Ice Shelf Melt Rates Research Articles

Interactions between Increasing CO2 and Antarctic Melt Rates

AbstractMeltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet is expected to increase the sea ice extent. However, such an expansion may be moderated by sea ice decline associated with global warming. Here we investigate the relative balance of these two processes through experiments using HadGEM3-GC3.1 and compare these to two standard idealized CMIP6 experiments. Our results show that the decline in sea ice projected under scenarios of increasing CO2may be inhibited by simultaneously increasing melt fluxes. We find that Antarctic Bottom Water formation, projected to decline as CO2increases, is likely to decline further with an increasing meltwater flux. In our simulations, the response of the westerly wind jet to increasing CO2is enhanced when the meltwater flux increases, resulting in a stronger peak wind stress than is found when either CO2or melt rates increase exclusively. We find that the sensitivity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to increasing melt fluxes in the Southern Ocean is countered by increasing CO2, removing or reducing a feedback mechanism that may otherwise allow more heat to be transported to the polar regions and drive increasing ice shelf melt rates. The insights presented here and in a companion paper (which focuses on the effect of increasing melt fluxes under preindustrial forcings) provide insights helpful to the interpretation of both future climate projections and sensitivity studies into the effect of increasing melt fluxes from the Antarctic ice sheet when different forcing scenarios are used.

Multidecadal Basal Melt Rates and Structure of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using Airborne Ice Penetrating Radar

AbstractBasal melting of ice shelves is a major source of mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In situ measurements of ice shelf basal melt rates are sparse, while the more extensive estimates from satellite altimetry require precise information about firn density and characteristics of near‐surface layers. We describe a novel method for estimating multidecadal basal melt rates using airborne ice penetrating radar data acquired during a 3‐year survey of the Ross Ice Shelf. These data revealed an ice column with distinct upper and lower units whose thicknesses change as ice flows from the grounding line toward the ice front. We interpret the lower unit as continental meteoric ice that has flowed across the grounding line and the upper unit as ice formed from snowfall onto the relatively flat ice shelf. We used the ice thickness difference and strain‐induced thickness change of the lower unit between the survey lines, combined with ice velocities, to derive basal melt rates averaged over one to six decades. Our results are similar to satellite laser altimetry estimates for the period 2003–2009, suggesting that the Ross Ice Shelf melt rates have been fairly stable for several decades. We identify five sites of elevated basal melt rates, in the range 0.5–2 m a−1, near the ice shelf front. These hot spots indicate pathways into the sub‐ice‐shelf ocean cavity for warm seawater, likely a combination of summer‐warmed Antarctic Surface Water and modified Circumpolar Deep Water, and are potential areas of ice shelf weakening if the ocean warms.

Pathways of ocean heat towards Pine Island and Thwaites grounding lines

In the Amundsen Sea, modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) intrudes into ice shelf cavities, causing high ice shelf melting near the ice sheet grounding lines, accelerating ice flow, and controlling the pace of future Antarctic contributions to global sea level. The pathways of mCDW towards grounding lines are crucial as they directly control the heat reaching the ice. A realistic representation of mCDW circulation, however, remains challenging due to the sparsity of in-situ observations and the difficulty of ocean models to reproduce the available observations. In this study, we use an unprecedentedly high-resolution (200 m horizontal and 10 m vertical grid spacing) ocean model that resolves shelf-sea and sub-ice-shelf environments in qualitative agreement with existing observations during austral summer conditions. We demonstrate that the waters reaching the Pine Island and Thwaites grounding lines follow specific, topographically-constrained routes, all passing through a relatively small area located around 104°W and 74.3°S. The temporal and spatial variabilities of ice shelf melt rates are dominantly controlled by the sub-ice shelf ocean current. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate and high-resolution ocean bathymetry and subglacial topography for determining mCDW pathways and ice shelf melt rates.

UHF Radar Sounding of Polar Ice Sheets

In this letter, we report on the design, development, and field operation of a surface-based multi-channel ultrawideband (UWB) ultrahigh frequency (UHF) radar to measure ice thickness, basal conditions, and ice-shelf bottom melt rates. The radar concept is based on the recent success in sounding shallow low-loss ice (~1 km) and measuring the ice-shelf melt rates with a 600–900-MHz low-power radar, referred to as the accumulation radar. Our proposed radar system operates over the same frequency band, from 600 to 900 MHz, with a peak transmit power of 800 W. We used a large and lightweight 16 m $\times17$ m antenna array arranged in a Mills cross-configuration to obtain the required radar sensitivity to sound more than 3-km-thick ice and image the internal layers at a fine vertical resolution of about 60 cm. We used the system at the East Greenland Ice-coring Project (EGRIP) site in Summer 2018 to collect data over ~100 km of lines. We sounded about 2.8-km-thick ice with more than 40-dB signal-to-noise ratio and mapped the internal layers to a depth of almost 2.5 km. Our results show that an airborne or spaceborne radar operating at frequencies as high as 900 MHz with a large antenna array can be used to map large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Simulating or prescribing the influence of tides on the Amundsen Sea ice shelves

The representation of tides in regional ocean simulations of the Amundsen Sea enhances ice-shelf melting, with weakest effects for Pine Island and Thwaites (<+10%) and strongest effects for Dotson, Cosgrove and Abbot (>+30%). Tides increase vertical mixing throughout the water column along the continental shelf break. Diurnal tides induce topographically trapped vorticity waves along the continental shelf break, likely underpinning the tidal rectification (residual circulation) simulated in the Dotson–Getz Trough. However, the primary effect by which tides affect ice-shelf melting is the increase of ice/ocean exchanges, rather than the modification of water masses on the continental shelf. Tide-induced velocities strengthen turbulent heat fluxes at the ice/ocean interface, thereby increasing melt rates. Approximately a third of this effect is counterbalanced by the resulting release of cold melt water that reduces melt downstream along the meltwater flow. The relatively weak tide-induced melting underneath Pine Island and Thwaites could be partly related to their particularly thick water column, which limits the presence of quarter wavelength tidal resonance. No sensitivity to the position of Pine Island and Thwaites with respect to the M2 critical latitude is found. We refine and evaluate existing methodologies to prescribe the effect of tides on ice-shelf melt rates in ocean models that do not explicitely include tidal forcing. The best results are obtained by prescribing spatially-dependent tidal top-boundary-layer velocities in the melt equations. These velocities can be approximated as a linear function of existing barotropic tidal solutions. A correction factor needs to be applied to account for the additional melt-induced circulation associated with tides and to reproduce the relative importance of dynamical and thermodynamical processes.

Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

AbstractRecent studies suggest that the thickness of Winter Water (WW), that is, water with potential temperature below ∼−1°C located below Antarctic Surface Water and above Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is critical in determining the ice shelf melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). Existing model studies, however, misrepresent WW thickness and properties in the Amundsen Sea (AS). Here, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model in order to reproduce properties and thickness of WW and CDW close to observations, with significant improvement for WW compared to previous studies. The cost, which is defined as weighted model‐data difference squared, is reduced by 23%. Although a previous modeling study points out that the local surface heat loss upstream from Pine Island Polynya could be the reason for the observed 2012 PIG melt decline and WW thickening, they did not show WW freshening, which was observed at the same time. Model sensitivity experiments for surface heat loss, PIG melt rate, and precipitation fail to replicate WW freshening concurrent with PIG melt decline, implying that these processes cannot fully explain the observed PIG melt decrease.

Impact of ocean forcing on the Aurora Basin in the 21st and 22nd centuries

ABSTRACTThe grounded ice in the Totten and Dalton glaciers is an essential component of the buttressing for the marine-based Aurora basin, and hence their stability is important to the future rate of mass loss from East Antarctica. Totten and Vanderford glaciers are joined by a deep east-west running subglacial trench between the continental ice sheet and Law Dome, while a shallower trench links the Totten and Dalton glaciers. All three glaciers flow into the ocean close to the Antarctic circle and experience ocean-driven ice shelf melt rates comparable with the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We investigate this combination of trenches and ice shelves with the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model and ocean-forcing melt rates derived from two global climate models. We find that ice shelf ablation at a rate comparable with the present day is sufficient to cause widespread grounding line retreat in an east-west direction across Totten and Dalton glaciers, with projected future warming causing faster retreat. Meanwhile, southward retreat is limited by the shallower ocean facing slopes between the coast and the bulk of the Aurora sub-glacial trench. However the two climate models produce completely different future ice shelf basal melt rates in this region: HadCM3 drives increasing sub-ice shelf melting to ~2150, while ECHAM5 shows little or no increase in sub-ice shelf melting under the two greenhouse gas forcing scenarios.

Observed vulnerability of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf to wind-driven inflow of warm deep water.

The average rate of melting at the base of the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in the southern Weddell Sea is currently low, but projected to increase dramatically within the next century. In a model study, melt rates increase as changing ice conditions cause a redirection of a coastal current, bringing warm water of open ocean origin through the Filchner Depression and into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity. Here we present observations from near Filchner Ice Shelf and from the Filchner Depression, which show that pulses of warm water already arrive as far south as the ice front. This southward heat transport follows the eastern flank of the Filchner Depression and is found to be directly linked to the strength of a wind-driven coastal current. Our observations emphasize the potential sensitivity of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf melt rates to changes in wind forcing.

Impact of local winter cooling on the melt of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica

AbstractThe rapid thinning of the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea is generally attributed to basal melt driven by warm water originating from the continental slope. We examine the hypothesis that processes taking place on the continental shelf contribute significantly to the interannual variability of the ocean heat content and ice shelf melt rates. A numerical model is used to simulate the circulation of ocean heat and the melt of the ice shelves over the period 2006–2013. The fine model grid (grid spacing 1.5 km) explicitly resolves the coastal polynyas and mesoscale processes. The ocean heat content of the eastern continental shelf exhibits recurrent decreases around September with a magnitude that varies from year to year. The heat loss is primarily caused by surface heat fluxes along the eastern shore in areas of low ice concentration (polynyas). The cold winter water intrudes underneath the ice shelves and reduces the basal melt rates. Ocean temperatures upstream (i.e., at the shelf break) are largely constant over the year and cannot account for the cold events. The cooling is particularly marked in 2012 and its effect on the ocean heat content remains visible over the following years. The study suggests that ocean‐atmosphere interactions in coastal polynyas contribute to the interannual variability of the melt of Pine Island Glacier.

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

Environmental controls of marine productivity hot spots around Antarctica

AbstractAntarctic coastal polynyas are biologically rich ecosystems that support large populations of mammals and birds and are globally significant sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide. To support local phytoplankton blooms, these highly productive ecosystems require a large input of iron (Fe), the sources of which are poorly known. Here we assess the relative importance of six different environmental factors in controlling the amount of phytoplankton biomass and rates of net primary production (NPP) in 46 coastal polynyas around Antarctica. Data presented here suggest that melting ice shelves are a primary supplier of Fe to coastal polynyas, with basal melt rates explaining 59% of the between‐polynya variance in mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration. In a multiple regression analysis, which explained 78% of the variance in chlorophyll a (Chl a) between polynyas, basal melt rate explained twice as much of the variance as the next most important variable. Fe upwelled from sediments, which is partly controlled by continental shelf width, was also important in some polynyas. Of secondary importance to phytoplankton abundance and NPP were sea surface temperature and polynya size. Surprisingly, differences in light availability and the length of the open water season explained little or none of the variance in either Chl a or NPP between polynyas. If the productivity of coastal polynyas is indeed sensitive to the release of Fe from melting ice shelves, future changes in ice shelf melt rates could dramatically influence Antarctic coastal ecosystems and the ability of continental shelf waters to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Estimation of Ice Shelf Melt Rate in the Presence of a Thermohaline Staircase

AbstractDiffusive convection–favorable thermohaline staircases are observed directly beneath George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica. A thermohaline staircase is one of the most pronounced manifestations of double-diffusive convection. Cooling and freshening of the ocean by melting ice produces cool, freshwater above the warmer, saltier water, the water mass distribution favorable to a type of double-diffusive convection known as diffusive convection. While the vertical distribution of water masses can be susceptible to diffusive convection, none of the observations beneath ice shelves so far have shown signals of this process and its effect on melting ice shelves is uncertain. The melt rate of ice shelves is commonly estimated using a parameterization based on a three-equation model, which assumes a fully developed, unstratified turbulent flow over hydraulically smooth surfaces. These prerequisites are clearly not met in the presence of a thermohaline staircase. The basal melt rate is estimated by applying an existing heat flux parameterization for diffusive convection in conjunction with the measurements of oceanic conditions at one site beneath George VI Ice Shelf. These estimates yield a possible range of melt rates between 0.1 and 1.3 m yr−1, where the observed melt rate of this site is ~1.4 m yr−1. Limitations of the formulation and implications of diffusive convection beneath ice shelves are discussed.

Adaptation of an unstructured-mesh, finite-element ocean model to the simulation of ocean circulation beneath ice shelves

Several different classes of ocean model are capable of representing floating glacial ice shelves. We describe the incorporation of ice shelves into Fluidity-ICOM, a nonhydrostatic finite-element ocean model with the capacity to utilize meshes that are unstructured and adaptive in three dimensions. This geometric flexibility offers several advantages over previous approaches. The model represents melting and freezing on all ice-shelf surfaces including vertical faces, treats the ice shelf topography as continuous rather than stepped, and does not require any smoothing of the ice topography or any of the additional parameterisations of the ocean mixed layer used in isopycnal or z-coordinate models. The model can also represent a water column that decreases to zero thickness at the ‘grounding line’, where the floating ice shelf is joined to its tributary ice streams. The model is applied to idealised ice-shelf geometries in order to demonstrate these capabilities. In these simple experiments, arbitrarily coarsening the mesh outside the ice-shelf cavity has little effect on the ice-shelf melt rate, while the mesh resolution within the cavity is found to be highly influential. Smoothing the vertical ice front results in faster flow along the smoothed ice front, allowing greater exchange with the ocean than in simulations with a realistic ice front. A vanishing water-column thickness at the grounding line has little effect in the simulations studied. We also investigate the response of ice shelf basal melting to variations in deep water temperature in the presence of salt stratification.