Early therapeutic decision-making is crucial in patients with higher-risk MDS where median survival is only around one year. Azacitidine prolongs survival for these patients (Fenaux et al, Lancet Oncology 2009) but clinically relevant biomarkers remain to be identified. We evaluated retrospectively, the impact of clinical parameters and mutational profiles in 134 consecutive patients treated with a median number of 7 cycles of Azacitidine (range 1-45), in accordance to European guidelines. The vast majority (n=114) had higher-risk disease i.e. MDS with IPSS int-2 or high, AML with multilinear dysplasia and 20-30% blasts or CMML-II. We combined an initial cohort from Karolinska University Hospital (n=89) with a validating cohort from King's College Hospital, London (n=45). Studied endpoints were response, as defined by the IWG criteria, and survival. Since prolonged survival is the main goal for this cohort of patients, we believe that survival is the most relevant endpoint, supported by the fact that even non-responding patients have a survival benefit from Azacitidine (Gore et al, Haematologica, 2013).While neither clinical parameters nor mutations had a significant impact on response rate, both karyotype and mutational profile were strongly associated with survival from the start of treatment, see Table 1 and Figure 1-2. IPSS high-risk cytogenetics was negatively associated with survival (median 20 vs 10 months; p<0.001), whereas mutations in histone modulators (ASXL1, EZH2, MLL) were associated with prolonged survival (22 vs 12 months, p=0.001). This positive association was present in both cohorts and remained highly significant in the multivariate cox model. Importantly, patients with mutations in histone modulators lacking high-risk cytogenetics showed a survival of 29 months (response rate 73%) compared to 10 months (response rate 49%) in patients with the opposite pattern, see Figure 3. While TP53 was negatively associated with survival in the univariate analysis, neither RUNX1-mutations nor the number of mutations, previously reported as negative prognostic markers, appeared to influence survival in this cohort. In contrast, disease duration and cellularity showed a weak negative correlation with survival. We propose a model combining histone modulator mutational screening with cytogenetics in the clinical decision-making process for higher-risk MDS eligible for treatment with Azacitidine.Table 1Variables associated with survival. Univariate analyses used the log-rank test. The cox model included all listed variables except response rate in a multivariate analyses.Estimated median survival (months)Univariate p-valueCox regression p-valueHazard ratio (95% CI)Response rate: CR / mCR vs PR/HI vs SD/PD20 vs 20 vs 10<0.001IPSS cytogenetic risk group: Favorable vs Int vs Adverse20 vs 20 vs 10<0.001<0.001*3.00 (1.9-4.7)Disease duration ≥ 4 months: Yes vs No14 vs 170.440.05**1.01 (1.00-1.02)Marrow blasts ≥ 11%: Yes vs No14 vs 140.7Cellularity ≥ 70%: Yes vs No14 vs 200.20.021.013 (1.002-1.023)**ANC ≥ 1.3: Yes vs No14 vs 170.32Platelets ≥ 60: Yes vs No17 vs 120.07Transfusion dependent: Yes vs No13 vs 170.43Therapy related: Yes vs No17 vs 140.44Number of mutations: 0 vs 1 vs ≥ 217 vs 12 vs 170.64Epigenetic mutation: Yes vs No19 vs 120.03DNA methylation mutation: Yes vs No14 vs 140.64Histone modulator mutation: Yes vs No22 vs 120.0010.0070.499 (0.3-0.83)Splicing factor mutation: Yes vs No13 vs 170.31ASXL1 mutation: Yes vs No29 vs 120.03TET2 mutation: Yes vs No13 vs 160.45EZH2 mutation: Yes vs No20 vs 140.37SF3B1 mutation: Yes vs No13 vs 160.35RUNX1 mutation: Yes vs No17 vs 140.76SRSF2 mutation: Yes vs No20 vs 140.5TP53 mutation: Yes vs No9 vs 17<0.001*Comparing adverse cytogenetics vs the other groups. ** Disease duration, marrow blasts, cellularity, ANC and TPK were analyzed as a continuous variable in the cox model [Display omitted] [Display omitted] [Display omitted] DisclosuresMcLornan:Novartis: Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Jädersten:Celgene: Other: speakers fee. Kulasekararaj:Alexion: Consultancy. Mufti:Celgene: Consultancy, Other: Speakers fee. Hellström-Lindberg:Celgene Corporation: Research Funding.
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