Imminent Violence Research Articles

Re-Examining the Predictive Validity and Establishing Risk Levels for the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression: Youth Version.

The Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression: Youth Version (DASA:YV) is a brief instrument, most often used by nurses and was specifically designed to assess risk of imminent violence in youth settings. To date, it has been recommended that DASA:YV scores are interpreted in a linear manner, with high scores indicating a greater level of risk and therefore need more assertive and immediate intervention. This study re-analyses an existing data set using contemporary robust data analytic procedures to examine the predictive validity of the DASA:YV, and to determine appropriate risk bands. Mixed effect logistic regression models were used to determine whether the DASA:YV predicted aggression when the observations are correlated. Two approaches were employed to identify and test novel DASA:YV risk bands, where (1) three risk bands as previously generated for the adult DASA were used as a starting point to consider recategorising the DASA:YV into three risk bands, and (2) using a decision tree analysis method known as Chi-square automated interaction detection to produce risk bands. There was no statistically significant difference between a four and three category of risk band. AUC values were 0.85 for the four- and three-category options. A three-category approach is recommended for the DASA:YV. The new risk bands may assist nursing staff by providing more accurate categorisation of risk state. Identification of escalation in risk state may prompt early intervention, which may also prevent reliance on the use of restrictive practices when young people are at risk of acting aggressively.

Co-design of a digital violence prevention and management tool for psychiatric inpatient care: focus on supporting integration into electronic health record system

IntroductionViolence in psychiatric inpatient settings is a global challenge. Several methods have been developed and tested to help staff prevent the occurrence of violence on the wards. One novel and effective method is eDASA+APP, originating from Australian forensic psychiatric settings (Maguire et al. Int J Ment Health Nurs 2019; 281186-1197, Griffith et al. Psychiatr Serv 2021; 72 885-890). This electronic method contains an instrument (DASA) to assess the risk for imminent violence and includes evidence-based violence risk management methods for risk levels. It is important to ensure that this electronic intervention is integrated into daily clinical practice. This can be done in co-design between all that are involved e.g., staff and experts by experience, and by encouraging them to achieve a common goal and gain benefits by working together.ObjectivesThis prevention gives an overview of how the Finnish version of eDASA+APP was co-designed with healthcare staff and experts by experience, focusing on integration into the electronic patient health record system. The presentation is part of a larger research project testing eDASA+APP in Finnish psychiatric inpatient care.MethodsCo-design workshops focusing on three major themes: 1) identifying current practices and how eDASA+APP would fit in those, 2) producing a linguistically and culturally appropriate version of eDASA+APP, and 3) preferred use of eDASA+APP in an electronic patient health record system. Notes were kept during the workshops by researchers. Qualitative material were analysed with deductive content analysis. Results from the third theme are shared in this presentation.ResultsStaff and experts by experience described that integration of eDASA+APP in electronic patient health record system is supported if it 1) brings clear and fast information to the staff about the violence risk of a patient, 2) is a visible measure that is concretely in sight in electronic patient health record system, 3) provides information about which violence prevention and management interventions have worked with a patient, 4) involves patient preferences, and 5) consist of joint decisions that have been agreed multi-professionally.ConclusionsIntegration of eDASA+APP in the electronic patient health record system has the potential to succeed if it is realized in cooperation with staff and experts by experience, is technically easy to use, and the users have an understanding of its benefits to everyone involved.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Comparing Mobility and Spatial Pathways in the Hourly Prediction of Violent Crime

Much research has documented the contagiousness of violence. Some of this work has focused on contagiousness as operationalized by the spread across geographical space, while other work has examined the spread within social networks. While the latter body of work struggles with incomplete network data, the former constitutes a theoretical mismatch with how violence should spread. Theory instead strongly suggests that violence contagion should diffuse through everyday mobility networks rather than just adjacently through geographical space. Beyond contagion itself, I argue that neighborhoods connected through mobility networks should serve as useful short-term sensors in predicting imminent violence because these sets of residents tend to experience shared environmental exposures, which may induce synchrony in the likelihood of violence. I explore this topic and these relationships using violent crime data from the three largest U.S. cities: New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Using two-way fixed effects models, I test whether or not violence in mobility-connected alter neighborhoods in the preceding hour predicts violence in an ego neighborhood in the next hour. Across all three jurisdictions, I find that recent violence in the neighborhoods to which a neighborhood is connected through mobility ties can strongly predict that neighborhood’s odds of subsequent violence. Furthermore, spatial proximity has no significant effect on the likelihood of violent crime after controlling for mobility ties. I conclude by arguing that mobility patterns are an important pathway in the prediction of violence.

The Polish Countryside as a Gray Zone: Village Heads and the Meso Level of the General Government, 1939–1945

This article focuses on a cluster of institutions rooted in Polish rural life that were co-opted by the German authorities into the lowest level of rule in occupied Poland from 1939-1945. It identifies these institutions as key meso-level structures that shaped the behavior of individuals on the ground. Specifically, it places the axis of analysis on the figure of the village head ( sołtys). It argues that the village security system, combined with the introduction of collective responsibility and imminent violence, was at the heart of a process of community-making, in which village heads inescapably played an important role. In this new dynamic of accountability, notions of “community” and “belonging” evolved relative to notions of “security” and “self-preservation” in the changing circumstances of life under occupation. The reimagined community forged in this wartime crucible was one of transformed identities, ingrained ethnic categories, new lines of solidarity, and new antagonisms. A collective biographical approach to village heads in this period culminates in the collective ethical dilemma as a category of historical analysis. The article draws primarily on testimonies found in postwar August Decree trials of individuals tried for collaboration in historic Western Galicia or District Krakow of the General Government. It employs a thick description of the subject to map personal narratives onto the broader social processes under examination.

Factors Affecting Stress Levels in Attendants Accompanying Patients to Emergency Department.

Staff in emergency departments work in an environment where they are continuously exposed to situations with aggressive patients and their caretakers. With increasing incidents of reported violence, the present study was conducted to identify factors associated with stress levels among patients' attendants. A prospective, cross-sectional, observational study was conducted among 256 attendants of patients presenting to Emergency Department (ED). Signs of stress and imminent violence were recorded using STAMP method at initial encounter. Stress levels were assessed using Perceived Stress Scale 10 and Visual Analog Scale at the end of 2 h during patient's stay in emergency department. Factors associated with stress were studied using linear regression analysis. There was a follow-up to estimate the level of stress, to identify risk factors and types of violence in the sample population. 98.9% of attendants exhibited some form of stress. Age of <40 years, female gender, single marital status, lower educational background, lack of previous experience with ED, perceived long waiting time, and first-degree relatives were the significant risk factors associated with high stress. Verbal aggression was the most common and frequent form of aggression. Noncritically ill patient attendants, no previous experience with EDs, graduates, middle age group, perceived long waiting time, and poor patient response to treatment were found to be risk factors for impending violence. Stress was exhibited in majority of caregivers. Further programs are needed to strengthen training for ED staff to identify early and impending violence and to develop coping mechanisms for well-being of both attendants and health-care professionals.

Emergency medical services professional behaviors with violent encounters: A prospective study using standardized simulated scenarios.

IntroductionTo evaluate emergency medical services (EMS) professional response to escalating threats of violence during simulated patient encounters and describe differences in behaviors by characteristics.MethodsEMS professionals of a large county‐based system participated in 1 of 4 standardized patient care scenarios. Each 8‐minute scenario included escalated threats of violence such that EMS personnel should escape the scene for safety. Trained evaluators recorded EMS professionals' performance using standardized data elements. Outcomes included EMS personnel escape and verbal de‐escalation attempts. Descriptive statistics and univariable odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) are reported.ResultsThere were 270 EMS professionals evaluated as individual members of 2‐person crews. Overall, 54% escaped the unsafe scene and 54% made an adequate de‐escalation attempt; 20% did not make an adequate de‐escalation attempt nor escape the unsafe scene. Paramedics demonstrated lower odds of escaping compared to emergency medical technicians (OR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.17–0.94), yet greater odds of adequate de‐escalation (OR: 3.17, 95% CI: 1.38–7.31). EMS professionals with more than 20 years of experience (OR: 0.32, 95% CI: 0.13–0.79, ref:2 years or less) and those with military experience (OR: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.17–0.81) demonstrated reduced odds of escaping. Crisis intervention team (CIT) training was associated with reduced odds of escape (OR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21–0.69), but increased odds of adequate de‐escalation (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.19–4.04).ConclusionsNearly half of EMS professionals did not remove themselves from a simulated patient care scenario with an escalating threat of physical violence. EMS‐specific training for de‐escalation as a first‐line technique, recognizing imminent violence, and leaving a dangerous environment is needed.

Dynamic risk factors reassessed regularly after release from incarceration predict imminent violent recidivism.

In community-based corrections, reassessment of dynamic risk factors improves the prediction of recidivism relative to initial risk assessment at the time of release. However, there is less evidence for predictions of violent recidivism. We examined whether reassessment proximity or aggregation of reassessments improved the prediction of imminent violence in a sample of paroled individuals on community supervision. We hypothesized that reassessment of dynamic risk would better predict violent recidivism than initial risk assessment at the time of release. Examination of aggregation and individual risk-factor domains was exploratory. In a prospective study of violent recidivism in a sample of individuals on community supervision in New Zealand (75,917 assessments from 3,421 participants; 92.8% men), we used supervision officers' ratings of dynamic risk (assessed using Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry [DRAOR]) and static risk scores (using the Risk of ReConviction × Risk of Imprisonment) to predict imminent violence (within 2 weeks). Individuals who recidivated violently had higher initial risk ratings (DRAOR Stable d = 0.36, 95% CI [0.17, 0.55]; DRAOR Acute d = 0.45, 95% CI [0.26, 0.64]) and showed more week-to-week fluctuations in risk ratings (DRAOR Stable d = 0.21, 95% CI [0.04, 0.41]; DRAOR Acute d = 0.26, 95% CI [0.06,0.46]). Total averages of faster-changing acute risk factors best predicted violence (c-index = 0.68), with changes in these factors incrementally predicting violence over well-established predictors (criminal history) and initial scores (Δχ2 = 15.54, df = 3). The constructs that best discriminated violence were consistent with social cognition explanations of violence. Because client consistency as determined through score aggregation was more important than current presentation, supervision officers should consider overall patterns of interpersonal hostility and reactivity rather than assuming the emerging presence of these factors will signal imminent violence among previously violent individuals. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Intimate partner violence during COVID-19 lockdown in Norway: the increase of police reports

BackgroundIn March 2020, the Norwegian government announced a COVID-19 lockdown in order to reduce the spread of the coronavirus. In Norway, lockdown measures included restricting people’s ability to leave their home and the closing of social institutions, thus reducing the capacity for victims of intimate partner violence to alert someone outside of their home about violent incidents that occurred during lockdown. At the same time, the restrictive measures forced the victim and the perpetrator to stay together for prolonged periods within the home, and reduced the possibility for them to escape or leave the perpetrator. The aim of this study was to investigate how the frequency and character of intimate partner violence reported to the police changed during the period of lockdown in Norway.MethodsAll cases of intimate partner violence registered in police files before the pandemic (from January 2016-February 2020) and during lockdown in Norway (March-December 2020) were included in the study, representing a total of 974 cases. Differences in the number and severity of cases were calculated using χ2-tests and Wilcoxon’s rank sum test. Differences in the characteristics of the reported violence was assessed with the Brief Spousal Assault form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) and tested with Fischer’s exact test with Bonferroni correction. Standardised Morbidity Rate (SMR) statistics were used to analyse the proportion of immigrants as compared to the general population.ResultsReported intimate partner violence increased by 54% during the lockdown period in Norway. Between March-December 2020, the police assessed the cases as being at higher risk of imminent and severe violence. Our findings indicated an overrepresentation of immigrant perpetrators before and during lockdown (SMR = 1.814, 95% CI = 1.792–1.836 before, and SMR = 1.807, 95% CI = 1.742–1.872 during lockdown). Notably, while victims with an immigrant background were overrepresented before lockdown, we found significantly lower proportion of immigrant IPV victims during the lockdown period (SMR = 1.070, 95% CI = 1.052–1.087 before, and SMR = 0.835, CI 95% CI = 0.787-0.883 during lockdown). Also, there were significantly more female perpetrators and male victims reported to the police during the lockdown period. A higher proportion of the victims were assessed as having unsafe living conditions and personal problems during lockdown. Finally, during the lockdown period in Norway, a higher proportion of perpetrators had a history of intimate relationship problems.ConclusionsIntimate partner violence increased dramatically during the COVID-19 lockdown. A range of options for victims to escape from their perpetrators, particularly during times of crisis, should be developed in line with good practice, and with a special focus on the most vulnerable victims.

Short-term risk assessments in an acute psychiatric inpatient setting: A re-examination of the Brøset Violence Checklist using repeated measurements – Differentiating violence characteristics and gender

This study investigated the association between short-term risk assessment measured by the Brøset Violence Checklist (BVC) and imminent violence using repeated measurements and differentiating violence characteristics and gender. All patients admitted to an acute psychiatric ward during one year (N = 528) were included. Logistic regression and generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) analyses were conducted. Results confirmed BVC's suitability for both male and female inpatients throughout their hospitalization also when differentiating threats and physical violence, and adjusting for diagnostic subpopulations and circadian variability. Results point to modified interpretations of the BVC sum scores. Future research should adjust for repeated measurements.

Time at Its Margins: Cattle Smuggling across the India-Bangladesh Border

This article resituates the study of time in anthropology, moving it from the comparative exploration of internally coherent religions and national territories to the very margins of religions, nations, and capital. Borders recalibrate time by imbuing mundane economic activities with political salience. Dangerous border crossings make temporal registers contingent and erratic, and generative of violence and torture. I show how India’s prohibitions on live cattle exports and Bangladesh’s demand for beef compel acts that effectively legalize animal smuggling, which, nonetheless, remains a risky business. Across the riverine islands of the India-Bangladesh borderlands, small-scale traders and transporters operate according to the distinct logics of militarized infrastructures and legal regimes that generate moments of “signal clear,” marking the temporary opening of border passages and opportunities for sustenance, as well as “armed” times, more sustained periods of heightened national security, and imminent violence. By subjecting the border’s productive and coercive temporal energies to close ethnographic scrutiny, I suggest that cattle’s sacrality reinforces the material world of capital and strife, ruptures kinship ties, and subjects Muslim cattle workers and their families to prolonged periods of scarcity and hunger. This article shows how people’s experiences of the borderland as a space are vitally shaped by fractured, shifting, and contingent rhythms of time.

A tool to evaluate proportionality and necessity in the use of restrictive practices in forensic mental health settings: the DRILL tool (Dundrum restriction, intrusion and liberty ladders)

BackgroundPrevention of violence due to severe mental disorders in psychiatric hospitals may require intrusive, restrictive and coercive therapeutic practices. Research concerning appropriate use of such interventions is limited by lack of a system for description and measurement. We set out to devise and validate a tool for clinicians and secure hospitals to assess necessity and proportionality between imminent violence and restrictive practices including de-escalation, seclusion, restraint, forced medication and others.MethodsIn this retrospective observational cohort study, 28 patients on a 12 bed male admissions unit in a secure psychiatric hospital were assessed daily for six months. Data on adverse incidents were collected from case notes, incident registers and legal registers. Using the functional assessment sequence of antecedents, behaviours and consequences (A, B, C) we devised and applied a multivariate framework of structured professional assessment tools, common adverse incidents and preventive clinical interventions to develop a tool to analyse clinical practice. We validated by testing assumptions regarding the use of restrictive and intrusive practices in the prevention of violence in hospital. We aimed to provide a system for measuring contextual and individual factors contributing to adverse events and to assess whether the measured seriousness of threating and violent behaviours is proportionate to the degree of restrictive interventions used. General Estimating Equations tested preliminary models of contexts, decisions and pathways to interventions.ResultsA system for measuring adverse behaviours and restrictive, intrusive interventions for prevention had good internal consistency. Interventions were proportionate to seriousness of harmful behaviours. A ‘Pareto’ group of patients (5/28) were responsible for the majority (80%) of adverse events, outcomes and interventions. The seriousness of the precipitating events correlated with the degree of restrictions utilised to safely manage or treat such behaviours.ConclusionObservational scales can be used for restrictive, intrusive or coercive practices in psychiatry even though these involve interrelated complex sequences of interactions. The DRILL tool has been validated to assess the necessity and demonstrate proportionality of restrictive practices. This tool will be of benefit to services when reviewing practices internally, for mandatory external reviewing bodies and for future clinical research paradigms.

EFFECT OF WOMEN’S PEACE BUILDING ACTIVITIES AND MITIGATION OF ELECTORAL CONFLICTS IN NAIROBI COUNTY, KENYA

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of women’s peace building activities and mitigation of electoral conflicts in Nairobi County, Kenya. &#x0D; Methodology: The study used descriptive research design. The study focused on the individual women who were involved in peace building activities. Data was gathered through questionnaires, interviews, and FGDs. In total, the researcher conducted 17 FGDs, consisting of 8-12 people. A total of 386 respondents filled the semi structured questionnaire. Simple random sampling was used to select the respondents to fill the questionnaire. Purposive sampling was used to select the members to participate in the FGDs. IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences (version 22) was used to analyze quantitative data. Percentages, frequencies, figures, bar charts, pie charts and tables were used to present results. Qualitative data was analyzed using coding and thematic analysis. Results were presented in form of themes and verbatim.&#x0D; Results: Conflicts mainly take part where there is mismatch in the goals to be achieved, conversely, the mismatched goals are realized and hence introducing conflict, which is equivalent to actors in pursuit of incompatible goals. Women play a crucial role in addressing electoral conflicts. From the findings, the peacebuilding activities that women in Nairobi County have participated in since 1992 are: having dialogues, providing advice, compassionate role, warning people of imminent violence, public sensitization and civic education, peace talks, stopping rumor spreading, and offering psychosocial support.&#x0D; Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: the government should educate women on rights and capacity of mind to bring positive change have an impact on the resultant influence in the community transformation. Women and youths should be encouraged, trained and empowered through attending peace seminars. Civil society needs to be fully involved and information on resolutions widely disseminated in effort to educate the society at large.

Blackness as Fighting Words

The resurgence of worldwide protests by activists of the Movement for Black Lives (BLM) has ushered a global reckoning with the meaning of this generation’s rallying cry – “Black Lives Matter.” As citizens emblazon their streets with this expression in massive artistic murals, the Trump administration has responded with the militarized policing of non-violent public demonstrations, revealing not merely a disregard for public safety, but far worse, a concerted dismantling of protestors’ First Amendment rights. Nevertheless, BLM protests have persisted. Accordingly, this Essay considers the implications of this generation’s acclamation of Black humanity amidst the social tensions exposed during the era of COVID-19. What does the Trump administration’s militarized response to BLM protests mean in a world mutilated by the scars of racial oppression, a wound laid bare by America’s racially biased, aggressive, and supervisory culture of policing?In response, much in the way Cheryl Harris revealed Whiteness as Property, this Essay suggests and defends Black identity itself, or Blackness – whether articulated by the pure speech of racial justice activists who affirm Black humanity, or embodied by the symbolic speech of Black bodies assembled in collective dissent in the public square – as “fighting words” in the consciousness of America, a type of public speech unprotected by the Constitution. The very utterance of the phrase “Black Lives Matter” tends to incite imminent violence and unbridled rage from police in city streets across America. Discussions of “Black Lives Matter” by pundits conjure images of subversion, disorder, and looting, the racialized narratives of social unrest commonly portrayed by the media. Yet, the words “Black Lives Matter” and the peaceful assembly of Black protestors also encapsulate the fire of righteous indignation burning in the hearts of minoritized citizens. This dynamic reflects unresolved tensions in the First Amendment’s treatment of race relations in America. Even more, it exposes the role of policing in smothering the Constitutional rights of Black and Brown citizens. This Essay provides three contributions to the ongoing discourse on policing in the United States. First, it reveals how unresolved racial tensions in the First Amendment – focusing specifically on ambiguities in the fighting words doctrine – perpetuate the racially biased, aggressive, and supervisory culture of American policing. Second, it analyzes how such unresolved racial tensions cast a dark shadow over the liberty of Black and Brown citizens who experience racism at the hands of police officers, yet avoid acts of protest for fear of bodily harm or arrest. Third, it illuminates the embeddedness of racism in American policing culture, more generally; a culture that not only constructs and reconstitutes the racial social order, but also degrades the dignity of Black and Brown citizens. Collectively, these insights lend support toward demands for police abolition from BLM activists. As this Essay concludes, until we as a nation wrestle with the unresolved racial subtext of modern policing – a racist culture woven into law that not only silences the legitimate protests of minoritized citizens in violation of their First Amendment rights, but also rationalizes callous violence at the hands of law enforcement – Black America will remain a peril to the veil of white supremacy that looms over the American constitutional order.

Risk assessment of imminent violence in acute psychiatry: a step towards an extended model

ABSTRACTAggression occurs frequently in mental health care settings, and studies have reported that 17% to 31% of patients admitted to acute psychiatric wards commit violence. Inpatients’ fluctuating mental states and behaviour patterns reinforce the need for an assessment instrument to predict potential violence in a timely manner. This naturalistic prospective inpatient study investigated whether an extended short-term risk assessment model that combines (a) short-term risk assessment with the Broset Violence Checklist (BVC), (b) patient’s own prediction of violence with the Self-Report Risk Scale (SRS) and (c) single items from the Violence Risk Screening 10 (V-RISK-10) provides better short-term predictive accuracy for violence than the BVC alone. All patients admitted to a psychiatric emergency hospital in Norway during one year were included (N = 508). Stepwise multivariate generalised linear mixed model analyses were conducted. When adjusting for repeated measurements, the results indicated that an extended model for short-term risk assessment, consisting of the BVC, SRS and Item 2 Previous and/or current threats from the V-RISK-10 explained more variance of imminent violence, compared to the BVC alone. Further studies are recommended to investigate whether the extended model provides a clinically better short-term risk prediction of imminent violence, compared to the BVC alone.

When the Flames are Licking at the Door: Standing Mechanisms for Conflict Prevention

AbstractEnhancing the effectiveness of conflict prevention is a major preoccupation of the international community. This article focuses on operational prevention of conflict, which entails diplomatic efforts to avert imminent violence in crisis situations. The conventional understanding is that these efforts are short‐term and sporadic. In contrast, this article identifies and analyzes a type of operational prevention that has been institutionalized in order to engage in continuous preventive action in a particular conflict. I define ‘institutionalized operational prevention’ as a standing mechanism that aims to prevent a conflict from becoming violent and prevent low‐level violence from escalating into large‐scale violence. The article discusses a number of such mechanisms that have been successful in this regard, and offers an explanation for their success. Policymakers should consider establishing standing prevention mechanisms in other situations that have a persistent risk of large‐scale violence. Where structural reforms are required to reduce this risk but are politically unfeasible, the standing mechanisms may be the only viable means of avoiding violence.

The Limits of Confidentiality: Informed Consent and Psychotherapy.

The Limits of Confidentiality: Informed Consent and Psychotherapy.

Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence in forensic psychiatric hospitals: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and AimsViolent behaviour by forensic psychiatric inpatients is common. We aimed to systematically review the performance of structured risk assessment tools for violence in these settings. MethodsThe nine most commonly used violence risk assessment instruments used in psychiatric hospitals were examined. A systematic search of five databases (CINAHL, Embase, Global Health, PsycINFO and PubMed) was conducted to identify studies examining the predictive accuracy of these tools in forensic psychiatric inpatient settings. Risk assessment instruments were separated into those designed for imminent (within 24 hours) violence prediction and those designed for longer-term prediction. A range of accuracy measures and descriptive variables were extracted. A quality assessment was performed for each eligible study using the QUADAS-2. Summary performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, and area under the curve value) and HSROC curves were produced. In addition, meta-regression analyses investigated study and sample effects on tool performance. ResultsFifty-two eligible publications were identified, of which 43 provided information on tool accuracy in the form of AUC statistics. These provided data on 78 individual samples, with information on 6,840 patients. Of these, 35 samples (3,306 patients from 19 publications) provided data on all performance measures. The median AUC value for the wider group of 78 samples was higher for imminent tools (AUC 0.83; IQR: 0.71–0.85) compared with longer-term tools (AUC 0.68; IQR: 0.62-0.75). Other performance measures indicated variable accuracy for imminent and longer-term tools. Meta-regression indicated that no study or sample-related characteristics were associated with between-study differences in AUCs. InterpretationThe performance of current tools in predicting risk of violence beyond the first few days is variable, and the selection of which tool to use in clinical practice should consider accuracy estimates. For more imminent violence, however, there is evidence in support of brief scalable assessment tools.

Campus Discourse and Democracy: Free Speech Principles Provide Sound Guidance Even after the Tumult of 2017

This Article argues that First Amendment doctrine provides a nuanced and adequate framework for responding to contemporary challenges involving the intersection of free speech, protests, outside agitators, and the risk of violence on college campuses. The Article places contemporary events and concerns in the context of classic free speech doctrine--which binds all public colleges and universities and which many privately-run colleges voluntarily commit to respecting. It also analyzes the import of the unique mission of universities as set out in three seminal university reports on freedom of expression that emphasize intellectual freedom, “full freedom of dissent,” and the imperative of protecting views that many find deeply offensive. Using three highly publicized examples of what many regard as the transformation of colleges into political battlegrounds--events in 2017 at the University of California, Berkeley, the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia and Richard Spencer’s talk at the University of Florida--this Article provides taxonomies of how outsiders come to speak at campuses, and how they come to be disinvited or prevented from speaking, along with explanations of what the Speech Clause prohibits and permits. The Article provides constitutional and pragmatic guidance respecting best practices for balancing the need to preserve safety in the face of imminent violence (including the presence of weapons)--which requires a real, proximate risk attributable to the speaker before expression can be silenced--against the requirements of the Speech Clause and the sometimes competing imperatives of respecting dignity and equality for all members of the campus community.

State Repression and Religious Conflict: The Perils of the State Clampdown on the Shi’a Minority in Nigeria

In Nigeria, there is an increasing population of the followers of Shi’a Islam, which is largely promoted by the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) led by Sheikh Ibrahim El-Zakzaky. Given its anti-state ideology and anarchical conducts, there have been a series of clashes between the Shi’a group and the Nigerian state. Since December 2015, the government both at the national and state levels began a coercive repression of the IMN following a clash that led to the death of over 500 members of the group. This paper analyses the ongoing state repression of the Shi’a Muslims in Nigeria. It argues that the increasingly violent actions by the state against the group are a recipe for a large-scale conflict, which may assume the following dimensions: a new wave of religious terrorism (after Boko Haram), a Sunni-Shi’a conflict, and international proxy wars in Nigeria. The paper concludes that a practicable way to stem the imminent violence is for the government to establish a dialogue with the group on how to ensure its compliance with the state laws and not totally outlaw it.

Show Me Your Hands! Police and Public Perceptions of Violent Interpersonal Cues

Psychology has recently begun to examine human interpersonal social predictors of violence. One area yet unexamined is potential differences between law enforcement officers and non-police in their perception of aggressive interpersonal social cues. Using a sample of 129 police officers and 178 non-police individuals, a direct comparison was made about perceptions of interpersonal social behaviors associated with imminent violence. It was revealed that both samples generally shared similar perceptions, with a few exceptions. Police officers were more sensitive than other individuals are to each of the behavioral cues. The police sample also perceived the behavior of placing one’s hands in one’s pockets as more threatening than did the non-police sample.