Survival Bias Research Articles

Effect of surgery versus chemotherapy in pancreatic cancer patients: a target trial emulation.

To estimate the causal effect of surgery vs chemotherapy on survival in patients with T1-3NxM0 pancreatic cancer in a rigorous framework addressing selection bias and immortal time bias. We used population-based Danish health-care registries to conduct a cohort study emulating a hypothetical randomized trial to estimate the absolute difference in survival, comparing surgery with chemotherapy. We included pancreatic cancer patients diagnosed during 2008-2021. Exposure was surgery or chemotherapy initiated within a 16-week grace period after diagnosis. At the time of diagnosis, data of each patient were duplicated; one copy was assigned to the surgery protocol, and one copy to the chemotherapy protocol of the hypothetical trial. Copies were censored when the assigned treatment deviated from the observed treatment. To account for informative censoring, uncensored patients were weighted according to confounders. For comparison, we also applied a more conventional analysis using propensity score-based inverse probability weighting. We included 1744 patients with a median age of 68 years: 73.6% underwent surgery, and 18.6% had chemotherapy without surgery; 7.8% received no treatment. The 3-year survival was 39.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 36.7% to 42.6%) after surgery and 22.7% (95% CI = 17.7% to 28.4%) after chemotherapy, corresponding to an absolute difference of 17.0% (95% CI = 10.8% to 23.1%). In the conventional survival analysis, this difference was 23.0% (95% CI = 17.0% to 29.0%). Surgery was superior to chemotherapy in achieving long-term survival for pancreatic cancer. The difference comparing surgery and chemotherapy was substantially smaller when using the clone-censor-weight approach than conventional survival analysis.

Reintubation Rate and Mortality After Emergent Airway Management Outside the Operating Room.

Little is known about reintubations outside of the operating room. The objective of this study was to evaluate the reintubation rate and mortality after emergent airway management outside operating room (OR), including intensive care unit (ICU) and nonICU settings. A retrospective cohort study. The primary outcome measures were reintubation rate and mortality. Secondary outcome measures were location and indication for intubation, time until reintubation, total intubated days, ICU-stay, hospital-stay, 30-day in-hospital mortality, and overall in-hospital mortality. A total of 336 outside-OR intubations were performed in 275 patients. Of those 275 patients, 51 (18.5%) were reintubated during the same hospital admission. (41%) of the reintubations occurred in a non-ICU setting. Reintubations occurred after up to 30-days after extubation. Most frequently between 7 and 30 days (32.8%, n = 20). Most of the reintubated patients were reintubated just once (56.9%; n = 29), but some were reintubated 2 times (29.4%; n = 15) or over 3 times (13.7%; n = 7). Reintubated patients had significant longer total ICU-stay (24 ± 3 days vs 12 ± 1 day, p < .001), hospital stay (37 ± 3 vs18 ± 1, p < .001), and total intubation days (8 ± 1 vs 7 ± 0.6, P < .02). The 30-day in-hospital mortality in reintubated patients was 13.7% (n = 7) compared to nonreintubated patients 35.9% (n = 80; P = .002). Reintubation was associated with a significant increase in hospital and ICU stay. The higher mortality rate among nonreintubated patients may indicate survival bias, in that severely sick patients did not survive long enough to attempt extubation.

Utility of structured follow-up imaging after aortic surgery

BackgroundAlthough postoperative follow-up after aortic surgery is recommended by guidelines, its clinical utility is not well documented. We hypothesized that structured follow-up imaging by an aortic program would improve outcomes. We then documented radiologic findings on asymptomatic postoperative imaging. MethodsAll patients who survived to discharge after open thoracic aortic surgery between January 2017 and July 2021 were included, excluding endocarditis. Patients who followed at our center and received scheduled imaging were compared with patients who did not. Survival was analyzed by the method of Kaplan–Meier, and reintervention was assessed using the Fine–Gray subhazard function. Routine imaging was reviewed for aortic growth, pseudoaneurysm, and perigraft density. ResultsAfter aortic surgery, the cumulative incidence of follow-up was 38.6% at 3 years postoperatively. Patients with follow-up were more likely to have a dissection and fewer comorbidities but were similar in regards to socioeconomic factors and distance to hospital. After matching and accounting for immortal time bias, patients with follow-up had a greater reintervention rate (26.0% vs 9.0%) with similar survival (98.7% vs 95.2%, P = .110) at 4 years. The cumulative incidence of pseudoaneurysm, significant perigraft density, and growth ≥3 mm/year on routine imaging was 49.7% at 3 years. ConclusionsImplementation of structured follow-up imaging by an aortic program resulted in low clinical compliance. Follow-up was associated with increased rates of aortic reintervention. Clinically relevant radiologic findings were common on asymptomatic imaging and increased throughout 5-year follow-up rather than plateauing in the early postoperative period.

Association between statin use and tuberculosis risk in patients with bronchiectasis: a retrospective population-based cohort study in Taiwan

BackgroundChronic airway diseases have been associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis (TB); however, data in patients with bronchiectasis is limited. Statins have been shown to exhibit anti-inflammatory effects by...

The role of cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN) in the immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) era of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC): A systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of 2319 patients.

425 Background: The combination of CN and systemic therapy has been established as one of the mainstay treatments for mRCC during the targeted therapy era. However, the role of CN in the ICI era remains unclear. Methods: We performed a systematic search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases until August 26th, 2023, for studies comparing the combination of CN + ICI vs. ICI alone in mRCC. Using published Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) curves, we reconstructed IPD and then performed one-stage and two-stage meta-analyses with both parametric and non-parametric effect estimates. To account for immortal time bias, we performed 6-month and 12-month landmark analyses. We also performed a subgroup analysis according to ICI line of treatment. The risk of bias was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool. Results: We identified eight retrospective cohort studies fulfilling our inclusion criteria. Only two out of eight studies adjusted for immortal time bias and none of them adequately adjusted for all predetermined confounding factors. A total of 2319 (1264 CN + ICI and 1055 ICI only) patients were included in our analysis. Patients in CN + ICI group were younger (median age 58.2 vs. 62.8), had lower proportions of non-clear cell histology (8.8% vs. 15.2%), ≥2 metastatic sites (60.0% vs. 68.5%), liver metastases (9.0% vs. 21.9%), and poor IMDC risk score (21.7% vs. 43.9%), but had higher proportions of sarcomatoid histology (15.6% vs. 10.6%) and ≥2nd line treatment (38.1% vs. 17.1%). The combination of CN + ICI was associated with superior OS in the one stage (HR: 0.45, 95% CI 0.38–0.52), 6-month landmark (HR: 0.45, 95% CI 0.37–0.54), 12-month landmark (HR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.31–0.50) and two-stage (HR: 0.38, 95% CI 0.29–0.49) meta-analyses. Similarly, the combination of CN + ICI was associated with superior OS in the subgroup of patients receiving first-line ICI (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.30–0.48). Conclusions: The combination of CN + ICI for mRCC may be associated with superior OS compared to ICI alone, but currently available data are subject to selection bias. More studies, including well-designed randomized controlled trials, are needed to determine the role of CN in the ICI era. [Table: see text]

Real-world analyses of mortality risk after androgen deprivation therapy initiation in Black vs. White patients with prostate cancer.

84 Background: 2 studies found significantly longer overall survival in Black vs. White patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (PCa): a 2019 meta-analysis of 9 phase III trials and a 2020 registry study. Our real-world data study compared all-cause mortality risk for Black vs. White PCa patients. Compared to the prior studies, our study encompasses a broader scope and is not exclusive to men with castration-resistant PCa. Methods: Data were collected from the Decision Resources Group Real World Evidence repository, which links medical and prescription claims, and US Electronic Healthcare Records. The analysis set included PCa patients who received ≥1 androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) injection between 1991-2020. Cox regression was used to compare all-cause mortality rates between White and Black patients. Multivariable regression model accounted for the following variables: baseline metastasis, BMI, oncology vs. urology setting, antagonist vs. agonist, personal major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) history, tobacco history, baseline PSA (&gt;4 vs. ≤4 ng/mL), race (White vs. Black), statin use, increasing age per year, ethnicity (non-Hispanic vs. Hispanic), increasing ADT exposure per year, diabetes, hypertension, and family MACE history. Results: 44,439 patients were included for the all-patient analyses. 34,762 patients were included in the Black vs White analyses: 5,817 and 28,945 were Black and White, respectively. Overall, mortality risk was 2.6% and 17% at 1 and 4 years after ADT initiation, respectively. Mortality risk after ADT initiation was 1.6% and 2.6% at 1 year and 11.7% and 18.1% at 4 years for Black and White patients, respectively. Both unadjusted (HR=1.66, 95% CI 1.53-1.80, p&lt;0.05) and adjusted (HR=1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.52, p&lt;0.05) mortality risks were higher for White vs. Black patients. Conclusions: All-cause mortality incidence was higher in White vs. Black patients. Adding to the body of evidence, our research also reveals that Black race is associated with a protective effect on survival for all-cause mortality in men undergoing ADT. Potential hypotheses for higher mortality in White vs. Black patients include survival bias to MACE (i.e., Black patients may have died from PCa before having MACE), survival bias to be diagnosed with PCa (i.e., Black patients may have higher rate of CV death and kidney failure prior to PCa diagnosis), and protective effects of higher BMI in Black patients against cancer cachexia. The large size (~45,000 patients from a database with &gt;300 million patients), long follow-up (10 years for some patients), recent clinical experience (99% from 2010-2020), and diversity of the dataset give weight to the results being an accurate representation of current clinical experience. Future studies should confirm our findings that White PCa patients have higher mortality risk and investigate the above hypotheses.

Abstract WP273: The Association of Social Determinants of Health on Functional Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Background: It remains unknown which social determinants of health (SDOH) are impactful or when disparities begin to emerge in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). This study aimed to investigate the association between pre-stroke SDOH and post-stroke functional outcome. Methods: Data from the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) ICH cohort was used and included age, sex, ICH severity, history of hypertension, tobacco use, diabetes, coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, liver disease, history of dementia, and history of prior ICH. SDOH exposures included income bracket, educational attainment, marital status, race, and religion. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Score (mRS) measured at 12 months. Baseline characteristics, past medical history, and SDOH among those with mild stroke versus severe stroke were compared using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test and chi-square tests. Factors from the univariate analysis which were associated with stroke severity (p&lt;0.05) were included in a logistic regression model. Results: Of the 315 patients with available 12-month mRS, 180 (57%) had mRS scores &lt;3 or relatively good functional outcomes, and 135 (43%) had mRS scores &gt;=3 or relatively poor functional outcomes. The median age of those with low mRS was 69 compared to 76 for those with high mRS. Those with high mRS were more likely to have high school-only education or a diagnosis of dementia on admission compared to those with low mRS. Those with high school-only education were 2.94 times more likely than college diplomates to have high mRS (OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.57-5.53). Similarly, those with a diagnosis of dementia on admission, were 6.22 times more likely than those without a diagnosis of dementia to have high mRS (OR 6.22, 95% CI 1.70-22.75). Discussion: In addition to clinical determinants of age, ICH severity, and underlying dementia, educational attainment was an independent predictor of poor functional outcome after ICH. We recognize the impact of survival bias in our study design; however, we found differences in recovery despite this bias. Our findings suggest that disparities in outcomes exist even in relatively homogenous patient populations and that SDOH prior to an ICH still have associations with functional outcomes after stroke.

Effect of designations of index date in externally controlled trials: an empirical example

Abstract Objectives To create an external control arm (ECA) for a single arm trial, the choice of index date – when a patient becomes eligible for a study, is a complex issue. In real world data (RWD), patients commonly have multiple qualifying lines of therapy (LOT) which can be used to determine the index date. This study assessed the impact of different methods to assign the index date on the effectiveness estimates of the target drug versus conventional therapies and explored the impact of seven methods to assign the index date on the effectiveness estimates of the target drug versus conventional therapies. Methods A study using RWD was conducted in which patients received varied number of LOTs before qualifying for entry into the ECA. Two novel and five established indexing methods were examined for the ECA in this comparative effectiveness research. Baseline characteristics were adjusted by using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (sIPTW). Cox proportional hazards (PH) model was used for time-to-event endpoints and risk ratio (RR) was estimated from a binomial regression for response-based end points. Results Five methods (first eligible line [FEL], restricted-line, all eligible lines, random line, and stratified random line) demonstrated close clinical outcome estimates after adjustment of baseline differences via sIPTW. The FEL resulted in an inability to adjust for number of prior LOTs due to poor overlap of line distribution in this study. The last and second last eligible line cannot be recommended due to their inability to adjust for immortal time bias. Conclusions Multiple methods are available for selecting the most appropriate index date for an ECA, and this empirical study has indicated that certain methods yield comparable outcomes when the treatment effect and sample size are large. It is important for researchers to carefully assess the specifics of their studies and justify their selection of the most appropriate indexing method. Future research including simulations to evaluate the two novel stratified random line and SLEL methods is necessary.

Anticoagulant prescribing patterns in patients with primary central nervous system malignancies and secondary metastases.

To evaluate the safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) in patients with central nervous system (CNS) malignancies and secondary metastases. All adult patients with CNS malignancies and secondary metastases who were treated with a DOAC or LMWH for any indication from 2018 to 2022 were included. The primary outcome was the incidence of any intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) after anticoagulation initiation. Secondary outcomes included non-ICH bleeding events and thromboembolic events. Tolerability was assessed by any changes in anticoagulant therapy during study period. 153 patients were included; 48 patients received enoxaparin and 105 received DOACs, of which apixaban was used most commonly. The population was predominantly White (74%) and male (59%) with a median age of 65. Data was censored for immortal time bias for outcomes evaluated beyond 3months. ICH occurred in 7.7% of the population, more frequently in the enoxaparin group (DOACs 4, 4% vs. enoxaparin 7, 16%, p = 0.037). Non-ICH bleeds were predominantly minor and more common in the DOAC group (DOACs 13, 13% vs. enoxaparin 1, 2%, p = 0.037). Thromboembolic events were not different between groups (DOACs 9. 9% vs, enoxaparin 2, 4%, p = 0.503). Anticoagulant switches occurred more in the enoxaparin group (DOACs 12, 12.4% vs. enoxaparin, 37.8%, p < 0.001), primarily due to patient or provider preference. Our data supports DOACs to be preferred over LMWH for the treatment of VTE or for stroke prevention with AF to prevent ICH in patients with brain tumors or metastases.

Sources of bias in applying close-kin mark-recapture to terrestrial game species with different life histories.

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a method analogous to traditional mark-recapture but without requiring recapture of individuals. Instead, multilocus genotypes (genetic marks) are used to identify related individuals in one or more sampling occasions, which enables the opportunistic use of samples from harvested wildlife. To apply the method accurately, it is important to build appropriate CKMR models that do not violate assumptions linked to the species' and population's biology and sampling methods. In this study, we evaluated the implications of fitting overly simplistic CKMR models to populations with complex reproductive success dynamics or selective sampling. We used forward-in-time, individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of CKMR abundance and survival estimates in species with different longevities, mating systems, and sampling strategies. Simulated populations approximated a range of life histories among game species of North America with lethal sampling to evaluate the potential of using harvested samples to estimate population size. Our simulations show that CKMR can yield nontrivial biases in both survival and abundance estimates, unless influential life history traits and selective sampling are explicitly accounted for in the modeling framework. The number of kin pairs observed in the sample, in combination with the type of kinship used in the model (parent-offspring pairs and/or half-sibling pairs), can affect the precision and/or accuracy of the estimates. CKMR is a promising method that will likely see an increasing number of applications in the field as costs of genetic analysis continue to decline. Our work highlights the importance of applying population-specific CKMR models that consider relevant demographic parameters, individual covariates, and the protocol through which individuals were sampled.

Prognostic Effect of Incidental Pulmonary Embolism on Long-Term Mortality in Cancer Patients.

The effect of incidental pulmonary embolism (PE) on long-term prognosis in cancer patients is unclear. This study assessed the characteristics of cancer and venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the effect of incidental PE identified by oncologists on long-term survival of patients with cancer.Methods and Results:This single-center, retrospective, cohort study used hospital-based cancer registry data from the Osaka International Cancer Institute linked with electronic medical records and administrative data from Japan's Diagnosis Procedure Combination Per-diem Payment System. Overall, 15,689 cancer patients underwent contrast-enhanced thoracic computed tomography during 2010-2018. After excluding patients with missing data, symptomatic patients, or patients with suspected PE, 174 with incidental PE (PE+ group) and 13,197 with no PE (PE- group) were identified. The total incidence of incidental PE was 1.3%. No deaths from thrombotic events were identified in the PE+ group. Both groups were adjusted for cancer- and VTE-related characteristics using inverse probability weighting. After adjusting for immortal time bias in the PE+ group, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that all-cause mortality was higher in the PE+ group (hazard ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.33). A Cox proportional hazard model revealed that metastatic cancer and a history of curative treatment were significant prognostic factors, whereas central PE and residual proximal deep vein thrombosis were not. Incidental PE in cancer patients indicates poorer prognosis. Cancer-related but not thrombosis-related factors determine prognosis.

Effects of simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplantation in Japanese individuals with type 1 diabetes and end-stage kidney disease.

This single-center observational cohort study aimed to assess the potential benefits of simultaneous pancreas and kidney transplantation (SPK) in terms of mortality and kidney graft outcomes in Japanese individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). We first compared all-cause mortality rates between 78 SPK recipients and 108 non-transplanted individuals with T1D and ESKD. To mitigate the bias stemming from immortal time before receiving SPK, we utilized Cox regression models treating SPK as a time-dependent covariate. Next, we compared all-cause mortality rates and kidney graft loss rates between 65 SPK recipients and 58 kidney transplantation alone (KTA) recipients. Multivariate Cox hazard models and Fine and Gray competing-risk models were employed. SPK recipients experienced significantly lower all-cause mortality rates than non-transplanted individuals, even after accounting for immortal time bias (p = 0.015 by log-rank test, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.334, p = 0.025). When comparing SPK and KTA recipients, no statistically significant difference was observed in mortality rates (HR = 0.627, p = 0.588 by Cox model; HR = 0.385, p = 0.412 by Fine and Gray model) or kidney graft loss rates (HR = 0.612, p = 0.436 by Cox model; HR = 0.639, p = 0.376 by Fine and Gray model). Dysglycemia-associated mortality were observed in non-transplanted individuals and KTA recipients, but not in SPK recipients. These findings highlight the potential life-saving impact of SPK compared with intensive insulin therapy and dialysis. Additionally, this study suggests that both SPK and KTA may offer comparable outcomes. These findings have significant implications for clinical decision-making in the context of organ transplantation for individuals with T1D and ESKD.

Maternal Thyroid Dysfunction During Pregnancy as an Etiologic Factor in Autism Spectrum Disorder: Challenges and Opportunities for Research.

Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental condition with unknown etiology. Both genetic and environmental factors have been associated with ASD. Environmental exposures during the prenatal period may play an important role in ASD development. This narrative review critically examines the evidence for a relationship between maternal thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy and ASD in the child. Summary: Studies that assessed the associations of hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroxinemia, thyroid hormone concentrations, or autoimmune thyroid disease with ASD outcomes were included. Most research focused on the relationship between hypothyroidism and ASD. Multiple population-based studies found that maternal hypothyroidism was associated with higher likelihood of an ASD diagnosis in offspring. Associations with other forms of maternal thyroid dysfunction were less consistent. Findings may have been affected by misclassification bias, survival bias, or publication bias. Studies using medical records may have misclassified subclinical thyroid dysfunction as euthyroidism. Two studies that assessed children at early ages may have misclassified those with ASD as typically developing. Most studies adjusted for maternal body mass index (BMI) and/or mental illness, but not interpregnancy interval or pesticide exposure, all factors associated with fetal survival and ASD. Most studies reported a combination of null and statistically significant findings, although publication bias is still possible. Conclusions: Overall, evidence supported a positive association between maternal thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy and ASD outcomes in the child, especially for hypothyroidism. Future studies could reduce misclassification bias by using laboratory measures instead of medical records to ascertain thyroid dysfunction and evaluating children for ASD at an age when it can be reliably detected. Survival bias could be further mitigated by adjusting models for more factors associated with fetal survival and ASD. Additional research is needed to comprehensively understand the roles of maternal levothyroxine treatment, iodine deficiency, or exposure to thyroid-disrupting compounds in the relationship between maternal thyroid dysfunction and child ASD outcomes.

Socially responsible investments: doing good while doing well in developed versus emerging markets?

We investigate the performance of Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) in both developed and emerging countries. We do so by examining the performance of self-constructed equity portfolios based on SRI's mutual funds' current and historical holdings. Based on the current holdings, the SRI equity portfolios from emerging and developed countries significantly outperform their benchmarks, except for the Japanese stock portfolio. We mitigate the current holdings approach's potential look-ahead and survivorship bias by employing the historical holdings approach. The results change dramatically in developed markets: the outperformance of SRI is not significant in the U.S. – the dominant developed markets in the sample – and Japan. In emerging markets, the SRI's outperformance remains significant. It outperforms in both BRICS and Non-BRICS, and in terms of income, it consistently outperforms in the markets of middle-income countries.

Survivorship Bias, Or How Outreach Will Help Win the War on Libraries

Evidence of survivorship bias is present in all fields, including librarianship. This is especially true when searching for ways to attract new patrons. Libraries focus on the successes, that is, the patrons who come back. At all levels, from front-line staff to directors to board members, we focus on the current users, thinking that focus will bring new patrons. We want a higher percentage of community members to have library cards, so we look at what the current patrons are doing in our spaces and with the resources they are using. We dedicate our marketing and promotional efforts to programs with the highest attendance. We purchase more materials like the ones with the highest circulation. We look at when patrons will likely be in the building to schedule programs. This makes our current library users happy but misses the mark with our non-users. Outreach services can bridge the gap, though, and help libraries connect better with non-users.

Immune-Related Adverse Events and Survival Among Patients With Metastatic NSCLC Treated With Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Immune-related adverse events (irAEs) secondary to immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy reportedly improve overall survival (OS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, studies have been small and the association between irAE severity and OS remains poorly defined. To examine the association between irAEs and their severity with OS in patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC receiving ICIs. This retrospective observational cohort study included patients with NSCLC receiving ICIs between March 1, 2014, and November 30, 2021, with follow-up until March 31, 2023. Data analysis was completed April 26, 2023. The Alberta Immunotherapy Database, a provincial, multicenter cohort, was used to capture data from patients receiving ICIs in Alberta, Canada. Participants included 803 patients 18 years or older who received at least 1 cycle of ICI (alone or with chemotherapy), agnostic to treatment line. Developing an irAE mandating delay or discontinuation of ICI therapy and/or systematic corticosteroids for management of toxic effects (hereinafter referred to as clinically meaningful irAEs). The primary outcome was association between irAEs and OS according to Kaplan-Meier analysis. Clinically meaningful irAEs were identified. Patients with poor prognosis (survival <3 months) who may have died prior to irAE development were excluded from OS analysis, mitigating immortal time bias. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses ascertained variables associated with OS. Among the 803 patients included in the analysis, the median age of patients with irAEs was 69.7 (IQR, 63.1-75.2) years and the median age of those without irAEs was 67.5 (IQR, 60.4-73.3) years, with comparable sex distribution (139 of 295 men [47.1%] and 156 of 295 women [52.9%] with irAEs vs 254 of 505 men [50.3%] and 251 of 505 women [49.7%] without irAEs). Mitigating immortal time bias (n = 611), irAEs were associated with OS (median OS with irAEs, 23.7 [95% CI, 19.3-29.1] months; median OS without irAEs, 9.8 [95% CI, 8.7-11.4] months; P < .001). No OS difference was associated with treatment in hospital vs as outpatients for an irAE (median OS, 20.8 [95% CI, 11.7-30.6] vs 25.6 [95% CI, 20.1-29.8] months; P = .33). Developing irAEs remained associated with OS in the total cohort after Cox proportional hazards regression with known prognostic characteristics (hazard ratio, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.40-0.70]; P < .001). In this cohort study of 803 patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC receiving ICIs, developing a clinically meaningful irAE was associated with improved OS. This association was not compromised by hospitalization for severe toxic effects. Whether and how ICI therapy resumption after an irAE is associated with OS warrants further study.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes according to the timing of diagnosis of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy: a nationwide cross-sectional study of 695,912 deliveries in France in 2018.

We aimed to assess maternal-fetal outcomes according to various subtypes of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. We used data from the French National Health Data System (Système National des Données de Santé), which links individual data from the hospital discharge database and the French National Health Insurance information system. We included all deliveries after 22 gestational weeks (GW) in women without pre-existing diabetes recorded in 2018. Women with hyperglycaemia were classified as having overt diabetes in pregnancy or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), then categorised into three subgroups according to their gestational age at the time of GDM diagnosis: before 22 GW (GDM<22); between 22 and 30 GW (GDM22-30); and after 30 GW (GDM>30). Adjusted prevalence ratios (95% CI) for the outcomes were estimated after adjusting for maternal age, gestational age and socioeconomic status. Due to the multiple tests, we considered an association to be statistically significant according to the Holm-Bonferroni procedure. To take into account the potential immortal time bias, we performed analyses on deliveries at ≥31 GW and deliveries at ≥37 GW. The study population of 695,912 women who gave birth in 2018 included 84,705 women (12.2%) with hyperglycaemia in pregnancy: overt diabetes in pregnancy, 0.4%; GDM<22, 36.8%; GDM22-30, 52.4%; and GDM>30, 10.4%. The following outcomes were statistically significant after Holm-Bonferroni adjustment for deliveries at ≥31 GW using GDM22-30 as the reference. Caesarean sections (1.54 [1.39, 1.72]), large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infants (2.00 [1.72, 2.32]), Erb's palsy or clavicle fracture (6.38 [2.42, 16.8]), preterm birth (1.84 [1.41, 2.40]) and neonatal hypoglycaemia (1.98 [1.39, 2.83]) were more frequent in women with overt diabetes. Similarly, LGA infants (1.10 [1.06, 1.14]) and Erb's palsy or clavicle fracture (1.55 [1.22, 1.99]) were more frequent in GDM<22. LGA infants (1.44 [1.37, 1.52]) were more frequent in GDM>30. Finally, women without hyperglycaemia in pregnancy were less likely to have preeclampsia or eclampsia (0.74 [0.69, 0.79]), Caesarean section (0.80 [0.79, 0.82]), pregnancy and postpartum haemorrhage (0.93 [0.89, 0.96]), LGA neonate (0.67 [0.65, 0.69]), premature neonate (0.80 [0.77, 0.83]) and neonate with neonatal hypoglycaemia (0.73 [0.66, 0.82]). Overall, the results were similar for deliveries at ≥37 GW. Although the estimation of the adjusted prevalence ratio of perinatal death was five times higher (5.06 [1.87, 13.7]) for women with overt diabetes, this result was non-significant after Holm-Bonferroni adjustment. Compared with GDM22-30, overt diabetes, GDM<22 and, to a lesser extent, GDM>30 were associated with poorer maternal-fetal outcomes.

Association of Immune-Related Adverse Events and the Efficacy of Anti-PD-(L)1 Monotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Adjusting for Immortal-Time Bias.

The association between immune-related adverse events (irAEs) and survival outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with programmed death-(ligand) 1 [PD-(L)1] inhibitors remains controversial, partly due to variations in dealing with immortal-time bias (ITB). We retrospectively enrolled 425 advanced NSCLC patients who received anti-PD-(L)1 monotherapy between January 2016 and June 2021, stratifying them into irAE (n=127) and non-irAE (n=298) groups. The primary endpoint was to assess the impact of irAEs on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Landmark (2-, 3-, 6-, and 9-month) and time-dependent Cox analyses were performed to eliminate ITB. With a median follow-up of 38.8 months, the occurrence of overall irAEs was significantly associated with superior PFS (11.2 vs. 3.4 months, p < 0.001) and OS (31.4 vs. 14.0 months, p < 0.001), which persisted in landmark and time-dependent Cox analyses. For the main organ-specific irAEs, skin, thyroid, and hepatic irAEs, respectively, showed significantly improved survival compared to the non-irAE group, whereas pneumonitis did not. Single-organ irAEs had the best outcomes compared with multi-organ or no irAE, which also held across subgroups of skin, thyroid, and hepatic irAEs. Moreover, severe grade irAEs and immunotherapy discontinuation had a detrimental effect on survival, systemic steroid therapy showed little effect, while immunotherapy resumption had tolerable safety and a trend of improved survival. After adequately adjusting ITB, the occurrence of overall irAEs predicts for favorable efficacy of anti-PD-(L)1 monotherapy in NSCLC, with better outcomes observed in patients with skin, thyroid, or hepatic irAEs, particularly those with single-organ involvement.

Estimates of congenital cytomegalovirus-attributable infant mortality in high-income countries: A review.

As many as 5%-10% of infants with symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) disease, or 0.4%-0.8% of all liveborn infants with cCMV infection, die in early infancy in high-income countries. However, estimates are uncertain due to several potential biases that can result from data limitations and study designs. First, infants with cCMV infections who die prior to diagnosis, which usually occurs at 1-4weeks after birth, may be excluded from both the count of deaths and the denominator of cCMV births, resulting in left truncation and immortal time biases. These 'biases' are features of the data and do not reflect bias on the part of researchers, but understanding the potential existence of threats to validity can help with interpretation of findings. Left truncation of infant deaths occurring prior to diagnosis of cCMV can result in understatement of the burden of infant deaths due to cCMV. Conversely, overestimation of infant deaths associated with symptomatic cCMV may occur in clinical case series owing to greater representation of relatively severely affected infants owing to ascertainment and referral biases. In this review, we summarise the characteristics of 26 studies that reported estimates of cCMV-associated infant deaths, including potential biases or limitations to which those estimates may have been subject. We discuss study designs whose implementation might generate improved estimates of infant deaths attributable to cCMV. More complete estimates of the overall public health impact of cCMV could inform current and future screening, prevention, and vaccine research.

JYNNEOS™ effectiveness as post-exposure prophylaxis against mpox: Challenges using real-world outbreak data

BackgroundJYNNEOSTM vaccine has been used as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) during a mpox outbreak in New York City (NYC). Data on effectiveness are limited. MethodsEffectiveness of a single dose of JYNNEOSTM vaccine administered subcutaneously ≤ 14 days as PEP for preventing mpox disease was assessed among individuals exposed to case-patients from May 22, 2022–August 24, 2022. Individuals were evaluated for mpox through 21 days post-exposure. An observational study was conducted emulating a sequence of nested “target” randomized trials starting each day after exposure. Results were adjusted for exposure risk and race/ethnicity. Analyses were conducted separately based on last (PEPL) and first (PEPF) exposure date. We evaluated the potential to overestimate PEP effectiveness when using conventional analytic methods due to exposed individuals developing illness before they can obtain PEP (immortal time bias) compared to the target trial. ResultsMedian time from last exposure to symptom onset (incubation period) among cases that did not receive PEPL was 7 days (range 1–16). Time to PEPL receipt was 7 days (range 0–14). Among 549 individuals, adjusted PEPL and PEPF effectiveness was 19 % (95 % Confidence Interval [CI], −54 % to 57 %) and −7% (95 % CI, −144 % to 53 %) using the target trial emulation, respectively, and 78 % (95 % CI, 50 % to 91 %) and 73 % (95 % CI, 31 % to 91 %) using conventional analysis. ConclusionsDetermining PEP effectiveness using real-world data during an outbreak is challenging. Time to PEP in NYC coupled with the observed incubation period resulted in overestimated PEP effectiveness using a conventional method. The target trial emulation, while yielding wide confidence intervals due to small sample size, avoided immortal time bias. While results from these evaluations cannot be used as reliable estimates of PEP effectiveness, we present important methodologic considerations for future evaluations.