Assessment of the impact of climate change and cultivation conditions on rice yield in Vietnamese Mekong Delta. A case study in Vinh Thanh District, Can Tho city

Abstract

There has been noticed that the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather situations. Some underlying effects of global climate change may cause the hydrological conditions of this delta to shift, and this could eventually cause serious issues for the socio-economic and agricultural systems. Besides, a key part of agricultural productivity is also played by cultivation practices, particularly fertilizer management. Inadequate and inappropriate application of nitrogen will negatively impact the environment and affects the economic value of farmers. Crop simulation models demonstrate their effectiveness in simulating and evaluating nitrogen fertilizer management in order to increase nitrogen use efficiency and prevent environmental contamination. Our research intends to identify how farming and climate affect rice productivity. In this study, the ideal N ratio and the climate change’s impact on paddy rice growth stages in Vinh Thanh district, Can Tho City were determined by using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice. With the value of Correlation coefficient (R2) = 0.8 and index of agreement (d-value) = 0.96, the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model was suitable for simulating rice yield, according to research findings. Additionally, rice yield will alter as meteorological parameters change in the future, and temperature will have the greatest influence on rice output. When the nitrogen fertilization rate in the rice cultivation process is changed to 0, 40, 80, 120, and 160 kg ha−1, the research results demonstrate that there is no noticeable distinction when comparing the efficiency of nitrogen use as well as the economic efficiency at the above nitrogen ratios. Nevertheless, research findings clearly indicated that fertilizing with nitrogen at a rate of about 80 kg ha−1 will be more effective economically and in terms of nitrogen utilization than other treatments.