the context of socially legitimate insurance against the impact of extreme weather events.

Weathering the Weather: Does Extreme Weather Affect the Cost and Delay of an Audit?

We examine the impact of extreme weather events on the cost of an audit. We measure impact as the number of days per year a firm experiences an extreme weather event of any type (e.g., drought, floods, storms, wildfires) in its metropolitan statistical area (MSA). We first find that auditors charge significantly higher fees for firms exposed to more extreme weather days in the past, suggesting that auditors consider previous extreme weather risk exposure a material business risk. No one weather type dominates this finding. Second, auditors charge higher fees for firms experiencing abnormal increases in extreme weather days contemporaneously. This positive relation also strengthens for unanticipated weather events occurring after the fiscal yearend but before the audit report date. Third, we find that extreme weather events generate significantly higher audit fees when the auditor and the client locate in the same MSA.

Spatial Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of the Flood Risk: Institutional Actions, Opportunities and Challenges

The research was inspired by the increasing impact of extreme weather events and changing climate patterns on flood-prone regions and cities, and the consequent human and economic costs. Despite global efforts for flood resilience and climate adaptation involving climate analysts, economists, social scientists, politicians, hydrological engineers, spatial planners, and policymakers, it is only partially clear how best to construct resilience measures and implement concrete initiatives. The complexity of institutions is a key factor that is often neglected, and which needs further investigation. The thesis examines the institutional arrangements that determine the role of spatial planning in managing flood risk, through an in-depth case study of Guangzhou, one of the most vulnerable cities in China and globally. The thesis employs theories of historical institutionalism, planning procedure and planning tools, policy framing and collaborative governance, to explore the mechanisms and factors that influence the creative planning and design process. Content analysis, GIS-based mapping, stakeholder analysis and TOWS analysis are used to investigate data from official policy documents, grey literature, geo-information data and interview scripts. The findings indicate that institutional arrangements, such as long-established planning traditions, formal planning procedures and tools, policy framing patterns and contextual organisational factors, determine spatial planning’s role in managing flood risk. They do this through (1) the extent of the changeability of an established planning system towards expanded flood resilience measures; (2) the performance of cross-level communication and boundary-spanning work between planning and water management; (3) the legal framework that planners and hydrological engineers follow; and (4) the capacities of planning and water management institutions to work on flood issues. This research shows how to apply knowledge from policy science, political science, institutional science and administration, to analyse the nature of the planning process in tackling the urgent challenge of flood risk and climate change.

Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Hydromorphology of UK Rivers

In this study, we assessed the effects of extreme weather events on Hydro-morphological Quality Elements in rivers of the United Kingdom alongside other pressures that will provide significant challenges for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive in the UK in terms of cost-effectiveness and sustainability. While observed meteorological data and river data sets were used for assessing changes in river systems and weather patterns, for future assessments, UK Climate Projections 2018 data was used. The studies in the literature have shown that during periods of extreme events, the river hydro-morphology is affected especially in terms of river flows, sediments and riparian zones such as draughts, and intense and heavy rainfall leading to reduced or exceptionally high flow respectively. Reduced flows can lead to the loss of habitat of aquatic organisms and an increase in fish deaths. Whilst increased river flows lead to changes of the hydro-morphology of rivers including changes to sediment dynamics and channels, rivers are also under negative effects of anthropogenic hydro-morphological pressures such as building dams and water abstractions. Furthermore, changes in river hydro-morphology can cause other problems such as increasing water temperature and decreasing dissolved oxygen, and thereby degrading Biological Quality Elements and Physico-Chemical Quality Elements. To deal with and mitigate these problems, a holistic view of water policy that considers climate change projections, reduces water demand, changes agricultural and urban land use practices, improves water availability and quality is required.

Impact of Climate Change on the Production of Coffea arabica at Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Adapting coffee production to climate change is a significant challenge requiring a detailed understanding of local climatic change patterns and the consequences, both real and perceived, for coffee production. To this end, we examined changes in precipitation at Mt. Kilimanjaro over the last two decades and conducted twelve focus group discussions to obtain farmers’ perceptions on climate change, the impact of extreme weather events on coffee production and the potential of shade trees as an adaptation strategy. Despite an increase in total annual precipitation, farmers are still confronted with droughts due to a shift in seasons. We found a delayed onset of the main rainy season and showed that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole contributes to the increase in precipitation during the short rainy season. Farmers clearly described the impacts of drought or excess rainfall on coffee production during flowering, maturation, and harvest. Thus, adaptation strategies need to be tailored such that specific coffee development stages are buffered against the effects of droughts, shorter wet seasons, and less frequent but heavier rainfall events. To develop the potential of shade trees as an effective adaptation strategy, optimum shade density, specific tree species, and management practices need to be identified.

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Sub-Saharan African Child and Adolescent Mental Health: A Systematic Review of Sparse Research Findings

Background: Over the past 10-15 years there has been increasing attention on the potential impact of extreme weather events (EWE) on children’s mental health. Because sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing an increase in the frequency and severity of these events, we decided it was necessary to conduct a systematic review. The focus was to examine research findings on the direct and indirect impacts of EWE on the mental health of children and adolescents living in SSA to inform protective adaptation strategies and promote resilience. Methods: In 2020 we conducted a systematic review in line with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and a review of the grey literature. The systematic review and grey literature search identified 1342 studies. Findings: The titles and abstracts of 858 articles and grey literature were assessed for eligibility (e.g., mental health outcomes for children and adolescents linked to exposure to an EWE in SSA) with 21 articles identified for full-text review. Of these, only two were eligible for full review and both focused on extreme flooding events and associated psychological distress. Several protective factors were identified (e.g., age, sex, encouragement, and shared hardship) that ameliorated the psychological distress. Interpretations: There is an alarming lack of research focusing specifically on the mental health of youth exposed to EWE in SSA, where EWE, especially extreme heat, flooding and droughts, continue to increase. The indication is that children and adolescents living in SSA are at risk of mental health impacts such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. With the severe shortage of SSA-specific research, SSA decision-makers, planners and adaptation strategy developers are not guided by local and regional evidence and may be missing areas of concern and opportunities for prevention. Funding Information: No funding was received for this work Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Spatial Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of the Flood Risk

The research was inspired by the increasing impact of extreme weather events and changing climate patterns on flood-prone regions and cities, and the consequent human and economic costs. Despite global efforts for flood resilience and climate adaptation involving climate analysts, economists, social scientists, politicians, hydrological engineers, spatial planners, and policymakers, it is only partially clear how best to construct resilience measures and implement concrete initiatives. The complexity of institutions is a key factor that is often neglected, and which needs further investigation. The thesis examines the institutional arrangements that determine the role of spatial planning in managing flood risk, through an in-depth case study of Guangzhou, one of the most vulnerable cities in China and globally. The thesis employs theories of historical institutionalism, planning procedure and planning tools, policy framing and collaborative governance, to explore the mechanisms and factors that influence the creative planning and design process. Content analysis, GIS-based mapping, stakeholder analysis and TOWS analysis are used to investigate data from official policy documents, grey literature, geo-information data and interview scripts. The findings indicate that institutional arrangements, such as long-established planning traditions, formal planning procedures and tools, policy framing patterns and contextual organisational factors, determine spatial planning’s role in managing flood risk. They do this through (1) the extent of the changeability of an established planning system towards expanded flood resilience measures; (2) the performance of cross-level communication and boundary-spanning work between planning and water management; (3) the legal framework that planners and hydrological engineers follow; and (4) the capacities of planning and water management institutions to work on flood issues. This research shows how to apply knowledge from policy science, political science, institutional science and administration, to analyse the nature of the planning process in tackling the urgent challenge of flood risk and climate change.

Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida

We develop an additive Cox proportional hazard model with time-varying covariates, including spatio-temporal characteristics of weather events, to study the impact of weather extremes (heavy rains and tropical cyclones) on the probability of mortgage default and prepayment. We estimate the model on a portfolio of mortgages in Florida, consisting of 69,046 loans and 3,707,831 loan- month observations with localization data at the five-digit ZIP code level. We find a statistically significant and non-linear impact of tropical cyclone intensity on default as well a significant impact of heavy rains in areas with large exposure to flood risks. These findings confirm existing results in the literature and also provide estimates of the impact of the extreme event characteristics on mortgage risk, e.g. the impact of tropical cyclones on default more than doubles in magnitude when moving from a hurricane of category two to a hurricane of category three or more. We build on the identified effect of exposure to flood risk (in interaction with heavy rainfall) on mortgage default to perform a scenario analysis of the future impacts of climate change using the First Street flood model, which provides projections of exposure to floods in 2050 under RCP 4.5. We find a systematic increase in risk under climate change amounting to 1 percentage point in average and much more pronounced in the tail of the distribution, with an increase of 7 percentage points of the default probability at the 99th percentile of the mortgage distribution.

The Impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of extreme weather events on the economies as well as the interaction between business and financial cycles. Results from the empirical analysis suggest that extreme weather events impact asymmetrically across the different phases of the economy and heterogeneously across the EU countries. Moreover, we highlight how the manufacturing output, a component of the industrial production index, constitutes the main channel through which climate shocks impact the EU economies.

Spatial Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of the Flood Risk

The research was inspired by the increasing impact of extreme weather events and changing climate patterns on flood-prone regions and cities, and the consequent human and economic costs. Despite global efforts for flood resilience and climate adaptation involving climate analysts, economists, social scientists, politicians, hydrological engineers, spatial planners, and policymakers, it is only partially clear how best to construct resilience measures and implement concrete initiatives. The complexity of institutions is a key factor that is often neglected, and which needs further investigation. The thesis examines the institutional arrangements that determine the role of spatial planning in managing flood risk, through an in-depth case study of Guangzhou, one of the most vulnerable cities in China and globally. The thesis employs theories of historical institutionalism, planning procedure and planning tools, policy framing and collaborative governance, to explore the mechanisms and factors that influence the creative planning and design process. Content analysis, GIS-based mapping, stakeholder analysis and TOWS analysis are used to investigate data from official policy documents, grey literature, geo-information data and interview scripts. The findings indicate that institutional arrangements, such as long-established planning traditions, formal planning procedures and tools, policy framing patterns and contextual organisational factors, determine spatial planning’s role in managing flood risk. They do this through (1) the extent of the changeability of an established planning system towards expanded flood resilience measures; (2) the performance of cross-level communication and boundary-spanning work between planning and water management; (3) the legal framework that planners and hydrological engineers follow; and (4) the capacities of planning and water management institutions to work on flood issues. This research shows how to apply knowledge from policy science, political science, institutional science and administration, to analyse the nature of the planning process in tackling the urgent challenge of flood risk and climate change.

Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Bacterial Community Composition of a Temperate Humic Lake

Extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity as climate change continues. Heterotrophic bacteria play a critical role in lake ecosystems, yet little research has been done to determine how they are affected by such extremes. The purpose of this study was to use high-throughput sequencing to explore the bacterial community composition of a humic oligotrophic lake on the North Atlantic Irish coast and to assess the impacts on composition dynamics related to extreme weather events. Samples for sequencing were collected from Lough Feeagh on a fortnightly basis from April to November 2018. Filtration was used to separate free-living and particle-associated bacterial communities and amplicon sequencing was performed for the 16S rRNA V4 region. Two named storms, six high discharge events, and one drought period occurred during the sampling period. These events had variable, context-dependent effects on bacterial communities in Lough Feeagh. The particle-associated community was found to be more likely to respond to physical changes, such as mixing, while the free-living population responded to changes in nutrient and carbon concentrations. Generally, however, the high stability of the bacterial community observed in Lough Feeagh suggests that the bacterial community is relatively resilient to extreme weather events.

농업부문 이상기후 대응에 대한 사회적 수요 분석

This study aims to analyze consumer recognition of the impact of extreme weather events on the Korean agricultural sector,BRand the social demand for government countermeasures addressing extreme weather events. For this study, food buyers who buy food mainly in their household were asked about their recognition of and how to cope with extreme weather events through a mail questionnaire survey, and the contingent valuation method was used to analyze their marginal willingness to pay for a policy to respond to extreme weather events. In the analysis, 80.2% of respondents said lower productivity and quality of agri-livestock products has a negative impact on consumption, and that they would reduce consumption (62.9%) or purchase substitutes (30.7%) when the prices of agri-livestock products rise while the quality worsens. This implies that lower productivity and quality of agri-livestock products has a negative impact on consumer welfare. While the analysis of marginal willingness to pay showed annual taxes have a negative impact on marginal willingness to pay, the positive impact of the prospect of incomes and extreme weather events on the marginal willingness to pay was statistically significant. The total willingness to pay to respond to extreme weather events in the agricultural sector measured about 860 billion won, which is greater than the current budget used for this purpose. This analysis suggests that greater awareness of the effects of extreme weather events on the agricultural sector is needed among consumers, so that they will view policies and costs related to addressing these issues more positively. The social demand for addressing extreme weather events related to climate change in the agricultural sector can be increased by educating the public about the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Aboveground Net Primary Productivity and Sheep Production in the Magellan Region, Southernmost Chilean Patagonia

Spatio-temporal patterns of climatic variability have effects on the environmental conditions of a given land territory and consequently determine the evolution of its productive activities. One of the most direct ways to evaluate this relationship is to measure the condition of the vegetation cover and land-use information. In southernmost South America there is a limited number of long-term studies on these matters, an incomplete network of weather stations and almost no database on ecosystems productivity. In the present work, we characterized the climate variability of the Magellan Region, southernmost Chilean Patagonia, for the last 34 years, studying key variables associated with one of its main economic sectors, sheep production, and evaluating the effect of extreme weather events on ecosystem productivity and sheep production. Our results show a marked multi-decadal character of the climatic variables, with a trend to more arid conditions for the last 8 years, together with an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Significant percentages of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) variance is explained by high precipitation, mesic temperatures, and low evapotranspiration. These conditions are, however, spatially distributed in the transition zone between deciduous forests and steppe and do not represent a general pattern for the entire region. Strong precipitation and wind velocity negatively affect lamb survival, while temperature and ANPP are positively correlated. The impact of extreme weather events on ANP and sheep production (SP) was in most of the cases significantly negative, with the exception of maximum temperature that correlated with an increase of ANPP, and droughts that showed a non-significant negative trend in ANPP. The examination of these relationships is urgent under the current scenario of climate change with the acceleration of the environmental trends here detected.

Impact of extreme weather events on urban human flow: A perspective from location-based service data

This study investigates the impact of extreme weather events on urban human flow disruptions using location-based service data obtained from Baidu Map. Utilizing the 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut as an example, the spatial and temporal variations of urban human flow patterns in Shenzhen are examined using GIS and spatial flow analysis. In addition, the variation of human flow by different urban functions (e.g. transport, recreational, institutional, commercial and residential related facilities) is also examined through an integration of flow data and point-of-interest (POI) data. The study reveals that urban flow patterns varied substantially before, during, and after the typhoon. Specifically, urban flows were found to have reduced by 39% during the disruption. Conversely, 56% of flows increased immediately after the disruption. In terms of functional variation, the assessment reveals that fundamental urban functions, such as industrial (work) and institutional - (education) related trips experienced less disruption, whereas the typhoon event appears to have a relatively larger negative influence on recreational related trips. Overall, the study provides implications for planners and policy makers to enhance urban resilience to disasters through a better understanding of the urban vulnerability to disruptive events.

Assessing Livelihood Vulnerability of Farmers’ in Backward Regions of India

Agriculture in Bundelkhand region is highly vulnerable to risks and uncertainties. Marginal and small farmers among all farm groups are most vulnerable to the effects of climatic variability. The impact of extreme weather events and natural resources on which farmers are dependent aggravates their vulnerability. The present study uses field surveyed data and IPCC- vulnerability approach, to assess the livelihood vulnerability status of two districts of Bundelkhand region, India. Data was collected using a multistage sampling technique including 200 households. The study concluded that 90% of farmers perceived (exposed) that Kharif season remained hotter and frequencies of droughts have increased over the last five years. Sample households were also highly sensitive due to lack of basic amenities. The lower adaptive capacity due to agriculture as a sole income source, lack of non-farm employment opportunities, monoculture and income diversification and illiteracy are responsible for livelihood vulnerability in the region. From the policy perspective, water conservation through rainwater harvesting, construction of new ponds and check dams would be a possible solution to the present water crisis in the region.

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Sub-Saharan African Child and Adolescent Mental Health: A Protocol for a Systematic Review

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as being the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts. A major concern is the increase in extreme weather events (EWE) such as storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and landslides in SSA and their potential to affect the health and well-being of children and adolescents. The objective of this systematic review is to examine the direct and indirect impacts of EWE on the mental health of children and adolescents living in SSA, in order to inform protective adaptation strategies and promote resilience. A meta-analysis will not be possible, since the assumption is that limited studies have been published on the EWE-associated mental health impacts on children and adolescents living in SSA and that those studies that are available are heterogenous. There is acknowledgement in the global literature of the need to highlight child and adolescent mental health more prominently in climate change health strategies and policies. It is vital that adaptation strategies are informed by research on risk prevention and promotion of resilience to ensure the mental health of children and adolescents is protected.