Purpose: To develop a comprehensive Monte Carlo-based model for the acquisition of scatter images of patient anatomy in real-time, during lung SBRT treatment. Methods: During SBRT treatment, images of patient anatomy can be acquired from scattered radiation. To rigorously examine the utility of scatter images for image guidance, a model is developed using MCNP code to simulate scatter images of phantoms and lung cancer patients. The model is validated by comparing experimental and simulated images of phantoms of different complexity. The differentiation between tissue types is investigated by imaging objects of known compositions (water, lung, and bone equivalent). A lung tumor phantom, simulating materials and geometry encountered during lung SBRT treatments, is used to investigate image noise properties for various quantities of delivered radiation (monitor units(MU)). Patient scatter images are simulated using the validated simulation model. 4DCT patient data is converted to an MCNP input geometry accounting for different tissue composition and densities. Lung tumor phantom images acquired with decreasing imaging time (decreasing MU) are used to model the expected noise amplitude in patient scatter images, producing realistic simulated patient scatter images with varying temporal resolution. Results: Image intensity in simulated and experimental scatter images of tissue equivalent objects (water, lung, bone) match within the uncertainty (∼3%). Lung tumor phantom images agree as well. Specifically, tumor-to-lung contrast matches within the uncertainty. The addition of random noise approximating quantum noise in experimental images to simulated patient images shows that scatter images of lung tumors can provide images in as fast as 0.5 seconds with CNR∼2.7. Conclusions: A scatter imaging simulation model is developed and validated using experimental phantom scatter images. Following validation, lung cancer patient scatter images are simulated. These simulated patient images demonstrate the clinical utility of scatter imaging for real-time tumor tracking during lung SBRT.