Suitability analysis of human activities over Antarctic ice shelves: an integrated assessment of natural conditions based on machine learning algorithms

Abstract

ABSTRACT Human activities increase significantly over Antarctic ice shelves. However, they are constantly faced with danger posed by the harsh environment. For decision-making, it is a prerequisite to have the macro-scale suitability information about human activity site selection. Here, we define a new index, the human activity suitability (HAS) index, to quantitatively analyze the locational suitability of human activity sites over Antarctic ice shelves. Two multi-criteria decision analysis methods (AHP + Entropy, TOPSIS) and three machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forest and logistic regression) are tested to develop HAS maps. Nine conditioning factors about ice surface features, ice shelf stability, meteorology and topography are generated as input parameters. The accuracy of the proposed models is evaluated using metrics such as the area under curve (AUC-ROC), root mean square error, overall accuracy and kappa index. The results indicate that the Random Forest performs best. The HAS map exhibits great heterogeneity driven by the synergistic influence of multiple factors. Areas in low HAS classes are concentrated at Crosson, Brunt, Thwaites and the edge of some ice shelves, implying the complex environment in these regions. The findings can provide a new insight for forecasting the potential human footprint and support sustainability research in Antarctica.