Melting Of Ice Shelves Research Articles

Accelerated Basal Melt Rates of Ice Shelves in North Greenland From 2013 to 2022 Estimated With the High‐Resolution ArcticDEM

AbstractBasal melting of ice shelves has become one of the main causes of mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet. However, most studies have focused on individual ice shelves, making it difficult to gain a more comprehensive understanding of basal melting across Greenland ice shelves. To address this issue, we utilized timestamped ArcticDEM strip data coregistered with ICESat‐2 data to estimate the basal melt rates of the ice shelves in North Greenland at a resolution of 150 m from 2013 to 2022, employing a mass conservation approach within the Lagrangian framework. Additionally, to investigate the influence of temperature on basal melt rates, a basic analysis correlating the basal melt rates with temperatures was conducted. Overall, the mass loss caused by basal melting of the six ice shelves has amounted to 27.86 ± 35.63 Gt yr−1, accounting for approximately 90% of the non‐calving mass loss, equivalent to a sea level rise of 0.08 ± 0.10 mm yr−1, far exceeding surface mass loss and glacier calving. The two larger ice shelves, Petermann and 79° North (79N), have contributed to 85% of the basal melt mass loss. Regarding the spatiotemporal distribution, the basal melt rates have gradually decreased from near the grounding line to the ice shelf front. Apart from the Ryder ice shelves, the basal melting of the other ice shelves is in a state of accelerated ablation. Moreover, compared to the skin temperature of the ice shelf, the sea water potential temperature has a greater impact on the basal melt rate.

A membrane inlet laser spectrometer for in situ measurement of triple water isotopologues

AbstractWe describe a novel compact autonomous in situ sensor for semi‐continuous measurement of water isotopes (δD, δ18O, and δ17O) in liquid water. The sensor relies on a dual‐inlet water vapor injection system based on the pervaporation through a semi‐permeable membrane, and on the water vapor composition analysis using a dedicated optical feedback cavity enhanced absorption spectrometer. The sensor has dimensions of 165 mm diameter and 550 mm long, for a weight of ∼ 8 kg. A titanium casing allows applications down to 6000 m deep for a total effective weight of 45 (23) kg in air (water). It has a power consumption of ∼ 40 W, and an autonomy of 10–12 h which is ensured by a dedicated Li‐ion battery pack. The sensor is equipped with single‐pair high‐speed digital subscriber line communication for telemetry purposes. The instrument provides an accuracy of 0.3‰ (2σ) for all water isotopes with a 9‐min integration time. The instrument is suitable for investigating the freshwater cycle in the ocean, and in particular the transformation of ocean water masses related to iceberg and ice shelf melting.

Diverse impacts of sea ice and ice shelf melting on phytoplankton communities in the Cosmonaut Sea, East Antarctica

Abstract Antarctic sea ice and glacier melt profoundly impacts marine ecosystems. Our study in the Cosmonaut Sea summer measures seawater oxygen isotopes, size-fractionated chlorophyll-a, and phytoplankton communities. We quantify sea ice meltwater, meteoric water, and winter water contents using a Bayesian isotope-mixing model. Contrary to common belief, our findings suggest that the reduced net export of sea ice to the north and the basal melting of ice shelves have deepened the mixed layer in coastal waters, altering the survival depth of phytoplankton. Freshwater primarily stimulates phytoplankton growth by supplying dissolved iron rather than by increasing water stability, which influences the size distribution and species composition of the phytoplankton community. These insights highlight the complex interplay between freshwater inputs, nutrient dynamics, and phytoplankton communities, and are crucial for understanding the dynamics of Antarctic ecosystem and its vulnerability to climate change.

Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations

Abstract. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss and therefore global sea level rise are hugely uncertain, partly due to how mass loss of the ice sheet occurs at the grounding line. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB), a vast region of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is thought to be particularly vulnerable to deglaciation under future climate warming scenarios. However, future projections of ice loss, driven by grounding-line migration, are known to be sensitive to the parameterization of ocean-induced basal melt of the floating ice shelves and, specifically, to the adjacent grounding line – termed grounding-line melt parameterizations (GLMPs). This study investigates future ice sheet dynamics in the WSB with respect to four GLMPs under both the upper and lower bounds of climate warming scenarios from the present to 2500, with different model resolutions, ice shelf melt parameterizations (ISMPs) and choices of sliding relationships. The variation in these GLMPs determines the distribution and the amount of melt applied in the finite-element assembly procedure on partially grounded elements (i.e. elements containing the grounding line). Our findings indicate that the GLMPs significantly affect both the trigger timings of tipping points and the overall magnitude of ice mass loss. We conclude that applying full melting to the partially grounded elements, which causes melting on the grounded side of the grounding line, should be avoided under all circumstances due to its poor numerical convergence and substantial overestimation of ice mass loss. We recommend preferring options that depend on the specific model context, by either (1) not applying any melt immediately adjacent to the grounding line or (2) employing a sub-element parameterization.

The case for a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION) in the Antarctic-Southern Ocean system

We are in a period of rapidly accelerating change across the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean, with land ice loss leading to sea level rise and multiple other climate impacts. The ice-ocean interactions that dominate the current ice loss signal are a key underdeveloped area of knowledge. The paucity of direct and continuous observations leads to high uncertainty in the glaciological, oceanographic and atmospheric fields required to constrain ice-ocean interactions, and there is a lack of standardised protocols for reconciling observations across different platforms and technologies and modelled outputs. Funding to support observational campaigns is under increasing pressure, including for long-term, internationally coordinated monitoring plans for the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean. In this Practice Bridge article, we outline research priorities highlighted by the international ice-ocean community and propose the development of a Framework for UnderStanding Ice-Ocean iNteractions (FUSION), using a combined observational-modelling approach, to address these issues. Finally, we propose an implementation plan for putting FUSION into practice by focusing first on an essential variable in ice-ocean interactions: ocean-driven ice shelf melt.

Antarctic ice-shelf meltwater outflows in satellite radar imagery: ground-truthing and basal channel observations

Abstract Ice shelves regulate the flow of the Antarctic ice sheet toward the ocean and its contribution to sea-level rise. Accurately monitoring the basal and surface melting of ice shelves is therefore essential for predicting the ice sheet's response to climatic warming. In this study, we utilize Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery combined with shipboard measurements of water temperature and salinity to investigate the presence of surficial meltwater plumes along the Antarctic coastline. Our approach reveals a strong correlation between areas of pronounced low radar backscatter extending from ice shelves and significant decreases in water temperature and salinity, suggesting meltwater-enriched ocean waters. We propose that the low radar backscatter signature of meltwater outflows is caused by stable stratification of the upper water column, driven by density contrasts from buoyant, low-salinity meltwater and surface current shear that reduce Bragg scattering waves. The resulting smooth water surfaces were observed adjacent to the surface expression of deep basal channels, documented in a helicopter survey along part of the Bellingshausen Sea ice edge. We present high-temporal resolution satellite radar as a tool for identifying meltwater release from beneath ice shelves, capable of all-weather, day-and-night imaging.

A 3.3‐Million‐Year Record of Antarctic Iceberg Rafted Debris and Ice Sheet Evolution Quantified by Machine Learning

AbstractOver the last 3.3 million years, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has undergone phases of ice sheet growth and decay, impacting sea level and climate globally. Presently, the largely marine‐terminating AIS loses mass primarily by iceberg calving and basal melt of ice shelves. Quantifying past rates and timing of AIS melt is vital to understanding future cryosphere and sea level changes. One proxy for past ice sheet instabilities is iceberg rafted debris (IRD) fluxes. However, traditional methods of IRD quantification are labor‐intensive. Here, we present a new method of identifying IRD grains in sediment core X‐ray images using a convolutional neural network machine learning algorithm. We present a 3.3‐million‐year record of AIS IRD melt events using sediment cores from International Ocean Discovery Program Sites U1536, U1537, and U1538 in the Southern Ocean's “Iceberg Alley.” We identify two increases in the IRD fluxes throughout this period, at ∼1.8 and 0.43 Ma. We propose that after 1.8 Ma, the AIS expanded and transitioned from a primarily terrestrial‐terminating to a primarily marine‐terminating ice sheet. Therefore, after 1.8 Ma, glacial terminations and AIS iceberg discharge are associated with variations in global ice volume, presumably through the mechanism of sea level and, therefore, grounding line change. The second AIS regime change occurs during the Mid‐Brunhes Event (∼0.43 Ma). After this time, there are heightened and continuous IRD fluxes at each glacial termination, indicating increased AIS size and instability after this time.

Swirls and scoops: Ice base melt revealed by multibeam imagery of an Antarctic ice shelf.

Knowledge gaps about how the ocean melts Antarctica's ice shelves, borne from a lack of observations, lead to large uncertainties in sea level predictions. Using high-resolution maps of the underside of Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, we reveal the imprint that ice shelf basal melting leaves on the ice. Convection and intermittent warm water intrusions form widespread terraced features through slow melting in quiescent areas, while shear-driven turbulence rapidly melts smooth, eroded topographies in outflow areas, as well as enigmatic teardrop-shaped indentations that result from boundary-layer flow rotation. Full-thickness ice fractures, with bases modified by basal melting and convective processes, are observed throughout the area. This new wealth of processes, all active under a single ice shelf, must be considered to accurately predict future Antarctic ice shelf melt.

Turbulent Ice–Ocean Boundary Layers in the Well-Mixed Regime: Insights from Direct Numerical Simulations

Abstract The meltwater mixing line (MML) model provides a theoretical prediction of near-ice water mass properties that is useful to compare with observations. If oceanographic measurements reported in a temperature–salinity diagram overlap with the MML prediction, then it is usually concluded that the local dynamics are dominated by the turbulent mixing of an ambient water mass with near-ice meltwater. While the MML model is consistent with numerous observations, it is built on an assumption that is difficult to test with field measurements, especially near the ice boundary, namely, that the effective (turbulent and molecular) salt and temperature diffusivities are equal. In this paper, this assumption is tested via direct numerical simulations of a canonical model for externally forced ice–ocean boundary layers in a uniform ambient. We focus on the well-mixed regime by considering an ambient temperature close to freezing and run the simulations until a statistical steady state is reached. The results validate the assumption of equal effective diffusivities across most of the boundary layer. Importantly, the validity of the MML model implies a linear correlation between the mean salinity and temperature profiles normal to the interface that can be leveraged to construct a reduced ice–ocean boundary layer model based on a single scalar variable called thermal driving. We demonstrate that the bulk dynamics predicted by the reduced thermal driving model are in good agreement with the bulk dynamics predicted by the full temperature–salinity model. Then, we show how the results from the thermal driving model can be used to estimate the interfacial heat and salt fluxes and the melt rate. Significance Statement We investigate the turbulent dynamics and thermodynamical properties of water masses below ice shelves using new data from high-resolution simulations. This is important because there are currently too few observations of ice–ocean boundary layer dynamics to construct reliable models of ice-shelf melting as a function of ocean conditions. Our results demonstrate that the turbulent diffusivities of salt and temperature are approximately equal in the well-mixed regime. This implies a linear correlation between the mean temperature and salinity profiles, consistent with the meltwater mixing line prediction that is often used to interpret polar observations. We take advantage of this correlation to propose a reduced model of ice–ocean boundary layers that can predict ice-shelf melt rates at relatively low computational cost.

Toward Parameterizing Eddy-Mediated Transport of Warm Deep Water across the Weddell Sea Continental Slope

Abstract The transport of warm deep water (WDW) onto the Weddell Sea continental shelf is associated with heat flux and strongly contributes to the melting of Antarctic ice shelves. The small radius of deformation at high latitudes makes it difficult to accurately represent the eddy-driven component of onshore WDW transport in coarse-resolution ocean models so that parameterization becomes necessary. The Gent and McWilliams/Redi (GM/Redi) scheme was designed to parameterize mesoscale eddies in the open ocean. Here, it is assessed to what extent the GM/Redi scheme can generate a realistic transport of WDW across the Weddell Sea continental slope. To this end, the eddy parameterization is applied to a coarse-resolution idealized model of the Weddell Sea continental shelf and slope, and its performance is evaluated against a high-resolution reference simulation. With the GM/Redi parameterization applied, the coarse model simulates a shoreward WDW transport with a heat transport that matches the high-resolution reference and both the hydrographic mean fields and the mean slopes of the isopycnals are improved. A successful application of the GM/Redi parameterization is only possible by reducing the GM diffusivity over the continental slope by an order of magnitude compared to the open ocean value to account for the eddy-suppressing effect of the topographic slope. When the influence of topography on the GM diffusivity is neglected, the coarse model with the parameterization either under- or overestimates the shoreward heat flux. These results motivate the incorporation of slope-aware eddy parameterizations into regional and global ocean models. Significance Statement Mesoscale eddies drive warm water across the continental slope and onto the continental shelf of the Weddell Sea, where it melts the adjacent Antarctic ice shelves. This process is not resolved in ocean models employing a coarse horizontal resolution akin to state-of-the-art climate models. This work addresses this issue by modifying and applying a well-established eddy parameterization to this specific case. The parameterization works particularly well when it accounts for the effect of sloping topography, over which eddy transports are weaker. We expect this modification also to be of benefit to regional and global models.

Cross-Shelf Exchange in Prograde Antarctic Troughs Driven by Offshore-Propagating Dense Water Eddies

Abstract This study examines the link between near-bottom outflows of dense water formed in Antarctic coastal polynyas and onshore intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) through prograde troughs cutting across the continental shelf. Numerical simulations show that the dense water outflow is primarily in the form of cyclonic eddies. The trough serves as a topographic guide that organizes the offshore-moving dense water eddies into a chain pattern. The offshore migration speed of the dense water eddies is similar to the velocity of the dense water offshore flow in the trough, which scaling analysis finds to be proportional to the reduced gravity of the dense water and the slope of the trough sidewalls and to be inversely proportional to the Coriolis parameter. Our model simulations indicate that, as these cyclonic dense water eddies move across the trough mouth into the deep ocean, they entrain CDW from offshore and carry CDW clockwise along their periphery into the trough. Subsequent cyclonic dense water eddies then entrain the intruding CDW further toward the coast along the trough. This process of recurring onshore entrainment of CDW by a topographically constrained chain of offshore-flowing dense water eddies is consistent with topographic hotspots of onshore intrusion of CDW around Antarctica identified by other studies. It can bring CDW from offshore to close to the coast and thus impact the heat flux into Antarctic coastal regions, affecting interactions among ocean, sea ice, and ice shelves. Significance Statement Troughs cutting across the Antarctic continental shelf are a major conduit for the transport of dense shelf water from coastal formation regions to the shelf break. This study describes a process in which clockwise-spinning eddies moving offshore in prograde troughs successively entrain filaments of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water from offshore across the entire shelf and into the coastal region. This eddy-induced transport provides a new understanding of the shelf edge exchange process identified in previous studies and a mechanism for further onshore intrusion of the warm Circumpolar Deep Water over parts of the Antarctic shelf. The resultant onshore heat flux could potentially bring a substantial amount of heat from offshore into the coastal region and thus affect ice–ocean interactions through melting sea ice and ice shelves.

The Response of Ross Sea Shelf Water Properties to Enhanced Amundsen Sea Ice Shelf Melting

AbstractIce shelves in the Amundsen Sea have experienced the most rapid melting in the Antarctic and are expected to accelerate throughout this century under climate warming. In this study, a high‐resolution ocean‐sea ice‐ice shelf model is employed to conduct sensitivity experiments to explore the effects of increasing melt rates of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves on hydrography, sea ice and ice shelf in the Ross Sea. The results indicate that the substantial inflow of meltwater significantly freshens the Ross Sea, inhibiting the formation and export of the Dense Shelf Water, the volume of which is reduced by 19%–33% on the shelf. Temperatures in the eastern and western Ross Sea exhibit different responses to the enhanced meltwater input. The freshening of the western Ross Sea weakens the mesoscale eddy activities which are efficient in carrying warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the shelf, leading to an average temperature decrease of 0.02–0.08°C. Conversely, in the eastern Ross Sea, there is a marked warming outside the shelf under increased meltwater, which results from zonal pressure gradients associated with the meltwater distributions. This consequently causes stronger on‐shelf heat transport and shows warming of 0.12–0.22°C on the eastern Ross Sea shelf. The narrow shelf in the eastern Ross Sea allows the warmer water to reach the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) front, resulting in an about 6%–9% increase in the RIS melting. These results suggest a possible mechanism for acceleration in the RIS melting in the future that is associated with enhanced meltwater inflow.

Subglacial Discharge Accelerates Dynamic Retreat of Aurora Subglacial Basin Outlet Glaciers, East Antarctica, Over the 21st Century

AbstractRecent studies have revealed the presence of a complex freshwater system underlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), a region of East Antarctica that contains ∼7 m of global sea level potential in ice mainly grounded below sea level. However, the impact that subglacial freshwater has on driving the evolution of the dynamic outlet glaciers that drain this basin has yet to be tested in a coupled ice sheet‐subglacial hydrology numerical modeling framework. Here, we project the evolution of the primary outlet glaciers draining the ASB (Moscow University Ice Shelf, Totten, Vanderford, and Adams Glaciers) in response to an evolving subglacial hydrology system and to ocean forcing through 2100, following low and high CMIP6 emission scenarios. By 2100, ice‐hydrology feedbacks enhance the ASB's 2100 sea level contribution by ∼30% (7.50–9.80 mm) in high emission scenarios and accelerate the retreat of Totten Glacier's main ice stream by 25 years. Ice‐hydrology feedbacks are particularly influential in the retreat of the Vanderford and Adams Glaciers, driving an additional 10 km of retreat in fully coupled simulations relative to uncoupled simulations. Hydrology‐driven ice shelf melt enhancements are the primary cause of domain‐wide mass loss in low emission scenarios, but are secondary to ice sheet frictional feedbacks under high emission scenarios. The results presented here demonstrate that ice‐subglacial hydrology interactions can significantly accelerate retreat of dynamic Antarctic glaciers and that future Antarctic sea level assessments that do not take these interactions into account might be severely underestimating Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Abstract. Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model configurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

A Predictive Theory for Heat Transport Into Ice Shelf Cavities

AbstractAntarctic ice shelves are losing mass at drastically different rates, primarily due to differing rates of oceanic heat supply to their bases. However, a generalized theory for the inflow of relatively warm water into ice shelf cavities is lacking. This study proposes such a theory based on a geostrophically constrained inflow, combined with a threshold bathymetric elevation, the Highest Unconnected isoBath (HUB), that obstructs warm water access to ice shelf grounding lines. This theory captures ∼ 90% of the variance in melt rates across a suite of idealized process‐oriented ocean/ice shelf simulations with quasi‐randomized geometries. Applied to observations of ice shelf geometries and offshore hydrography, the theory captures ∼80% of the variance in measured ice shelf melt rates. These findings provide a generalized theoretical framework for melt resulting from buoyancy‐driven warm water access to geometrically complex Antarctic ice shelf cavities.

Intrinsically Episodic Antarctic Shelf Intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water via Canyons

Abstract The structure of the Antarctic Slope Current at the continental shelf is crucial in governing the poleward transport of warm water. Canyons on the continental slope may provide a pathway for warm water to cross the slope current and intrude onto the continental shelf underneath ice shelves, which can increase rates of ice shelf melting, leading to reduced buttressing of ice shelves, accelerating glacial flow and hence increased sea level rise. Observations and modeling studies of the Antarctic Slope Current and cross-shelf warm water intrusions are limited, particularly in the East Antarctica region. To explore this topic, an idealized configuration of the Antarctic Slope Current is developed, using an eddy-resolving isopycnal model that emulates the dynamics and topography of the East Antarctic sector. Warm water intrusions via canyons are found to occur in discrete episodes of large onshore flow induced by eddies, even in the absence of any temporal variability in external forcings, demonstrating the intrinsic nature of these intrusions to the slope current system. Canyon width is found to play a key role in modulating cross-shelf exchanges; warm water transport through narrower canyons is more irregular than transport through wider canyons. The intrinsically episodic cross-shelf transport is found to be driven by feedbacks between wind energy input and eddy generation in the Antarctic Slope Current. Improved understanding of the intrinsic variability of warm water intrusions can help guide future observational and modeling studies in the analysis of eddy impacts on Antarctic shelf circulation.

Holocene paleoceanographic variability in Robertson Bay, Ross Sea, Antarctica: A marine record of ocean, ice sheet, and climate connectivity

Accelerating ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves in recent decades has implications for sea level rise and global overturning circulation. Here, we reconstruct oceanographic conditions at the confluence of the Ross Sea and the Southern Ocean by analyzing a multi-proxy Holocene marine sedimentary record collected from Robertson Bay. A ramped pyrolysis oxidation radiocarbon age-depth model provides a timeline for glacial behavior and oceanographic changes over the last 6700 years. The diatom assemblage, magnetic susceptibility, grain size, total organic carbon and nitrogen, trace elements, and bulk δ13C are used as proxies for changing ocean and glacial conditions, which we interpret in the context of modern oceanographic measurements.Our record shows evidence of persistent ice cover in the northwestern Ross Sea during the Antarctic mid-Holocene climate optimum (ca. 5 cal kyr BP). Based on this observation, we suggest that meltwater and iceberg discharge associated with ice sheet retreat in the Ross Sea region altered local oceanography during the mid-Holocene. The onset of modern style oceanographic conditions in Robertson Bay occurred at ca. 4 cal kyr BP. Stable late Holocene conditions in are punctuated by a period of enhanced polynya activity and upwelling of nutrient rich Circumpolar Deep Water ca. 0.8 cal kyr BP and an increase in the seasonal duration of sea ice after 0.7 cal kyr BP, during the Little Ice Age. The response of the marine environment in Robertson Bay to mid-Holocene ice sheet retreat and natural climate variability during the last millennium underscores the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice-ocean interface to projected changes in coming decades.

Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica

Abstract. Glaciers along the Amundsen Sea coastline in West Antarctica are dynamically adjusting to a change in ice-shelf mass balance that triggered their retreat and speed-up prior to the satellite era. In recent decades, the ice shelves have continued to thin, albeit at a decelerating rate, whilst ice discharge across the grounding lines has been observed to have increased by up to 100 % since the early 1990s. Here, the ongoing evolution of ice-shelf mass balance components is assessed in a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model that includes the Pine Island, Thwaites, Crosson, and Dotson ice shelves. For a range of idealized ocean-forcing scenarios, the combined evolution of ice-shelf geometry and basal-melt rates is simulated over a 200-year period. For all ice-shelf cavities, a reconfiguration of the 3D ocean circulation in response to changes in cavity geometry is found to cause significant and sustained changes in basal-melt rate, ranging from a 75 % decrease up to a 75 % increase near the grounding lines, irrespective of the far-field forcing. These previously unexplored feedbacks between changes in ice-shelf geometry, ocean circulation, and basal melting have a demonstrable impact on the net ice-shelf mass balance, including grounding-line discharge, at multi-decadal timescales. They should be considered in future projections of Antarctic mass loss alongside changes in ice-shelf melt due to anthropogenic trends in the ocean temperature and salinity.

Antarctic Slope Undercurrent and onshore heat transport driven by ice shelf melting.

Elevated ice shelf melt rates in West Antarctica have been attributed to transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf via bathymetric troughs. These inflows are supplied by an eastward, subsurface slope current (referred to as the Antarctic Slope Undercurrent) that opposes the westward momentum input from local winds and tides. Despite its importance to basal melt, the mechanism via which the undercurrent forms, and thus what controls the shoreward heat transport, remains unclear. In this study, the dynamics of the undercurrent are investigated using high-resolution process-oriented simulations with coupled ocean, sea ice, and ice shelf components. It is shown that the bathymetric steering of the undercurrent toward the ice shelf is driven by upwelling of meltwater within the ice shelf cavity. Increased basal melt therefore strengthens the undercurrent and enhances onshore CDW transport, which indicates a positive feedback that may accelerate future melt of ice shelves, potentially further destabilizing the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Amundsen Sea circulation controls bottom upwelling and Antarctic Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelf melting

The Pine Island and Thwaites Ice Shelves (PIIS/TIS) in the Amundsen Sea are melting rapidly and impacting global sea levels. The thermocline depth (TD) variability, the interface between cold Winter Water and warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW), at the PIIS/TIS front strongly correlates with basal melt rates, but the drivers of its interannual variability remain uncertain. Here, using an ocean model, we propose that the strength of the eastern Amundsen Sea on-shelf circulation primarily controls TD variability and consequent PIIS/TIS melt rates. The TD variability occurs because the on-shelf circulation meanders following the submarine glacial trough, creating vertical velocity through bottom Ekman dynamics. We suggest that a strong or weak ocean circulation, possibly linked to remote winds in the Bellingshausen Sea, generates corresponding changes in bottom Ekman convergence, which modulates mCDW upwelling and TD variability. We show that interannual variability of off-shelf zonal winds has a minor effect on ocean heat intrusion into PIIS/TIS cavities, contrary to the widely accepted concept.