Ice Sheet Model Research Articles

Simulating the Holocene deglaciation across a marine-terminating portion of southwestern Greenland in response to marine and atmospheric forcings

Abstract. Numerical simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over geologic timescales can greatly improve our knowledge of the critical factors driving GrIS demise during climatically warm periods, which has clear relevance for better predicting GrIS behavior over the upcoming centuries. To assess the fidelity of these modeling efforts, however, observational constraints of past ice sheet change are needed. Across southwestern Greenland, geologic records detail Holocene ice retreat across both terrestrial-based and marine-terminating environments, providing an ideal opportunity to rigorously benchmark model simulations against geologic reconstructions of ice sheet change. Here, we present regional ice sheet modeling results using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) of Holocene ice sheet history across an extensive fjord region in southwestern Greenland covering the landscape around the Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) glacier and extending outward along the 200 km Nuup Kangerula (Godthåbsfjord). Our simulations, forced by reconstructions of Holocene climate and recently implemented calving laws, assess the sensitivity of ice retreat across the KNS region to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. Our simulations reveal that the geologically reconstructed ice retreat across the terrestrial landscape in the study area was likely driven by fluctuations in surface mass balance in response to Early Holocene warming – and was likely not influenced significantly by the response of adjacent outlet glaciers to calving and ocean-induced melting. The impact of ice calving within fjords, however, plays a significant role by enhancing ice discharge at the terminus, leading to interior thinning up to the ice divide that is consistent with reconstructed magnitudes of Early Holocene ice thinning. Our results, benchmarked against geologic constraints of past ice-margin change, suggest that while calving did not strongly influence Holocene ice-margin migration across terrestrial portions of the KNS forefield, it strongly impacted regional mass loss. While these results imply that the implementation and resolution of ice calving in paleo-ice-flow models is important towards making more robust estimations of past ice mass change, they also illustrate the importance these processes have on contemporary and future long-term ice mass change across similar fjord-dominated regions of the GrIS.

Impact of runoff temporal distribution on ice dynamics

Abstract. Record highs of meltwater production at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet have been recorded with a high recurrence over the last decades. Those melt seasons with longer durations, larger intensities, or with both increased length and melt intensity have a direct impact on the surface mass balance of the ice sheet and on its contribution to sea level rise. Moreover, the surface melt also affects the ice dynamics through the meltwater lubrication feedback. It is still not clear how the meltwater lubrication feedback impacts the long-term ice velocities on the Greenland ice sheet. Here we take a modeling approach with simplified ice sheet geometry and climate forcings to investigate in more detail the impacts of the changing characteristics of the melt season on ice dynamics. We model the ice dynamics through the coupling of the Double Continuum (DoCo) subglacial hydrology model with a shallow shelf approximation for the ice dynamics in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM). The climate forcing is generated from the ERA5 dataset to allow the length and intensity of the melt season to be varied in a comparable range of values. Our simulations present different behaviors between the lower and higher part of the glacier, but overall, a longer melt season will yield a faster glacier for a given runoff value. However, an increase in the intensity of the melt season, even under increasing runoff, tends to reduce glacier velocities. Those results emphasize the complexity of the meltwater lubrication feedback and urge us to use subglacial drainage models with both inefficient and efficient drainage components to give an accurate assessment of its impact on the overall dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet.

Resolving glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to modern and future ice loss at marine grounding lines in West Antarctica

Abstract. Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ∼ 13 of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2 % for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.

Modeling the climate sensitivity of Patagonian glaciers and their responses to climatic change during the global last glacial maximum

Investigation of the behavior of the former ice sheet over Patagonia aids better understanding of ice-climate interactions and has important implications for deciphering how modern glaciers will respond to rapid increase in global temperature. Here, we use a 1-km resolution ice sheet model to identify the climate sensitivity of Patagonian glaciers and examine their responses to climatic change during the global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM). Our results demonstrate that the total glacier area increases by ∼78 × 103 km2 and the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) lowers by ∼163 m for every 1 °C of cooling under modern precipitation regime. Keeping temperature unchanged, there is an increase of total glacier area by ∼21 × 103 km2 and a ΔELA by ∼64 m for every doubling in precipitation. According to the multimodel ensemble mean of 21 PMIP models, an overall colder and drier climate prevails over Patagonia during the gLGM, with a decrease of annual mean temperature and precipitation by ∼4.7 °C and 12%, respectively. Under the modeled gLGM climate, there is an extensive ice sheet (∼387 × 103 km2) almost completely covering the Patagonian Andes, which results largely from the cooling with positive contribution from sea-level fall. The Patagonian ice sheet is drained by ice streams at the western margins and fast-flowing outlet glaciers to the east, with a north-to-south ice divide mainly extending the southern Patagonian Andes. Additionally, the erosion potential induced by the ice sheet exhibits a very strong localization over the fjords and valleys, resembling the pattern of ice velocity. The modeled ice sheet extent and ice flow pattern during the gLGM match well with the latest empirical reconstructions (though with spatial discrepancies), whereas the total ice volume is underestimated. However, the modeled Patagonian ice sheet exhibits high sensitivity to climatic forcing and the values of ice sheet model parameters used.

Evolution of ice sheets on early Mars with subglacial river systems

Geological observations have revealed that early Martian terrains were carved with by numerous networks of valleys, which provides evidence that prolonged water activity sculpted the ancient surface of Mars during the late Noachian and the early Hesperian ages. Although such geological records would in theory require a large volume of liquid water under a long-term stable “warm and wet” climate, several model studies have indicated a contrasting “cold and icy” climate in early Mars, such that the formation of large-scale ice sheets on highlands would provide a vast reservoir of meltwater. In this study, we developed a global ice sheet model, named ALICE (Accumulation and ablation of Large-scale ICE-sheets with dynamics and thermodynamics) to perform the first simulation of the evolution of ice sheets coupled with a paleo-Mars global climate model. We began our calculations of glacial formation from the initial state with the ocean water amount corresponding to a 500 m global equivalent layer (GEL) for “cool and wet” atmospheric conditions with a surface pressure of 2 bar, H2 mixing ratios of 0% and 3%, and obliquities of 20°, 40°, and 60°.Our results show that all the water of the ocean and lakes were transferred to ice sheets within ~105 Mars years, and extensive ice sheets (thousands of meters in thickness) were formed in the southern low to middle latitudes. When geothermal heat flux was suitably high and the atmosphere contained 3% of H2, continuous subglacial melting supplied enough water due to widespread temperate-based ice sheets, forming runoff systems in the southern highlands where most valley networks are observed. With an obliquity of 40°, meltwater carved early Martian terrains within a relatively brief geological timescale (~105 Mars years). We also revealed that CO2 only atmosphere (H2 mixing ratio of 0%) could not reproduce temperate-based ice sheets and subglacial erosions even with assumed higher geothermal heat fluxes. There is still a possibility that several valleys were produced by short-lived climatic warming events, such as volcanism and meteorite impacts, which could produce the vast amount of meltwater required to sculpt valley systems.

The importance of Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateways for glacial expansion in Scandinavia

The last glacial cycle began around 116,000 years before present during a period with low incoming solar radiation in Northern Hemisphere summer. Following the glacial inception in North America, the marine sediment record depicts a weakening of the high-latitude ocean overturning circulation and a multi-millennial eastward progression of glaciation across the North Atlantic basin. Modelling studies have shown that reduced solar radiation can initiate inception in North America and Siberia; however, the proximity to the temperate North Atlantic typically precludes ice growth in Scandinavia. Using a coupled Earth-system–ice-sheet model, we show that ice forming in North America may help facilitate glacial expansion in Scandinavia. As large coherent ice masses form and start filling the ocean gateways in the Canadian Archipelago, the transport of comparatively fresh North Pacific and Arctic water through the archipelago is diverted east of Greenland, resulting in a freshening of North Atlantic deep convection regions, sea-ice expansion and a substantial cooling that is sufficient to trigger glacial inception in Scandinavia. This mechanism may also help explain the Younger Dryas cold reversal and the rapid regrowth of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet following several warm events in the last glacial period.

Geomorphology and shallow sub-sea-floor structures underneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Abstract. The Ekström Ice Shelf is one of numerous small ice shelves that fringe the coastline of western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Reconstructions of past ice-sheet extent in this area are poorly constrained, due to a lack of geomorphological evidence. Here, we present a compilation of geophysical surveys in front of and beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf, to identify and interpret evidence of past ice-sheet flow, extent and retreat. The sea floor beneath the Ekström Ice Shelf is dominated by an incised trough, which extends from the modern-day grounding line onto the continental shelf. Our surveys show that mega-scale glacial lineations cover most of the mouth of this trough, terminating 11 km away from the continental shelf break, indicating the most recent minimal extent of grounded ice in this region. Beneath the front ∼30 km of the ice shelf measured from the ice shelf edge towards the inland direction, the sea floor is characterised by an acoustically transparent sedimentary unit, up to 45 m thick. This is likely composed of subglacial till, further corroborating the presence of past grounded ice cover. Further inland, the sea floor becomes rougher, interpreted as a transition from subglacial tills to a crystalline bedrock, corresponding to the outcrop of the volcanic Explora Wedge at the sea floor. Ice retreat in this region appears to have happened rapidly in the centre of the incised trough, evidenced by a lack of overprinting of the lineations at the trough mouth. At the margins of the trough uniformly spaced recessional moraines suggest ice retreated more gradually. We estimate the palaeo-ice thickness at the calving front around the Last Glacial Maximum to have been at least 305 to 320 m, based on the depth of iceberg ploughmarks within the trough and sea level reconstructions. Given the similarity of the numerous small ice shelves along the Dronning Maud Land coast, these findings are likely representative for other ice shelves in this region and provide essential boundary conditions for palaeo ice-sheet models in this severely understudied region.

Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the marine ice-cliff instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract. Owing to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyse the possible consequences using the parallel ice sheet model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice mélange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding-line retreat and triggers marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyse marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constrained parameter that determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound of the calving rate, which is given by the ice mélange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Because the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-mélange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Evidence for a more extensive Greenland Ice Sheet in southwestern Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract The maximum extent and elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in southwestern Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26–19.5 ka) is poorly constrained. Yet, the size of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the LGM helps to inform estimates of past ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change and provides benchmarks for ice-sheet modeling. Reconstructions of LGM ice extents vary between an inner continental shelf minimum, a mid-shelf position, and a maximum extent at the shelf break. We use three approaches to resolve LGM ice extent in the Sisimiut sector of southwestern Greenland. First, we explore the likelihood of minimum versus maximum Greenland Ice Sheet reconstructions using existing relative sea-level data. We use an empirical relationship between marine limit elevation and distance to LGM terminus established from other Northern Hemisphere Pleistocene ice sheets as context for interpreting marine limit data in southwestern Greenland. Our analysis supports a maximum regional Greenland Ice Sheet extent to the shelf break during the LGM. Second, we apply a simple 1-D crustal rebound model to simulate relative sea-level curves for contrasting ice-sheet sizes and compare these simulated curves with existing relative sea-level data. The only realistic ice-sheet configuration resulting in relative sea-level model-data fit suggests that the Greenland Ice Sheet terminated at the shelf break during the LGM. Lastly, we constrain the LGM ice-sheet thickness using cosmogenic 10Be, 26Al, and 14C exposure dating from two summit areas, one at 381 m above sea level at the coast, and another at 798 m asl 32 km inland. Twenty-four cosmogenic radionuclide measurements, combined with results of our first two approaches, reveal that our targeted summits were likely ice-covered during the LGM and became deglaciated at ca. 11.6 ka. Inventories of in situ 14C in bedrock at one summit point to a small degree of inherited 14C and suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet advanced to its maximum late Pleistocene extent at 17.1 ± 2.5 ka. Our results point to a configuration where the southwestern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet reached its maximum LGM extent at the continental shelf break.

Holocene melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet driven by tropical Pacific warming

The primary Antarctic contribution to modern sea-level rise is glacial discharge from the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The main processes responsible for ice mass loss include: (1) ocean-driven melting of ice shelves by upwelling of warm water onto the continental shelf; and (2) atmospheric-driven surface melting of glaciers along the Antarctic coast. Understanding the relative influence of these processes on glacial stability is imperative to predicting sea-level rise. Employing a beryllium isotope-based reconstruction of ice-shelf history, we demonstrate that glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment underwent melting and retreat between 9 and 6 thousand years ago. Despite warm ocean water influence, this melting event was mainly forced by atmospheric circulation changes over continental West Antarctica, linked via a Rossby wave train to tropical Pacific Ocean warming. This millennial-scale glacial history may be used to validate contemporary ice-sheet models and improve sea-level projections.

The role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in the marine-based collapse of the last Eurasian Ice Sheet

Information from former ice sheets may provide important context for understanding the response of today’s ice sheets to forcing mechanisms. Here we present a reconstruction of the last deglaciation of marine sectors of the Eurasian Ice Sheet, emphasising how the retreat of the Norwegian Channel and the Barents Sea ice streams led to separation of the British-Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets at c. 18.700 and of the Kara-Barents Sea-Svalbard and Fennoscandian ice sheets between 16.000 and 15.000 years ago. Combined with ice sheet modelling and palaeoceanographic data, our reconstruction shows that the deglaciation, from a peak volume of 20 m of sea-level rise equivalent, was mainly driven by temperature forced surface mass balance in the south, and by Nordic Seas oceanic conditions in the north. Our results highlight the nonlinearity in the response of an ice sheet to forcing and the significance of ocean-ice-atmosphere dynamics in assessing the fate of contemporary ice sheets.

Characteristic Depths, Fluxes, and Timescales for Greenland's Tidewater Glacier Fjords From Subglacial Discharge‐Driven Upwelling During Summer

AbstractGreenland's glacial fjords are a key bottleneck in the earth system, regulating exchange of heat, freshwater and nutrients between the ice sheet and ocean and hosting societally important fisheries. We combine recent bathymetric, atmospheric, and oceanographic data with a buoyant plume model to show that summer subglacial discharge from 136 tidewater glaciers, amounting to 0.02 Sv of freshwater, drives 0.6–1.6 Sv of upwelling. Bathymetric analysis suggests that this is sufficient to renew most major fjords within a single summer, and that these fjords provide a path to the continental shelf that is deeper than 200 m for two‐thirds of the glaciers. Our study provides a first pan‐Greenland inventory of tidewater glacier fjords and quantifies regional and ice sheet‐wide upwelling fluxes. This analysis provides important context for site‐specific studies and is a step toward implementing fjord‐scale heat, freshwater and nutrient fluxes in large‐scale ice sheet and climate models.

GREB-ISM v1.0: A coupled ice sheet model for the Globally Resolved Energy Balance model for global simulations on timescales of 100 kyr

Abstract. We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on timescales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v1.0). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land–sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (shallow ice approximation) and SSA (shallow shelf approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates like those observed for present-day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealized experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20, 50 and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow buildup and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to timescales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr d−1 on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myr) within 1 month.

Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup

Floating ice shelves buttress inland ice and curtail grounded-ice discharge. Climate warming causes melting and ultimately breakup of ice shelves, which could escalate ocean-bound ice discharge and thereby sea-level rise. Should ice shelves collapse, it is unclear whether they could recover, even if we meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use a numerical ice-sheet model to determine if Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland can recover from a future breakup. Our experiments suggest that post-breakup recovery of confined ice shelves like Petermann’s is unlikely, unless iceberg calving is greatly reduced. Ice discharge from Petermann Glacier also remains up to 40% higher than today, even if the ocean cools below present-day temperatures. If this behaviour is not unique for Petermann, continued near-future ocean warming may push the ice shelves protecting Earth’s polar ice sheets into a new retreated high-discharge state which may be exceedingly difficult to recover from.

Comparison of ice dynamics using full-Stokes and Blatter–Pattyn approximation: application to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

Abstract. Full-Stokes (FS) ice sheet models provide the most sophisticated formulation of ice sheet flow. However, their applicability is often limited due to the high computational demand and numerical challenges. To balance computational demand and accuracy, the so-called Blatter–Pattyn (BP) stress regime is frequently used. Here, we explore the dynamic consequences of using simplified approaches by solving FS and the BP stress regime applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. To ensure a consistent comparison, we use one single ice sheet model to run the simulations under identical numerical conditions. A sensitivity study to the horizontal grid resolution (from 12.8 to a resolution of 0.1 km) reveals that velocity differences between the FS and BP solution emerge below ∼ 1 km horizontal resolution and continuously increase with resolution. Over the majority of the modelling domain both models reveal similar surface velocity patterns. At the grounding line of the 79∘ North Glacier the simulations show considerable differences whereby the BP model overestimates ice discharge of up to 50 % compared to FS. A sensitivity study to the friction type reveals that differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law. Model differences are attributed to topographic variability and the basal drag, in which neglected stress terms in BP become important.

Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change

AbstractWe use two coupled climate models, GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4, to investigate the physical response of the Southern Ocean to changes in surface wind stress, Antarctic meltwater, and the combined forcing of the two in a pre‐industrial control simulation. The meltwater cools the ocean surface in all regions except the Weddell Sea, where the wind stress warms the near‐surface layer. The limited sensitivity of the Weddell Sea surface layer to the meltwater is due to the spatial distribution of the meltwater fluxes, regional bathymetry, and large‐scale circulation patterns. The meltwater forcing dominates the Antarctic shelf response and the models yield strikingly different responses along West Antarctica. The disagreement is attributable to the mean‐state representation and meltwater‐driven acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). In CM4, the meltwater is efficiently trapped on the shelf by a well resolved, strong, and accelerating ASC which isolates the West Antarctic shelf from warm offshore waters, leading to strong subsurface cooling. In ESM4, a weaker and diffuse ASC allows more meltwater to escape to the open ocean, the West Antarctic shelf does not become isolated, and instead strong subsurface warming occurs. The CM4 results suggest a possible negative feedback mechanism that acts to limit future melting, while the ESM4 results suggest a possible positive feedback mechanism that acts to accelerate melt. Our results demonstrate the strong influence the ASC has on governing changes along the shelf, highlighting the importance of coupling interactive ice sheet models to ocean models that can resolve these dynamical processes.

Thermal conductivity of polar firn

AbstractThe vast Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are covered by many tens of meters of polar firn, which is snow that is years to centuries old and has experienced significant metamorphism. Both ice-sheet modeling and decoding satellite data require knowledge of the thermal conductivity of polar firn with depth, yet direct measurements are not available for depths below the top several meters. We present the first direct measurements of the effective thermal conductivity of polar firn over depths down to 48 m. A custom guarded hot plate has been designed and constructed, and validation of this device using materials of known thermal conductivity is presented. Using the validated device, measurements were made on firn core samples spanning depths from 4 to 48 m from an undisturbed site near the South Pole, Antarctica. Results show that the thermal conductivity of polar firn at South Pole increases with depth and with density. The thermal conductivity of polar firn from the surface to 48 m depth is well-explained as a function of density by the relationship kfirn(ρ) = 0.144 e0.00308·ρ and as a function of depth by the relationship kfirn(z) = 0.536 e0.0144·z. The associated thermal diffusivities range from 19.0 to 28.5 m2 a-1.

Brief communication: Estimating the ice thickness of the Müller Ice Cap to support selection of a drill site

Abstract. The Müller Ice Cap will soon set the scene for a new drilling project. Therefore, ice thickness estimates are necessary for planning, since thickness measurements of the ice cap are sparse. Here, three models are presented and compared: (i) a simple Semi-Empirical Ice Thickness Model (SEITMo) based on an inversion of the shallow-ice approximation by the use of a single radar line in combination with the glacier outline, surface slope, and elevation; (ii) an iterative inverse method using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), and (iii) a velocity-based inversion of the shallow-ice approximation. The velocity-based inversion underestimates the ice thickness at the ice cap top, making the model less useful to aid in drill site selection, whereas PISM and the SEITMo mostly agree about a good drill site candidate. However, the new SEITMo is insensitive to mass balance, computationally fast, and provides as good fits as PISM.

Modelling evidence for late Eocene Antarctic glaciations

It is generally believed that a large scale Antarctic ice sheet formed at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (34.44-33.65 Ma). However, oxygen isotope excursions during the late Eocene (38-34 Ma) and geomorphic evidence of glacial erosion suggest that there were ephemeral continental scale glaciations before the Oi-1 event. Here, we investigate the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over a multi-million year timescale during the late Eocene up to the early Oligocene with the most recent estimates of carbon dioxide evolution over this time period and different bedrock elevation reconstructions. A novel ice sheet-climate modelling approach is applied where the Antarctic ice sheet model VUB-AISMPALEO is coupled to the emulated climate from HadSM3 using the coupler CLISEMv1.0. Our modelling results show that short-lived continental scale Antarctic glaciation might have occurred during the late Eocene when austral summer insolation reached a minimum in a narrow range of carbon dioxide concentrations. The Antarctic ice sheet first reached the coast in Prydz Bay and later in the Weddell Sea region, supporting the glaciomarine sediments dated prior to the EOT.

Net effect of ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice-sheet variability

Abstract. Benthic δ18O levels vary strongly during the warmer-than-modern early and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), suggesting a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). So far, however, realistic simulations of the Miocene AIS have been limited to equilibrium states under different CO2 levels and orbital settings. Earlier transient simulations lacked ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions and used a present-day rather than Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. Here, we quantify the effect of ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions, running the ice-sheet model IMAU-ICE using climate forcing from Miocene simulations by the general circulation model GENESIS. Utilising a recently developed matrix interpolation method enables us to interpolate the climate forcing based on CO2 levels (between 280 and 840 ppm), as well as varying ice-sheet configurations (between no ice and a large East Antarctic Ice Sheet). We furthermore implement recent reconstructions of Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. We find that the positive albedo–temperature feedback, partly compensated for by a negative feedback between ice volume and precipitation, increases hysteresis in the relation between CO2 and ice volume. Together, these ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions decrease the amplitude of Miocene AIS variability in idealised transient simulations. Forced by quasi-orbital 40 kyr forcing CO2 cycles, the ice volume variability reduces by 21 % when ice-sheet–atmosphere interactions are included compared to when forcing variability is only based on CO2 changes. Thereby, these interactions also diminish the contribution of AIS variability to benthic δ18O fluctuations. Evolving bedrock topography during the early and mid-Miocene also reduces ice volume variability by 10 % under equal 40 kyr cycles of atmosphere and ocean forcing.