Impact Of Climate Change Scenarios Research Articles

Exploring temperature and salinity effects on seed germination in North African pastoral grasses: A halo-thermal modeling approach in the context of climate change

Understanding how plant species respond to temperature and salt stress is crucial for ensuring successful seed germination and crop production. The ongoing effects of global climate change, such as temperature fluctuations, can have serious consequences for seed germination. This study aimed to investigate the impact of salinity (NaCl) and temperature (T), individually and in interaction, on the germination responses of four North African pastoral grass species Stipagrostis (S. ciliata, S. pungens, S. obtusa, and S. pulmosa) and the potential impact of climate change scenarios on their seed germination. Significant effects of NaCl, T, and their interaction (NaCl × T) were observed on both germination percentage and germination rate across the four species. The halotime and halothermal time models successfully predicted germination time courses for the four species (R2 > 0.86). The base T (Tb), optimum T (To), and ceiling T (Tc) were 13, 9.8, 9.0, and 10.7 °C; 25, 29, 28, and 27 °C; and 34, 35, 38, and 34 °C for S. ciliata, S. obtusa, S. pungens, and S. pulmosa, respectively. The predictions indicated that higher temperatures associated with climate change caused shorter germination times (i.e., 42 h for S. ciliata and 23–24 h for S. pulmosa, S. pungens, and S. obtusa) suggesting potential shifts in germination behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, the study assessed germination recovery after salt stress, revealing species-specific responses to both T and NaCl variations. The results highlighted the resilience of the studied grass species, as seeds were capable of recovering germination after exposure to salt stress. Therefore, the research provides comprehensive insights into the intricate relationships between T, NaCl, and germination in North African pastoral grasses. The findings contribute to our understanding of how these grasses may respond to changing environmental conditions, particularly under climate change scenarios.

Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Simineh River Discharge in Lake Urmia Basin

The Simineh River is heavily reliant on water resources for agricultural aims in the Lake Urmia. However, the hydrological system of the Simineh basin is highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change scenarios, primarily due to the presence of diverse topographical features, limited availability of data, and the complex nature of the local climate. This study aimed to simulate the monthly discharge of the Simineh River using the SWAT and assess the effects of climate change on the monthly discharge. Future climate scenarios for the years 2011-2030 were generated using the HadCM3 weather models under the A2, B1, and A1B scenarios. After evaluating the performance of the LARS-WG model in producing precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for the Simineh River watershed, the output of the HadCM3 under the A1B, B1, and A2 scenarios reduced, and the desired meteorological parameters predicted. These predicted values used as inputs for the SWAT model. In this study, assuming no change in land use, the focus was solely on the impact of climate change scenarios. However, appropriate measures can be taken to save the Simineh River's water consumption by optimizing irrigation efficiency through innovative methods. This is crucial because the results indicate that a total reduction of up to 25% in discharge in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change leads to a significant decrease in the annual average inflow to the lake from 570 million cubic meters to 394, 398, and 440 million cubic meters under the A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, respectively. The Simineh River supplies 11% of the water in Lake Urmia, and taking necessary measures to conserve its water resources is essential.

Apply MIKE models to study the impacts of climate change on flooding and design adaptation measures in Can Tho City in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.

Can Tho City in the Mekong Delta usually has pluvial and fluvial floods every year. The situation will get worst in the future under climate change. This study aims (i) to apply the MIKE 11, MIKE 21, and MIKE FLOOD model to simulate the impact of climate change scenarios on flooding in Can Tho city (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation measures for sustainable social-economic activities of the city. We considered the combined effect of sea-level rise including RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, and changes in climate factor (i.e., precipitation) for the years 2025, 2030, and 2050. The results show that the flood model is appropriate to simulate the flood. The flooded areas of the city under the scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 will be increased from 2025 to 2050, and RCP 4.5 will be increased progressively from the year 2025 to 2030 and reduced to 2050. In the scenario of RCP 8.5, the flooded area of the city will be gradually increased in 2025, 2030, and 2050 at 3,559 ha, 3,719 ha, and 4,476 ha, respectively. Fifteen adaptation measures to climate change from 2021 to 2050 are suggested.

A novel statistical model for flood prediction in the Eel River watershed, New Brunswick, Canada

ABSTRACT A strong correlation between the effect of climate change and the increase in flooding frequency and magnitude has been reported in Canada. Consequently, there is a crucial need to examine the effects of future climate change scenarios on flooding conditions. The main objective of this research is to better understand the destructive effects of flood events under historical and future climate change conditions for a small watershed (Eel River watershed) in New Brunswick (NB), Eastern Canada. A practical model had been developed using the modified Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in MATLAB by the authors of this study. The architecture and data structure of ANN is characterized by a back propagation with the Levenberg–Marquardt method. The observed daily total precipitation, daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily discharge for the period 1967 to 1983, the simulated monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures, and monthly total precipitation for the period of 1996–2099 from the CanESM2, the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CGCM), were used as input of the model. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), as suitable climate change scenarios, were selected based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendations for flood studies. Daily values of temperatures, precipitations, and discharges were converted to monthly mean values for better prediction of the output results. In addition, two series of observed discharges were prepared using mean monthly (Qavg) and daily maximum discharges (Qd) as the Target of the model. For more accurate analysis, the time frames of 1996–2012 (for the historical) and 2022–2038, 2039–2055, 2056–2072, 2073–2089, and 2083–2099 (for the future) were considered with a duration of 16 years for each time frame. The output results of ANN were predicted daily maximum (Qd) and mean (Qavg) discharges under the impact of climate change scenarios. As a part of the developed model, Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) was undertaken using the generalized extreme value (GEV) and the three-parameter lognormal (LN3) distributions based on the predicted and observed discharges. The performance of FFA and ANN were demonstrated using the Anderson–Darling (AD), the Chi-square (CS) tests and coefficient of correlation (R) and mean squared error (MSE), respectively. In conclusion, the three most critical time frames with the highest values of predicted discharges were 2022–2038, 2056–2072, and 2073–2089 for RCP4.5 and 2039–2055, 2073–2089, and 2083–2099 for RCP8.5. Also, based on the FFA, the magnitudes of flood recurrence for the future time period of 100 years will dramatically increase according to the most critical time frames of 2056–2072 and 2039–2055 for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Findings indicated that the Eel River watershed will encounter severe floods, and about a 50% increase in mean discharge, especially for the critical time frames. Finally, flood occurrences show increasing trends due to climate change effects in the most critical time frames.

Not the expected poleward migration: Impact of climate change scenarios on the distribution of two endemic evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species in China

One of the key strategies for species to respond to climate change is range shift. It is commonly believed that species will migrate towards the poles and higher elevations due to climate change. However, some species may also shift in opposite directions (i.e., equatorward) to adapt to changes in other climatic variables beyond climatic isotherms. In this study, we focused on two evergreen broad-leaved Quercus species endemic to China and used ensemble species distribution models to project their potential distribution shifts and extinction risk under two shared socioeconomic pathways of six general circulation models for the years 2050 and 2070. We also investigated the relative importance of each climatic variable in explaining range shifts of these two species. Our findings indicate a sharp reduction in the habitat suitability for both species. Q. baronii and Q. dolicholepis are projected to experience severe range contractions, losing over 30 % and 100 % of their suitable habitats under SSP585 in the 2070s, respectively. Under the assumption of universal migration in future climate scenarios, Q. baronii is expected to move towards the northwest (~105 km), southwest (~73 km), and high elevation (180–270 m). The range shifts of both species are driven by temperature and precipitation variables, not only annual mean temperature. Specifically, precipitation seasonality and temperature annual range were the most crucial environmental variables, causing the contraction and expansion of Q. baronii and contraction of Q. dolicholepis, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of considering additional climatic variables beyond the annual mean temperature to explain species range shifts in multiple directions.

Gestão integrada de águas subterrâneas e superficiais em cenários de mudanças climáticas

ABSTRACT This study aimed to simulate the joint use of surface water and groundwater in the urban-rural basins of the municipality of São Carlos and evaluated the impact of climate change scenarios in the system. A calibrated WEAP model is employed with 5 km resolution climate model data from the CPTEC - PROJETA project with the future scenario of RCP85 and RCP45 from 2007 to 2050. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of groundwater and surface-water abstraction of public water supply, industrial and private demands, with combination of conjunctive use 50-50% of both type of resources and 100% from one them. Results were assessed by analyzing the flow duration curves and the level of the aquifer for the 2007-2050 period. The simulated climatic scenarios indicate that the pressure over groundwater in the area could represent a challenge due to the progressive depletion of the resources affecting the system sustainability, the flow of the main rivers with the 95% percentile presents a reduction of 20% in some cases. This modelling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand.

Simulation and Prediction of the Impact of Climate Change Scenarios on Runoff of Typical Watersheds in Changbai Mountains, China

Simulating the hydrological process of a river basin helps to understand the evolution of water resources in the region and provides scientific guidance for water resources allocation policies between different river basins and water resources management within the river basin. This paper provides a scientific basis for the sustainable development of regional water resources and an accurate grasp of the future change trend of runoff by analyzing the hydrological process response of runoff in typical watersheds in Changbai Mountains, China, to climate change. The applicability of the HEC-HMS (The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s-Hydrologic Modeling System) hydrological model in the watershed is verified by calibrating and verifying the daily rainfall-runoff process in the watershed during the wet season from 2006 to 2017. The daily rainfall data of the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 under the BCC-CSM2-MR model in the 2021–2050 CMIP6 plan were downscaled and interpolated to in-basin stations to generate future daily precipitation series to predict runoff response to future climate change. The daily rainfall data of the two scenarios were downscaled and interpolated to the stations in the basin to generate future daily rainfall series to predict the runoff response under future climate changes. The average certainty coefficient of the HEC-HMS model for daily runoff simulation reached 0.705; the rainfall in the basin under the two climate scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in the next 30 years (2021–2050) will generally increase, and rainfall will be more evenly distributed in the future; the outlet flow of the basin will increase during the wet season (June–September) in the next 30 years, but it is lower than the historically measured value; the peak flow of the future will appear at most in August and September. The peak flow current time mostly appears in July and August. The time of peak occurrence has been delayed.

Modelled impact of climate change scenarios on hydrodynamics and water quality of the Rävlidmyran pit lake, northern Sweden

Predictive modelling for three climate scenarios, based on the three greenhouse gas emission scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, was conducted for the Rävlidmyran pit lake, located in Västerbotten, northern Sweden. The model output for pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, Cl, Fe3+, and Zn during the 10-year period 2090–2099 was compared to the model output during the 10-year period 2006–2015, for which measured meteorological data was used as input. Changes in thermocline, chemocline and water outflow were also evaluated. The results indicate that the water outflow from the pit lake will increase, as well as the number of days when the temperature in the mixolimnion exceeds 12 °C. The largest changes are seen for the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). A small increase in Zn outflow (4.4%) could be observed for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario compared to the RCP 2.6 scenario. The results also indicate that the stratification of the lake is relatively stable, and it is predicted to remain meromictic for all climate scenarios. However, a sensitivity analysis indicates that a reduction of groundwater inflow element concentrations by 25–50% may result in a weakened stratification of the lake. Minor dilution could be observed in the monimolimnion of the lake as the modelled Cl concentration decreased by ∼0.3 mg/L in the RCP 8.5 emission scenario compared to the 2006–2015 period. The Cl concentration was also lower in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenario, both in the mixolimnion and the monimolimnion.

The impact of climate change scenarios on droughts and their propagation in an arid Mediterranean basin. A useful approach for planning adaptation strategies

Areas where there is a scarcity of water frequently experience significant drought periods, which may become exacerbated in the future due to climate change. In this paper we propose a novel and integrated method for a semi-distributed analysis of the impact on potential future meteorological, hydrological, agronomical and operational droughts within a basin. We analyse the propagation and correlation of the different types of droughts, and then this analysis can be used to plan sustainable adaptation strategies. The proposed method is based on sequential applications of different statistical techniques and mathematical models. We have applied several statistical downscaling techniques to generate consistent local future climate scenarios considering both basic and drought statistics. This allows us to analyse the sensitivity of the results to the applied technique and the spatial distribution. A chain of models has been used to propagate climate scenarios to analyse the hydrological, agricultural, and operational impact. We have applied a clustering analysis to historical data to identify homogeneous hydro-climate areas used to analyse the spatial distribution of the impact. The approach has been applied in the Segura basin (in south-eastern Spain). The simulations of the impact in the 3 generated ensemble scenarios on the whole Segura Basin system for the horizon 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5 emission scenario show a significant mean reduction (40.9–59.1%) of the available resources, an increase in pumping rates in aquifers (36.4–42.7%) and lower guarantees (96.3% in the historical period and 75.0–77.6% in the future scenarios) for demand supply. The spatial distribution of the impact is heterogeneous, with the hydro-climate areas near to the coast for agricultural and operational droughts being more affected. An analysis of correlation between the meteorological and operational droughts shows the maximum correlation for a time delay of around 4 months. This information could help to identify when measures to reduce the operational impact should start to be applied when a meteorological drought starts.

Impact of climate change on the carbonation in concrete due to carbon dioxide ingress: Experimental investigation and modelling

Greenhouse gases (GHG), in terms of CO2 emissions, cause a greenhouse impact leading to changes in the planet's temperature and relative humidity (RH). These changes in CO2, temperature and RH (leading to changes in the internal moisture content) have considerable impacts on the depth of carbonation (DoC) in existing concrete structures. However, the models to forecast the DoC as a function of time in the cracked and uncracked concrete members are scarce and have limitations in terms of incorporating key variables relevant to the climate change. This study aims to develop an integrated deterioration model of carbonation in concrete. The combined impacts of variations in the internal factors (such as mechanical properties of concrete, porosity and crack width) and external factors (such as %CO2, %RH and temperature), on chemical reaction rates due to carbonation in concrete were considered. This model is based on simultaneous solutions of the diffusivity and reaction activites of CO2(aq) and Ca(OH)2(aq). The proposed model was validated using the accelerated carbonation experiments involving different properties of concrete and cracks widths. Finally, this model was employed to forecast the DoC in order to identify corrosion state owing to impact of climate change scenarios of the Inter-governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC 2014) and the UKCP′09 climate projections.

Analysis of Streamflow Response to Changing Climate Conditions Using SWAT Model

The understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins and it is very important to study the climate change impacts on streamflow by analyzing the different climate scenarios with the help of the hydrological models. The main purpose of this study is to project the future climate impact on streamflow by using the SWAT model. The multi-model projections indicated that Upper Ayeyarwady River Basin is likely to become hotter in dry season under low rainfall intensity with increasing temperature and likely to become wetter but warmer in both rainy and winter season because of high rainfall intensity with increased temperature in future. The impact of climate change scenarios is predicted to decrease the annual streamflow by about 0.30 to 1.92% under RCP2.6, 5.59 to 7.29% under RCP4.5 and 10.43 to 11.92% under RCP8.5. Based on the change in high and low flow percentage with respect to the baseline period, the difference between high and low flow variation range will increase year by year based on future scenarios. Therefore, it can be concluded that it may occur more low flow in the dry season which leads to increase in water scarcity and drought and more high flow in the wet season which can cause flooding, water insecurity, stress, and other water-related disasters.

Responses of river discharge and sediment load to climate change in the transboundary Mekong River Basin

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter streamflow and sediment load in the transboundary Mekong River Basin (MRB), thereby affecting aquatic ecosystem and people’s livelihoods. Thus, future decisions on sustainable management of water resources in the basin should take climate change impact into consideration. In this study, the responses of river discharge and sediment (total suspended sediment [TSS]) load to future climate change in the transboundary MRB have been investigated. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used as a simulation tool, which has been carefully calibrated and validated against the observation data in the period of 1982–2005 before applying to evaluate the impact of climate change scenarios for the near‐future period of 2016–2040. The climate change scenarios, which are acquired from four different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) downscaled from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2‐Atmosphere (HadGEM2‐AO), are applied in the present study. In regard to the effect of changing climate, the annual river discharge and TSS load are forecasted to rise from 3.35 to 9.13% and from 7.45 to 13.15%, respectively. Generally, the TSS loading projection varies larger than the streamflow projection concerning changing climate. The findings here are also agreed with the conclusions of previous investigations on the future impacts of changing climate in the MRB.

Analysis of a Flash Flood in a Small Basin in Crete

Climate change will have a greater impact on the severity of flash floods, since precipitation intensity is expected to increase, even in areas where a reduction of precipitation is possible. This change in climate is expected to increase flood wave speed and its flood wave area extent. A case study of a small basin in the island of Crete was conducted to examine this effect, following the calibration and validation of the flow hydrograph of a flash flood event, in order to achieve model verification with the post-flood data. It was found that the most important parameters that affect the timing and magnitude of the peak discharge are the storage coefficient, the impervious rate and the curve number, as well as the time of concentration. Rainfall distribution was examined in different time intervals in order to study the effect of the intensity of precipitation on the peak hydrograph. From the precipitation records and according to the size of the watershed, the time step of the precipitation in the simulation model is recommended to be less than an hour. In other areas around the basin of interest, severe storms known as Medicanes that pass over Crete can produce higher precipitation in shorter time intervals. The impact of climate change scenarios results in an increase on the peak discharge by creating precipitation of higher intensity. Furthermore, the intensification of precipitation due to climate change results in higher flood depths and flooded area extent, as well as wave velocities.

A distributed cellular automata model to simulate potential future impacts of climate change on snow cover area

Snow dynamics in alpine systems play an important role in water resources management. One of the main variables that characterises the snowpack is snow cover area. In this paper, we present a novel methodology to assess the impact of climate change scenarios on snow cover area in alpine systems. The methodology calibrates and validates a distributed cellular automata (CA) model. Potential climate change scenarios can be generated to feed the CA model in order to assess the potential impact of climate change on snow cover area. The methodology has been applied to the Sierra Nevada mountain range in southern Spain, an area with a Mediterranean climate, which is valuable in terms of both its ecology and the tourism industry. Snow falls on the mountains from October to May, but this snow season may vary in the future due to climate change. We analysed the influence of elevation on the potential impact of climate change on the area covered by snow. The size of the potential changes associated with climate change increase with elevation in the case of temperature and decrease in the case of precipitation. These potential changes will modify snow dynamics, causing an important reduction in the area covered by snow (mean 60.4%) for the future horizon considered (2071–2100).

Customization of DNDC Model: Simulation of Yield and Nitrogen Balance in Rice (Oryza sativa L.) in Relation to Climate Change, Soil and Management Interventions

A field study was conducted at two different locations at research farms of Department of Soil Science, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, on sandy loam soils during kharif 2015 and 2016 to evaluate the DNDC (Denitrification-Decomposition) model. Simulation were made to assess the impact of climate change scenario, soil and management interventions on past (1986–2016) and future (2020–2050) yield, nitrogen (N) balance and use efficiency of rice, and to made projections for future yield, N balance and use efficiency of rice for different texture soils and different locations of central Punjab. Results indicate that simulated rice grain yield, N uptake, volatilization and leaching increases but agronomic and recovery efficiency decreases at higher N levels. Simulated rice grain yield, N uptake, volatilization, agronomic and recovery efficiency would decrease in future time slices but leaching would increase. Per cent reduction in yield would be more in end part of mid century, lower at higher N levels (150–180 kg N ha−1) and in fine textured soils (silt loam). During time slice-4 (TS-4) (2040–2050) highest reduction in yield is expected at Patiala (54.7%) followed by Ludhiana (50.7%) then Amritsar (43.5%) but under higher N treatments (150 and 180 kg ha−1) yield reduction trend would be in the order of Ludhiana> Patiala> Amritsar. Trend for per cent increase in leaching during TS-4 would be Patiala> Amritsar> Ludhiana but volatilization would be Ludhiana> Patiala> Amritsar. The study suggests that higher N levels could be good option to compensate yield reduction in future however higher N levels would lead to higher N leaching and volatilization.

Impact of Changes in Groundwater Extractions and Climate Change on Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in a Complex Hydrogeological Setting

Climate change and other future developments can influence the availability of groundwater resources for drinking water. The uncertainty of the projected impact is a challenge given the urgency to decide on adaptation measures to secure the drinking water supply. Improved understanding on how climate change affects the groundwater system is necessary to develop adaptation strategies. AZURE is used, a detailed, well-calibrated hydrological model to study the projected impact of climate change scenarios on the large Veluwe aquifer in the Netherlands. The Veluwe area is an important source of drinking water. However, some existing groundwater extractions in the area affect nearby groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Redistribution of the licensed extraction volumes of these sites is considered to reduce the impact on these ecosystems. The projected impact of climate change and redistribution to groundwater levels is studied. The research shows that in a slowly responding large aquifer the projected climate change may cause rising groundwater levels despite the projected increase in summer dryness. The results indicate that this impact may exceed the impact of redistribution of extraction volumes. In addition, it is shown that the combined effect strongly depends on local conditions, thus highlighting the need for high-resolution modelling.

The Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures for Rice Production in Central Vietnam: A Pilot in Nui Thanh District, Quang Nam Province

Abstract: This study analyses the impacts of climate change on rice production and adaptation in Nui Thanh district, Quang Nam province. This study pursues to seek following queries including forecast future rainfall, temperature, rice yield, and analyze adaptation measures to improve rice production under different climate change scenarios in Nui Thanh district, Quang Nam province, Vietnam. The study was based on firstly identification of the problem in the study area followed by collection of secondary data on weather, soil characteristics and crop management. Then the downscaling model was used to predict the temperature and precipitation of the study area in the future by A2 and B2 scenarios. The Aquacrop model was used to simulate the yield response. After that, the impact of climate change scenarios on rice yield was analyzed. Lastly, the evaluation for adaptation measure to improve rice production under climate change based on water management was determined. Results show that climate change will reduce rice yield from 1.29 to 23.05% during the winter season for both scenarios and all time periods, whereas an increase in yield by 2.07 to 6.66% is expected in the summer season for the 2020s and 2050s; relative to baseline yield. The overall decrease of rice yield in the winter season can be offset, and rice yield in the summer season can be enhanced to potential levels by altering the transplanting dates and by introducing supplementary irrigation. Late transplanting of rice shows an increase of yield by 20-27% in future. Whereas supplementary irrigation of rice in the winter season shows an increase in yield of up to 42% in future. Increasing the fertilizer application rate enhances the yield from 0.3 to 29.8% under future climates. Similarly, changing the number of doses of fertilizer application increased rice yield by 1.8 to 5.1%, relative to the current practice of single dose application. Shifting to other heat tolerant varieties also increased the rice production.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Srepok watershed, Central Highland of Vietnam

The Srepok watershed in the Central Highland of Vietnam plays an important role in the economic development of the region. Any harmful effects of climate change on natural resources may cause difficulties for social and economic development in this area. The present study aims to predict and evaluate changes of water resources in the Srepok watershed under the impact of climate change scenarios by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The study used observed weather data from 1990 to 2010 for the first period and climate change scenarios A1B and A2 from 2011 to 2039 for the second period and from 2040 to 2069 for the third period. According to the climate change scenarios of the studied watershed, future minimum and maximum daily average temperature will rise in all climate change scenarios and the amount of annual precipitation will fall in scenario A1B and go up in scenario A2. Based on the simulation results, the annual water discharge in scenario A1B decreased by 11.1% and 1.2% during the second and third periods, respectively, compared with the first. In scenario A2, annual water discharge increased by 2.4% during the second period but decreased by 1.8% during the third period.

Impact of climate change scenarios on hydrologic response of Upper Wardha catchment, Central India

The present study investigates the impact of climate change on response of hydrologic unit based on global climate models in Upper Wardha catchment, India using statistical downscaling tool (SDSM) and the HadCM3 global circulation model (GCM) A2 and B2 scenario data. Changes in extreme climate which affects the society and the environment is studied by seven indices. Future scenarios (2011-2099) developed for TMIN, TMAX and precipitation (PPT) show an increasing trend for TMIN, TMAX and summer season precipitation after calibration (1969-1985) and validation (1986-2001). With general warming over the area, potential-evapo-transpiration showed increase in loss by 5.9% and 6.24% in 2080s. The overall precipitation shows a decrease with respect to base but 54% and 46% rise in summer rains by 2080s. The downscaled variables were used in HEC-HMS model. After calibrating (1988-2005) the model for daily flows (R2 = 0.72) and monthly flows (R2 = 0.81) and validating (2006-2012) for daily flows (R2 = 0.82) and monthly flows (R2 = 0.96), future flow scenarios were generated.

Impact of climate change scenarios on hydrologic response of Upper Wardha catchment, Central India

The present study investigates the impact of climate change on response of hydrologic unit based on global climate models in Upper Wardha catchment, India using statistical downscaling tool (SDSM) and the HadCM3 global circulation model (GCM) A2 and B2 scenario data. Changes in extreme climate which affects the society and the environment is studied by seven indices. Future scenarios (2011-2099) developed for TMIN, TMAX and precipitation (PPT) show an increasing trend for TMIN, TMAX and summer season precipitation after calibration (1969-1985) and validation (1986-2001). With general warming over the area, potential-evapo-transpiration showed increase in loss by 5.9% and 6.24% in 2080s. The overall precipitation shows a decrease with respect to base but 54% and 46% rise in summer rains by 2080s. The downscaled variables were used in HEC-HMS model. After calibrating (1988-2005) the model for daily flows (R2 = 0.72) and monthly flows (R2 = 0.81) and validating (2006-2012) for daily flows (R2 = 0.82) and monthly flows (R2 = 0.96), future flow scenarios were generated.