Melting Of Ice Shelves Research Articles

Committed future ice-shelf melt

Committed future ice-shelf melt

Characteristics and rarity of the strong 1940s westerly wind event over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica

Abstract. Glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica are rapidly retreating and contributing to sea level rise. Ice loss is occurring primarily via exposure to warm ocean water, which varies in response to local wind variability. There is evidence that retreat was initiated in the mid-20th century, but the perturbation that may have triggered retreat remains unknown. A leading hypothesis is that large pressure and wind anomalies in the 1940s drove exceptionally strong oceanic ice-shelf melting. However, the characteristics, drivers, and rarity of the atmospheric event remain poorly constrained. We investigate the 1940s atmospheric event using paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations. The reconstructions show that large westerly wind anomalies occurred from ∼1938–1942, a combined response to the very large El Niño event from 1940–1942 and other variability beginning years earlier. Climate model simulations provide evidence that events of similar magnitude and duration may occur tens to hundreds of times per 10 kyr of internal climate variability (∼0.2 to 2.5 occurrences per century). Our results suggest that the 1940s westerly event is unlikely to have been exceptional enough to be the sole explanation for the initiation of Amundsen Sea glacier retreat. Additional factors are likely needed to explain the onset of retreat in West Antarctica, such as naturally arising variability in ocean conditions prior to the 1940s or anthropogenically driven trends since the 1940s.

Low cobalt inventories in the Amundsen and Ross seas driven by high demand for labile cobalt uptake among native phytoplankton communities

Abstract. Cobalt (Co) is a scarce but essential micronutrient for marine plankton in the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctic seas, where dissolved cobalt (dCo) concentrations can be extremely low. This study presents total dCo and labile dCo distributions measured via shipboard voltammetry in the Amundsen Sea, the Ross Sea and Terra Nova Bay during the CICLOPS (Cobalamin and Iron Co-Limitation of Phytoplankton Species) expedition. A significantly smaller dCo inventory was observed during the 2017/2018 CICLOPS expedition compared to two 2005/2006 expeditions to the Ross Sea conducted over a decade earlier. The dCo inventory loss (∼ 10–20 pM) was present in both the surface and deep ocean and was attributed to the loss of labile dCo, resulting in the near-complete complexation of dCo by strong ligands in the photic zone. A changing dCo inventory in Antarctic coastal seas could be driven by the alleviation of iron (Fe) limitation in coastal areas, where the flux of Fe-rich sediments from melting ice shelves and deep sediment resuspension may have shifted the region towards vitamin B12 and/or zinc (Zn) limitation, both of which are likely to increase the demand for Co among marine plankton. High demand for Zn by phytoplankton can result in increased Co and cadmium (Cd) uptake because these metals often share the same metal uptake transporters. This study compared the magnitudes and ratios of Zn, Cd and Co uptake (ρ) across upper-ocean profiles and the observed order-of-magnitude uptake trends (ρZn > ρCd > ρCo) that paralleled the trace metal concentrations in seawater. High rates of Co and Zn uptake were observed throughout the region, and the speciation of available Co and Zn appeared to influence trends in dissolved metal : phosphate stoichiometry and uptake rates over depth. Multi-year loss of the dCo inventory throughout the water column may be explained by an increase in Co uptake into particulate organic matter and subsequently an increased flux of Co into sediments via sinking and burial. This perturbation of the Southern Ocean Co biogeochemical cycle could signal changes in the nutrient limitation regimes, phytoplankton bloom composition and carbon sequestration sink of the Southern Ocean.

Ice Shelf Water Structure Beneath the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica

AbstractUnderstanding ice shelf water (ISW) structure is crucial for studying the basal melting of ice shelves. In this study, we performed large‐eddy simulation experiments to assess ISW structure and basal melt patterns under different current velocity scenarios observed in the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica. The LES results revealed that the thickness of ISW is primarily determined by the meridional velocity (perpendicular to the grounding line), while the zonal velocity influences the potential temperature and salinity of ISW. We found that a key parameter determining the basal melt rate was northward meltwater advection which originates from variances in meltwater generation. This advection, in turn, leads to the tilted isopycnals and the potential for thermohaline interleaving in a diffusive convection regime. The different slopes of isopycnals induce distinct heat fluxes, resulting in different basal melt rates far from and near the grounding line (∼0.44 and 1.59 m yr−1, respectively).

High‐Resolution Simulations of the Plume Dynamics in an Idealized 79°N Glacier Cavity Using Adaptive Vertical Coordinates

AbstractFor better projections of sea level rise, two things are needed: an improved understanding of the contributing processes and their accurate representation in climate models. A major process is basal melting of ice shelves and glacier tongues by the ocean, which reduces ice sheet stability and increases ice discharge into the ocean. We study marine melting of Greenland's largest floating ice tongue, the 79° North Glacier, using a high‐resolution, 2D‐vertical ocean model. While our fjord model is idealized, the results agree with observations of melt rate and overturning strength. Our setup is the first application of adaptive vertical coordinates to an ice cavity. Their stratification‐zooming allows a vertical resolution finer than 1 m in the entrainment layer of the meltwater plume, which is important for the plume development. We find that the plume development is dominated by entrainment only initially. In the stratified upper part of the cavity, the subglacial plume shows continuous detrainment. It reaches neutral buoyancy near 100 m depth, detaches from the ice, and transports meltwater out of the fjord. Melting almost stops there. In a sensitivity study, we show that the detachment depth depends primarily on stratification. Our results contribute to the understanding of ice–ocean interactions in glacier cavities. Furthermore, we suggest that our modeling approach with stratification‐zooming coordinates will improve the representation of these interactions in global ocean models. Finally, our idealized model topography and forcing are close to a real fjord and completely defined analytically, making the setup an interesting reference case for future model developments.

Warming beneath an East Antarctic ice shelf due to increased subpolar westerlies and reduced sea ice

Understanding how climate change influences ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is one of the greatest challenges for projecting future sea level rise. The East Antarctic ice shelf cavities host cold water masses that limit melting, and only a few short-term observational studies exist on what drives warm water intrusions into these cavities. We analyse nine years of continuous oceanographic records from below Fimbulisen and relate them to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. On monthly time scales, warm inflow events are associated with weakened coastal easterlies reducing downwelling in front of the ice shelf. Since 2016, however, we observe sustained warming, with inflowing Warm Deep Water temperatures reaching above 0 °C. This is concurrent with an increase in satellite-derived basal melt rates of 0.62 m yr−1, which nearly doubles the basal mass loss at this relatively cold ice shelf cavity. We find that this transition is linked to a reduction in coastal sea ice cover through an increase in atmosphere–ocean momentum transfer and to a strengthening of remote subpolar westerlies. These results imply that East Antarctic ice shelves may become more exposed to warmer waters with a projected increase of circum-Antarctic westerlies, increasing this region’s relevance for sea level rise projections.

Coastal Polynyas Enable Transitions Between High and Low West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Rates

AbstractMelt rates of West Antarctic ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea track large decadal variations in the volume of warm water at their outlets. This variability is generally attributed to wind‐driven variations in warm water transport toward ice shelves. Inspired by conceptual representations of the global overturning circulation, we introduce a simple model for the evolution of the thermocline, which caps the warm water layer at the ice‐shelf front. This model demonstrates that interannual variations in coastal polynya buoyancy forcing can generate large decadal‐scale thermocline depth variations, even when the supply of warm water from the shelf‐break is fixed. The modeled variability involves transitions between bistable high and low melt regimes, enabled by feedbacks between basal melt rates and ice front stratification strength. Our simple model captures observed variations in near‐coast thermocline depth and stratification strength, and poses an alternative mechanism for warm water volume changes to wind‐driven theories.

Modelling Antarctic ice shelf basal melt patterns using the one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges (LADDIE v1.0)

Abstract. A major source of uncertainty in future sea level projections is the ocean-driven basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves. While ice sheet models require a kilometre-scale resolution to realistically resolve ice shelf stability and grounding line migration, global or regional 3D ocean models are computationally too expensive to produce basal melt forcing fields at this resolution on long timescales. To bridge this resolution gap, we introduce the 2D numerical model LADDIE (one-layer Antarctic model for dynamical downscaling of ice–ocean exchanges), which allows for the computationally efficient modelling of detailed basal melt fields. The model is open source and can be applied easily to different geometries or different ocean forcings. The aim of this study is threefold: to introduce the model to the community, to demonstrate its application and performance in two use cases, and to describe and interpret new basal melt patterns simulated by this model. The two use cases are the small Crosson–Dotson Ice Shelf in the warm Amundsen Sea region and the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in the cold Weddell Sea. At ice-shelf-wide scales, LADDIE reproduces observed patterns of basal melting and freezing in warm and cold environments without the need to re-tune parameters for individual ice shelves. At scales of 0.5–5 km, which are typically unresolved by 3D ocean models and poorly constrained by observations, LADDIE produces plausible basal melt patterns. Most significantly, the simulated basal melt patterns are physically consistent with the applied ice shelf topography. These patterns are governed by the topographic steering and Coriolis deflection of meltwater flows, two processes that are poorly represented in basal melt parameterisations. The kilometre-scale melt patterns simulated by LADDIE include enhanced melt rates in grounding zones and basal channels and enhanced melt or freezing in shear margins. As these regions are critical for ice shelf stability, we conclude that LADDIE can provide detailed basal melt patterns at the essential resolution that ice sheet models require. The physical consistency between the applied geometry and the simulated basal melt fields indicates that LADDIE can play a valuable role in the development of coupled ice–ocean modelling.

First description of in situ chlorophyll fluorescence signal within East Antarctic coastal polynyas during fall and winter

Antarctic coastal polynyas are persistent and recurrent regions of open water located between the coast and the drifting pack-ice. In spring, they are the first polar areas to be exposed to light, leading to the development of phytoplankton blooms, making polynyas potential ecological hotspots in sea-ice regions. Knowledge on polynya oceanography and ecology during winter is limited due to their inaccessibility. This study describes i) the first in situ chlorophyll fluorescence signal (a proxy for chlorophyll-a concentration and thus presence of phytoplankton) in polynyas between the end of summer and winter, ii) assesses whether the signal persists through time and iii) identifies its main oceanographic drivers. The dataset comprises 698 profiles of fluorescence, temperature and salinity recorded by southern elephant seals in 2011, 2019-2021 in the Cape-Darnley (CDP;67˚S-69˚E) and Shackleton (SP;66˚S-95˚E) polynyas between February and September. A significant fluorescence signal was observed until April in both polynyas. An additional signal occurring at 130m depth in August within CDP may result from in situ growth of phytoplankton due to potential adaptation to low irradiance or remnant chlorophyll-a that was advected into the polynya. The decrease and deepening of the fluorescence signal from February to August was accompanied by the deepening of the mixed layer depth and a cooling and salinification of the water column in both polynyas. Using Principal Component Analysis as an exploratory tool, we highlighted previously unsuspected drivers of the fluorescence signal within polynyas. CDP shows clear differences in biological and environmental conditions depending on topographic features with higher fluorescence in warmer and saltier waters on the shelf compared with the continental slope. In SP, near the ice-shelf, a significant fluorescence signal in April below the mixed layer (around 130m depth), was associated with fresher and warmer waters. We hypothesize that this signal could result from potential ice-shelf melting from warm water intrusions onto the shelf leading to iron supply necessary to fuel phytoplankton growth. This study supports that Antarctic coastal polynyas may have a key role for polar ecosystems as biologically active areas throughout the season within the sea-ice region despite inter and intra-polynya differences in environmental conditions.

Southern Ocean pinnipeds provide bathymetric insights on the East Antarctic continental shelf

Poor coverage of the Antarctic continental shelf bathymetry impedes understanding the oceanographic processes affecting Antarctica’s role in global climate. Continental shelf bathymetry influences warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water movement onto the shelf, making it an important factor promoting ice shelf melting and influencing the flow of ice shelves into the ocean. Building on previous work using seal dives to redefine bathymetry, our longitudinal study of ocean physics and animal behaviour provided new depth information from over 500,000 individual seal dives on the East Antarctic continental shelf. About 25% of these seal dives were 220 m (sometimes over 1000 m) deeper than the interpolated seafloor from IBCSO V2. Focusing on four well-sampled regions, we show that the bathymetry of 22% to 60% of the sampled area was improved by incorporating seal dive data. This revealed new bathymetric features, including troughs off the Shackleton Ice Shelf and Underwood Glacier and a deep canyon near the Vanderford Glacier. This deep canyon, the Mirounga-Nuyina Canyon, was confirmed by a recent multi-beam echo sounder survey. Further acquisitions of seal data will improve our understanding and modelling of Antarctic coastal ocean processes and ice-sheet dynamics.

Sources and Pathways of Glacial Meltwater in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica

AbstractMeltwater content and pathways determine the impact of Antarctica's melting ice shelves on ocean circulation and climate. Using ocean glider observations, we quantify meltwater distribution and transport within the Bellingshausen Sea's Belgica Trough. Meltwater is present at different densities and with different turbidities: both are indicative of a layer's ice shelf of origin. To investigate how ice‐shelf origin separates meltwater into different export pathways, we compare these observations with high‐resolution tracer‐release model simulations. Meltwater filaments branch off the Antarctic Coastal Current into the southwestern trough. Meltwater also enters the Belgica Trough in the northwest via an extended western pathway, hence the greater observed southward (0.50 mSv) than northward (0.17 mSv) meltwater transport. Together, the observations and simulations reveal meltwater retention within a cyclonic in‐trough gyre, which has the potential to promote climactically important feedbacks on circulation and future melting.

Can rifts alter ocean dynamics beneath ice shelves?

Abstract. Land ice discharge from the Antarctic continent into the ocean is restrained by ice shelves, floating extensions of grounded ice that buttress the glacier outflow. The ongoing thinning of these ice shelves – largely due to enhanced melting at their base in response to global warming – is known to accelerate the release of glacier meltwater into the world oceans, augmenting global sea level. Mechanisms of ocean heat intrusion under the ice base are therefore crucial to project the future of Antarctic ice shelves. Furthermore, ice shelves are weakened by the presence of kilometer-wide full-thickness ice rifts, which are observed all around Antarctica. However, their impact on ocean circulation around and below ice shelves has been largely unexplored as ocean models are commonly characterized by resolutions that are too coarse to resolve their presence. Here, we apply the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model at high resolution to investigate the sensitivity of sub-shelf ocean dynamics and ice-shelf melting to the presence of a kilometer-wide rift in proximity of the ice front. We find that (a) the rift curtails water and heat intrusion beneath the ice-shelf base and (b) the basal melting of a rifted ice shelf is on average 20 % lower than for an intact ice shelf under identical forcing. Notably, we calculate a significant reduction in melting rates of up to 30 % near the grounding line of a rifted ice shelf. We therefore posit that rifts and their impact on the sub-shelf dynamics are important to consider in order to accurately reproduce and project pathways of heat intrusion into the ice-shelf cavity.

Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat

Warming of the ocean waters surrounding Greenland plays a major role in driving glacier retreat and the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise. The melt rate at the junction of the ocean with grounded ice-or grounding line-is, however, not well known. Here, we employ a time series of satellite radar interferometry data from the German TanDEM-X mission, the Italian COSMO-SkyMed constellation, and the Finnish ICEYE constellation to document the grounding line migration and basal melt rates of Petermann Glacier, a major marine-based glacier of Northwest Greenland. We find that the grounding line migrates at tidal frequencies over a kilometer-wide (2 to 6 km) grounding zone, which is one order of magnitude larger than expected for grounding lines on a rigid bed. The highest ice shelf melt rates are recorded within the grounding zone with values from 60 ± 13 to 80 ± 15 m/y along laterally confined channels. As the grounding line retreated by 3.8 km in 2016 to 2022, it carved a cavity about 204 m in height where melt rates increased from 40 ± 11 m/y in 2016 to 2019 to 60 ± 15 m/y in 2020 to 2021. In 2022, the cavity remained open during the entire tidal cycle. Such high melt rates concentrated in kilometer-wide grounding zones contrast with the traditional plume model of grounding line melt which predicts zero melt. High rates of simulated basal melting in grounded glacier ice in numerical models will increase the glacier sensitivity to ocean warming and potentially double projections of sea level rise.

Heat transport across the Antarctic Slope Front controlled by cross-slope salinity gradients.

The Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) is a strong gradient in water mass properties close to the Antarctic margins, separating warm water from the Antarctic ice sheet. Heat transport across the ASF is important to Earth's climate, as it influences melting of ice shelves, the formation of bottom water, and thus the global meridional overturning circulation. Previous studies based on relatively low-resolution global models have reported contradictory findings regarding the impact of additional meltwater on heat transport toward the Antarctic continental shelf: It remains unclear whether meltwater enhances shoreward heat transport, leading to a positive feedback, or further isolates the continental shelf from the open ocean. In this study, heat transport across the ASF is investigated using eddy- and tide-resolving, process-oriented simulations. It is found that freshening of the fresh coastal waters leads to increased shoreward heat flux, which implies a positive feedback in a warming climate: Increased meltwater will increase shoreward heat transport, causing further melt of ice shelves.

Projected Impacts of Antarctic Meltwater Anomalies over the Twenty-First Century

Abstract Antarctic margin and Southern Ocean surface freshening has been observed in recent decades and is projected to continue over the twenty-first century. Surface freshening due to precipitation and sea ice changes is represented in coupled climate models; however, Antarctic ice sheet/shelf meltwater contributions are not. Because Antarctic melting is projected to accelerate over the twenty-first century, this constitutes a fundamental shortcoming in present-day projections of high-latitude climate. Southern Ocean surface freshening has been shown to cause surface cooling by reducing both ocean convection and the entrainment of warm subsurface waters to the surface. Over the twenty-first century, Antarctic meltwater is expected to alter the pattern of projected surface warming as well as having other climatic effects. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in projected Antarctic meltwater amounts, and previous findings could be model dependent. Here, we use the ACCESS-ESM1.5 coupled model to investigate global climate responses to low and high Antarctic meltwater additions over the twenty-first century under a high-emissions climate scenario. Our high-meltwater simulations produce anomalous surface cooling, increased Antarctic sea ice, subsurface ocean warming, and hemispheric differences in precipitation. Our low-meltwater simulations suggest that the magnitude of surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice responses is strongly dependent on the applied meltwater amount. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of constraining projections of Antarctic ice sheet/shelf melt to better project global surface climate changes over the twenty-first century. Significance Statement Antarctic ice sheets and shelves are melting, adding meltwater to the Southern Ocean and changing the ocean circulation. Antarctic meltwater stratifies the upper ocean, resulting in cooling of the surface Southern Ocean but warming at depth that could accelerate ice shelf melting. Coupled climate models used to project twenty-first-century climate do not represent ice sheets or shelves, neglecting important climate impacts. Here we conduct meltwater simulations with a coupled climate model and find that the magnitude of climate responses is strongly dependent on the applied meltwater amount. This highlights 1) the importance of constraining Antarctic meltwater projections to better project global climate over the twenty-first century and 2) that it is important that Antarctic meltwater be represented in future-generation coupled climate models.

The drainage of glacier and ice sheet surface lakes

Supraglacial lakes play a central role in storing melt water, enhancing surface melt and ultimately in driving ice flow and ice shelf melt through injecting water into the subglacial environment and through facilitating fracturing. Here, we develop a model for the drainage of supraglacial lakes through the dissipation-driven incision of a surface channel. The model consists of the St Venant equations for flow in the channel, fed by an upstream lake reservoir, coupled with an equation for the evolution of channel elevation due to advection, uplift and downward melting. After reduction to a ‘stream power’-type hyperbolic model, we show that lake drainage occurs above a critical rate of water supply to the lake due to the backward migration of a shock that incises the lake seal. The critical water supply rate depends on advection velocity and uplift (or more precisely, drawdown downstream of the lake) as well as model parameters such as channel wall roughness and the parameters defining the relationship between channel cross-section and wetted perimeter. Once lake drainage does occur, it can either continue until the lake is empty, or terminate early, leading to oscillatory cycles of lake filling and draining, with the latter favoured by large lake volumes and relatively small water supply rates.

Sensitivity of simulated water mass transformation on the Antarctic shelf to tides, topography and model resolution

Water mass transformation (WMT) around the Antarctic margin controls Antarctica Bottom Water formation and the abyssal limb of the global meridional overturning circulation, besides mediating ocean-ice shelf exchange, ice sheet stability and its contribution to sea level rise. However, the mechanisms controlling the rate of WMT in the Antarctic shelf are poorly understood due to the lack of observations and the inability of climate models to simulate those mechanisms, in particular beneath the floating ice shelves. We used a circum-Antarctic ocean-ice shelf model to assess the contribution of surface fluxes, mixing, and ocean-ice shelf interaction to the WMT on the continental shelf. The salt budget dominates the WMT rates, with only a secondary contribution from the heat budget. Basal melt of ice shelves drives buoyancy gain at lighter density classes (27.2<σθ< 27.6 kg m-3), while salt input associated with sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas drives buoyancy loss at heavier densities (σθ> 27.6). We found a large sensitivity of the WMT rates to model horizontal resolution, tides and topography within the Filchner-Ronne, East and West Antarctica ice shelf cavities. In the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, an anticyclonic circulation in front of the Ronne Depression regulates the rates of basal melting/refreezing and WMT and is substantially affected by tides and model resolution. Model resolution is also found to affect the Antarctic Slope Current in both East and West Antarctica, impacting the on-shelf heat delivery, basal melt and WMT. Moreover, the representation of the ice shelf draft associated with model resolution impacts the freezing temperature and thus basal melt and WMT rates in the East Antarctica. These results highlight the importance of resolving small-scale features of the flow and topography, and to include the effects of tidal forcing, to adequately represent water mass transformations on the shelf that directly influence the abyssal global overturning circulation.

Eddy and tidal driven basal melting of the Totten and Moscow University ice shelves

The mass loss from the neighboring Totten and Moscow University ice shelves is accelerating and may raise global sea levels in coming centuries. Totten Glacier is mostly based on bedrock below sea level, and so is vulnerable to warm water intrusion reducing its ice shelf buttressing. The mechanisms driving the ocean forced sub-ice-shelf melting remains to be further explored. In this study, we simulate oceanic-driven ice shelf melting of the Totten (TIS) and Moscow University ice shelves (MUIS) using a high spatiotemporal resolution model that resolves both eddy and tidal processes. We selected the year 2014 as representative of the period 1992 to 2017 to investigate how basal melting varies on spatial and temporal scales. We apply the wavelet coherence method to investigate the interactions between the two ice shelves in time-frequency space and hence estimate the contributions from tidal (<1.5 days) and eddy (2-35 days) components of the ocean heat transport to the basal melting of each ice shelf. In our simulation, the 2014 mean basal melt rate for TIS is 6.7 m yr-1 (42 Gt yr-1) and 9.7 m yr-1 (52 Gt yr-1) for MUIS. We find high wavelet coherence in the eddy dominated frequency band between the two ice shelves over almost the whole year. The wavelet coherence along five transects across the ice shelves suggests that TIS basal melting is dominated by eddy processes, while MUIS basal melting is dominated by tidal processes. The eddy-dominated basal melt for TIS is probably due to the large and convoluted bathymetric gradients beneath the ice shelf, weakening higher frequency tidal mode transport. This illustrates the key role of accurate bathymetric data plays in simulating on-going and future evolution of these important ice shelves.

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

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