Ice Shelf Stability Research Articles

Recent sedimentology at the grounding zone of the Kamb Ice stream, West Antarctica and implications for ice shelf extent

Sediment accumulating beneath floating ice contains a record of ice dynamics in polar regions where in situ observations are rare. In 2019 a hole was melted through a 590m-thick region of the Ross Ice Shelf ∼5 km seawards of the Kamb Ice Stream (KIS) grounding line (82.7841°S, 155.2626°W) to access the seafloor. Imagery from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV, Icefin) shows ocean current-generated ripples likely formed by tidal flow parallel to the grounding line (GL). Observed current speeds <0.15 m s−1 suggest these bedforms may be relict. Larger, dm-scale, ‘furrows’ parallel to the former direction of KIS flow may relate to past grounding line processes. A 0.49 m-long gravity core collected from the seafloor contains weakly stratified diamicton. The sediment matrix comprises variable mixtures of reworked Tertiary biogenic silica, predominantly diatoms, and arkose material. Sediment εNd values of ∼7 are consistent with derivation from the WAIS, as is the U-Pb age distribution and modelled late Holocene ice flows. Ramped pyrolysis 14C analysis shows all fractions are either >30 ka or 14C dead. By contrast, 210Pb-210 activity of >30 Bq Kg−1 indicates deposition within the last 120 years. The combination of features suggests rapid rainout deposition from melting of a sediment-laden basal debris layer as the GL retreated, followed by some reworking by ocean currents and little modern accumulation. Although Tertiary diatoms are abundant, unambiguously Late Quaternary forms are absent and we speculate on the implications for Ross Ice Shelf stability. [239 wds]

Substantial contribution of slush to meltwater area across Antarctic ice shelves

Surface melting occurs across many of Antarctica’s ice shelves, mainly during the austral summer. The onset, duration, area and fate of surface melting varies spatially and temporally, and the resultant surface meltwater is stored as ponded water (lakes) or as slush (saturated firn or snow), with implications for ice-shelf hydrofracture, firn air content reduction, surface energy balance and thermal evolution. This study applies a machine-learning method to the entire Landsat 8 image catalogue to derive monthly records of slush and ponded water area across 57 ice shelves between 2013 and 2021. We find that slush and ponded water occupy roughly equal areas of Antarctica’s ice shelves in January, with inter-regional variations in partitioning. This suggests that studies that neglect slush may substantially underestimate the area of ice shelves covered by surface meltwater. Furthermore, we found that adjusting the surface albedo in a regional climate model to account for the lower albedo of surface meltwater resulted in 2.8 times greater snowmelt across five representative ice shelves. This extra melt is currently unaccounted for in regional climate models, which may lead to underestimates in projections of ice-sheet melting and ice-shelf stability.

Wave impedance inversion and interpretation of Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data for Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica

The polar ice sheet is vital for the global climate system, influencing the Antarctic ice sheet's mass balance, sea level rise, and Earth's surface energy. Accurate measurement of its thickness and internal structure is imperative for comprehending glacier evolution and climate change. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is a high-resolution and non-invasive exploration instrument that is extensively used for glacier detection, but only limited geometric information can be identified in the GPR profile, making it difficult to capture the quantitative distribution of physical parameters. To image the fine dielectric parameters of GPR data acquired from the Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica in 2003, we propose a multi-trace GPR impedance inversion approach. This method utilizes the limited-memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm for GPR data, coupled with weighted L2-norm total-variation multiplicative regularization (MR) to quantitatively estimate the dielectric parameters in the interior of the ice sheet. This scheme adaptively adapts regularization parameters, enhances vertical resolution, and suppresses noise. Additionally, considering lateral correlation, we integrate directional differences to enhance lateral continuity. After validating with complex test data, we apply the method to Amery Ice Shelf GPR data, quantitatively imaging the ice sheet's geometric and dielectric parameters. The inversion results reveal ice thickness, internal features, and the interface between freshwater ice and refrozen sea ice. This allowed us to determine the ablation and refreezing zone boundary at the bottom of ice shelf, providing insights into melting/freezing mechanisms, ice shelf stability, and simulating ice shelf interior dynamics.

Ice shelf basal channel shape determines channelized ice-ocean interactions

Growing evidence has confirmed the critical role played by basal channels beneath Antarctic ice shelves in both ice shelf stability and freshwater input to the surrounding ocean. Here we show, using a 3D ice shelf-ocean boundary current model, that deeper basal channels can lead to a significant amplification in channelized basal melting, meltwater channeling, and warming and salinization of the channel flow. All of these channelized quantities are also modulated by channel width, with the level of modulation determined by channel height. The explicit quantification of channelized basal melting and the meltwater transport in terms of channel cross-sectional shape is potentially beneficial for the evaluation of ice shelf mass balance and meltwater contribution to the nearshore oceanography. Complicated topographically controlled circulations are revealed to be responsible for the unique thermohaline structure inside deep channels. Our study emphasizes the need for improvement in observations of evolving basal channels and the hydrography inside them, as well as adjacent to the ice front where channelized meltwater emerges.

The complex basal morphology and ice dynamics of the Nansen Ice Shelf, East Antarctica

Abstract. Ice shelf dynamics and morphology play an important role in the stability of floating bodies of ice by driving fracturing that can lead to calving, in turn impacting the ability of the ice shelf to buttress upstream grounded ice. Following a 2016 calving event at the Nansen Ice Shelf (NIS), East Antarctica, we collected airborne and ground-based radar data to map ice thickness across the shelf. We combine these data with published satellite-derived data to examine the spatial variations in ice shelf draft, the cause and effects of ice shelf strain rates, and the possibility that a suture zone may be channelizing ocean water and altering patterns of sub-ice-shelf melt and freeze-on. We also use our datasets to assess limitations that may arise from relying on hydrostatic-balance equations applied to ice surface elevation to determine ice draft morphology. We find that the Nansen Ice Shelf has a highly variable basal morphology driven primarily by the formation of basal fractures near the onset of the ice shelf suture zone. This morphology is reflected in the ice shelf strain rates but not in the calculated hydrostatic-balance thickness, which underestimates the scale of variability at the ice shelf base. Enhanced melt rates near the ice shelf terminus and in steep regions of the channelized suture zone, along with relatively thin ice in the suture zone, appear to represent vulnerable areas in the NIS. This morphology, combined with ice dynamics, induce strain that has led to the formation of transverse fractures within the suture zone, resulting in large-scale calving events. Similar transverse fractures at other Antarctic ice shelves may also be driven by highly variable morphology, and predicting their formation and evolution could aid projections of ice shelf stability.

Antarctic-wide ice-shelf firn emulation reveals robust future firn air depletion signal for the Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic firn is critical for ice-shelf stability because it stores meltwater that would otherwise pond on the surface. Ponded meltwater increases the risk of hydrofracture and subsequent potential ice-shelf collapse. Here, we use output from a firn model to build a computationally simpler emulator that uses a random forest to predict ice-shelf effective firn air content, which considers impermeable ice layers that make deeper parts of the firn inaccessible to meltwater, based on climate conditions. We find that summer air temperature and precipitation are the most important climatic features for predicting firn air content. Based on the climatology from an ensemble of Earth System Models, we find that the Larsen C Ice Shelf is most at risk of firn air depletion during the 21st century, while the larger Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves are unlikely to experience substantial firn air content change. This work demonstrates the utility of emulation for computationally efficient estimations of complicated ice sheet processes.

Coastal bathymetry in central Dronning Maud Land controls ice shelf stability

Knowledge of the bathymetry of Antarctica’s margins is crucial for models and interpretations of ice-ocean interactions and their influence on ongoing and future sea level change, but remains patchy where ice shelves and multi-year sea ice block measurements. Here, we present a bathymetric model for the central Dronning Maud Land margin, based on a constrained inversion of airborne gravity data. It shows the cavities beneath the region’s two ice shelves to be much deeper than in existing bathymetric compilations, but to be shielded from Warm Deep Water ingress and basal melting by the presence of shallow bathymetric sills along the continental shelf. Over areas of multi-year sea ice, the model returns bathymetric estimates of similar accuracy to gravity interpolation-based methods over open water. Airborne gravity thus presents an opportunity to bathymetrically map hundreds of thousands of square kilometres of the most inaccessible margins of Antarctica at resolutions adequate for regional and global oceanographic and glaciological modelling and interpretation.

A high-resolution record of surface melt on Antarctic ice shelves using multi-source remote sensing data and deep learning

While the influence of surface melt on Antarctic ice shelf stability can be large, the duration and affected area of melt events are often small. Therefore, melt events are difficult to capture with remote sensing, as satellite sensors always face the trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. To overcome this limitation, we developed UMelt: a surface melt record for all Antarctic ice shelves with a high spatial (500 m) and high temporal (12 h) resolution for the period 2016–2021. Our approach is based on a deep learning model, specifically a U-Net, which was developed in Google Earth Engine. The U-Net combines microwave remote sensing observations from three sources: Sentinel-1, Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS), and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). The U-Net was trained on the Shackleton Ice Shelf for melt seasons 2017–2021, using the fine-scale melt patterns of Sentinel-1 as reference data and SSMIS, ASCAT, a digital elevation model, and multi-year Sentinel-1 melt fraction as predictors. The trained U-Net performed well on the Shackelton Ice Shelf for test melt season 2016–2017 (accuracy: 91.3%; F1-score: 86.9%), and the Larsen C Ice Shelf, which was not considered during training (accuracy: 91.0%; F1-score: 89.3%). Using the trained U-Net model, we have successfully developed the UMelt record. UMelt allows Antarctic-wide surface melt to be detected at a small scale while preserving a high temporal resolution, which could lead to new insights into the response of ice shelves to a changing atmospheric forcing.

Decoding the Dynamics of Climate Change Impact: Temporal Patterns of Surface Warming and Melting on the Nivlisen Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

This study analyzes the dynamics of surface melting in Antarctica, which are crucial for understanding glacier and ice sheet behavior and monitoring polar climate change. Specifically, we focus on the Nivlisen ice shelf in East Antarctica, examining melt ponds, supra glacial lakes (SGLs), seasonal surface melt extent, and surface ice flow velocity. Spatial and temporal analysis is based on Landsat and Sentinel-1 data from the austral summers of 2000 to 2023. Between 2000 and 2014, melt ponds and SGLs on the ice shelf covered roughly 1 km2. However, from 2015 to 2023, surface melting increased consistently, leading to more extensive melt ponds and SGLs. Significant SGL depths were observed in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020, with 2008, 2016, and 2020 showing the highest volumes and progressive SGL area growth. We also examined the relationship between seasonal surface melt extent and ice flow velocity. Validation efforts involved ground truth data from a melt pond in central Dronning Maud Land (cDML) during the 2022–2023 austral summer, along with model-based results. The observed increase in melt pond depth and volume may significantly impact ice shelf stability, potentially accelerating ice flow and ice shelf destabilization. Continuous monitoring is essential for accurately assessing climate change’s ongoing impact on Antarctic ice shelves.

Suitability analysis of human activities over Antarctic ice shelves: an integrated assessment of natural conditions based on machine learning algorithms

ABSTRACT Human activities increase significantly over Antarctic ice shelves. However, they are constantly faced with danger posed by the harsh environment. For decision-making, it is a prerequisite to have the macro-scale suitability information about human activity site selection. Here, we define a new index, the human activity suitability (HAS) index, to quantitatively analyze the locational suitability of human activity sites over Antarctic ice shelves. Two multi-criteria decision analysis methods (AHP + Entropy, TOPSIS) and three machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forest and logistic regression) are tested to develop HAS maps. Nine conditioning factors about ice surface features, ice shelf stability, meteorology and topography are generated as input parameters. The accuracy of the proposed models is evaluated using metrics such as the area under curve (AUC-ROC), root mean square error, overall accuracy and kappa index. The results indicate that the Random Forest performs best. The HAS map exhibits great heterogeneity driven by the synergistic influence of multiple factors. Areas in low HAS classes are concentrated at Crosson, Brunt, Thwaites and the edge of some ice shelves, implying the complex environment in these regions. The findings can provide a new insight for forecasting the potential human footprint and support sustainability research in Antarctica.

The distribution and evolution of surface fractures on pan-Antarctic ice shelves

ABSTRACT Surface fractures have a great impact on ice shelf stability in Antarctica and can be considered precursors of ice shelf calving. However, our understanding of the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of surface fractures on the Antarctic ice shelf is limited. In this study, a ResUNet model was implemented on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Mosaic of Antarctica (MOA) to identify the spatial distribution of Antarctic ice shelf surface fractures in 2004, 2009, and 2014. The accuracy of identification had an F1 value of 0.771. Our model identified 44744.592619.61 km² of surface fractures in 2004, 43737.152644.60 km² in 2009, and 42978.67 2639.33 km² in 2014. The reduction is primarily attributed to the variation in surface fractures within 20 km of the ice front, paratactically in the Amundsen and Wilkes sectors. Ice shelves in the Amundsen sector typically have a widespread distribution of surface fractures, with particularly high concentrations found in the Thwaites Ice Shelf, Crosson Ice Shelf and Getz Ice Shelf. The Brunt Ice Shelf also exhibits numerous surface fractures. This study provides comprehensive and detailed information about surface fractures on Antarctic ice shelves, carrying implications for evaluating ice shelf vulnerability.

Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0)

Abstract. A major source of uncertainty in future sea level projections is the ocean-driven basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves. While ice sheet models require a kilometre-scale resolution to realistically resolve ice shelf stability and grounding line migration, global or regional 3D ocean models are computationally too expensive to produce basal melt forcing fields at this resolution on long timescales. To bridge this resolution gap, we introduce the 2D numerical model LADDIE (one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges), which allows for the computationally efficient modelling of detailed basal melt fields. The model is open source and can be applied easily to different geometries or different ocean forcings. The aim of this study is threefold: to introduce the model to the community, to demonstrate its application and performance in two use cases, and to describe and interpret new basal melt patterns simulated by this model. The two use cases are the small Crosson–Dotson Ice Shelf in the warm Amundsen Sea region and the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in the cold Weddell Sea. At ice-shelf-wide scales, LADDIE reproduces observed patterns of basal melting and freezing in warm and cold environments without the need to re-tune parameters for individual ice shelves. At scales of 0.5–5 km, which are typically unresolved by 3D ocean models and poorly constrained by observations, LADDIE produces plausible basal melt patterns. Most significantly, the simulated basal melt patterns are physically consistent with the applied ice shelf topography. These patterns are governed by the topographic steering and Coriolis deflection of meltwater flows, two processes that are poorly represented in basal melt parameterisations. The kilometre-scale melt patterns simulated by LADDIE include enhanced melt rates in grounding zones and basal channels and enhanced melt or freezing in shear margins. As these regions are critical for ice shelf stability, we conclude that LADDIE can provide detailed basal melt patterns at the essential resolution that ice sheet models require. The physical consistency between the applied geometry and the simulated basal melt fields indicates that LADDIE can play a valuable role in the development of coupled ice–ocean modelling.

Subglacial Freshwater Drainage Increases Simulated Basal Melt of the Totten Ice Shelf

AbstractSubglacial freshwater discharge from beneath Antarctic glaciers likely has a strong impact on ice shelf basal melting. However, the difficulty in directly observing subglacial flow highlights the importance of modeling these processes. We use an ocean model of the Totten Ice Shelf cavity into which we inject subglacial discharge derived from a hydrology model applied to Aurora Subglacial Basin. Our results show (a) discharge increases melting in the vicinity of the outflow region, which correlates with features observed in surface elevation maps and satellite‐derived melt maps, with implications for ice shelf stability; (b) the change in melting is driven by the formation of a buoyant plume rather than the addition of heat; and (c) the buoyant plume originating from subglacial discharge‐driven melting is far‐reaching. Basal melting induced by subglacial hydrology is thus important for ice shelf stability, but is absent from almost all ice‐ocean models.

Characterising ice slabs in firn using seismic full waveform inversion, a sensitivity study

AbstractThe density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling, and ice-shelf stability. The structure of firn can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz–Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is strictly appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, full waveform inversion (FWI) may yield more success than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals. Using synthetic firn density profiles, assuming both steady- and non-steady-state accumulation, we show that FWI outperforms HWI for detecting ice slab boundaries (5–80 m thick, 5–80 m deep) and velocity anomalies within firn. FWI can detect slabs thicker than one wavelength (here, 20 m, assuming a maximum frequency of 60 Hz) but requires the starting velocity model to be accurate to ±2.5%. We recommend for field practice that the shallowest layers of velocity models are constrained with ground-truth data. Nonetheless, FWI shows advantages over established methods, and should be considered when the characterisation of firn ice slabs is the goal of the seismic survey.

Remote Sensing of Surface Melt on Antarctica: Opportunities and Challenges

Surface melt is an important driver of ice shelf disintegration and its consequent mass loss over the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Monitoring surface melt using satellite remote sensing can enhance our understanding of ice shelf stability. However, the sensors do not measure the actual physical process of surface melt, but rather observe the presence of liquid water. Moreover, the sensor observations are influenced by the sensor characteristics and surface properties. Therefore, large inconsistencies can exist in the derived melt estimates from different sensors. In this study, we apply state-of-the-art melt detection algorithms to four frequently used remote sensing sensors: two active microwave sensors, ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) and Sentinel-1, a passive microwave sensor SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder), and an optical sensor MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). We intercompare the melt detection results over the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet and four selected study regions for the melt seasons 2015-2020. Our results show large spatiotemporal differences in detected melt between the sensors, with particular disagreement in blue ice areas, in aquifer regions, and during wintertime surface melt. We discuss that discrepancies between sensors are mainly due to (1) cloud obstruction and polar darkness, (2) frequency-dependent penetration of satellite signals, (3) temporal resolution, and (4) spatial resolution, as well as (5) the applied melt detection methods. Nevertheless, we argue that different sensors can complement each other, enabling improved detection of surface melt over the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Damage detection on antarctic ice shelves using the normalised radon transform

Areas of structural damage mechanically weaken Antarctic ice shelves. This potentially preconditions ice shelves for disintegration and enhanced grounding line retreat. The development of damage and its feedback on marine ice sheet dynamics has been identified as key to future ice shelf stability and sea level contributions from Antarctica. However, it is one of the least understood processes that impact ice shelf instability since quantifying damage efficiently and accurately is a challenging task. Challenges relate to the complex surface of Antarctica, variations in viewing-illumination geometry, snow or cloud cover and variable signal-to-noise levels in satellite imagery. Therefore, automated damage assessment approaches require careful pre- and post-processing, lacking the option to be applied to wider spatiotemporal domains. Simultaneously, studies that use manual mapping are usually limited due to the effort required for extensive mapping, which either results in a limited spatial domain or the use of low resolution data.This study proposes the NormalisEd Radon transform Damage detection (NeRD) method to detect damage features and their orientations from multi-source satellite imagery. NeRD performs robust, high resolution, large-scale damage assessments. NeRD is applied to the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) and validated with both manually labelled and existing fracture maps. Validation shows that NeRD detects damage with high recall and provides an accurate physical representation of multi-scale damage features and their orientation. Sensitivity analyses indicate NeRD is robust to different resolution parameter settings. NeRD consistently detects damage for different data sources ranging from optical Landsat 7/8 and Sentinel-2 optical to Synthetic Aperture Radar Sentinel-1 data. Therefore, NeRD paves the way for synergistic multi-source damage detection that overcomes remaining limitations from individual sources. Results show varying damage patterns on the ice shelves in the ASE area in austral summer 2020–2021, with most damage located on the Pine Island, Crosson and Thwaites ice shelves. We show a damage increase on the Pine Island ice shelf between 2013–2019, and display advection and rotation of crevasses. The detected damage orientation can provide insight in the type of crevasse opening mode and the development of damage over time. The damage maps produced with NeRD can help evaluate ice sheet models or machine learning approaches, improving our understanding of damage evolution.

Surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf, East Antarctica (2003–2021)

Abstract. Melt on the surface of Antarctic ice shelves can potentially lead to their disintegration, accelerating the flow of grounded ice to the ocean and raising global sea levels. However, the current understanding of the processes driving surface melt is incomplete, increasing uncertainty in predictions of ice shelf stability and thus of Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise. Previous studies of surface melt in Antarctica have usually focused on either a process-level understanding of melt through energy-balance investigations or used metrics such as the annual number of melt days to quantify spatiotemporal variability in satellite observations of surface melt. Here, we help bridge the gap between work at these two scales. Using daily passive microwave observations from the AMSR-E and AMSR-2 sensors and the machine learning approach of a self-organising map, we identify nine representative spatial distributions (“patterns”) of surface melt on the Shackleton Ice Shelf in East Antarctica from 2002/03–2020/21. Combined with output from the RACMO2.3p3 regional climate model and surface topography from the REMA digital elevation model, our results point to a significant role for surface air temperatures in controlling the interannual variability in summer melt and also reveal the influence of localised controls on melt. In particular, prolonged melt along the grounding line shows the importance of katabatic winds and surface albedo. Our approach highlights the necessity of understanding both local and large-scale controls on surface melt and demonstrates that self-organising maps can be used to investigate the variability in surface melt on Antarctic ice shelves.

The role of channelized basal melt in ice-shelf stability: recent progress and future priorities

AbstractBasal channels, which form where buoyant plumes of ocean water and meltwater carve troughs upwards into ice-shelf bases, are widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. The formation of these features modulates ice-shelf basal melt by influencing the flow of buoyant plumes, and influences structural stability through concentration of strain and interactions with fractures. Because of these effects, and because basal channels can change rapidly, on timescales similar to those of ice-shelf evolution, constraining the impacts of basal channels on ice shelves is necessary for predicting future ice-shelf destabilization and retreat. We suggest that future research priorities should include constraining patterns and rates of basal channel change, determining mechanisms and detailed patterns of basal melt, and quantifying the influence that channel-related fractures have on ice-shelf stability.

A synthetic study of acoustic full waveform inversion to improve seismic modelling of firn

AbstractThe density structure of firn has implications for hydrological and climate modelling and for ice shelf stability. The firn structure can be evaluated from depth models of seismic velocity, widely obtained with Herglotz-Wiechert inversion (HWI), an approach that considers the slowness of refracted seismic arrivals. However, HWI is appropriate only for steady-state firn profiles and the inversion accuracy can be compromised where firn contains ice layers. In these cases, Full Waveform Inversion (FWI) can be more successful than HWI. FWI extends HWI capabilities by considering the full seismic waveform and incorporates reflected arrivals, thus offering a more accurate estimate of a velocity profile. We show the FWI characterisation of the velocity model has an error of only 1.7% for regions (vs. 4.2% with HWI) with an ice slab (20 m thick, 40 m deep) in an otherwise steady-state firn profile.

Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf

Abstract. Ice shelves play a key role in the dynamics of marine ice sheets by buttressing grounded ice and limiting rates of ice flux to the oceans. In response to recent climatic and oceanic change, ice shelves fringing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have begun to fragment and retreat, with major implications for ice-sheet stability. Here, we focus on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS), the remaining pinned floating extension of Thwaites Glacier. We show that TEIS has undergone a process of fragmentation in the last 5 years, including brittle failure along a major shear zone, formation of tensile cracks on the main body of the shelf, and a release of tabular bergs on both the eastern and western flanks. Simulations with the Helsinki Discrete Element Model (HiDEM) show that this pattern of failure is associated with high backstress from a submarine pinning point at the distal edge of the shelf. We show that a significant zone of shear, upstream of the main pinning point, developed in response to the rapid acceleration of the shelf between 2002 and 2006, seeding damage on the shelf. Subsequently, basal melting and positive feedback between damage and strain rates weakened TEIS, allowing damage to accumulate. Thus, although backstress on TEIS has likely diminished over time as the pinning point shrunk, accumulation of damage has ensured that the ice in the shear zone remained the weakest link in the system. Experiments with the BISICLES ice-sheet model indicate that additional damage to or unpinning of TEIS is unlikely to trigger significantly increased ice loss from WAIS, but the calving response to the loss of TEIS remains highly uncertain. It is widely recognised that ice-shelf fragmentation and collapse can be triggered by hydrofracturing and/or unpinning from ice-shelf margins or grounding points. Our results indicate a third mechanism, backstress triggered failure, that can occur if and when an ice shelf is no longer able to withstand stress imposed by pinning points. In most circumstances, pinning points are essential for ice-shelf stability, but as ice shelves thin and weaken, the concentration of backstress in damaged ice upstream of a pinning point may provide the seeds of their demise.