Impact Of Enlargement Research Articles

Migrations in Europe: Fears due to the enlargement of the EU to the East

The European Union is confronted with the biggest enlargement in its history: ten states, among them eight middle European - the so called "buffer zone" in the new European migration landscape - will become members in 2004. Other candidates hope to join in the coming years. For all Eastern and Eastern European countries, including those that are not candidates, the end of the bi-polar world meant a hope of "return to Europe". When shifting its borders to the East, the European Union both includes and excludes. The final objective to achieve Europe as "a space of freedom, security and justice", is conditioned by the capacity and necessity to control the migratory flows. The prospect of free circulation for the citizens of the new Union members entails also fears: the EU countries are afraid of the consequences the enlargement would have on migratory flows from the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and which transit through that area. The perception of migrants as a threat inspired the conditions that the Union imposed on the candidate countries concerning migration policy issues and which mostly focus on the protection of its Eastern borders. For the future Union members however, protecting of the thousand of kilometers of their Eastern border, implies a number of quite different problems. These countries are afraid of the impact the restrictive measures they are obliged to implement would have both on many economic and family ties which have been maintained since the socialist period and on more recently engaged cooperation with the neighbours which are not candidates. The challenge of enlargement is different therefore for the EU members, for the candidate countries and for those who are for the moment excluded from the process. The fears do not seem to be always grounded. Thus, the impact of enlargement which, it was feared, could have been so destabilizing for the Union because of potentially large migration flows, is more likely to be destabilizing for the new candidate countries, especially concerning their relations with their neighbours excluded from the enlargement process.

The impact of enlargement on EU environmental governance

Enlargement may affect the three environmental governance regimes which together constitute EU environmental policy in very different ways. The Internal Market regime is based on functional and utilitarian reproductive mechanisms rooted in structures—the institutionalisation of the Internal Market at the core of the Community and the interest of countries with low environmental product standards in harmonisation —that are unlikely to be strongly affected by enlargement. In contrast, it seems possible that enlargement will significantly weaken the environmental regime. If enlargement shifts influence in favour of countries supporting a low level of environmental regulation, this would seriously affect the power and utilitarian mechanisms on which the environmental regime is based. The highly regulated countries could no longer use the environmental regime as an instrument to impose their regulations on the remaining Member States. This would deprive the regime of its most important support base. However, emerging new mechanisms, in particular Enhanced Co-operation, may offer ways for the highly regulated Member States to maintain their superior position and adapt the environmental regime to enlargement. Finally, although the present conditions for environmental policy integration may be even worse in the accession countries than in many present Member States, this might change in the longer run as a result of the particularly good opportunities and potentially large benefits of a shift to sustainable development in these countries. Whether or not this shift will occur appears to depend less on scarce financial resources and administrative capacities of the accession countries than on a firm institutionalisation of the sustainability regime at the Community level. It is up to the highly regulated Member States, which have so far promoted this emerging regime, to achieve this consolidation under relatively favourable conditions before enlargement takes place.

European Integration and Industrial Relations: a Case of Convergence and Divergence?

European integration has led to considerable reflection about the trajectory of industrial relations in Europe. In the event, rather than the ‘two extremes of social union versus a completely deregulated free–for–all’, a multi–level system is emerging which is simultaneously prompting both convergent and divergent developments, reflecting the different intensity of pressures for change at sector and company levels. For the foreseeable future, complexity, uncertainty and instability look set to be the defining characteristics, with policy–makers and practitioners seeking to influence directions to their own advantage. Especially uncertain is the impact of enlargement, bearing in mind the accession states’ very different industrial relations systems and levels of economic development.

Transition and Integration in Europe: Implications for Agricultural and Food Markets, Policy, and Trade Agreements

Several Central and Eastern European countries are on their way to becoming members of the European Union. Agriculture and agricultural policy is an important issue in EU enlargement. This paper reviews the changes that have occurred in the agricultural and food sector of the CEECs and draws implications for the impact of EU enlargement on agri-food markets and policy. First, those countries which have reformed most rapidly and most thoroughly are now doing best and their reform efforts have resulted in significant recovery and efficiency improvements. Second, the impact of Eastern Enlargement will be less dramatic than initially feared, although some uncertainty remains. The possibility that the accession of the CEECs into the CAP will cause a conflict with WTO commitments has been reduced, but cannot be excluded for some specific commodities, depending on the CEEC supply evolution. However, the likelihood of a WTO conflict, and the impact on the CAP, will depend more on the outcome of the negotiations in the WTO Millennium Round than on enlargement. Similarly, the impact of enlargement on the EU budget depends mostly on the (political) decision on the allocation of direct payments to CEEC farmers and/or of the extent of structural funds for CEECs.

The European Convention on Human Rights after Enlargement

The Council of Europe has dramatically enlarged its membership over the past decade, encompassing the vast majority of the formerly Communist states of Central and Eastern Europe. With this dramatic enlargement, the Council has sought to secure its place in the complex institutional architecture of post-Cold War Europe, building on its traditional strengths in the promotion of democratic governance and human rights. Yet, both inside and outside the organisation, voices have been raised to suggest that the Council has lowered its admission standards in a manner which risks compromising the legitimacy of the European Convention on Human Rights. Against the background of these ongoing controversies, this article assesses the impact of enlargement on the European human rights system. Focusing on the composition of the European Court of Human Rights and the initial pattern of cases from the Central and East European member states, it is demonstrated that the short-term impact of enlargement has been quite limited. Nevertheless, it is clear that the Court will face major new challenges over the coming years. In part, the Court will have to assume the role of an adjudicator of transition. More generally, there will also be mounting pressures for it to (re)cast itself more clearly as a European constitutional court.

Capital and trade flows in Europe and the impact of enlargement

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on its possible effects is scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant effect. Based on additional forecasts of the expected flows to 10 transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates actual levels are still far below expected values in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate raising capital and trade flows with the approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland.

Poverty and social exclusion in Europe: European comparisons and the impact of enlargement

Poverty and social exclusion in Europe: European comparisons and the impact of enlargement

Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on the possible magnitudes is still scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant effect. Based on additional simulations of the expected flows to ten transition economies, we conclude that for the EU candidates actual values are still far below expected ones in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate rising capital and trade flows with the approach of EU accession, in particular for the seven EU candidates besides the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.

The Looming Costs of NATO Expansion in the 21st Century

NOW THAT POLAND, HUNGARY, AND THE Czech Republic have been formally invited into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) - and the prospect of a second round of expansion is on the horizon - the cost of NATO enlargement could become a heated security issue. Before it does, it would be prudent to consider how Canada might make a meaningful financial or organizational contribution to NATO that falls short of the massive new investments in kit and infrastructure posited by several studies of the costs of enlargement. What share of the defence burden should Canada be willing to shoulder? And what are some alternative, and less costly, options for fulfilling Canada's NATO commitments?THE COST OF NATO ENLARGEMENTEstimates of the cost of NATO enlargement vary widely,(f.1) in part because they depend on a host of different assumptions: the nature of the projected threat environment (most estimates assume the overall Russian threat will remain low), the number of new members that should be admitted (three to five, five to seven?), and the strategy NATO adopts to carry out future article 5 missions and their associated force requirements (for example, the expected degree of interoperability and military preparedness). Estimates also differ depending on the time frame for assessing cost estimates (1 to 5 years, 10 to 13 years) and the criteria for allocating costs among members (40 per cent of enlargement costs to new members and 60 per cent commonly funded, or some other split?).Nevertheless, in 1997 many high-level American officials agreed that NATO expansion would cost somewhere between US$27 billion and US$35 billion over the next 13 years, nearly half of which would be paid by the new members. The United States share would be two billion dollars, while the rest, some us$16 billion dollars, would be the responsibility of other current members.(f.2) These widely quoted estimates stem from a congressional report released in February 1997 by the State Department on behalf of President Bill Clinton and the Department of Defense. The report assumed that new members would bear much of the cost of their own 'modernization' and 'restructuring' ($10 billion to $13 billion) and some of the costs of 'direct enlargement' ($3 billion to $4.5 billion). Current members, including Canada, would be expected to contribute $6 billion to $7.5 billion to direct enlargement and a fair share ($8 billion to $10 billion) to those NATO 'regional reinforcement capabilities' that are commonly funded.(f.3)In the autumn of 1997, NATO authorities examined the military requirements of the three invited states and the impact of enlargement on NATO's commonly funded budget. In the weeks prior to ratification of the enlargement decision in the United States Congress, the State Department concurred with NATO's revised assessment that enlargement could cost only $1.5 billion rather than $27-$35 billion. The department suggested, furthermore, that the American share of the costs of enlargement would be a mere $400 million over the coming decade.(f.4)The large discrepancy in these figures is attributable to the fact that the NATO study covered only one category of costs that analysts frequently link to enlargement, namely those directly related to NATO enlargement and eligible for common funding. The costs of upgrading new members' military forces would presumably have to be born by national governments and not by NATO. In addition, the guidance NATO used to identify necessary infrastructure improvements was based on minimal military requirements to fulfil article 5 commitments. It did not, for instance, cover the cost component of endowing current NATO member forces with the capability and resources to extend article 5 guarantees eastward.(f.5)These wide variations in estimates among such reputable analysts as the United States Congressional Budget Office, the Pentagon, the State Department, NATO headquarters, and NATO's North Atlantic Assembly should concern us, if for no other reason than that economic statistics can be fudged, depending on the issue at hand and the political interests at stake. …

The Expanding European Union: Past, Present, Future

Part 1 The Institutional Impact of Enlargement: The European Commission, D. Dinan The Council of Ministers, G. Edwards The European Parliament, K. Neunreither. Part 2 Policy Perspectives: The Common Agricultural Policy, T. Josling Foreign Policy Cooperation, D. Allen Trade and Industrial Policy, H. Grabbe and K. Hughes. Part 3 Looking Forward: Eastern and Central Europe, A. Inotai The Mediterranean, B.A. Yesilada The Enlarging EU in World Politics, R. Ginsberg.

Will Nato Go East? The Debate over Enlarging the Atlantic Alliance

Seldom has an issue split the Western policy community as dramatically as the debate over NATO enlargement. Not only does the issue bring to the fore much that has been latent in post-Cold War power relationships; the participants in the debate enter with their favourite luggage in hand: forecasts of Russian behaviour, definitions of Europe and its institutions, trans-Atlantic futures, the appropriate role for the United States, and of course one or another sub-text about Germany. This useful collection knows where it stands on NATO enlargement and is perhaps the livelier for its advocacy of scepticism about the merits (contributors from Warsaw, Prague, or Budapest need not have applied), of caution in the process, and of a profound concern for the impact of enlargement on stability in Europe. Although the volume was conceived over two years ago, the papers stand up remarkably well, even in light of recent developments, with the July NATO summit in Madrid just weeks away and ratification procedures (of various kinds) probable during the second half of the year. One of the reasons the debate is so vivid and partisan is the fundamental disagreement which it provokes over basic judgments: enlargement is essential/fatal for the future of NATO; it will promote/undermine the security of central Europe; it will reaffirm/terminate United States engagement in Europe; and it will dampen/inflame irredentist urges in Moscow. Although the essays in this volume consider these and many other elements in play, a common thread is the virtually unanimous view that, throughout the alliance, there has been an unfortunate absence of analysis and debate, particularly among parliamentarians, media, and the public at large. While the arguable premise that underlies this point is that 'greater awareness of the problem's complexities will weaken the public's overall support for the broadening of the alliance' (Wolf, p 215), the authors correctly suggest a certain democratic deficit in the process so far. The volume is structured in two parts: five chapters of broad theoretical and policy papers are followed by four case studies of the issue as seen from the United States, Canada, France, and Germany. David Haglund tests NATO enlargement against certain theoretical concepts of alliances and institutions, while charting in skilful terms the 'evolution of an idea.' David Law and Neil MacFarlane address NATO as a regional security organization, considering linkages with the European Union, the Western European Union, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, as well as the existing functions of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council and Partnership for Peace. …