Imminent Eruption Research Articles

Geological constraints on volcanic-fluid pathways at the Maruyamasawa-Fumarolic-Geothermal-Area, and its relation to the present magmatic-hydrothermal activity in Zao Volcano, Tohoku, Japan

A field survey based on outcrop and hand-dug trench observations was conducted in the Maruyamasawa-Fumarolic-Geothermal-Area (MFG) of the Zao Volcano. Powder X-ray diffraction and microscopic analyses of samples collected from the MFG provide new possible links between underground magmatic–hydrothermal activity and fumaroles in the volcanic system. The MFG is a fumarolic area (solfatara) with evidence of intense geothermal activity, such as hot and cold springs, fumaroles precipitating native sulfur, and ongoing fumarolic alteration. The MFG occurs on a talus slope that mainly comprises detritus from Late Cretaceous granitoids mixed with blocks of the ca. 1 Ma Robanomimiiwa Pyrocalstics (Rmp). The Rmp is well exposed on a cliff behind the talus slope, and it unconformably overlies the granitoids with a NW-striking, SW-dipping contact. The southwestward extension of the Rmp-granitoids unconformity is projected laying approximately 500 m below the Okama crater, which is 800–1000 masl. The mineral assemblages of the MFG altered rocks are mainly 1) cristobalite + native sulfur ± pyrite, 2) cristobalite + quartz + alunite + kaolin-group minerals + smectite, and 3) quartz-only (intensely silicified) rocks. These mineral associations indicate a typical shallow acidic environment between steam-heated and fumarolic alteration zones. Three sandy layers (Layers 1 to 3 from bottom to top) are recognized in the hand-dug trench: Layer 1 is brown, poorly sorted and well-consolidated, Layer 2 is pale gray to gray and moderately sorted, and Layer 3 is pale gray and poorly sorted. The 14C dating of a paleosol underlying Layer 3 constrains the deposition event to around 437 ± 20 yrBP (2σ: 1429–1470). The presence of gray basaltic andesite (Rmp), granitic fragments (granitoids), and altered rocks (MFG constituent) in these layers suggests detrital remobilization from the MFG talus slope by rainfall (snowmelt) that emplaced thin lahar deposits. Furthermore, the detrital cristobalite and alunite in the L1-L3 matrix are minerals of fumarolic origin contained in the MFG altered rocks. These results indicate that the fumarolic activity and alteration of the MFG occurred before the deposition of these layers.Based on this information, we propose the following model for the MFG activity: (1) The Rmp-granitoids unconformity behaves as an open pathway for ascending volcanic fluids and controls the MFG geothermal features. (2) The MFG was formed over 600 years ago, probably during early Okama crater activity at the 1200s CE. (3) Volcanic fluids have ascended through the unconformity over the last several hundred years. Therefore, careful monitoring of the MFG is crucial for detecting surface anomalies that could indicate imminent eruptions of the Zao Volcano.

Sunspot Rotation in High- and Low-Flaring Active Regions

Sunspot rotations are closely linked with flaring activity. They are thought to contribute to the accumulation of helicity in magnetic flux tubes and to triggering magnetic reconnection in large solar flares. This link to solar flares has led to sunspot rotations being used as a parameter in solar flare prediction methods, but analysis for long-period observations of rotations in the literature is scarce. In this study, the rotation profiles of sunspots in a selection of six active regions are studied over time periods of 5 – 10 days to measure how sunspot rotation varies as active regions develop. The active regions are divided into two categories: high-flaring groups, which produced at least one X-class flare, and low-flaring regions that had little flaring activity. Comparison of the rotation profiles in these regions showed that young complex sunspot groups exhibit faster angular velocities and more frequent changes in rotation than older single-spot groups and, although the most rotating groups were also the most flare-productive, sudden changes in rotation were found to not definitively indicate an imminent eruption.

More than a warning: Expanding the role of communication in Eastern Caribbean volcano science

The infrequent nature of volcanic eruptions means that civil authorities and the public may often be unfamiliar with volcanic hazards and may not be fully prepared to deal with them. Many times volcano scientists are required to help governments and citizens understand the threat posed to their lives and property when volcanoes show signs of an imminent eruption. Effectively communicating the potential impact of these events can demand time and skills that these scientists may or may not have. Further, a lack of trusted scientific information can lead to public misinformation and hamper government responses. Although several risk reduction researchers and observatory scientists have advocated for the inclusion of communication specialists in scientific teams, communication resources at many observatories remain under utilised. Using the experience of The University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (UWI-SRC), this article explores the contribution of a specialist communication team to the work of a volcano monitoring agency. The Education and Outreach (E&O) team at the UWI-SRC manages all the agency’s external communications. The team also works to raise public awareness of geological hazards in the UWI-SRC’s Eastern Caribbean region of responsibility. Within the Caribbean region, most communication research related to disaster risk up until now has focused on communication during crises. Using semi-structured interviews and document review we investigated the impact of strategic communication in a long-term, multi-hazard monitoring programme. A qualitative analysis highlighted the equal importance of crisis communication during unrest and outreach work during quiescent periods. The UWI-SRC’s communication programme has been effective in: 1) supporting scientists’ public communication 2) sustaining stakeholder engagement 3) building physical and social science capacity and 4) strengthening organisational credibility. This article examines the contribution of specialist communication to advisory volcano science throughout the disaster management cycle in the English-speaking Eastern Caribbean. It argues that significant societal value can be added to the scientific work engaged in by advisory scientists by embracing a multi-level communication strategy.

The Hiccup of Villarrica volcano (Chile) during the 2015 eruption and its expression in LP activity and VLP ground motion

SUMMARY Volcano seismology is an essential tool for monitoring volcanic processes in the advent and during eruptions. A variety of seismic signals can be recorded at volcanoes, of which some are thought to be related to the migration of fluids which is of primary importance for the anticipation of imminent eruptions. We investigate the volcanic crises at Villarrica volcano in 2015 and report on a newly discovered very-long-period (VLP) signal that accompanies phases of periodic long period (LP) signal burst. Despite their low amplitude emergent character, we can locate the source region of the 1 Hz LP signals to the close vicinity of the volcano using a network-based correlation method. The source of the VLP signal with a period of about 30–100 s appears to locate in the vicinity of two stations a few kilometres from the summit. Both stations record very similar VLP waveforms that are correlated with the envelope of the LP bursts. A shallow magma reservoir was inferred by Contreras from surface deformation as the source of inflation following the eruption in 2015. Cyclic volume changes of 6 m3 in this reservoir at 3 km depth can explain the observed amplitudes of the vertical VLP signal. We propose that the LP signal is generated by the migration of gas or gas-rich magma that is periodically released from the inflating reservoir through a non-linear valve structure which modulates the flux, and thereby causes bursts of flow-related LP signals and pressure changes observed as VLP deformation. Our model predicts that the correlated occurrence of LP bursts and VLP surface motion depends on the intensity of the fluid flux. A weaker flux of fluids may not exceed the opening pressure of valve structure, and higher rates might maintain pressure above the closing pressure. In both cases, the VLP signal vanishes. Our observation provides constrains for models of fluid transport inside volcanoes. At Villarrica the VLP signal, and its relation to the LP activity, reveal additional information about fluxes in the magmatic reservoir that might aide forecasting of volcanic activity.

Timescales of crystal mush mobilization in the Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn volcanic system based on olivine diffusion chronometry

AbstractThe timescales of magmatic processes within a volcanic system may be variable over a volcano’s geological history. Crystals reflect environmental perturbations under which they grew, and compositional gradients quenched inside crystals on eruption can be exploited to extract timescales of magmatic processes. Here, we use multi-element diffusion chronometry in olivine macrocrysts to recover their residence time in a melt that ultimately erupted at the surface. The macrocrysts were mobilized by the carrier melt from mushy layers in the magma reservoir, and diffusion timescales likely reflect the time interval between mush disaggregation, ascent, and eruption. To unravel the evolution of mush disaggregation timescales with time, we target early-Holocene, middle-Holocene, and historical magmatic units erupted in the Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn volcanic system in Iceland’s Eastern Volcanic Zone. Macrocryst contents vary between samples; early-Holocene samples are highly phyric (10–45 vol% macrocrysts) and contain gabbroic nodules, whereas middle-Holocene (5–15 vol%) and historical units (5–10 vol%) tend to be generally less phyric. Early-Holocene olivine macrocrysts have core compositions in the range Fo84–87, while middle-Holocene and historical samples record a wider range in core compositions from Fo80 to Fo86.5. Olivine rims are in chemical equilibrium with their carrier liquid and are slightly more evolved in early-Holocene units (Fo76–81) compared to middle-Holocene (Fo78–80) and historical (Fo81–83) units. Diffusion chronometry reveals that the timescale between mush dis-aggregation and eruption has changed over time, with timescales getting shorter approaching recent times. Early-Holocene olivine macrocrysts dominantly record Fe-Mg diffusion timescales between 200–400 days, while middle-Holocene and historical units typically record timescales of about 70 and 60 days, respectively. Barometric studies suggest that melts and crystals are likely stored and gradually transferred throughout an interconnected multi-tiered system that ultimately culminates in a mid-crustal reservoir(s) at about 6.8–7.5 ± 2.5 km depth, where final disaggregation by the carrier liquid took place. We argue that, as a result of extensional processes enhanced by rifting events, well-mixed melts got drawn into mid-crustal reservoir(s), causing crystal mush loosening and mobilization. In addition, we propose that more energy in the form of heat and/or melt supply was required in the early-Holocene to break up the dense mush fabric and convert it into an eruptible magma. Conversely, as evidenced by the diverse macrocryst content of the historical units and by the lack of gabbroic nodules, the system has become characterized by a less compact mush fabric since at least the middle-Holocene, such that fresh injection of melt would easily loosen and mobilize the mush, resulting in an eruption within a couple of months. This study provides evidence that along axial rift settings, rifting-related processes can help to “pull the mush apart” with no requirement for primitive magma injection as an eruption trigger. Furthermore, we provide evidence that in the Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn volcanic system specifically, the time between mush disaggregation and eruption has decreased considerably with time, indicating shorter warning times before imminent eruptions.

CO2 favours the accumulation of excess fluids in felsic magmas

AbstractDeformation and gas emissions at active volcanoes provide insights into volcanic plumbing systems. Large discrepancies are observed between the volumes calculated from deformation data and the volumes of erupted magmas and are ascribed to the amount of excess fluids in magma reservoirs, which hinders our capacity to predict the magnitude of an imminent eruption. Here, a series of experiments demonstrates that the amount of trapped excess fluids in felsic magmas depends strongly on fluid composition. Magmas with CO2 excess fluids become permeable at 44% larger porosities with respect to the H2O‐rich counterparts at equivalent crystallinity. Available excess gas geochemistry and juvenile porosity data from felsic systems reveal that the volume discrepancy between erupted magma and syn‐eruptive SO2 increases with CO2 excess in magmas. These data highlight that CO2‐rich fluids enhance magma's capacity to store excess volatiles and shed light on the largest discrepancies between pre‐eruptive deformation and eruption intensity and magnitude.

The potential of satellite remote sensing for monitoring the onset of volcanic activity on Taipei’s doorstep

ABSTRACTThe Tatun Volcanic Group (TVG) in northern Taiwan is the sole volcanic region on the island, with its last eruptive episode around 5,500 years ago. It has been suggested that the TVG retains the capacity for volcanic explosivity which has the potential to devastate the nearby Taipei metropolitan area of 7 million inhabitants. Though the probability of future eruption is low by probabilistic estimation, the vulnerability to volcanic hazards is high for Taipei given that it is the centre of population, industry, and government for the island. An assessment of any activity precursors is thus vital but also particularly challenging. Here, we perform an eruption-potential assessment based on the analysis of a sixteen-year Land Surface Temperature (LST) time series of data derived from satellite-retrieved thermal imagery. A Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) is applied to decompose oscillatory components of various timescales within the LST time series. The annual-period components are compared with those from two active volcanoes in the Philippines to assess the potential of eruption cycles in the TVG. Results from the Philippine volcanoes show that annual-period components of LST tend to lose their regularity following an eruption. By contrast, the regular annual period component of LST of the TVG Taiwan suggests a quiet and resting status with no sign of an imminent eruption.

Evaluating life-safety risk for fieldwork on active volcanoes: the volcano life risk estimator (VoLREst), a volcano observatory\u2019s decision-support tool

When is it safe, or at least, not unreasonably risky, to undertake fieldwork on active volcanoes? Volcano observatories must balance the safety of staff against the value of collecting field data and/or manual instrument installation, maintenance, and repair. At times of volcanic unrest this can present a particular dilemma, as both the value of fieldwork (which might help save lives or prevent unnecessary evacuation) and the risk to staff in the field may be high. Despite the increasing coverage and scope of remote monitoring methods, in-person fieldwork is still required for comprehensive volcano monitoring, and can be particularly valuable at times of volcanic unrest. A volcano observatory has a moral and legal duty to minimise occupational risk for its staff, but must do this in a way that balances against this its duty to provide the best possible information in support of difficult decisions on community safety.To assist with consistent and objective decision-making regarding whether to undertake fieldwork on active volcanoes, we present the Volcano Life Risk Estimator (VoLREst). We developed VoLREst to quantitatively evaluate life-safety risk to GNS Science staff undertaking fieldwork on volcanoes in unrest where the primary concerns are volcanic hazards from an eruption with no useful short-term precursory activity that would indicate an imminent eruption. The hazards considered are ballistics, pyroclastic density currents, and near-vent processes. VoLREst quantifies the likelihood of exposure to volcanic hazards at various distances from the vent for small, moderate, or large eruptions. This, combined with the estimate of the chance of a fatality given exposure to a volcanic hazard, provides VoLREst’s final output: quantification of the hourly risk of a fatality for an individual at various distances from the volcanic vent.At GNS Science, the calculated levels of life-safety risk trigger different levels of managerial approval required to undertake fieldwork. Although an element of risk will always be present when conducting fieldwork on potentially active volcanoes, this is a first step towards providing objective and reproducible guidance for go/no go decisions for access to undertake volcano monitoring.

Oral rehabilitation in mixed dentition: the challenge of replacing permanent teeth

Aim: To present the report of a female patient, 10 years old, referred for treatment in the Dentistry Clinic of a Brazilian public university.Case report: The patient's oral health condition was unfavorable with biofilm accumulation, pain report and chewing difficulty. After anamnesis, clinical and radiographic examination, the treatment plan included removal of infectious foci (54, 55, 64, 65, 74, 75, 85, 16, 36 and 46) followed by prosthetic rehabilitation. At this stage, the functional restoration of the lower arch was restricted by the imminent eruption of the premolars. In the upper arch, the maintenance of the mesio-distal diameters aims to guarantee the chronological sequence of successors irruption and establishment of normal occlusion. During the monthly follow-up consultations the patient presents a more spontaneous smile, although she still needs constant reinforcement in oral hygiene habits.Conclusions: The rehabilitation of patients with loss of permanent teeth during the mixed dentition phase should consider the peculiarities of this period for the restoration of health without altering the normal pattern of occlusal development.

Magnetotelluric imaging of the resurgent caldera on the island of Ischia (southern Italy): inferences for its structure and activity

The island of Ischia (located in the Bay of Naples, Italy) represents a peculiar case of a well-exposed caldera that has experienced a large (>800 m) and rapid resurgence, accompanied by volcanic activity. What drives the resurgence of calderas is a crucial issue to investigate, because this process is associated with potential eruptions and high risk to people living within and around such large active volcanic systems. To improve the knowledge of volcano-tectonic processes affecting the caldera of Ischia, electromagnetic imaging of the structures associated with its resurgence was performed and integrated with available geological information. A magnetotelluric (MT) survey of the island was carried out along two main profiles through the central-western sector, providing an electrical resistivity map to a depth of 3 km. These resistivity cross sections allowed us to identify the presence of a very shallow magmatic intrusion, possibly a laccolith, at a depth of about 1 km, which was responsible for both the resurgence and the volcanic activity. Furthermore, the tectonic structures bordering the resurgent area and the occurrence of a large thermal anomaly in the western sector of the caldera also provided a signature in the resistivity cross sections, with the magma intrusion producing advection of hot fluids with high geothermal gradients (>150 °C km−1) in the southern and western sectors. All of these data are fundamental for the assessment of the island’s volcano-tectonic dynamics and their associated hazards. The structure and activity of the island have been controlled by the process of resurgence associated with the arrival of new magma and the progressive intrusion of a laccolith at a shallow depth. The reactivation of such a shallow system may imply imminent eruption which would pose a major volcanic hazard.

Volcanic fumes warn of imminent eruptions

Volcanic fumes warn of imminent eruptions

Warm storage for arc magmas

Felsic magmatic systems represent the vast majority of volcanic activity that poses a threat to human life. The tempo and magnitude of these eruptions depends on the physical conditions under which magmas are retained within the crust. Recently the case has been made that volcanic reservoirs are rarely molten and only capable of eruption for durations as brief as 1,000 years following magma recharge. If the "cold storage" model is generally applicable, then geophysical detection of melt beneath volcanoes is likely a sign of imminent eruption. However, some arc volcanic centers have been active for tens of thousands of years and show evidence for the continual presence of melt. To address this seeming paradox, zircon geochronology and geochemistry from both the frozen lava and the cogenetic enclaves they host from the Soufrière Volcanic Center (SVC), a long-lived volcanic complex in the Lesser Antilles arc, were integrated to track the preeruptive thermal and chemical history of the magma reservoir. Our results show that the SVC reservoir was likely eruptible for periods of several tens of thousands of years or more with punctuated eruptions during these periods. These conclusions are consistent with results from other arc volcanic reservoirs and suggest that arc magmas are generally stored warm. Thus, the presence of intracrustal melt alone is insufficient as an indicator of imminent eruption, but instead represents the normal state of magma storage underneath dormant volcanoes.

Deformation regime and long-term precursors to eruption at large calderas: Rabaul, Papua New Guinea

Eruptions at large calderas are normally preceded by variable rates of unrest that continue for decades or more. A classic example is the 1994 eruption of Rabaul caldera, in Papua New Guinea, which began after 23 years of surface uplift and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity at rates that changed unevenly with time by an order of magnitude. Although the VT event rate and uplift rate peaked in 1983–1985, eruptions only began a decade later and followed just 27 hours of anomalous changes in precursory signal. Here we argue that the entire 23 years of unrest belongs to a single sequence of damage accumulation in the crust and that, in 1991–1992, the crust's response to applied stress changed from quasi-elastic (elastic deformation with minor fault movement) to inelastic (deformation predominantly by fault movement alone). The change in behaviour yields limiting trends in the variation of VT event rate with deformation and can be quantified with a mean-field model for an elastic crust that contains a dispersed population of small faults. The results show that identifying the deformation regime for elastic–brittle crust provides new criteria for using precursory time series to evaluate the potential for eruption. They suggest that, in the quasi-elastic regime, short-term increases in rates of deformation and VT events are unreliable indicators of an imminent eruption, but that, in the inelastic regime, the precursory rates may follow hyperbolic increases with time and offer the promise of developing forecasts of eruption as much as months beforehand.

Probabilistic short‐term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

AbstractDuring volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short‐term volcanic hazard), for short‐term near‐real‐time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short‐term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short‐term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.

Uplift of Kelud Volcano Prior to the November 2007 Eruption as Observed by L-Band Insar

Kelud volcano, a stratovolcano with summit elevation of 1731 m above sea level, is considered to be one of the most dangerous volcanoes in Java, Indonesia. Kelud volcano erupts frequently, with the most recent eruption occurred on November 3, 2007. Therefore, volcano monitoring, especially detecting precursory signals prior to an eruption, is important for hazard mitigation for Kelud volcano. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) has been proven to bea powerful tool for investigating earth-surface deformation. Hence, we applied D-InSAR (differential InSAR) in an effort to identify pre-eruptive deformation of Kelud volcano before November 2007 eruption. SAR images, L band ALOS-PALSAR, were used to construct 3 coherent interferograms between January to May 2007. We used the D-InSAR technique to remove topographic effects from interferometry images. During the interval observation, we detected a continuous inflation with a maximum line-of-sight (LOS) displacement of 11cm. Uplift of Kelud volcano was also observed by the tiltmeter 1-2 months prior to the November 2007 eruption. We interpret this inflation as a manifestation of increased volume of magmatic material in the shallow reservoir and magmatic migration towards the surface, indicating an imminent eruption. This study confirms that InSAR technique is a valuable tool for monitoring volcano towards better hazard mitigations.

Rapid remobilization of magmatic crystals kept in cold storage

The processes involved in the formation and storage of magma within the Earth's upper crust are of fundamental importance to volcanology. Many volcanic eruptions, including some of the largest, result from the eruption of components stored for tens to hundreds of thousands of years before eruption. Although the physical conditions of magma storage and remobilization are of paramount importance for understanding volcanic processes, they remain relatively poorly known. Eruptions of crystal-rich magma are often suggested to require the mobilization of magma stored at near-solidus conditions; however, accumulation of significant eruptible magma volumes has also been argued to require extended storage of magma at higher temperatures. What has been lacking in this debate is clear observational evidence linking the thermal (and therefore physical) conditions within a magma reservoir to timescales of storage-that is, thermal histories. Here we present a method of constraining such thermal histories by combining timescales derived from uranium-series disequilibria, crystal sizes and trace-element zoning in crystals. At Mount Hood (Oregon, USA), only a small fraction of the total magma storage duration (at most 12 per cent and probably much less than 1 per cent) has been spent at temperatures above the critical crystallinity (40-50 per cent) at which magma is easily mobilized. Partial data sets for other volcanoes also suggest that similar conditions of magma storage are widespread and therefore that rapid mobilization of magmas stored at near-solidus temperatures is common. Magma storage at low temperatures indicates that, although thermobarometry calculations based on mineral compositions may record the conditions of crystallization, they are unlikely to reflect the conditions of most of the time that the magma is stored. Our results also suggest that largely liquid magma bodies that can be imaged geophysically will be ephemeral features and therefore their detection could indicate imminent eruption.

Detection of Seismic Signals from Background Noise in the Area of Campi Flegrei: Limits of the Present Seismic Monitoring

Online Material: Table of seismic station location and seismometer type. Seismic monitoring of active volcanoes is necessary for detecting changes in background volcano dynamics to put in evidence possible precursors of an imminent eruption. Unfortunately, there is no clear relationship between the energy of precursory signals and the strength of subsequent volcanic activity. For example, swarms of small and shallow volcano‐tectonic (VT) or long‐period (LP) quakes (for the usual current classification, see Chouet, 2003) or volcanic tremor episodes may be the only seismic precursor of important phreatic activity (see Barberi et al. , 1992; Nakada and Shimizu, 1999). In case of high noise level, these signals may be thus partly or totally masked, making impossible the detection of these precursors. Accurate monitoring procedures should take into account the minimum magnitude detection threshold characteristics of the operating seismic network. In other words, the minimum event energy that can be detected in a given area should be considered as one of the important parameters to measure to test the real capacity of detecting a warning. This is particularly crucial in risky areas, such as Campi Flegrei, which is so densely populated to be considered as one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. Campi Flegrei is characterized by very high background seismic noise, and the knowledge of the minimum detectable magnitude is therefore crucial in this area (Petrosino et al. , 2008). For this reason, one of the purposes of the recent research project named UNREST, funded by the Civil Defense of Italy, was to achieve this objective and give useful constraints to the future improvements of the permanent seismic network, which operates in the Campi Flegrei area for volcano monitoring purposes. In the present paper, we will describe the field survey (Fig. 1) and the data analysis of an experiment carried …

Precursors to dyke-fed eruptions at basaltic volcanoes: insights from patterns of volcano-tectonic seismicity at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

To investigate the physical controls on volcano-tectonic (VT) precursors to eruptions and intrusions at basaltic volcanoes, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of VT earthquakes associated with 34 eruptions and 23 dyke intrusions that occurred between 1960 and 1983 at Kilauea, in Hawaii. Eighteen of the 57 magmatic events were preceded by an acceleration of the mean rate of VT earthquakes located close to the main shallow magma reservoir. Using a maximum-likelihood technique and the Bayesian Information Criterion for model preference, we demonstrate that an exponential acceleration is preferred over a power-law acceleration for all sequences. These sequences evolve over time-scales of weeks to months and are consistent with theoretical models for the approach to volcanic eruptions based on the growth of a population of fractures in response to an excess magma pressure. Among the remaining 40 magmatic events, we found a significant correlation between swarms of VT earthquakes located in the mobile south-flank of Kilauea and eruptions and intrusions. The behaviour of these swarms suggests that at least some of the magmatic events are triggered by transient episodes of elevated rates of aseismic flank movement, which could explain why many eruptions and intrusions are not preceded by longer-term precursory signals. In none of the 57 cases could a precursory sequence be used to distinguish between the approach to an eruption or an intrusion, so that, even when a precursory sequence is recognized, there remains an empirical chance of about 40% (24 intrusions from 57 magmatic events) of issuing a false alarm for an imminent eruption.

Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy

Forecasting the time, nature, and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, in Italy, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Nonetheless, the identification and quantification of areas at risk from new eruptions are fundamental for mitigating potential human casualties and material damage. Here, we present new results from the application of a methodology to define flexible high‐resolution lava invasion susceptibility maps based on a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows at Etna and on a validation procedure for assessing the correctness of susceptibility mapping in the study area. Furthermore, specific scenarios can be extracted at any time from the simulation database, for land use and civil defense planning in the long term, to quantify, in real time, the impact of an imminent eruption, and to assess the efficiency of protective measures.

People living under threat of volcanic hazard in southern Iceland: vulnerability and risk perception

Abstract. Residents in the village of Vík and in the farming community of Álftaver in southern Iceland are living with the threat of volcanic hazards. The highly active subglacial volcano Katla has erupted approximately twice per century since the beginning of settlement around 874 AD. The last major eruption was in 1918 and Katla has recently entered an agitated stage. The purpose of this research was to (1) review residents' responses in relation to vulnerability, (2) examine their risk perception, preparedness and mitigation in relation to an eruption of Katla, and (3) investigate the public and the representative of the local authorities and emergency manager's knowledge of the official evacuation plan. In 2004, we conducted in-depth, face-to-face interviews with local residents using a snowball sample technique. All participants were permanent residents of the two communities, between the ages of 25–95 and most had lived in the area their entire lives. Regardless of the residents' knowledge about past volcanic activity of Katla and the associated future risk, many residents were doubtful about the imminent eruption forecast by scientists and they believed that the volcano is no longer active. In both communities, different social, cultural and economic factors played a central role in how people perceived natural hazards and how they dealt with the fact that their lives and livelihoods could be at risk. The participants had good knowledge about the existing evacuation plan and had participated in evacuation exercises. However, they had not made personal mitigation or preparedness plans in the event of a future eruption. In contrast to the residents of Vík, the inhabitants in Álftaver are concerned about the evacuation process and found it very confusing; they neither found the emergency plan nor the proposed methods for risk communication relevant for their farming community. The perception of the inhabitants, especially in Álftaver, does not correspond to those tasked with the responsibility of developing the emergency and evacuation plans. In order to ensure the safety of all concerned, better cooperation, mutual understanding and adequate communication between the scientific community, governmental and local authorities and the inhabitants is necessary.