Apply MIKE models to study the impacts of climate change on flooding and design adaptation measures in Can Tho City in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta.

Abstract

Can Tho City in the Mekong Delta usually has pluvial and fluvial floods every year. The situation will get worst in the future under climate change. This study aims (i) to apply the MIKE 11, MIKE 21, and MIKE FLOOD model to simulate the impact of climate change scenarios on flooding in Can Tho city (ii) to suggest climate change adaptation measures for sustainable social-economic activities of the city. We considered the combined effect of sea-level rise including RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, and changes in climate factor (i.e., precipitation) for the years 2025, 2030, and 2050. The results show that the flood model is appropriate to simulate the flood. The flooded areas of the city under the scenarios of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 will be increased from 2025 to 2050, and RCP 4.5 will be increased progressively from the year 2025 to 2030 and reduced to 2050. In the scenario of RCP 8.5, the flooded area of the city will be gradually increased in 2025, 2030, and 2050 at 3,559 ha, 3,719 ha, and 4,476 ha, respectively. Fifteen adaptation measures to climate change from 2021 to 2050 are suggested.