Ice Thinning Rates Research Articles

High-resolution monitoring of debris-covered glacier mass budget and flow velocity using repeated UAV photogrammetry in Iran

Iran's glaciers are commonly debris-covered. Due to climate changes, the frequency of glacial hazards such as glacial lake outbursts floods is increasing, and consequently, the mass of Iran's glaciers is decreasing. Fieldwork in high-altitude mountains is difficult, thus, the dynamics of debris–covered glaciers and their associated driving factors are poorly studied. In this study, changes in the elevation and the surface flow speed of the largest and most dynamic debris-covered glacier in Iran (Alamkouh glacier) are evaluated during 2018 to 2020 for the first time. For this purpose, images from a high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) are used. Additionally, the spatial distribution of glacier ice thickness is estimated based on the principles of ice-flow and glacier surface velocity data. The distribution of ice thickness is evaluated with in-situ Ground Penetration Radar (GPR) data. The acquired high-resolution images from UAV are processed into a digital elevation model (with a spatial resolution of about 15 cm) and orthoimages (with a spatial resolution of about 8 cm), and glacier ice thickness change and surface flow velocity are derived. In order to estimate glacier surface velocity, a frequency cross-correlation model was applied using the COSI-Corr module. Our results show that the mean glacier ice thinning during the study period 2018–2020 is about −0.23 ± 0.03 m yr−1 and it reaches about −5 ± 0.65 m yr−1 at the terminus and accumulation areas. The observed variations in ice thinning are best explained by the existence of debris cover (and their corresponding insulating effects), the existence of ice cliffs, and their associated supraglacial lakes. We found that ice cliffs and supraglacial lakes show mass losses that can be an order of magnitude higher than average. Moreover, the mean surface velocity of Alamkouh glacier is about 1.1 ± 0.06 m yr−1 from 2018 to 2020 with considerable spatial variation in surface velocities. The maximum surface velocity (about 4.5 ± 0.27 m yr−1) belongs to its upper regions, and lower and marginal areas are nearly stagnant. The slow movement of the glacier, along with a continuous increase in debris and ice thinning, provides a suitable condition for supraglacial pond development, which decreases glacier mass. Total volume of glacier was estimated to be ~102 × 106 m3 in 2020, corresponding to an average ice thickness of ~31.3 ± 7.5 m. Moreover, the average ice thinning rate is 0.66% yr−1 in 2018 to 2020. According to this reduction rate, it is expected that more than 51.7% of the glacier will be lost by the end of the 21st century.

A near 90-year record of the evolution of El Morado Glacier and its proglacial lake, Central Chilean Andes

AbstractUsing an ensemble of close- and long-range remote sensing, lake bathymetry and regional meteorological data, we present a detailed assessment of the geometric changes of El Morado Glacier in the Central Andes of Chile and its adjacent proglacial lake between 1932 and 2019. Overall, the results revealed a period of marked glacier down wasting, with a mean geodetic glacier mass balance of −0.39 ± 0.15 m w.e.a−1observed for the entire glacier between 1955 and 2015 with an area loss of 40% between 1955 and 2019. We estimate an ice elevation change of −1.00 ± 0.17 m a−1for the glacier tongue between 1932 and 2019. The increase in the ice thinning rates and area loss during the last decade is coincident with the severe drought in this region (2010–present), which our minimal surface mass-balance model is able to reproduce. As a result of the glacier changes observed, the proglacial lake increased in area substantially between 1955 and 2019, with bathymetry data suggesting a water volume of 3.6 million m3in 2017. This study highlights the need for further monitoring of glacierised areas in the Central Andes. Such efforts would facilitate a better understanding of the downstream impacts of glacier downwasting.

60 Years of Glacier Elevation and Mass Changes in the Maipo River Basin, Central Andes of Chile

Glaciers in the central Andes of Chile are fundamental freshwater sources for ecosystems and communities. Overall, glaciers in this region have shown continuous recession and down-wasting, but long-term glacier mass balance studies providing precise estimates of these changes are scarce. Here, we present the first long-term (1955–2013/2015), region-specific glacier elevation and mass change estimates for the Maipo River Basin, from which the densely populated metropolitan region of Chile obtains most of its freshwater supply. We calculated glacier elevation and mass changes using historical topographic maps, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurements (TanDEM-X), and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models. The results indicated a mean regional glacier mass balance of −0.12 ± 0.06 m w.e.a−1, with a total mass loss of 2.43 ± 0.26 Gt for the Maipo River Basin between 1955–2013. The most negative glacier mass balance was the Olivares sub-basin, with a mean value of −0.29 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1. We observed spatially heterogeneous glacier elevation and mass changes between 1955 and 2000, and more negative values between 2000 and 2013, with an acceleration in ice thinning rates starting in 2010, which coincides with the severe drought. Our results provide key information to improve glaciological and hydrological projections in a region where water resources are under pressure.

Recent dynamic changes on Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract. The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the world's regions most affected by climate change. Several ice shelves have retreated, thinned or completely disintegrated during recent decades, leading to acceleration and increased calving of their tributary glaciers. Wordie Ice Shelf, located in Marguerite Bay at the south-western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, completely disintegrated in a series of events between the 1960s and the late 1990s. We investigate the long-term dynamics (1994–2016) of Fleming Glacier after the disintegration of Wordie Ice Shelf by analysing various multi-sensor remote sensing data sets. We present a dense time series of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) surface velocities that reveals a rapid acceleration of Fleming Glacier in 2008 and a phase of further gradual acceleration and upstream propagation of high velocities in 2010–2011.The timing in acceleration correlates with strong upwelling events of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW) into Wordie Bay, most likely leading to increased submarine melt. This, together with continuous dynamic thinning and a deep subglacial trough with a retrograde bed slope close to the terminus probably, has induced unpinning of the glacier tongue in 2008 and gradual grounding line retreat between 2010 and 2011. Our data suggest that the glacier's grounding line had retreated by ∼ 6–9 km between 1996 and 2011, which caused ∼ 56 km2 of the glacier tongue to go afloat. The resulting reduction in buttressing explains a median speedup of ∼ 1.3 m d−1 (∼ 27 %) between 2008 and 2011, which we observed along a centre line extending between the grounding line in 1996 and ∼ 16 km upstream. Current median ice thinning rates (2011–2014) along profiles in areas below 1000 m altitude range between ∼ 2.6 to 3.2 m a−1 and are ∼ 70 % higher than between 2004 and 2008. Our study shows that Fleming Glacier is far away from approaching a new equilibrium and that the glacier dynamics are not primarily controlled by the loss of the former ice shelf anymore. Currently, the tongue of Fleming Glacier is grounded in a zone of bedrock elevation between ∼ −400 and −500 m. However, about 3–4 km upstream modelled bedrock topography indicates a retrograde bed which transitions into a deep trough of up to ∼ −1100 m at ∼ 10 km upstream. Hence, this endangers upstream ice masses, which can significantly increase the contribution of Fleming Glacier to sea level rise in the future.

Ice and Snow Thickness Variability and Change in the High Arctic Ocean Observed by In Situ Measurements

AbstractIn April 2017, we collected unique, extensive in situ data of sea ice and snow thickness. At 10 sampling sites, located under a CryoSat‐2 overpass, between Ellesmere Island and 87.1°N mean and modal total ice thicknesses ranged between 2 to 3.4 m and 1.8 to 2.9 m, respectively. Coincident snow thicknesses ranged between 0.3 to 0.47 m (mean) and 0.1 to 0.5 m (mode). The profile spanned the complete multiyear ice zone in the Lincoln Sea, into the first‐year ice zone farther north. Complementary snow thickness measurements near the North Pole showed a mean thickness of 0.31 m. Compared with scarce measurements from other years, multiyear ice was up to 0.75 m thinner than in 2004, but not significantly different from 2011 and 2014. We found excellent agreement with a commonly used snow climatology and with published long‐term ice thinning rates. There was reasonable agreement with CryoSat‐2 thickness retrievals.

Ice loss processes in the Seal Nunataks ice shelf region from satellite altimetry and imagery

ABSTRACTThe Seal Nunataks ice shelf (SNIS, ~743 km2 in 2013) is an unofficial name for a remnant area between the former Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves off the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula. Analyses using Landsat 7 ETM+ and Terra ASTER images from 2001 to 13 and ICESat altimetry from 2003 to 09 show it has retreated and thinned following the Larsen A (1995) and Larsen B (2002) disintegrations. Despite some regional cooling and more fast ice since 2008, SNIS continues to lose ice along its margins and may be losing contact with some nunataks. Detailed analysis of data from four ICESat tracks indicates that ice shelf thinning rates range between 1.9 and 2.7 m a−1, and generally increase from west to east. An ICESat repeat track crossing the adjacent Robertson Island shows a mean elevation loss of 1.8 m a−1. Two tracks crossing the SNIS's remaining tributary, Rogosh Glacier, show sub-meter elevation losses. Comparing shelf remnant and grounded ice thinning rates implies that basal ocean melting augments SNIS thinning by ~1 m a−1, a rate that is consistent with other estimates of ocean-driven shelf thinning in the region.

Recent changes in total ice volume on Volcán Villarrica, Southern Chile

Results obtained by the first intensive airborne surveys carried out at Volcan Villarrica (39°S) in Southern Chile, are presented. These campaigns included the use of a scanner laser system, for detecting the glacier surface topography, and a helicopter-borne ice penetrating radar, for measuring ice thicknesses. These surveys allowed determining the snow and ice volume storage at this volcano, volume which is susceptible to melt during eruptive events generating dangerous fast flows (lahars). Volcan Villarrica is one of the most active volcanoes in Chile, with frequent eruptive events, many of them associated with lahars which are considered the most hazardous process at this volcano. In fact, most of the casualties and infrastructure damages incurred during historical eruptive events at the volcano are associated with lahars. With use of the radar and laser data, a total volume of 1.17 ± 0.1 km3 of water equivalent (w.eq.) at the volcano in 2012 was calculated, only 37 % of the estimated volume of 1961, a reduction mainly explained by the area shrinkage and ice thinning rates observed in the last 51 years. This total volume represents a lower boundary available for melting during eruptive events when lahars mudflows can be generated, because mainly in the winter, nearly 0.14 km3 w.eq. are potentially added to the volcano as temporal snow falls. The volume of water equivalent lost in recent decades does not mean a lower risk associated with these flows, as there has been a huge increase in populated areas in the surroundings of the volcano in recent years.

Relative contribution of surface mass-balance and ice-flux changes to the accelerated thinning of Mer de Glace, French Alps, over1979-2008

AbstractBy subtracting surface topographies from 1979, 1994, 2000 and 2008, we measured icethinning rates increasing from 1 ma-1 (1979-94) to >4 ma-1 (2000-08) on the tongue of Mer de Glace, French Alps. The relative contributions of changes in surface mass balance and ice fluxes to this acceleration in the thinning are estimated using field and remote-sensing measurements. Between 1979-94 and 2000-08, surface mass balance diminished by 1.2mw.e.a-1, mainly because of atmospheric warming. Mass-balance changes induced by the growing debris-covered area and the evolving glacier hypsometry compensated each other. Meanwhile, Mer de Glace slowed down and the ice fluxes through two cross sections at 2200 and 2050ma.s.l. decreased by 60%. Between 1979-94 and 2000-08, two-thirds of the increase in the thinning rates was caused by reduced ice fluxes and one- third by rising surface ablation. However, these numbers need to be interpreted cautiously given our inability to respect mass conservation below our upper cross section. An important implication is that large errors would occur if one term of the continuity equation (e.g. surface mass balance) were deduced from the two others (e.g. elevation and ice-flux changes).

Changes in glacier dynamics under the influence of proglacial lake formation in Rhonegletscher, Switzerland

AbstarctTo investigate the impact of proglacial lake formation on the dynamics and evolution of glaciers, we measured the ice motion of the terminal part of Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, where a lake formed in 2005. In 2009, the flow velocity near the terminus was >20 m a−1. One of the survey stakes tripled its velocity between 2006 and 2007. Since the lake water pressure was consistently close to the ice overburden pressure, it is likely that the high subglacial water pressure enhanced the basal ice motion. The estimated flow velocity due to ice shearing was negligibly small; almost 100% of the horizontal velocity near the terminus was caused by basal sliding. The longitudinal strain rate was large, 0.064 a–1, indicating that much of the glacier thinning was due to ice dynamics. The region of ice flotation adjacent to the lake expanded between 2008 and 2009 as a result of glacier thinning. Accordingly, a huge uplift of the surface was observed in 2009. It is clear from the vertical ice motion as well as visual observations that the marginal part of the glacier began to float. The ice-thinning rate in the studied area from 2008 to 2009 was 3.4 ma–1, larger than previous estimates.

Ice wastage on the Kerguelen Islands (49°S, 69°E) between 1963 and 2006

We observed the wastage of ice masses on the Kerguelen Islands (Indian Ocean, 49°S, 69°E) using historical information and recent satellite data. Overall, the total ice‐covered area on the islands declined from 703 to 552 km2 between 1963 and 2001, a reduction of 21%. The area of Cook ice cap (the main ice body) decreased asymmetrically from 501 to 403 km2. West flowing glaciers lost 11% of their area, while east flowing glaciers lost 28%. After 1991, the retreat rate accelerated from 1.9 km2/a (1963–1991) to 3.8 km2/a (1991–2003). Between 1963 and 2000, the ice volume loss was 25–30 km3, equivalent to an area‐average ice‐thinning rate of 1.4–1.7 m/a. The glacial retreat took place in the climatic context of a relatively low level of precipitation (compared to the 1950s) and a ∼1°C warming that occurred between 1964 and 1982. The acceleration of the ice losses since at least the 1990s indicates that the state of the ice bodies on the Kerguelen Islands is still far from balanced. Together with other studies in Patagonia, South Georgia, and Heard Island, our analysis is consistent with a pattern of strong and accelerated wastage of ice masses influenced by the Southern Ocean.

Calving and ice-shelf break-up processes investigated by proxy: Antarctic tabular iceberg evolution during northward drift

AbstractUsing a combination of satellite sensors, field measurements and satellite-uplinked in situ observing stations, we examine the evolution of several large icebergs drifting east of the Antarctic Peninsula towards South Georgia Island. Three styles of calving are observed during drift: ‘rift calvings’, ‘edge wasting’ and ‘rapid disintegration’. Rift calvings exploit large pre-existing fractures generated in the shelf environment and can occur at any stage of drift. Edge wasting is calving of the iceberg perimeter by numerous small edge-parallel, sliver-shaped icebergs, preserving the general shape of the main iceberg as it shrinks. This process is observed only in areas north of the sea-ice edge. Rapid disintegration, where numerous small calvings occur in rapid succession, is consistently associated with indications of surface melt saturation (surface lakes, firn-pit ponding). Freeboard measurements by ICESat indicate substantial increases in ice-thinning rates north of the sea-ice edge (from <10 m a−1 to >30 m a−1), but surface densification is shown to be an important correction (>2 m freeboard loss before the firn saturates). Edge wasting of icebergs in ‘warm’ surface water (sea-ice-free, >−1.8°C) implies a mechanism based on waterline erosion. Rapid disintegration (‘Larsen B-style’ break-up) is likely due to the effects of surface or saturated-firn water acting on pre-existing crevasses, or on wave- or tidally induced fractures. Changes in microwave backscatter of iceberg firn as icebergs drift into warmer climate and experience increased surface melt suggest a means of predicting when floating ice plates are evolving towards disintegration.

A comparison of Greenland ice-sheet volume changes derived from altimetry measurements

AbstractWe compare rates of surface-elevation change on the Greenland ice sheet derived from European Remote-sensing Satellite-2 (ERS-2) radar-altimeter data with those obtained from laser-altimeter data collected over nearly the same time periods. Radar-altimeter data show more rapid thickening (9 ± 1 cm a−1 above 1500 m elevation in the north, and 3 ± 1 cm a−1 above 2000 m in the south) than the laser estimates, possibly caused by a lifting of the radar-reflection horizon associated with changes in the snowpack, such as those caused by progressively increased surface melting, as summer temperatures rise. Over all the ice sheet above 2000 m, this results in an ERS-derived volume balance ∼75 ± 15 km3 a−1 more positive than that from laser data. This bias between laser and radar estimates of elevation change varies spatially and temporally, so cannot at present be corrected without independent surveys such as those presented here. At lower elevations, comparison of detailed repeat laser surveys over Jakobshavn Isbræ with ERS results over the same time interval shows substantial ERS underestimation of ice-thinning rates. This results partly from missing data because of ‘bad’ radar waveforms over the very rough surface topography, and partly from the tendency for large radar footprints to sample preferentially local high points in the topography, thus missing regions of most rapid thinning along glacier depressions.

Ice volumetric changes on active volcanoes in southern Chile

AbstractMost of the glaciers in southern Chile have been retreating and shrinking during recent decades in response to atmospheric warming and decrease in precipitation. However, some glacier fluctuations are directly associated with the effusive and geothermal activity of ice-covered active volcanoes widely distributed in the region. The aim of this paper is to study the ice volumetric changes by comparing several topographic datasets. A maximum mean ice thinning rate of 0.81 ± 0.45 m a−1 was observed on the ash/debris-covered ablation area of Volcan Villarrica between 1961 and 2004, whilst on Volcan Mocho the signal-to-noise ratio was too small to yield any conclusion. An area reduction of 0.036 ±0.019 km2 a−1 since 1976 was obtained on Glaciar Mocho, while on Volcan Villarrica the area change was −0.090 ± 0.034 km2 a−1 between 1976 and 2005. Glaciers on active volcanoes are therefore shrinking, mainly in response to climatic driving factors. However, volcanic activity is affecting glaciers in two opposite ways: ash/debris advection is helping to reduce surface ablation at lower reaches by insulating the ice from solar radiation, while geothermal activity is probably enhancing melting and water production at the bedrock, resulting in negative ice-elevation changes.

Contribution of the Patagonia Icefields of South America to sea level rise.

Digital elevation models of the Northern and Southern Patagonia Icefields of South America generated from the 2000 Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were compared with earlier cartography to estimate the volume change of the largest 63 glaciers. During the period 1968/1975-2000, these glaciers lost ice at a rate equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.042 +/- 0.002 millimeters per year. In the more recent years 1995-2000, average ice thinning rates have more than doubled to an equivalent sea level rise of 0.105 +/- 0.011 millimeters per year. The glaciers are thinning more quickly than can be explained by warmer air temperatures and decreased precipitation, and their contribution to sea level per unit area is larger than that of Alaska glaciers.

Mass balance of the northeast sector of the Greenland ice sheet: a remote-sensing perspective

AbstractSynthetic-aperture radar interferometry data and airborne ice-sounding radar (ISR) data are employed to obtain modern estimates of the inland ice production from Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (NB) and Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI), the two largest glaciers draining the northeast sector of the Greenland ice sheet. Ice fluxes are measured at the grounding line (14.2 ±1 km3ice a−1for NB and 10.8 ±1 km3ice a−1for ZI) with an ice thickness deduced from ice-shelf hydrostatic equilibrium, and along an ISR profile collected upstream of the grounding line (14.3 ± 0.7 km3ice a−1for NB and 11.6 ± 0.6 km3ice a−1for ZI). Balance fluxes calculated from a map of snow accumulation and model predictions of surface melt are 11.9 ± 2 km3ice a−1for NB and 10.0 ± 2 km3ice a−1for ZI at the grounding line, and 12.2 and 10.3 km3ice a−1, respectively, at the ISR line. The two glaciers therefore exhibit a negative mass balance equivalent to 14% of their balance flux, with a ±12% uncertainty. Independently, we detect a retreat of the grounding line of NB between 1992 and 1996 which is larger at the glacier center (920 ± 250 m) than on the sides (240 ± 50 m). The corresponding ice-thinning rates (2 ± 1 m a−1at the glacier center and 0.6 ± 0.3 m a−1on the sides) are too large to be accommodated by temporal changes in ablation or accumulation, and must be due to dynamic thinning.

Recent Glacier Variations of the Hielos Patagónicos, South America, and Their Contribution to Sea-level Change

Area variations of outlet glaciers of the Hielos Patagónicos (Patagonia icefields), South America, since 1944/45, are summarized, and the volume of ice loss due to recession and thinning estimated, in order to derive the contribution of the Patagonian glaciers to sea-level change. For the Hielo Patagónico Norte (HPN), variations of 22 outlet glaciers were studied for the period between 1944/45 and 1995/96. Until 1990, most glaciers retreated at increasing rates; however, since then, the retreat has slowed down. The total area loss of the HPN due to frontal recession is about 64 km2. From the estimated ice thickness and thinning rates, a total ice loss of 152–310 km3 was obtained for the 51 yr.In the Hielo Patagónico Sur (HPS), 48 outlet glaciers were studied for the period between 1944/45 and 1985/86. Most glaciers have been retreating, with a few remaining almost stagnant, but two glaciers, Pío XI and Perito Moreno, showed a net advance. The total area loss of the HPS due to recession was about 200 km2. From the estimated ice thickness and thinning rates, a total ice loss was 285–670 km3 for the period of 1945–1986. With a simple linear extrapolation to the period of 1945–1996, figures of 355–833 km3 were obtained. The total volume reduction of the HPN and HPS is therefore roughly 825 ± 320 km3 for the 51-yr period. This amount roughly translates into a world-wide sea-level rise of 1.93 ± 0.75 mm, or 0.038 mm yr−1 since 1944/45, which accounts for 3.6% of the total sea-level change.Analyses of climatic data at several Chilean and Argentinean meteorological stations located around the icefield revealed a slight increase in air temperature and a decrease in precipitation over the last 40 to 50 yr. Other factors affecting the variation include calving status, the ratio of the accumulation area to the total area (AAR), the gradient of the glacier surface near the equilibrium line (EL), and subglacial topography.

Thinning and retreat of Glaciar Upsala, and an estimate of annual ablation changes in southern Patagonia

Glaciar Upsala, a freshwater calving glacier in southern Patagonia, has been retreating since 1978, and after a drastic recession of about 700 m a−1 in 1994 the retreat seems to have stopped in 1995. A large ice-thinning rate of 11 m a−1 was obtained between 1990 and 1993, by surveying surface elevations near the terminus of Glaciar Upsala. In 1993–94, the thinning was estimated at about 20 m a−1 near the lateral margin. Some possible causes of the thinning behavior are considered. In the ablation area of Glaciar Perito Moreno, 50 km south of Glaciar Upsala, ablation rates were measured during 110 d in summer 1993–94, and air temperature was continuously recorded throughout 1994. Using a degree-day method with temperature data at the nearest meteorological station, Calafate, annual ablation during the last 30 years was estimated to fluctuate from about 12 ± 2 to 16 ± 2 m a−1 in ice thickness, with a mean of 14 ± 2 m a−1. Thus, the temperature anomaly alone cannot elucidate the thinning of 11 m a−1 at Glaciar Upsala. As a possible mechanism of the ice-thinning, it is suggested that the considerable retreat due to calving may have resulted in reduction of longitudinal compressive stress exerted from bedrock rises and islands near the glacier front, causing a considerable decrease in the emergence flow. Thus, the ice may have thinned at a rate close to the annual ablation rate.

Thinning and retreat of Glaciar Upsala, and an estimate of annual ablation changes in southern Patagonia

Glaciar Upsala, a freshwater calving glacier in southern Patagonia, has been retreating since 1978, and after a drastic recession of about 700 m a−1 in 1994 the retreat seems to have stopped in 1995. A large ice-thinning rate of 11 m a−1 was obtained between 1990 and 1993, by surveying surface elevations near the terminus of Glaciar Upsala. In 1993–94, the thinning was estimated at about 20 m a−1 near the lateral margin. Some possible causes of the thinning behavior are considered.In the ablation area of Glaciar Perito Moreno, 50 km south of Glaciar Upsala, ablation rates were measured during 110 d in summer 1993–94, and air temperature was continuously recorded throughout 1994. Using a degree-day method with temperature data at the nearest meteorological station, Calafate, annual ablation during the last 30 years was estimated to fluctuate from about 12 ± 2 to 16 ± 2 m a−1 in ice thickness, with a mean of 14 ± 2 m a−1. Thus, the temperature anomaly alone cannot elucidate the thinning of 11 m a−1 at Glaciar Upsala. As a possible mechanism of the ice-thinning, it is suggested that the considerable retreat due to calving may have resulted in reduction of longitudinal compressive stress exerted from bedrock rises and islands near the glacier front, causing a considerable decrease in the emergence flow. Thus, the ice may have thinned at a rate close to the annual ablation rate.

Recent variations of calving glaciers in Patagonia, South America, revealed by ground surveys, satellite-data analyses and numerical experiments

Large retreats were revealed for most glaciers in Patagonia, South America, by analyzing satellite images and air photographs. For example, Glaciar O’Higgins retreated 13 km during 41 years from 1945 to 1986 and Glaciar Upsala retreated about 3 km between 1968 and 1990. During the 41 years former period, however, the southern tongue of Glaciar Pio XI advanced by up to 8.5 km and Glaciar Moreno remained almost in a steady state. Considerable ice-thinning rates, from 3.0 to 11 ma−1, were measured by surveying surface profiles in the ablation areas of Tyndall and Upsala glaciers, respectively, during the period from 1985 (or 1990) to 1993. The ice thickness of Glaciar Moreno, however, has changed very little.Numerical experiments using a simple mass-balance model show that a 100 m rise in the equilibrium-line altitude due to climatic change would result in about a 200–350 m rise in the frontal altitude at Glaciar Upsala corresponding to a retreat of 5–8 km, while it would cause only about a 70–100 m rise at Glaciar Moreno. The large difference between these two neighbouring glaciers results from the difference in contributions of the calving amount to the total mass balance, as well as the difference in the altitudinal distributions of drainage areas.

Recent variations of calving glaciers in Patagonia, South America, revealed by ground surveys, satellite-data analyses and numerical experiments

Large retreats were revealed for most glaciers in Patagonia, South America, by analyzing satellite images and air photographs. For example, Glaciar O’Higgins retreated 13 km during 41 years from 1945 to 1986 and Glaciar Upsala retreated about 3 km between 1968 and 1990. During the 41 years former period, however, the southern tongue of Glaciar Pio XI advanced by up to 8.5 km and Glaciar Moreno remained almost in a steady state. Considerable ice-thinning rates, from 3.0 to 11 ma−1, were measured by surveying surface profiles in the ablation areas of Tyndall and Upsala glaciers, respectively, during the period from 1985 (or 1990) to 1993. The ice thickness of Glaciar Moreno, however, has changed very little. Numerical experiments using a simple mass-balance model show that a 100 m rise in the equilibrium-line altitude due to climatic change would result in about a 200–350 m rise in the frontal altitude at Glaciar Upsala corresponding to a retreat of 5–8 km, while it would cause only about a 70–100 m rise at Glaciar Moreno. The large difference between these two neighbouring glaciers results from the difference in contributions of the calving amount to the total mass balance, as well as the difference in the altitudinal distributions of drainage areas.