Impact Evaluation Methods Research Articles

Camera-in-the-loop based test scenario generation method for pedestrian collision avoidance system

The Pedestrian Collision Avoidance System (PCAS) of Intelligent Vehicle (IV) can be effective in preventing the occurrence of traffic accidents. However, the complicated operation environments introduce great challenges to the camera used by the PCAS. Therefore, the camera based PCAS should be fully tested and evaluated before deployment. The traditional simulation test for the camera based PCAS attempted to use geometric or physical simulation models, which have low reality and are suitable for the primary stage of the PCAS development. Camera-in-the-Loop (CIL) test is one of Hardware-in-the-Loop methods that embeds the real camera hardware into the virtual simulation system to test the camera. CIL can utilize the real hardware response while overcoming the common simulation weakness of fidelity. In this paper, we construct a CIL test platform, and propose the CIL based test scenarios generation and scenario parameter impact evaluation method for PCAS. First, we construct the CIL test platform whose image quality and functional confidence are both validated to prove CIL credibility. Second, the PCAS under the test is analyzed and the corresponding test scenario parameters are designed. In order to accelerate the test scenario generation, a Greedy Based Combination test method (GBC) based on the CIL is proposed. The Chi-square analysis and two-factor of variance analysis verification methods are used to analyze the influence of individual and multiple scenario parameters on the PCAS performance. The experiment results show that the GBC improves the test speed by 12 times compared to the traversal test, and the frequency ratio of each scenario parameter is no more than 3% different from that of the traversal test. Also, GBC has an equivalent ability to find the PCAS collision scenarios parameter combination to the traversal test.

The impact of health insurance on maternal and reproductive health service utilization and financial protection in low- and lower middle-income countries: a systematic review of the evidence

BackgroundLow- and middle-income countries have committed to achieving universal health coverage (UHC) as a means to enhance access to services and improve financial protection. One of the key health financing reforms to achieve UHC is the introduction or expansion of health insurance to enhance access to basic health services, including maternal and reproductive health care. However, there is a paucity of evidence of the extent to which these reforms have had impact on the main policy objectives of enhancing service utilization and financial protection. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the existing evidence on the causal impact of health insurance on maternal and reproductive health service utilization and financial protection in low- and lower middle-income countries.MethodsThe review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The search included six databases: Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, CINAHL, and Scopus as of 23rd May 2023. The keywords included health insurance, impact, utilisation, financial protection, and maternal and reproductive health. The search was followed by independent title and abstract screening and full text review by two reviewers using the Covidence software. Studies published in English since 2010, which reported on the impact of health insurance on maternal and reproductive health utilisation and or financial protection were included in the review. The ROBINS-I tool was used to assess the quality of the included studies.ResultsA total of 17 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The majority of the studies (82.4%, n = 14) were nationally representative. Most studies found that health insurance had a significant positive impact on having at least four antenatal care (ANC) visits, delivery at a health facility and having a delivery assisted by a skilled attendant with average treatment effects ranging from 0.02 to 0.11, 0.03 to 0.34 and 0.03 to 0.23 respectively. There was no evidence that health insurance had increased postnatal care, access to contraception and financial protection for maternal and reproductive health services. Various maternal and reproductive health indicators were reported in studies. ANC had the greatest number of reported indicators (n = 10), followed by financial protection (n = 6), postnatal care (n = 5), and delivery care (n = 4). The overall quality of the evidence was moderate based on the risk of bias assessment.ConclusionThe introduction or expansion of various types of health insurance can be a useful intervention to improve ANC (receiving at least four ANC visits) and delivery care (delivery at health facility and delivery assisted by skilled birth attendant) service utilization in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Implementation of health insurance could enable countries’ progress towards UHC and reduce maternal mortality. However, more research using rigorous impact evaluation methods is needed to investigate the causal impact of health insurance coverage on postnatal care utilization, contraceptive use and financial protection both in the general population and by socioeconomic status.Trial registrationThis study was registered with Prospero (CRD42021285776).

Analyzing gender gap in agricultural productivity: Evidence from Ethiopia

Women make up more than 50% of the agricultural labor force but contribute less than 30% to agricultural productivity. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood in Ethiopia but by contributes more than 35% to GDP, 90% to forex earnings, and 70% to employment sources. So Improving economic well-being ensuring sustainable development, and reducing poverty is impossible by ignoring the role of women. Consequently, the main objective of the study is to investigate the gender gap in agricultural productivity using national Panel data of 3474 households which were collected in 2017 and 2019 by the Policy Studies Institute for AGP II baseline study and midline evaluation. Among these, 69% (2404) were male-headed and 31% (1070) were female-headed households. The panel data were combined with DID, Oaxaca Decomposition, and the Random effect Tobit model to investigate the gender gap. The result from the DID Method of Impact Evaluation shows that female-headed households were less productive by 3.7% and 2.05 quintals per hectare when measured in terms of value in birr and quintals per hectare compared to male-headed households. In contrast, male-headed households were more productive by 4% and 2.05 quintals compared to female-headed households. Additionally, the results from the pooled and random effect Tobit model showed that soil fertility, sex of the household head, slope of the land, total livestock holding in TLU, extension contact, use of inorganic fertilizer, credit use, machinery use, and plantation method are among the determinants of the gender gap in agricultural productivity. Furthermore, results from the Oaxaca decomposition show that a gender productivity difference between male and female-headed households was roughly 11.2% when measured by value and 5% when measured by an area-weighted formula. The main finding of the study is that endowment effects were less likely to have a significant impact on the productivity gap than structural effects did. Differences in the unexplained characteristics of men and women may also contribute to the considerable productivity gap between male-headed and female-headed households. Therefore, working on women's empowerment to improve their structural disadvantages through various training programs that favor women or gender-mainstreamed extension training programs for lowering gender productivity differentials is a possible policy option.

Consumer Food Safety Awareness and Demand for Fluid Milk: A Case Study from India

ABSTRACT: Despite significant improvements in consumers’ food safety awareness, the literature provides little or no evidence of the impact of food safety awareness on the quantity of fluid milk consumers purchased. This is especially true for India’s consumers, where the economy is changing rapidly regarding food marketing, incomes, urbanization, and increased demand for food safety.The study is based on primary data from a survey of consumers from urban and peri-urban districts in India. The survey collected information on socioeconomic characteristics, dairy consumption, purchasing patterns, and food safety awareness. This study first creates a food safety awareness (FSA) index to measure consumers’ awareness of food safety attitudes and perceptions. It investigates the factors affecting consumers’ food safety awareness and FSA’s impact on fluid milk demand. The study uses a newly developed impact evaluation method, continuous treatment matching estimation, and dose-response functions (DRFs) to assess the impact of FSA on consumers’ fluid milk purchases. Findings show that educational attainment, sources of information on food safety, age, and gender of the head of the household significantly influenced consumers’ food safety awareness. Further, the study finds that food safety awareness positively impacts the demand for fluid milk. After controlling for milk prices and family income, Indian consumers aware of and adopt seven or more food safety habits or practices are likely to demand more fluid milk. Results are robust to specifications, income levels, and the location of households. The link between food safety awareness and the quantity of milk purchased implies a latent consumer demand for food safety. Any consumer awareness programs and policies supporting milk and its products’ hygienic production will likely increase demand for milk and dairy products. At a policy level, credible systems can be put in place for food certification and labeling, which enhance the availability of safe and hygienic food.

Systems approaches to public service delivery: methods and frameworks

AbstractResearchers and practitioners are increasingly embracing systems approaches to deal with the complexity of public service delivery and policy evaluation. However, there is little agreement on what exactly constitutes a systems approach, conceptually or methodologically. We review and critically synthesize systems literature from the fields of health, education, and infrastructure. We argue that the common theoretical core of systems approaches is the idea that multi-dimensional complementarities between a policy and other aspects of the policy context are the first-order problem of policy design and evaluation. We distinguish between macro-systems approaches, which focus on the collective coherence of a set of policies or institutions, and micro-systems approaches, which focus on how a single policy interacts with the context in which it operates. We develop a typology of micro-systems approaches and discuss their relationship to standard impact evaluation methods as well as to work in external validity, implementation science, and complexity theory.

Unequal, Unreliable, and Unfixable?—The Need to Investigate Water Infrastructure Improvements in Intermittent Supply Systems

AbstractInfrastructure deterioration threatens urban water security and the pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6, “water for all”). One billion urban residents worldwide already face intermittent piped water access, making their public water supply unreliable and unequal. Thus, effective investments in water infrastructure improvements are critical. In a recent WRR paper, Jeuland et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033897) evaluate the impacts of a large infrastructure improvement project on various water security metrics and assess the challenges of such an investigation. They apply a rigorous difference‐in‐difference approach to data from a US$275 million investment in upgrades to water supply and sewage networks in the Zarqa governorate in arid Jordan, analyzing its effects on households, businesses, farms, and the water utility. The authors find a range of moderate improvements to water access and re‐use metrics, including a significant reduction in reported shortages. Key water security indicators related to access intermittency, however, such as the supply duration per day and the expenditure on water deliveries by tanker trucks, saw little to no improvement. The findings reveal that the efforts required to overcome the insecurity and inequity of intermittent public water supply systems might be considerably larger than expected. This suggests an urgent need to further enhance both the accuracy of impact evaluation methods and the effectiveness of infrastructure investments to support the pursuit of SDG 6.

Research on dynamic evaluation method of individual scientific impact under multiple key nodes

Introduction. The purpose of this paper is to research an evaluation method for the development trend of the scientific impact of individual scientists before and after different key nodes in scientific careers. Method. This paper focuses on scientists at universities in Shanghai who obtained their first key programmes from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) from 2011 to 2015. A two-node piecewise linear regression is used to divide the scientists’ individual academic trajectories. The Boston Consulting Group matrix (BCG-M) model is used to propose four types of talent. Analysis. The pr(y)-index is applied to evaluate the scientists’ impact. Several characteristics of the trajectory of the impact of individual scientists are defined by the change in the pr(y)-index growth rate. Results. The scientific impact of most scientists (66% and 62%) increased after they first obtained NSFC funding or their first key programme, respectively. The pr(y)-index of a 5-year time window is more sensitive to judge the of influence on scientific career. Conclusion. The two-node piecewise linear regression model successfully divided the academic trajectories of individual scientists into three stages。NSFC funding promotes academic influence. The talents are divided into star talent, focus talent, question talent and taurus talent.

Environmental Impact of Different Business Models: An LCA Study of Fresh Tomato Production in Italy

This paper aims to define and measure the environmental impacts associated with three distinct industry techniques used in the production of fresh tomatoes, from planting to harvesting. A comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is conducted to evaluate the environmental performance of producing one kilogram of fresh processing tomatoes. The study includes three Italian companies representing different Business Models: standard production, integrated production, and precision farming. The impact evaluation method used is ReCiPe, at both midpoint and endpoint levels. The results reveal that the adoption of advanced technology, such as precision farming, in managing the agricultural production of fresh tomatoes leads to a significant reduction in environmental impacts across all categories analyzed. Interestingly, the largest contribution to climate-changing gases comes from the use of fertilizers. Precision farming demonstrates a remarkable reduction of CO2 emissions by 52% compared to integrated production and 67% compared to standard production. This analysis provides valuable insights for managers and policymakers in developing strategies for large-scale, sustainable production using innovative techniques. The main contribution of this study lies in comparing the performance of three different Business Models employed in Italian fresh tomato production.

Ex-post impact evaluation of PPP projects from multiple stakeholder perspectives: a toll road case

PurposeThis study aims to develop an ex-post impact evaluation method for public-private partnership projects (PPP) that addresses one of its main difficulties: the multiplicity of perspectives and stakeholders that exist in these projects.Design/methodology/approachThis study first developed a conceptual evaluation framework called ‘Project Success Evaluation Pyramid Model’ (PSEPM) that was designed using a Design Science approach. Second, an impact evaluation method was designed based on the PSEPM. This evaluation method was tested and refined using three PPP projects. This article presents the refined conceptual model PSEPM, the evaluation method and one of the three tests: the PPP toll road.FindingsThe impact evaluation method describes how to evaluate the impact of an existing mega project from the perspective of multiple stakeholders and isolate the impact of the procurement method. Its application in practice is demonstrated with a PPP toll road project in Chile, in which 11 stakeholders were identified. Issues such as city segregation, deficient business model, the relevance of infrastructure availability, and deficient service-fee strategy were identified in the project. The evaluation method provides a judgement about the use of the PPP procurement method and about the overall impact of the project, reconciling the stakeholder perspectives.Originality/valueThe use of this approach could give greater clarity and legitimacy to the discussion over the use of PPPs by evaluating existing projects beyond the use of traditional time and cost measurements. Its originality is the systematic recognition and identification of stakeholder motives, purposes, and judgements over a project.

Study design and baseline to evaluate water service provision among peri-urban communities in Kasai Oriental, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

We present a study design and baseline results to establish the impact of interventions on peri-urban water access, security and quality in Kasai Oriental province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In standard development practice, program performance is tracked via monitoring and evaluation frameworks of varying sophistication and rigor. Monitoring and evaluation, while usually occurring nearly concurrently with program delivery, may or may not measure parameters that can identify performance with respect to the project's overall goals. Impact evaluations, often using tightly controlled trial designs and conducted over years, challenge iterative program evolution. This study will pilot an implementation science impact evaluation approach in the areas immediately surrounding 14 water service providers, at each surveying 100 randomly-selected households and conducting water quality assessments at 25 randomly-selected households and five water points every three months. We present preliminary point-of-collection and point-of-use baseline data. This study is utilizing a variety of short- and medium-term monitoring and impact evaluation methods to provide feedback at multiple points during the intervention. Rapid feedback monitoring will assess the continuity of water services, point-of-consumption and point-of-collection microbial water quality, household water security, household measures of health status, ability and willingness to pay for water and sanitation service provision, and service performance monitoring. Long-term evaluation will focus on the use of qualitative comparative analysis whereby we will investigate the combination of factors that lead to improved water access, security and quality.

Effects of land titling on household tenure security and investments: Evidence from Nicaragua

We analyze the impacts of systematic land tenure rights formalization under the Land Administration Program (PRODEP) in Nicaragua. We use quasi-experimental impact evaluation methods, based on data collected for this purpose, to analyze the impact of titling on tenure security, land value, and household-level investments. Based on these methods which help isolate the effects of the program, we find that titling under PRODEP contributed to an increase of 2.8% in landowners’ perception of tenure security and of up to 39% increase in perceived value of their land. Women that obtained their titles during the second phase of the program were more likely than men, about 9% more, to report an increase in the value of their land. While the outcomes of the program are encouraging, the study did not find conclusive impacts in household investments resulting from titling. Data and knowledge on the program’s targeting suggest that, because of pre-program high levels of tenure security (potentially an anticipation effect) household investments and land transactions were already taking place. Also, data on the program context points to a lack of initiatives, including those supporting local economic development, housing improvements, or livelihoods’ support, which could have boosted the results from PRODEP’s titling.

Big data analysis of water quality monitoring results from the Xiang River and an impact analysis of pollution management policies.

Water pollution prevention and control of the Xiang River has become an issue of great concern to China's central and local governments. To further analyze the effects of central and local governmental policies on water pollution prevention and control for the Xiang River, this study performs a big data analysis of 16 water quality parameters from 42 sections of the mainstream and major tributaries of the Xiang River, Hunan Province, China from 2005 to 2016. This study uses an evidential reasoning-based integrated assessment of water quality and principal component analysis, identifying the spatiotemporal changes in the primary pollutants of the Xiang River and exploring the correlations between potentially relevant factors. The analysis showed that a series of environmental protection policies implemented by Hunan Province since 2008 have had a significant and targeted impact on annual water quality pollutants in the mainstream and tributaries. In addition, regional industrial structures and management policies also have had a significant impact on regional water quality. The results showed that, when examining the changes in water quality and the effects of pollution control policies, a big data analysis of water quality monitoring results can accurately reveal the detailed relationships between management policies and water quality changes in the Xiang River. Compared with policy impact evaluation methods primarily based on econometric models, such a big data analysis has its own advantages and disadvantages, effectively complementing the traditional methods of policy impact evaluations. Policy impact evaluations based on big data analysis can further improve the level of refined management by governments and provide a more specific and targeted reference for improving water pollution management policies for the Xiang River.

A Book-Influence-Evaluation Method Based on User Ratings of E-Commerce Platform

In online social networks, finding high-influence nodes is a crucial component of complex network research. A new book impact evaluation method based on user rating is proposed in this research for the social network created by the buying and selling behaviors on the e-commerce platform. It intends to rank the book nodes in accordance with customer feedback data following user purchases. The method calculates the influence score of a book by predicting its popularity based on user evaluations of the book. To verify the validity and accuracy of the method, the research analyzes a real review dataset from Amazon, a large e-commerce platform, and designs two comparison experiments with different time spans and compares them with five other web analytics metrics. The experimental findings show that the method is efficient and precise in evaluating the influence of book nodes.

A new academic impact metric for evaluating geographic simulation models

ABSTRACT Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models, but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study, an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights, and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method, and the major research areas that models impact are identified.

The Environmental Profile of Ecuadorian Export Banana: A Life Cycle Assessment

Ecuador is one of the largest banana exporters in the world. This sector generates wealth and employment in the country. Life cycle method tools support finding critical points and improvement measures in systems. In this study, the Ecuadorian banana is evaluated through life cycle assessment (LCA), including agriculture, packaging, transfer to the Port of Guayaquil, and transport to a foreign port. OpenLCA software was used, applying the Recipe Midpoint (H) V1.13 impact evaluation method and using primary data collected from a local producer and secondary data from Ecoinvent 3.6 databases, Agribalyse 3.0.1, and the literature. Functional units were established at three levels: “1 ton of Banana at-the-farm-gate”; “1 ton of Banana at-the-packaging-stage-gate”; and “1 ton of Banana at-the-port-of-destination”. The impact categories evaluated are climate change (GWP100), fossil depletion (FDP), freshwater eutrophication (FEP), marine eutrophication (MEP), ozone layer depletion (ODPinf), particulate matter formation (PMFP), formation of photochemical oxidants (POFP), and terrestrial acidification (TAP100). The carbon footprint (GWP100) of “Banana at-the-farm-gate”, “Banana at-the-packaging-stage-gate”, and “Banana at-the-foreign-port” ranged from 194 to 220, 342 to 352, and 615.41 to 625.44 kg CO2-Eq/Ton banana, respectively. Hotspots of the system are the fertilizer field emissions, cardboard packaging, rachis disposal, and maritime transport. Improvement measures should focus on reducing the amount of fertilizers and developing circular alternatives for residual biomass valorization.

Have protected areas in China achieved the ecological and economic “win-win” goals? Evidence from the Giant Panda Reserves of the Min Mont Range

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation policies is a primary means in support of continued expansion and improved management of protected areas (PAs) for wildlife. This study assesses the ecological and economic effectiveness of giant panda PAs in the Mont Min Range of southwest China, by taking advantage of the cutting-edge impact evaluation methods and a large panel dataset derived from remote sensing images, GIS data, and socioeconomic statistics. Our results show that the most prominent effects are the increase in giant panda activities, the improvement of forest cover, the development of ecotourism and environmentally friendly agriculture, and the growth of farmer income. Also, the PAs have not caused ecological damage and poverty to undesignated areas outside of them. Meanwhile, they have not enhanced the growth of bamboo resources nor mitigated the threat of intense human pressures. Overall, the PAs have thus achieved a “win-win” outcome. Our study contributes to improved understanding and action of wildlife conservation not only for China but also for many other parts of the world.

Impact of Sub Watershed Management Program on Household Livelihoods of Humbo District in Southern Ethiopia: Instrumental Variable Approach

This study is aimed at assessing effect of watershed management program on livelihood of households of selected sub watersheds in Humbo District. To carry out the study objectives, from econometrics models instrumental variable (IV) method was applied from among different impact evaluation methods with the sample size of 330 households. The results of econometric estimation revealed that household age, education, adoption, consumption expenditure, material possession, extension contact, productivity of crops, upstream and downstream and employment were positively and significantly related with HHDI at 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance. To examine the validity of instrumental variables estimation, different diagnosis tests like normality tests of the model, endogeneity test, tests of weak instruments, tests of over identifying restriction, multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity were employed. After identification and testing of IV result, the 2SLS estimation was conducted for evaluating Impact. Accordingly, adoption of watershed program has positive and significant impact (31%) on HHDI of the sample households in the study area. Therefore, the result indicate that with adoption of watershed management program, household on livelihoods can improve.

Integrated assessment of a payment for ecosystem services program in China from the effectiveness, efficiency and equity perspective

Despite growing interest in understanding the outcomes of payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs, there are few systematic and quantitative studies, particularly integrated assessments that consider ecological effectiveness, economic efficiency, and social equity (3E). By integrating remote sensing images, geographic information, household survey data, and policy documents, we present a demonstration from China between 2000 and 2015, which implemented PES programs extensively. At the forest patch level, the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP) increased forest coverage by 1.35%–2.03%. Furthermore, the EWFP respectively added 68.23–72.55 ton ha−1, 1.87–2.09 ton ha−1, 23.39–35.81 ton ha−1, and 10.12–11.11 MWh ha−1 of water conservation, soil retention, flood regulation, and local climate regulation services. Our results were consistent using different impact evaluation methods. However, forest recovery was achieved at high economic cost, with one hectare increase of forest cover costing 211,000–319,000 USD. EWFP participants experienced lower increases in human well-being and more unequal income distribution compared to non-participants, largely due to the rapid and disproportional increase of business income such as nature-based tourism. We provide recommendations to improve the multidimensional outcomes of PES programs in our study area and beyond. Although our study is an integrated assessment of one PES program, the 3E perspective and methodology may also apply to other conservation policies.

The The Impact of the Heutagogy Approach on Responsibilities for Online Learning in Statistics Courses

This study aims to determine: (1) learning responsibilities and; (2) positive, negative and accompaniment impacts that occur after learning statistics using the heutagogy approach. This study uses an impact evaluation method with a goal free evaluation model. The population of this study was 104 students who took the Statistics course in the Odd Semester 2020. The sample was selected using a systematic technique as many as 82 students. The research data were collected from grades and assignments documents, interviews and learning responsibility questionnaires. The quality of the instrument was controlled using item validity and reliability with a halving technique. The validity of the qualitative data was controlled by means of document triangulation and interviews. The results showed: (1) the highest learning responsibility was in the learning effort, followed by discipline, independence, motivation and honesty; (2) the positive impact is felt by students in the upper group because they are more successful in learning anytime and anywhere, the negative impact is felt by the lower group because it opens up opportunities to look for examples of friends' answers. The impact of the accompaniment is that there is cooperation in the face of difficulties

Extreme Flood Disasters: Comprehensive Impact and Assessment

Evaluating extreme flood disasters is a prerequisite for decision making in flood management. Existing extreme flood disaster assessments fail to either consider or evaluate comprehensive impacts from social, economic, and environmental aspects. This study first analyzes the causes of extreme flood disasters and subsequently the potential flood consequences in depth. On the basis of this comprehensive analysis, an extreme flood disaster indicator system is developed by taking into account social, economic, and environmental consequences. To assess the comprehensive impacts, we propose a refined social and economic impact evaluation method and a semi-quantitative environmental impact evaluation method, which are applied to Jingjiang Flood Diversion District (JFDD) located in the Yangtze River Basin, and analyze two extreme flood scenarios. The results show that almost all of the JFDD area is flooded with inundation areas of 901.36 km2 and 879.49 km2, respectively. The corresponding affected populations are 0.51 million and 0.5 million. The direct economic losses are 18.83 billion and 14.33 billion, respectively. Moreover, 5 potential pollutant sources and 11 protected areas are inundated under two scenarios. Extreme floods have relatively serious impacts on local ecology and the environment. The proposed methodology can provide effective support for decision makers.